#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
So, Berman will just see that Goodell upheld suspension based on the "fact" that Brady said he didn't talk to Jastremski about deflation when that was completely incorrect and is part of the record. THAT is part of the process, right?There is no Rev said:
Every communication is in front of Berman, including the entire appeal transcript, and roughly 250 exhibits (letters, policies, rulings, etc). Much of it has been linked in this thread, and it's being discussed in the posts immediately above yours.JeffLedbetter said:
The NFL used Jastremski's gauge to measure the intercepted ball three times--averaging 11.52 psi; the Logo gauge Walt Anderson had measured the other 11 balls at average 11.49nighthob said:
The Swan Boat analysis used this information to suggest that perhaps Walt Anderson was right--he had used the Logo gauge pregame, the Ideal Gas Law dropped psi 1.0--voila.
http://emailwagon.blogspot.com/2015/05/how-i-trashed-wells-report-from-swan.htmlsonsofsamhorn.net/topic/90555-dfg-shots-fired/page-39
geoduck no quahog said:
This is exactly what I always thought BB's press conference was implying: we fill 'em hot and they may "deflate" a little as they cool because, well the Ideal Gas Law, duh. (the tires "deflate" in cold weather). I actually thought that day the whole thing was explained by 1) Rogers in GB likes his balls full so he submits them topped up; sometimes they get through 2) Brady likes his on the low side so we submit them hot and sometimes they get through. End of story, right?
...or not.
Of course, I'm pretty well-versed in PV=nRT so I immediately jumped to that conclusion.
Totally agree with you.AB in DC said:
But we should realize that this is what Exponent DOES. They get paid to take often flimsy facts and wrap them with in-depth statistics and science analysis, to produce a convincing argument for their client. The whole point of the report is to distract readers from the poor data with detailed statistics and costly experiments with engineering test rigs.
And they've basically pulled many of us in -- arguing more about the statistics than about the data and the conclusions.
Mr. Goodell and Mr. Brady will most certainly be present on the two dates Judge Berman has decreed them to be. Won't he ask them questions and won't that then be "testimony"? If I've missed this answer sincere apologies.DrewDawg said:
Harry Hooper said:
Off topic, but 538 didn't exactly say anything worthwhile about this, as far as I can recall. And Ben Morris's truly bizarre attempt to invent a new form of two-way Bayesianism (The low fumble rate makes it more likely that they cheated, and the Wells report makes it more likely that the fumble rate really was an outlier) may have been the single dumbest thing to come out of this whole shitshow.
soxhop411 said:
And yet the only two articles I've seen on the front page of ESPN.com today were about a.) Jim Kelly's reaction to everything, and b.) Brady's email to an old friend about how he thinks he'll last in the league longer than Peyton. I really don't know why I keep looking at ESPN, but it's ridiculous that these are the stories they're pushing as the most important in light of everything else that's going on.
And if this saga isn't the focus of the next season of Serial, I'll be severely disappointed.
edit: ah, I see this was also on foxsports and discussed earlier. my bad.
Honestly, this should be checkmate. Roger Goodell is either blatantly lying or is so egregiously negligent to have made the finding in his 20 page decision that it should impeach his impartiality.Section30 said:
Edit Clarification: "Checkmate" as to Goodell's credibility in the court of public opinion; not checkmate in the federal court case.
Shelterdog said:
Wells' conclusions were justifiable on the face of them.
1) Two teams inflated balls to their desired psi before the game, using their own gauges
2) The balls were tested before the game (yeh, sure), and found to be very close to the desired psi's
3) One gauge at halftime consistently read .3 - .4 higher than the other. The other was very close to a "master gauge", meaning the other was accurate.
4) If the logo gauge (or whatever, I can't keep them straight) was used by Anderson, both gauges used by the teams prior to the game would have to have been equally off by .3-.4
5) That is highly unlikely
Logical conclusion, but no evidence to back it up.
A) There is no evidence to back it up, ANDgeoduck no quahog said:
B) Even if the Patriots, Colts, and/or refs recorded the temperature and pressure for their readings, the precision of the gauges doesn't even allow for such a conclusion. As MacKinnon points out, "The pressure was measured three times on [the ball intercepted by the Colts] and the numbers are 11.35, 11.45 and 11.75 psi."
http://wellsreportcontext.com/mackinnons-scientific-conclusion/
Apologies if these are all already up. It certainly feels like public sentiment is turning anti-Goodell with haste:
DC Sports Bog:
Jeb Lund in Rolling Stone:
Ratto:
DC Sports Bog:
Jeb Lund in Rolling Stone:
Ratto:
Again, in one of the 17,000 threads there was a link to a physicist who ran the formula in reverse, and if lower reading gage was used, then the Colts' balls weren't at 13 psi prior to the game. Meaning that the Colts were wrong about the pressure they inflated their balls to.geoduck no quahog said:
nighthob said:
If the logo gauge was used, the Patriots' balls were well within the expected range of the Ideal Gas Law. If the non-logo gauge was used, then the Colts should be facing suspensions and fines and the loss of draft picks, since their footballs, using that gauge, were also under 12.5 (measured both at halftime and after the game). And, as we know, being under 12.5 obviously is a sign that you did something wrong, or, as Kensil put it, you're in big f-ing trouble.
The NFL is trying to have it both ways, obviously. Whatever maintains the narrative that the Patriots are guilty and the Colts are innocent.
The national writers with any self-respect are starting to come around, leaving circus acts like the CHB, Volin, Felger and that whining clown sidekick of his left to talk about what they know in their gut. But make no mistake, the national tide is turning in Sally Jenkins' favor, and anyone with a modicum of intelligence is seeing Goodell for the truly twisted man that he is.
The transcript is a lot uglier for the NFL than Brady. And "a lot" is underselling it.
Logic is firmly on the Pats side. The NFL did nothing when the Vikes broke the rules on TV and Aaron Rodgers openly admitted to altering balls. Brady did not, in fact, have notice of the penalties. The penalties that he did have notice of applied to the team, and not him. Four games is way out of left field. Favre's penalty for not cooperating ($50k) was peanuts compared to the economic and football cost of even missing one game. What does the NFL have? Some bad texts between people not named Brady, none of which refer to deflating balls below the legal limit.
But the scary thing, to me, is that we are in labor law territory where "great deference" may carry the day. And the NFL has to convince only one person, not the public or a majority of the non-brain dead writers.
I don't think Richard Berman will want to do the wrong thing. I have no fear that he is in the NFL's pocket. But every litigator who has practiced for more than a year or so has seen judges make some very surprising decisions. Out of seemingly nowhere, they cling to one factor that the lawyers did not think was key. Or they just have a bias or a leaning -- intellectually, I mean -- that is wrong headed.
For that reason, I still hope Brady settles at a game with no admission, if that deal is made available. I care deeply about Tom's legacy but I think he will be belittled by haters no matter what the outcome, will make the HOF no matter what the outcome, and I would rather not take the risk that he gets the full four games. Despite what feels like a turning tide, I think that remains a very big risk.
The transcript is a lot uglier for the NFL than Brady. And "a lot" is underselling it.
Logic is firmly on the Pats side. The NFL did nothing when the Vikes broke the rules on TV and Aaron Rodgers openly admitted to altering balls. Brady did not, in fact, have notice of the penalties. The penalties that he did have notice of applied to the team, and not him. Four games is way out of left field. Favre's penalty for not cooperating ($50k) was peanuts compared to the economic and football cost of even missing one game. What does the NFL have? Some bad texts between people not named Brady, none of which refer to deflating balls below the legal limit.
But the scary thing, to me, is that we are in labor law territory where "great deference" may carry the day. And the NFL has to convince only one person, not the public or a majority of the non-brain dead writers.
I don't think Richard Berman will want to do the wrong thing. I have no fear that he is in the NFL's pocket. But every litigator who has practiced for more than a year or so has seen judges make some very surprising decisions. Out of seemingly nowhere, they cling to one factor that the lawyers did not think was key. Or they just have a bias or a leaning -- intellectually, I mean -- that is wrong headed.
For that reason, I still hope Brady settles at a game with no admission, if that deal is made available. I care deeply about Tom's legacy but I think he will be belittled by haters no matter what the outcome, will make the HOF no matter what the outcome, and I would rather not take the risk that he gets the full four games. Despite what feels like a turning tide, I think that remains a very big risk.
I'm still in amazement of how so many consider the texts to be a smoking gun (with TB holding it, on video, while manically laughing), and every part of their argument trickles down from that.
The texts are the A #1 jumping off point that many in the NYC metro area open with when discussing DFG
The texts are the A #1 jumping off point that many in the NYC metro area open with when discussing DFG
Wouldn't now be the team for Kraft to speak out about the team penalties? The media is on the right trail now, it's time to stoke those flames.
If I were Kraft I would either have a friendly voice in the media or just do it myself and come out and challenge the NFL to make their new system of measuring halftime PSI public.
That is the only slim, very slim, chance the Pats have. Push to have those halftime numbers released each week. It will prevent the NFL from only testing in favorable games and potentially exonerate the pats in front of more eyeballs.
Now feels like the time to strike
Naturally the NFL will just shift and say that they lost the draft picks for non cooperation. But Kraft can still change some of the dialogue here.
If I were Kraft I would either have a friendly voice in the media or just do it myself and come out and challenge the NFL to make their new system of measuring halftime PSI public.
That is the only slim, very slim, chance the Pats have. Push to have those halftime numbers released each week. It will prevent the NFL from only testing in favorable games and potentially exonerate the pats in front of more eyeballs.
Now feels like the time to strike
Naturally the NFL will just shift and say that they lost the draft picks for non cooperation. But Kraft can still change some of the dialogue here.
( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I think the team should strike AFTER the court case has been dealt with. That is, suppose Berman rules completely in Brady's favor, and even gets his gander up a little (judges are human, after all), and rips Goodell a new one, kind of like Tagliabue did ruling in Bountygate. If Berman comments that this entire thing has been a sham, then Kraft has the platform (at least the public platform, not a platform according to the CBA) to really press hard for a reversal of the team penalties.
But I don't see Berman doing that, and I still think Kraft has no recourse. Which, of course, is a total shame.
Harry Hooper said:
One hopes that Silver publishes on this now, because I am confident he does not actually wanted to be associated with the steaming pile of results-oriented junk that Exponent generated.
TheoShmeo said:
In all seriousness, what's the NFL's case for any penalties at all? In no particular order:
1. The NFL was warned about possible shenanigans by the Patriots. Ok, the radar is up.
2. Patriots' footballs were found to be below 12.5 when measured during the AFCCG. This confirms what the radar warning was all about. Oh boy, you're in big f-ing trouble. No clue about the Ideal Gas Law. None. Colts' footballs are explained away and not even worried about, since they weren't the target here.
3. The text fishing expedition produces a few weird texts between the jamokies, including the "deflator" text. Never mind that it took place long, long before the AFCCG, and completely out of context. Never mind that reading into peoples' texts when they use insider language is an exercise in divination.
4. Brady "hiding" evidence. Even though Wells himself said that Brady was incredibly cooperative the whole time, and even though he said he didn't need Brady's phone, Brady not producing the phone and even "destroying" it is used against him as evidence that he MUST be hiding something.
5. Brady's stated preference for 12.5. On record, and under oath, and in public statements, and in Wells' report, Brady's stated preference is for 12.5 psi. Somehow this is read to mean that he really means LOWER than 12.5, and moreover, that he purposefully wanted the jamokies to illegally deflate footballs post-inspection to get them to that level.
6. McNally's bathroom visit. He MUST have been deflating footballs in there! Surely he couldn't, you know, have been taking a leak before the game.
I mean, this is essentially the totality of the NFL's case. This is it. There is not a single piece of evidence that could remotely be considered "hard". The biggest piece of "hard" evidence is that the footballs were actually measured below 12.5. But then, two things: (1) it's fully explained by the laws of nature, and (2) the Colts' footballs were ALSO under 12.5, so why not go after THEM too? So the only hard piece of evidence is completely explained by natural law and Occam's Razor applies here - there's no reason at all to think the Patriots monkeyed with the footballs. The rest of the "evidence" is total innuendo, guesswork, divination, and assumption piled on assumption. Their case wouldn't stand a chance in hell in a courtroom, but as we all know, Goodell isn't exactly unbiased and fair.
I burst out laughing at just the headline:
There is no Rev said:
For other owners, that is the real thing to worry about here. I imagine a bunch of them figure the Pats probably deserved it, some figure it helps their teams so 'oh well', others might have concerns but ultimately want Commissioner to be strong. However, none of them want the player's association to win back a lot more power on discipline, I'd imagine...and it's just about inarguable that this case, based on these craptastic facts, are going to make that more likely now.
If there is any pressure that comes to bear on Goodell soon, I think it will be from owners worried about the implications for the labor negotiation/commissioner vs NFLPA issues, not sympathy for Pats or desire to 'do right' here
Non-lawyer question here: how possible is it that the court will find that the league's case is flimsy and the penalty excessive, but that under the CBA Goodell has the right to levy this punishment anyway? That would be my worry. That Goodell has effectively negotiated the right to conduct a sham hearing and hand down a biased, illogical punishment.
Apologies if this has been addressed. Hard to keep up with the speed of this thread.
Apologies if this has been addressed. Hard to keep up with the speed of this thread.
ivanvamp said:
GREAT summary. I had been thinking of doing the same, but this is way better than anything I would've come up with. This needs to be blasted all over the inter-nets.
This should be the result (Goodell shouldn't have the power he has), but I have no faith that the Players will stay united to fight it in the next negotiation. None.PedroKsBambino said:
Dehere said:
How possible? Absolutely possible.
The law grants great deference to negotiated CBAs and only through violating the stated processes and standard practices can a verdict be vacated. That is to say, he can even be demonstrably mistaken in his ruling, but unless it is shown that he violated the process (which gives him very broad authority) or behaved in a way that was biased or unfair, and still have it stand up in court.
ivanvamp said:
Matt Light, who i believe was in the negotiations of the last CBA, addressed this point. He said that during the negotiation the #1 thing Goodell cared about was retaining his power. Goodell made it clear from the start that no CBA will even be discussed if there were any proposed changes to the Commish's power.
That apparently wasn't the hill they were willing to die on, and they're paying for it now, well Patriots and a few others are anyways
There is no Rev said:
This to me is the most frustrating aspect of this entire episode. I get that's how the law works. But we have a system here whereby Goodell literally could levy any penalty he wants ("integrity of the game", and all), even if there is literally NO evidence that anything wrong occurred, but as long as he followed the CBA's process (which includes him having the right to be the prosecutor and arbiter and appellate judge, issuing rulings on his own decision!), the penalties will stand, *even when it is obvious that he was 100% wrong in his judgment*.
I get that this is how it is, and it must be this way for a reason, but holy crap it's infuriating.
NortheasternPJ said:
Interesting, I didn't know that. Thanks for the info. It sure has bit a bunch of players in the butt. I get why the owners might want this (a strong commissioner vs. the players), but I wonder if the Saints and Patriots are now rethinking this a little. I mean, the rules (as far as I understand it) don't even allow teams to appeal a penalty - there's no recourse for Kraft in all this. Why wouldn't they want SOME changes in the next CBA?
There is no Rev said:
And while this system is seemingly unfair, it's in everyone's best interest. Echoing the lawyers in the other thread: We have constructed our arbitration law such that it's nearly impossible to get judges to review fact finding. That's because if we allowed parties to sue based on facts, almost every party that loses an arbitration would take it to court. Which would render the whole arbitration process moot -- at that point the parties might as well just start in court. And we as a society have decided we want/like arbitration.
That being said, judges are smart people, and they are human. The best case here is that Berman sees through the NFL's flimflam and punishes Goodell for it, both in court and in the court of public opinion. A statement by Berman that Goodell was unfair and handled the whole process poorly would be damaging for Goodell professionally. And Goodell knows it. I'm crossing my fingers for that -- Goodell digs in and Berman calls him a liar and a bad manager publicly. Unlikely perhaps, but possible.
Edit: Remember, Goodell makes $40M per year. I'd argue that luck played a large role getting him in that position -- luck to be the son of a Senator, luck to be mentored by Tagliabue, luck to barely win the commissioner election over Levy. I think we'd all agree there are dozens if not hundreds of people that could do an equally good job - maybe less good on short-term outcome of contract negotiations, better on player discipline, but probably better on long-term stability of the sport. It makes me crazy when people say guys like Goodell deserve every penny because they work hard. He's in that position in part because of skill, but in part because of luck and circumstance.
What Kraft needs to do is get in the ear of national reporters to get them to hound the NFL about doing the PSI tests this year with trained outside personal, and all numbers made public. Get it so the science is out out there.( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
If the numbers come out the way we expect, he then just has to lean on the reporters to hound the NFL about it. Get some people to talk it up.
It's his only real recourse, and it only "may have" a slim chance of changing the penalties.
ivanvamp said:
I have hope that Judge Berman will see that the entire process is a sham.
The arbitrator's decision probably should have great deference, but not when the proceedings are essentially nothing more than a dog and pony show.
NortheasternPJ said:
This is true but it was never really a problem until the Saints bounty case where Goodell started his overreach. Last CBA the owners were crying poor and the players were more concerned with getting better health benefits for retired players and trying to get a fair percentage of the revenues. It looks crazy now, but at the time it didn't seem like a huge concession for the players. It's why I'm disappointed more players haven't spoken out about just the process. You can still think Brady is guilty and hate him but the way he's been treated could potentially happen to any of them at any time over even the most minor infraction. And that should scare them. B
Florio is CRUSHING this.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/06/ted-wells-independent-investigator-in-name-only/
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/08/06/ted-wells-independent-investigator-in-name-only/
I wonder if Jerry Jones is going to be so appreciative of Goodell once the NFLPA strips him of his powers with regards to player discipline.
Really though, it would be nice for an owner besides Kraft come out and recognize what a farce this has become and how the league as a whole will be affected.
Really though, it would be nice for an owner besides Kraft come out and recognize what a farce this has become and how the league as a whole will be affected.
MuppetAsteriskTalk said:
If the judge thinks that the penalty is arbitrary and/or capricious, which I think you can argue it is, I think the legal reasoning as to why it should not stand will flow from there. Much like Goodell's reasoning for suspending Brady flowed from his decision that Brady must have done something.
NortheasternPJ said:
Well, it was a totally rational decision and frankly I'm not sure it was a bad one (assuming they didn't much care about the powers of the commish and instead focused on increasing their percentage of the revenue pie). Sure it has bitten a few players in the ass, but that is the decided minority.
On the flipside if I am one of the owners why the fuck do I want Goodell's unlimited power to be a hill that the owners are willing to die on? It hasn't exactly worked to the benefit of the league in any of these cases, and I'd rather him strike a fair deal on the discipline stuff and take a harder line on the money.
Honestly it makes zero sense that the owners would rather have fewer dollars but allow Goodell to levy harsh penalties with little oversight or due process, but then again nothing about how the NFL owners think about Roger makes any sense.
Gambler7 said:
This too, from Florio:
(EDIT: Mods -thinking this belongs in the other thread. Please go ahead and move it if you agree.)
... And thanks for doing so!
edmunddantes said:
Wasn't the new protocol already written? There's no temperature or time record. Plus the footballs to be gauged will actually be removed from the game, meaning that there's no need for a timely gauging. The NFL can release the numbers publicly, but by manipulating the time of the gauging (late for any team but the pats) they can essentially produce whatever number they want. It's too late, the process is already faulty.
This is a bad turn of events for the NFL: the second time in a year that the Commissioner has become the focus of a controversy.nattysez said:
On one hand, perhaps this means Goodell settles just to put this thing to bed – something I think even the Irsays and Biscottis likely want at this point, given that every passing day makes their organizations look more and more like petty losers. On the other hand, what Goodell might be capable of if he feels backed into a corner worries me as a Patriots fan, even with the Berman edict to cool it.