#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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DennyDoyle'sBoil

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If I were a really impartial person trying to get to the truth here, what I would do is give this report to the company that Wells used and ask them to respond. And then I'd go back to AEI as necessary. And I would keep doing it until they either agreed or they each could concisely state the exact point of their disagreement so that I could make a judgment about which seemed more credible. Or, I would hire a third neutral.

These aren't disputes of fact. This isn't he said she said. This is science, and if the league was interested in the truth that's what it would do.
 

Gorton Fisherman

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I am truly curious how Felger, Mazz, and other members of the "CLEARLY, the Patriots cheated!" media contingent will deal with this AEI thing.  Given the at least nominally independent nature of AEI, their lack of any stake in the outcome of the investigation, and the study's publication in the country's "newspaper of record", it would seem to be hard for them to ignore the study altogether, or just lazily dismiss it out-of-hand like they pretty much did with the Patriots' own context report.  On the other hand, some of these people are so heavily invested in the "Patriots clearly cheated, Brady obviously knew, they should just admit wrongdoing and beg for forgiveness from Goodell" narrative that I don't see how they can just back down from it.  This AEI study may be an enormous shit sandwich for them to have to eat.
 
 

joe dokes

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Van Everyman said:
I appreciate that those of us who "rage against the machine" are easy to mock and all – and that pretty much every decision thus far has gone against the Patriots. But can we also cool it with the relentlessly dismissive and derisive tone towards anyone who hopes to change this narrative even a little? It's every bit as tiresome.

Plus there is still potentially quite a few chapters left in all this. Already you're seeing slow, steady march of credible reports and opinion pieces from the likes of Sally Jenkins and the NYT tearing the report to shreds. This is not seen as a particularly credible report. Should Brady's suspension be vacated entirely, it may not have any effect on those who see the Patriots as "cheaters" – but it would likely represent an even bigger stain on Goodell's leadership given the high profile nature of the situation than Bountygate.

For me, that would be a pretty big win.
 
 
The most important gain is Brady playing. And you are right about the stain on Goodell. But insofar as the patriots go, it would be "he couldn;t even catch them when he caught them red-handed."  I dont think the narrative will ever change to anything more favorable than, "There was contrasing evidence about deflation.............but since they cheated before and pushed the envelope so many other times, who really knows?"  (Unless the NFL sues Wells for fraud or something).  That said, I DONT CARE.
 
"So you a Patriots fans."
"yes."
"Even though they cheat."
"ESPECIALLY because they cheat."
 
Mortenson should lose his job, though.
 

PedroKsBambino

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
If I were a really impartial person trying to get to the truth here, what I would do is give this report to the company that Wells used and ask them to respond. And then I'd go back to AEI as necessary. And I would keep doing it until they either agreed or they each could concisely state the exact point of their disagreement so that I could make a judgment about which seemed more credible. Or, I would hire a third neutral.

These aren't disputes of fact. This isn't he said she said. This is science, and if the league was interested in the truth that's what it would do.
 
The league wouldn't even let its experts answer media questions about their own report, much less sophisticated analysis of it.   There is absolutely no doubt by this point (if not all along) that Goodell and Pash know the Wells report is a piece of crap, and thus they have every incentive NOT to allow the above to occur.

It's an interesting question whether they knew this was all baloney all along, or only have realized it as things have developed.  I would suspect the latter---I think with Goodell the problem is incompetence more than evil.
 

lambeau

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I now suspect Kraft in San Francisco didn't cave--he decided to go underground. Did one of his pals suggest it? AEI is funded by carefully hidden billionaires, and Devizier is right that it would be easy for the right donor to get them to do a study.
This is not to say that their work is not solid--the science will prevail; but the exquisite timing of the report's release, placement in the Times on a summer weekend ten days before the hearing, suggests an invisible hand behind this. Your move, Rog.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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dcmissle said:
There is your "new information", Roger. Hilarious.
 
I also find the top comment hilarious. What was that about horse & water? (Extra points for the dude's username):
 

remembertheagenda says:
So just ignore the guy that took the balls into the bathroom AFTER the balls were checked..
And the fact that the team fired the guys whose texts pretty much confirm the deliberate cheating.
And the fact that NONE of the Colts balls (even the ones they did measure) dropped significantly in PSI.
#Guilty
 

dcmissle

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If Kraft had any inking this was coming, he have likely slow walked an appeal to Goodell. It would have been worth it. A first and a fourth an awful price to pay.
 

dcmissle

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Another aspect of this. The NYT is not only influential in its own right it also is the home to ax grinders like Rhoden. It cannot plausibly be accused of having a pro Patriots agenda. This will resonate deeply, even in the heart of NY.
 

bankshot1

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The Sunday Op-ed page of the NY Times is still one of the most respected forums in this country. Whether the article can change public opinion is doubtful, as the masses don't read the Sunday NYT. But its possible this very public forum gets pundits to re-engage the discussion, in advance of the Brady-Goodell hearings.
 

ipol

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Among the comments below the Florio piece: "Doesn't matter. The fumbles proved they did it." Yeah, pretty sure the masses won't be over taxing themselves with things like thought.
 

Ed Hillel

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The number of "yeah, but what about the texts???" comments is simultaneously unsurprising, yet mind-blowing. If science suggests the footballs were not tampered with, then...wait for it...nobody tampered with the footballs. This is like people saying "but why did they buy ski masks 6 months ago???" about suspected bank robbers after finding out no money was actually taken from the bank. I weep for American education.
 

Sportsbstn

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At worst case this should be the end of Ted Wells ever doing an "independent report" for the NFL.  No way I could see them ever using him again.
 
At best case, Roger uses this as his lifeline to get out of this embarrassment before it goes to court and the he and the league office gets obliterated.
 

ipol

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Sportsbstn said:
At worst case this should be the end of Ted Wells ever doing an "independent report" for the NFL.  No way I could see them ever using him again.
 
At best case, Roger uses this as his lifeline to get out of this embarrassment before it goes to court and the he and the league office gets obliterated.
As to your best case - and knowing full well there's been far too many conspiracy theories kicked around already - is it beyond the realm to imagine the league office surreptitiously funding this newest report?
 

Eddie Jurak

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I'd like to see any media who take this AEI report seriously to start asking the NFL to produce the documentation behind the Wells report.  
 

TomTerrific

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The only downside of this report is that it may finally force Goodell to come to his senses and cut his losses. To wit, he should follow the strategy some here have said is his best, which is to put the hammer down on the Pats organization (check), and let Brady off with a light fine and some mealy-mouthed words that basically say "we suspect him but couldn't prove it". (yet to be done)
 
Yes, it's probably the best from a football standpoint, but a large part of me is invested in Brady dragging this into court, where I expect he would stand a pretty good chance of getting the same result.
 
Weighing against Goodell following the above strategy is a) how he justifies going against the report he commissioned (i.e., it's not just a question of "new information" when that information directly attacks the quality of the report he commissioned and paid for) and b) the prospect of people asking him what the logic was penalizing a group (the team) specifically exonerated in the report.
 
My money is on Rog doubling down--no reduction of Brady's suspension.
 

crystalline

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MentalDisabldLst said:
 
They said they don't have a financial incentive in the outcome of DeflateGate.  That doesn't mean the report wasn't paid for.
 
My read is that Brady and Kessler's PR team made a canny purchase here.  Doesn't mean the facts were garbled or distorted by AEI, just that they got AEI to put their time, normally spent on worthwhile things, towards this.
Holy crap. If Kessler and Brady did this, it is a baller move and it means they are not screwing around - they are going fully Machiavellian.

Which is great, from my perspective. Play PR hardball.

(Brady/Kessler would realize they can't win in the sports media. ESPN is like Pravda for the NFL and ESPN shapes the discussion. Seeding a legit report into the mainstream press is a brilliant end-around the sports media.)
 

brandonchristensen

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Yeah but a guy texted the word deflator during the spring.
 
I was watching Mr. Robot's pilot this week (great pilot, btw), and the main character has a monologue about the ills of society with one of them being 'people cheating'. It shows a series of images including Lance Armstrong and then TOM BRADY...I started raging and my wife is just like "I know you're a fan but..."
 
No buts. Fuck that.
 

Gorton Fisherman

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Can ESPN really get away with ignoring the existence of the AEI report on their TV "platform" (i.e. SportsCenter, and the gaggle of NFL-related "news" programs that they have) after a story about the report has been published in the Sunday freakin' New York Times?  I guess we'll see.  I think they're going to have to address it somehow.
 

twibnotes

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Eddie Jurak said:
I'd like to see any media who take this AEI report seriously to start asking the NFL to produce the documentation behind the Wells report.  
I'm still waiting for someone to push the NFL to address their problems with leaks. How has that not been a bigger story? Even if one believes the patriots cheated, there was a false narrative floated by NFL employees in the weeks leading up to its signature event. Really pathetic and somehow continues to be a non-story.
 

DJnVa

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Holy crap. If Kessler and Brady did this, it is a baller move and it means they are not screwing around - they are going fully Machiavellian.
 
 
AEI likely would have disclosed that info I would think.
 

Comfortably Lomb

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So how long until we get a "smoking gun" email leak out of the NFL office that shows higher-ups were simply out to get Brady and the Patriots? It just feels like something is going to drop on the NFL that is very ugly for them.
 

GBrushTWood

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Comfortably Lomb said:
So how long until we get a "smoking gun" email leak out of the NFL office that shows higher-ups were simply out to get Brady and the Patriots? It just feels like something is going to drop on the NFL that is very ugly for them.
 
If not with this story, then something FIFA/Sepp Blatter style in the next few years will. Goodell has pissed off too many people (and will continue to).
 

ipol

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Comfortably Lomb said:
So how long until we get a "smoking gun" email leak out of the NFL office that shows higher-ups were simply out to get Brady and the Patriots? It just feels like something is going to drop on the NFL that is very ugly for them.
Have there been previous leaks that have proven deleterious to the front office? Perhaps I'm jaded but I only remember the ones that have been harmful to the other side. Leaks through a check valve, as it were.
 

GBrushTWood

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One thing I haven't seen mentioned with the AEI report is their analysis of the difference in gauges used to measure the ball pressure. They go into some pretty expansive detail in the full report.
 
 
[SIZE=9pt]At halftime, 11 of the Patriots balls and only 4 of Colts balls were measured with both gauges. Unfortunately, the Logo gauge tends to give higher readings than the Non-Logo gauge (by about 0.4 PSI), and this has created some controversy. Anderson remembers that he used the Logo gauge before the game, but the Wells report, in a direct contradiction of that recollection, concludes that he used the Non- Logo gauge before the game. The Patriots have argued that this decision was crucial to the analysis and that the evidence of excessive deflation disappears if one assumes the Logo gauge was used. Wells, in a news conference after the report was released, has stated that his [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]report’s [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]results continue to hold and that [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]“[/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]it [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]doesn’t matter because regardless of which [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]gauges were used the scientific consultants addressed all of the permutations in their[/SIZE]



[SIZE=9pt]analysis” [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]([/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]Boston Globe [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]2015).[/SIZE][SIZE=8pt]2 [/SIZE]
[SIZE=9pt]This statement is factually incorrect. The Wells report neither provides evidence for every possible permutation of gauge use nor proves that [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]the report’s conclusions are independent of gauge use. If, as the Wells report asserts, Anderson’s [/SIZE][SIZE=9pt]recollection is unreliable, then it seems to logically follow that one way to perform a thorough analysis would be to address all four possible permutations of gauge use. [/SIZE]
 
They then proceed to go into a statistical model (looked like a t-test?) calculating the difference in measurements based on the 4 possible scenarios (1) Pats logo, Colts non-logo (2) Colts logo, Pats non logo (3) Pats & Colts logo (4) Pats & Colts non logo. From there, somebody smarter than I would need to interpret the data and findings. My head started hurting after reading the conclusions 3-4 times. I am definitely not smart enough to read that and make sense of it.
 
Worth sharing though.
 
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/On-the-Wells-report.pdf
 

dcmissle

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AEI likely would have disclosed that info I would think.
I don't know what promoted this effort, but it's a good thematic fit for the AEI, which views itself as the enemy of false orthodoxy driven by laziness and politics.

The guy who dropped the ball on this? SoSH's super-hero, Nate Silver who has the same self image and justifiably so (e.g. 2012 election analysis). 538 really soiled itself in its quick take on Wells, which even extended to the false fumbling rate narrative.
 

Ed Hillel

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dcmissle said:
I don't know what promoted this effort, but it's a good thematic fit for the AEI, which views itself as the enemy of false orthodoxy driven by laziness and politics.

The guy who dropped the ball on this? SoSH's super-hero, Nate Silver who has the same self image and justifiably so (e.g. 2012 election analysis). 538 really soiled itself in its quick take on Wells, which even extended to the false fumbling rate narrative.
 
Nate Silver has a new boss, the same one conveniently ignoring this story.
 
Check it out, though, Troy Aikman made millions selling restaurant shares: http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/13068386/troy-aikman-sells-wingstop-shares-1st-day-trading-makes-millions
 

RG33

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TomTerrific said:
The only downside of this report is that it may finally force Goodell to come to his senses and cut his losses. To wit, he should follow the strategy some here have said is his best, which is to put the hammer down on the Pats organization (check), and let Brady off with a light fine and some mealy-mouthed words that basically say "we suspect him but couldn't prove it". (yet to be done)
 
Yes, it's probably the best from a football standpoint, but a large part of me is invested in Brady dragging this into court, where I expect he would stand a pretty good chance of getting the same result.
 
Weighing against Goodell following the above strategy is a) how he justifies going against the report he commissioned (i.e., it's not just a question of "new information" when that information directly attacks the quality of the report he commissioned and paid for) and b) the prospect of people asking him what the logic was penalizing a group (the team) specifically exonerated in the report.
 
My money is on Rog doubling down--no reduction of Brady's suspension.
Vacating the suspension and giving Brady a "light fine" brings this to court. Brady/Kessler will accept nothing but a total clearing of Brady's name. Unlike Kraft/Patriots, they have nothing to lose and have avenues to expose this charade.
 

bankshot1

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Ed Hillel said:
 
Nate Silver has a new boss, the same one conveniently ignoring this story.
 
Check it out, though, Troy Aikman made millions selling restaurant shares: http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/13068386/troy-aikman-sells-wingstop-shares-1st-day-trading-makes-millions
Speaking of which, part of me (the part that enjoys schadenfreude wet dreams) would love to see Simmons re-emerge from his ESPN exile with an 30 on 30 piece on the Goodell shit-show of an independent investigation/abuse of power. Simmon's has access to the resources, writers, analysts, former players, production people to put together an entertaining yet educational editorial piece ripping the shit out of Goodell. Plus Simmmon's basically had his nuts clipped re Goodell, so he may have an axe to grind. All he needs is a national platform to skewer RG and come back big.
 
It'll never happen
 
 
 

TomTerrific

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Yeah, a Simmons retrospective with the right outcome would be terrific.

And responding to RGREELEYs response above, if you're right all the more reason for Goodell to double down. He can't possibly stomach the idea of letting Brady off scot free
 

garzooma

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TomTerrific said:
And responding to RGREELEYs response above, if you're right all the more reason for Goodell to double down. He can't possibly stomach the idea of letting Brady off scot free
 
Note that the Times article starts with AEI rubbing Goodell's nose in BountyGate.  Not likely to get him to remove the penalties.
 

snowmanny

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What's Goodell going to do? Say "my hand-picked investigator who billed us millions of dollars was completely off-base"?

I have no hope that Goodell is going remove any penalty. I have little hope that anyone but a few people will change their minds in the short run and I've resigned myself to the fact that stupid people are going to say stupid things. I do have some hope that over time many reasonably
intelligent people will in fact change their minds on this whole fiasco. I also have some hope that over time this whole fiasco will bite some people in the ass, whether it's Goodell or Wells or Mortenson or any one of a thousand others.

Edit: One of the reasons I maintain some level of hope is that 1) There are a lot of pretty smart Patriots fans; 2) Patriots fans are a pain in the ass and aren't ever going to let this go.
Edit2: 3) While the Patriots as cheaters narrative is appealing to many, the Goodell is an incompetent wushu-washy hypocritical idiot narrative is likewise always popular.
 

Gorton Fisherman

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I also wonder if this study will get any play in the national non-sports media after it is officially published in the NYT tomorrow. I'm guessing not, since the country and its short attention span has largely made up its mind about this "scandal" and moved on. Also the actual content of the AEI thing is super boring and has lots of maths and icky stuff like that. Still, I wonder... Meet the Press? CNN? What about Fox News? AEI is a generally conservative think tank; any chance that Murdoch, Ailes and the boys take up the cause? I generally don't have much use for Fox News, but if Hannity or O'Reilly went on an extended rant about the mendacity of the Wells report and those jack-booted thugs at the NFL (their offices are in NYC! 'Nuff said!) I may actually hold my nose and link to it.
 

garzooma

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Gorton Fisherman said:
 What about Fox News? AEI is a generally conservative think tank; any chance that Murdoch, Ailes and the boys take up the cause? I generally don't have much use for Fox News, but if Hannity or O'Reilly went on an extended rant about the mendacity of the Wells report and those jack-booted thugs at the NFL (their offices are in NYC! 'Nuff said!) I may actually hold my nose and link to it.
 
Fox Sports has published some good pieces.  No reason for them not to take some shots to distinguish themselves from ESPN.
 

lambeau

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https://www.aei.org/publication/the-saints-aint-sinners/
 
The same AEI authors (Kevin Hassett and Stan Veuger) argued in Bountygate in a report apparently submitted to Tagliabue (by Kessler?) that there was no evidence of on-field misconduct by players, whatever the inducements offered by coaches. Tagliabue accepted this line of reasoning in exonerating Vilma--no harm, no foul. Tagliabue ruling made a big deal over actual proven on-field misconduct versus off-field palaver.
 
 
Regarding the texts that seemingly implicate Tom, Tagliabue  addressed that  on pg. 21: "If one were to punish certain off-field talk in locker rooms...and elsewhere without applying a rigorous standard that separated
real threats...from rhetoric and exageration, it would open a field of inquiry that would lead nowhere." Does this constitute precedent?
 
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/Tagliabue-decision-bounty-appeal.pdf
 

Gorton Fisherman

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What about Fox News' corporate sibling, Fox Sports 1? That might make even more sense. They are a wannabe ESPN competitor, what better way to poke the WWL in the eye and try to get some attention then by throwing down against them on DeflateGate? I guess their ratings are terrible, and it might be a completely futile gesture, but what do they have to lose?
 

amarshal2

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Gorton Fisherman said:
What about Fox News' corporate sibling, Fox Sports 1? That might make even more sense. They are a wannabe ESPN competitor, what better way to poke the WWL in the eye and try to get some attention then by throwing down against them on DeflateGate? I guess their ratings are terrible, and it might be a completely futile gesture, but what do they have to lose?
What do they have to lose? They have the NFL playing nice with them to lose. Maybe one day they want to get a Thursday night game or access to something and the NFL decides to punish them and award it to a different partner.

There's a reason NOBODY at ESPN (who isn't the Pats beat writer) has said boo about this and it's not entirely incompetence.
 

Eddie Jurak

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lambeau said:
https://www.aei.org/publication/the-saints-aint-sinners/
 
The same AEI authors (Kevin Hassett and Stan Veuger) argued in Bountygate in a report apparently submitted to Tagliabue (by Kessler?) that there was no evidence of on-field misconduct by players, whatever the inducements offered by coaches. Tagliabue accepted this line of reasoning in exonerating Vilma--no harm, no foul. Tagliabue ruling made a big deal over actual proven on-field misconduct versus off-field palaver.
 
 
Regarding the texts that seemingly implicate Tom, Tagliabue  addressed that  on pg. 21: "If one were to punish certain off-field talk in locker rooms...and elsewhere without applying a rigorous standard that separated
real threats...from rhetoric and exageration, it would open a field of inquiry that would lead nowhere." Does this constitute precedent?
 
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/Tagliabue-decision-bounty-appeal.pdf
 
I'm sure it is an argument that Brady will make, and it is certainly a legitimate one.
 
But I fear that the only precedent that matters here is that Roger Goodell has clearly and definitively established that he is both an asshole and a buffoon.
 

Dan Murfman

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Gorton Fisherman said:
What about Fox News' corporate sibling, Fox Sports 1? That might make even more sense. They are a wannabe ESPN competitor, what better way to poke the WWL in the eye and try to get some attention then by throwing down against them on DeflateGate? I guess their ratings are terrible, and it might be a completely futile gesture, but what do they have to lose?
Yeah but Fox Sports 1 is owned by FOX. Why would they want to poke the NFL
 

Harry Hooper

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Eddie Jurak said:
 
I'm sure it is an argument that Brady will make, and it is certainly a legitimate one.
 
But I fear that the only precedent that matters here is that Roger Goodell has clearly and definitively established that he is both an asshole and a buffoon.
 
assfoon?  That kind of works.
 

geoduck no quahog

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snowmanny said:
What's Goodell going to do? Say "my hand-picked investigator who billed us millions of dollars was completely off-base"?

I have no hope that Goodell is going remove any penalty. I have little hope that anyone but a few people will change their minds in the short run and I've resigned myself to the fact that stupid people are going to say stupid things. I do have some hope that over time many reasonably
intelligent people will in fact change their minds on this whole fiasco. I also have some hope that over time this whole fiasco will bite some people in the ass, whether it's Goodell or Wells or Mortenson or any one of a thousand others.

Edit: One of the reasons I maintain some level of hope is that 1) There are a lot of pretty smart Patriots fans; 2) Patriots fans are a pain in the ass and aren't ever going to let this go.
Edit2: 3) While the Patriots as cheaters narrative is appealing to many, the Goodell is an incompetent wushu-washy hypocritical idiot narrative is likewise always popular.
 
Couldn't Goodell (NFL) sue Wells for malpractice?
 
Premise being that Goodell (NFL) based imposition of penalties on the accuracy and integrity of an unbiased report commissioned to an outside firm (Wells). Yet, under objective scrutiny, Wells appears not to have fulfilled the terms of their contract with the NFL and published a deeply flawed, technically incorrect, poorly researched and wrongly-concluded report, either intentionally or incompetently. Wells publicly embarrassed their employer (NFL) due to avoidable errors that could be classified as malpractice.
 

simplyeric

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Just for fun, here's the most positive spin I can muster for Kraft and for Goodell in particular:
In the owners meetings, Kraft isn't winning the day, but he basically says 'ok asshole, I have no recourse and my fellow owners aren't supporting me. So, I'm done fighting. Now what we need is a resolution. You know this penalty for Brady isn't going to make it through court. So, how do we protect the shield now? Here's how: we find a truly independent group, basically out of left field, to debunk the Wells Report. You look at that report and say 'ok, I think sometging went wrong, and I'm going to reduce or even eliminate the Brady suspension, but I'll fine, and the Pats will lose only a 3rd round pick.' Let's make this happen Roger. You know you're gonna lose.'
Other owners grudgingly admit the the case won't stand up in court, and that there's a lot of downside to that.
Roger says 'fine, make it happen. I'll see the new analysis and be very wise and just with my revised opinion. I might need vacate all of Brady's penalties. I'll smell like a genius!'

Kraft walks out and says 'I have confidence in Goodell' or whatever it was.



No, I don't actually think this is what happened, but it's an entertaining thought.
 

bankshot1

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Do the two other impacted parties of the "deeply flawed" Wells report, Needle-Dum and Needle Dee, have a reasonable chance of successfully suing the NFL and the Pats for damages, using the NFL's reliance on the deeply flawed report, and a report a highly paid legal team should have known was less than objective, as central to their case?
 

ipol

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Jul 16, 2005
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The Dirty Mo'
bankshot1 said:
Do the two other impacted parties of the "deeply flawed" Wells report, Needle-Dum and Needle Dee, have a reasonable chance of successfully suing the NFL and the Pats for damages, using the NFL's reliance on the deeply flawed report, and a report a highly paid legal team should have known was less than objective, as central to their case?
No. They spoke of using their influence in order to receive ill gotten goods. This is important to remember.