Daniel Theis to Chicago for Mo Wagner

NomarsFool

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2018 Pre-Draft Scouting Report

"Wagner's obvious draw is his solid jump shot for a near 7-footer. He made 63 threes in 39 games and shot over 39 percent from that range for the second consecutive season. Wagner made 24 pick-and-pop jumpers, though he was even more efficient when rolling to the basket, making 18 of 22 attempts. He also showed the ability to attack closeouts and score on the move, having converted 14 of 22 drives to the hoop out of spot-ups. Wagner also did a nice job of timing his cuts to the basket and finishing (25-of-32).

Offensive weaknesses

Wagner only graded out in the 38th percentile in post-ups, as he struggled against physicality. He finished in the 37th percentile out of isolation. Playing 27.6 minutes per game, he totaled 33 assists. If his jumper isn't falling, it'll most likely be an ineffective performance from Wagner. It's also easy to question if his heavier feet will prevent him from beating defenders off the dribble or finishing at the rim.

Defensive outlook

Defense could be an issue. Wagner graded in the 27th percentile when guarding the post, where opponents easily scored through him and pushed him off his ground. He wasn't much better around the perimeter (36th percentile in spot-ups). Wagner will struggle with closeouts, and he seems unlikely to be switchable in pick-and-roll coverage.

Rookie-year projection

He could see minutes as a rookie just for his ability to stretch the floor. He'll help improve spacing and add a shot-maker to the frontcourt. He'll likely do a lot of spotting up and less post or inside work. And he won't be able to play long stretches due to his defense.

Projected role: Stretch-big reserve

Just as we saw with Kaminsky, Wagner's lack of athleticism and toughness down low will keep his ceiling in check. He won't be able to pull off some of the moves in the NBA we saw him execute in college. However, bigs who can shoot are always in demand. And though Kaminsky isn't a must-start player, he's bound to last just for his three-ball. Wagner can do the same while offering more intensity and competitiveness. "

Wizards Player Evaluations

"
Per our analytics guru, Kevin Broom, Wagner is an elite charge-drawer (I never heard this term before, but there it is). He led the league with 1.70 charges drawn per 48 minutes and was 4th in total charges drawn (27).

(Makes me think of another Wizards (#12 instead of #21) that took pride in that department until being shipped unceremoniously to Phoenix by Ernie and Tommy. I’m not saying Wagner will be traded, but it does seem likely.)

Wagner can also shoot from deep although his accuracy in the NBA hasn’t matched what he did in college.

At Michigan he averaged better than 39% on threes in his sophomore and junior years. But then his accuracy (and volume) took a hit in the NBA: about 28% in his first season, and 31% this past year (both years on 1.8 attempts/game). This is an improvement, but still far from NBA level for a player in his role (stretch 4 or backup 5).

But there are other positives in the shooting department. Wagner is a solid FT shooter at over 82% (for comparison, that’s better than Bradley Beal at the same point in his career). A lot of times, there is correlation between free throw shooting and three-point shooting, and Wagner is still young. Moreover, what I find impressive is that he improved his FT shooting in the NBA — he was a 70% FT shooter at Michigan. This does signify he is a hard worker, at least in my eyes.

When you look at Wagner’s FG% things look better: he’s shooting 54.5% compared to 41.5% in his rookie year.

Fouling, turnovers: the argument against
As the Wizards defense this year was historically bad, it may be harder to put in perspective the following stats, but they do raise red flags. According to Kevin Broom,

Fouling is a BIG issue with Wagner. He committed 8.5 fouls per 100 team possessions — 2nd most in the league among players with at least 500 minutes.
Turnovers are also a problem. He was at 3.7 per 100 team possessions, 8th highest in the league among players with at least 500 minutes.
I didn’t run the numbers when Wagner did not share the floor with IT, but it probably is worth doing to get a more effective measurement of just how much these issues are big.

Conclusion
Inconclusive.

It’s great Tommy Sheppard brought him here (and reportedly also for draft workouts in 2018) but it’s unfortunate his development has not been too visible.

Since Wagner has another year on his contract, I don’t see him going anywhere in the near future as his trade value has plummeted. But he could potentially be part of a larger draft day trade as his salary is non-negligible. There is no doubt in my mind that he can be a solid rotation NBA player, but I have also serious doubts he can develop to that role in D.C. given the limitations and focus of Brooks."

What is with German players and fouling? :)
 
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Ale Xander

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Teague out is addition by subtraction. Opens up 2 roster spots. Love it.
 

Koufax

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I guess that missed three last night was a problem.
 

lovegtm

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I'm not really going to bat for Teague but he's been better of late. I'm not sure he's all that much better than PP though so whatever.
No, I'm with you: Teague has been decent since that awful start. I'd just rather have the extra slot for a buyout guy, and also a little more PP.
 

Cesar Crespo

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No, I'm with you: Teague has been decent since that awful start. I'd just rather have the extra slot for a buyout guy, and also a little more PP.
He doesn't create one and apparently he's going in the Orlando deal.

Well, he doesn't create one on his own. It gets them to 17 though. Green would get them to 16 (14).
 

Cesar Crespo

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This trade also makes the Celtics pretty appealing to big men on the buyout market looking to increase their value.
I'm not sure it does. I think this is the C's handing the keys to Time Lord. I'd guess Wagner is their 3rd big for when they want a different look or garbage time.

If they could trade TT and get Drummond at the min, I'd be down. I don't want them adding another big without trading one of TT or TL though. The latter I'd expect a pretty good return.
 

Cellar-Door

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No, I'm with you: Teague has been decent since that awful start. I'd just rather have the extra slot for a buyout guy, and also a little more PP.
I'd rather have the extra slot and less PP honestly. Fournier and Smart should be splitting all of Teague's minutes, and some of PP's.
 

lovegtm

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I'm not sure it does. I think this is the C's handing the keys to Time Lord. I'd guess Wagner is their 3rd big for when they want a different look or garbage time.

If they could trade TT and get Drummond at the min, I'd be down. I don't want them adding another big without trading one of TT or TL though. The latter I'd expect a pretty good return.
If Aldridge is willing to come, I'd do it and figure out the minutes after.
 

lovegtm

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I'd rather have the extra slot and less PP honestly. Fournier and Smart should be splitting all of Teague's minutes, and some of PP's.
Kemba B2Bs, random injuries/rest, etc. Agree that Fournier and Smart will and should be getting the minutes when everyone's available.
 

The Raccoon

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I had a feeling this trade deadline could be the end of the road for my fellow german DT.
But they got one back, so that's nice...
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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As a very casual Celtics fan, I gotta say, I will miss Daniel Theis. Seemed like a pretty limited guy when he got here who then turned out to be a very useful player.
 

lovegtm

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Teague may have played better on offense but he was atrocious defensively.


Fournier + TT = Beal (salary wise).
Yeah, although you'd have to re-sign Fournier first, and I doubt he'd do it if he were getting shipped to Washington in the deal. Much more likely to be Smart headed to a 3rd team for assets (if this ever happened).
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I liked Theis, but I like unleashing TL more. I wonder how much Wagner is going to play. I'm guessing he'll be filling the Poirier bench warmer role for now.
 

TripleOT

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I didn’t know who Luke Kornet is. Apparently, he’s 7’2” and shoots 75% from two and 26% from three. Unfortunately, he takes only .3 shots from two per game and 1.8 shots from three.

He’a the rare NBA barely made the league player whose father was a barely made the league player, Frank Kornet. So he’s second Kornet.
 

Cellar-Door

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So Celtics get under the Tax, and get 2 easy to cut bigs to hold roster places while they wait on the buyout market.
 

Cellar-Door

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I didn’t know who Luke Kornet is. Apparently, he’s 7’2” and shoots 75% from two and 26% from three. Unfortunately, he takes only .3 shots from two per game and 1.8 shots from three.

He’a the rare NBA barely made the league player whose father was a barely made the league player, Frank Kornet. So he’s second Kornet.
He shot 36% from 3 in the lone year he really played. His career 3pt% is basically the same as Theis.
He's just a body though
 

bowiac

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Did the Celtics trade Theis to give more playing time to Tristan Thompson? What am I missing.
 

Spelunker

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Love it.

This forces Brad's hand to not play two bigs or to take away development time by playing Teague.
No way. This gives Brad a chance to unleash the updated Twin Towers formation: Tacko and Kornet. 14 '7 of terror.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Did the Celtics trade Theis to give more playing time to Tristan Thompson? What am I missing.
I think the idea was to get them under the tax, thought I haven't seen the numbers by anyone yet to confirm, and maybe give more playing time to Robert Williams.
 

lovegtm

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Did the Celtics trade Theis to give more playing time to Tristan Thompson? What am I missing.
They traded Theis to get under the tax, to give more time to TL, and because Theis can't bang with big guys in a few matchups as well as TT.

Trading TT instead of Theis also removes a lot of salary matching options in the summer.

This trade was about everything except relative performance of TT and Theis.