C's pick Aaron Nesmith #14 overall

ManicCompression

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A lot of it depends on role, too, though. Romeo came out of college as a guy who was the focal point of an offense. He always had the ball in his hands, he was a primary shot creator, and not much of an outside shooter. There's upside there, but his skills were never going to immediately translate to the NBA level, especially on a team like last year's Celtics where shot creation responsibilities fell to much better options. There was and will continue to be an adjustment for him to being an off-ball player and getting used to his fit in the Cs offense.

Nesmith's skills translate to a much more defined role. He just needs to shoot open 3s and attack the occasional closeout. From what I understand, that's what he did at college, so the learning curve won't be as steep. I'm way more bullish on Nesmith finding a groove as a rookie because the assignment will be simple for him and play to the things he already excels out (caveat being he'll need to be a plus on D like Romeo).
 

DJnVa

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You state that Nesmith is going to get a lot more run than Romeo did, but that is far from certain.
Yes. It is not certain. But I don't think saying Nesmith, who appears to fill a need for this team, unlike Langford last year, will get more than 370 minutes is a stretch.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Late lottery (picks 9-14) guys in the past 10 years to score more than 8 PPG for a playoff team in their rookie seasons: Shai, Donovan Mitchell, Myles Turner, Herro.

Bam, Paul George, Markief Morris and Alec Burks were all pretty close.

I very well could have missed a guy or two.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'll do it for you. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/langfro01.html

2.5 points on .350/.185/.720 shooting, 1.3 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks in 11.6 minutes. He was also constantly injured and is still 9 days younger than Nesmith. Apples and oranges. I get it though. That's why I said I'd be ecstatic with those results. I think expecting more is expecting absolute best possible outcome.
BTW the only reason Romeo was able to even get on the court given those offensive numbers was because of his defense. I posted an article last spring that talked about how some C staff members thought that RL was possibly the best on-ball defender the Cs had.

I think Brad had big plans for Romeo against the Heat defensively but that quickly went out the window.
 

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Last year, 21 rookies scored over 8 points a game. You can argue 3 don't qualify due to playing time. In 2018, 16 did.

2019: 21 (18)
2018: 16
2017: 20 (16)
2016: 13 (10)
2015: 9
2014: 11 (9)
2013: 7
2012: 11
2011: 12
2010: 8

It's not that rare.
I wonder what those numbers look like if you exclude the top 10 picks in each draft (he did say “the end of the lottery”),
 

Cellar-Door

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Late lottery (picks 9-14) guys in the past 10 years to score more than 8 PPG for a playoff team in their rookie seasons: Shai, Donovan Mitchell, Myles Turner, Herro.

Bam, Paul George, Markief Morris and Alec Burks were all pretty close.

I very well could have missed a guy or two.
Yeah, it's a short list, and that's being generous by going up to 9, which in most drafts is a different tier than 14.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah, it's a short list, and that's being generous by going up to 9, which in most drafts is a different tier than 14.

It really stood out eye-balling the data, just how common it is for guys who would go on to become really good to struggle to produce in their rookie seasons, particularly for decent teams. On the flip side, there were also a lot of guys who put up numbers for really bad teams- the MCWs, Mudiays,and Elfrid Paytons- then went on to very meh careers.

There's a steep learning curve;rookies are usually bad at playing winning basketball in the NBA. That's why I'm hesitant to write them off, even after a really bad season. There's a lot of very good players who had terrible starts to their careers.
 

Cellar-Door

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It really stood out eye-balling the data, just how common it is for guys who would go on to become really good to struggle to produce in their rookie seasons, particularly for decent teams. On the flip side, there were also a lot of guys who put up numbers for really bad teams- the MCWs, Mudiays,and Elfrid Paytons- then went on to very meh careers.

There's a steep learning curve;rookies are usually bad at playing winning basketball in the NBA. That's why I'm hesitant to write them off, even after a really bad season. There's a lot of very good players who had terrible starts to their careers.
yeah, I put almost no stock in rookie numbers outside of just freaks like Luka or something.
 

lovegtm

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Last year’s team had Marcus Smart coming off the bench. This year’s just started Javonte Green.

If Nesmith can shoot, he’s going to get a lot more minutes than Romeo did, and he’ll put up more points just because of the role, regardless of talent.

The Celtics are a weird good team, in that by necessity they’re going to be giving a ton more minutes to young guys than usual.
 

ManicCompression

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Thankfully we won't be the only team in that situation. Looking at the East, it seems like the only teams that are deeper than the Celtics are Hawks and Nets. Everyone has some real thin spots somewhere - Miami lost Crowder and DJJ and are really light on the wing, Milwaukee has nothing after their starting five, Toronto might be starting Chris Boucher at center, and Philly is relying on Shake Milton and Korcmaz to be their first guys off the bench.

It'll be a weird year for everyone in that unlikely players will get a lot of minutes. BS will put these guys in the right spots and I think a few of them, especially Nesmith, will deliver above our low expectations.
 

the moops

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Thankfully we won't be the only team in that situation. Looking at the East, it seems like the only teams that are deeper than the Celtics are Hawks and Nets. Everyone has some real thin spots somewhere - Miami lost Crowder and DJJ and are really light on the wing, Milwaukee has nothing after their starting five, Toronto might be starting Chris Boucher at center, and Philly is relying on Shake Milton and Korcmaz to be their first guys off the bench.
They replaced those two with Avery Bradley and Mo Harkless. Seems to be about an even swap there I think. They also will get more out of Iguodola this year.
 

Cellar-Door

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Last year’s team had Marcus Smart coming off the bench. This year’s just started Javonte Green.

If Nesmith can shoot, he’s going to get a lot more minutes than Romeo did, and he’ll put up more points just because of the role, regardless of talent.


The Celtics are a weird good team, in that by necessity they’re going to be giving a ton more minutes to young guys than usual.
I don't know that I agree with this in general. We started JaVonte Green for 2 reasons...
1. We had 4 guys out (RL, Kemba, Theis, TT)
2. He's a very good defender with experience.

That doesn't necessarily mean there are minutes for Nesmith for 2 reasons:
1. Guys will come back and shake down the rotation minutes
2. There is a long history of guys who are good defenders getting the bench minutes over bad ones on teams that have plenty of scoring.

I think everyone is drastically underrating the chances that Green gets a big chunk of the bench wing minutes until Langford is back at least if not longer. I don't think the wing depth is a place Brad is looking for offense first (nor should he given the guard and wing starters) he's looking for guys who will defend.

Nesmith's playing time is likely to be as dependent on his defense as his shooting, if he isn't a decent defender he'll sit a lot.
 

Jimbodandy

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It really stood out eye-balling the data, just how common it is for guys who would go on to become really good to struggle to produce in their rookie seasons, particularly for decent teams. On the flip side, there were also a lot of guys who put up numbers for really bad teams- the MCWs, Mudiays,and Elfrid Paytons- then went on to very meh careers.

There's a steep learning curve;rookies are usually bad at playing winning basketball in the NBA. That's why I'm hesitant to write them off, even after a really bad season. There's a lot of very good players who had terrible starts to their careers.
There's likely some correlation between players drafted lower going to better teams with developmental programs and veteran mentors. I'm not smart enough to find this, but I think that it's not an accident that teams like SAS and Toronto keep finding gems and kids getting 30mpg on crap teams as a top5 pick turn out to be pretty meh. Sure, scouting matters too. But bad teams typically do a lot of things badly and pick high again, meanwhile their picks get volume minutes and look better than they are (unless you look deeper at the analytics).
 

TripleOT

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Starting is a better spot for Javonte. He can pick up scraps on offense, and allows the defense total switchability, which could stifle the other team from the jump. He’s got to prove that he can hit the catch and shoot three, unless he can make a living getting to the rim off the swing of the ball as the defense recovers
 

DannyDarwinism

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Yeah, read that piece this morning, good stuff. It definitely jibes with my general observations from what I’ve seen from him in college, that although he’s a soft-spoken guy off the court, he’s a fiery competitor on it.

Nice to read about his relationship with Middleton. Seems like mentorship is something a lot of guys in the NBA take seriously.
 

benhogan

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lovegtm

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Yeah, JJ is a fun, very thoughtful guy whom a lot of other players seem to respect.

I hated him at Duke, but I'm a fan now. I also remember what I was like as a 20 year-old doing well in sports, and I can't imagine what a dick I'd have been with his 1000000x greater exposure in a much more popular sport.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Any early opinions on his play? Hard to really judge anything given most of the time was garbage time. He doesn't appear gun shy, anyway.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Any early opinions on his play? Hard to really judge anything given most of the time was garbage time. He doesn't appear gun shy, anyway.
The sidestep 3 was a thing of beauty. The two missed wide-open 3s were not.

He'll be fine on the offensive end. I think his rotations are okay though SSS alert. However, he really needs to be able to stay in front of people on the defensive end.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Since preseason, what's surprised me was that he's more than just a hang-out-in-the-corner-and-wait-for-the-pass type player on offense. He crashes the offensive boards and isn't afraid to take some shots in the paint, and he's definitely got a motor, moving around to try and get open. Hopefully he gets some more run so we can see more of his offense and he gets the reps he needs on defense.
 

slamminsammya

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I am not sure its a good thing but he does like hanging around the offensive glass. He looks smaller than I was expecting from the college clips, almost as if NBA players are bigger and stronger than college.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I am not sure its a good thing but he does like hanging around the offensive glass. He looks smaller than I was expecting from the college clips, almost as if NBA players are bigger and stronger than college.
(Hopefully) He'll look considerably bigger in a few years too. Most rookies look pretty small coming into the NBA. It's also why he's probably not seeing that much time this year and we shouldn't expect too much this season.

Muscle weight is one of those things that takes awhile to add even if you have an amazing work ethic. At least if you are doing it on the up and up.
 

lovegtm

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It's pretty obvious that the game is moving really fast for him on both ends right now. Even on offense, he doesn't know yet where he's going to be getting the ball or what he's supposed to be doing, and as a result his shots look uncomfortable.

On defense pretty much the same thing--you can see the gears churning in his head.

Physically it looks like he belongs, his shot is pretty, and he has little more to getting it off than just spotting up. That one 3 he made was damn impressive.

Overall pretty standard stuff for a rookie in terms of deer-in-the-headlights, same as every young Celtics wing who wasn't Tatum. I'm not too worried about that aspect improving.
 

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It's pretty obvious that the game is moving really fast for him on both ends right now. Even on offense, he doesn't know yet where he's going to be getting the ball or what he's supposed to be doing, and as a result his shots look uncomfortable.

On defense pretty much the same thing--you can see the gears churning in his head.

Physically it looks like he belongs, his shot is pretty, and he has little more to getting it off than just spotting up. That one 3 he made was damn impressive.

Overall pretty standard stuff for a rookie in terms of deer-in-the-headlights, same as every young Celtics wing who wasn't Tatum. I'm not too worried about that aspect improving.
This what I see too. He's not shy and doesn't mind sticking his nose in there. He's not Bambi lost, but the game is a touch too fast for him at both ends. Has an NBA body, but it's an NBA rookie's body.
 

128

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It's pretty obvious that the game is moving really fast for him on both ends right now. Even on offense, he doesn't know yet where he's going to be getting the ball or what he's supposed to be doing, and as a result his shots look uncomfortable.

On defense pretty much the same thing--you can see the gears churning in his head.

Physically it looks like he belongs, his shot is pretty, and he has little more to getting it off than just spotting up. That one 3 he made was damn impressive.

Overall pretty standard stuff for a rookie in terms of deer-in-the-headlights, same as every young Celtics wing who wasn't Tatum. I'm not too worried about that aspect improving.
The 3 he hit the other night was tougher than the ones he missed. I've been pleasantly surprised by how active he is on the court. It's not like you can forget he's out there.
 

DJnVa

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I know why they opted out, but he would do well for some G League time.
 

Cellar-Door

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I know why they opted out, but he would do well for some G League time.
I don't know if he would. The G-League is about developing skills more than anything, he isn't going to learn the defense any quicker there. Maybe you could run more offense through him to work on his handle, but I think learning NBA defense with the main club, and having to try and score on top-end NBA defenders in practice is more important to his development than G-League reps would be.
 

DJnVa

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I don't know if he would. The G-League is about developing skills more than anything, he isn't going to learn the defense any quicker there. Maybe you could run more offense through him to work on his handle, but I think learning NBA defense with the main club, and having to try and score on top-end NBA defenders in practice is more important to his development than G-League reps would be.
He just hasn't had much game time at all since his injury. I think he just needs to play. I don't mean all season, but just lots of game reps.

Either way, it's not happening, so...
 

DannyDarwinism

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He just hasn't had much game time at all since his injury. I think he just needs to play. I don't mean all season, but just lots of game reps.

Either way, it's not happening, so...
Yeah, his last college game was in early January. That’s a looong time for a young kid to not play any competitive ball. Hopefully he gets some mop up minutes tonight.
 

lovegtm

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Nesmith looked less lost on defense against Toronto. He started off with mistakes on the first couple possessions, and then had a lot of pretty competent/good possessions in terms of reads and communication. His athleticism and length look better than advertised.

Still looks incredibly hyped, rushed, and uncomfortable on offense.

I'm pretty optimistic now that he can get up to speed defensively quickly, which would at least give him a chance to work through the offensive issues.
 
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Imbricus

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He has the hyper energy of a high school JV player seeing his first action in a varsity game. Right now he makes me cringe a lot of the time -- he picked up three very quick fouls last night, and one of his three-point shots was a real clanger -- but I guess on the upside, we won't have to worry about him being accused of standing around like a slug. I'm a little disappointed that for an "absolute sniper" he so far seems to miss most of the shots he throws up, but he does have a nice shooting form, and he's playing on 98% nerves right now, so hard to tell what he looks like once he settles down.
 

lovegtm

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He has the hyper energy of a high school JV player seeing his first action in a varsity game. Right now he makes me cringe a lot of the time -- he picked up three very quick fouls last night, and one of his three-point shots was a real clanger -- but I guess on the upside, we won't have to worry about him being accused of standing around like a slug. I'm a little disappointed that for an "absolute sniper" he so far seems to miss most of the shots he throws up, but he does have a nice shooting form, and he's playing on 98% nerves right now, so hard to tell what he looks like once he settles down.
He’s taking shots out of the flow of the offense because he’s nervous and thinks he needs to be a sniper. If he just calms down, spaces the floor, and executes on D he’ll be fine.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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I didn't notice anything funky but I'm no guru. Does his form look off in the early going to anybody? What say you, SoSH?
I didn't notice anything specific about his mechanics being out of whack, but the game is clearly moving a bit too quickly for him. His draft profiles all touted his sound, repeatable mechanics as a huge plus for him and I think we're just seeing him pressing and trying to match Pritchard's contributions, or to come in and grab a spot as the shooter the Celtics sorely needed when they selected him.

It's WAY too early to write this kid off or be concerned about his play. Brad pointed out he hadn't played in an organized game in nearly a year, and he's had zero time to acclimate. What he's doing right is bringing energy on every play, cutting and relocating constantly, and crashing the boards - the defensive positioning and offensive production will improve as his minutes increase. I'm not worried at all.
 

lovegtm

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View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1346266879996940294?s=20

View: https://twitter.com/dangercart/status/1346267648779280391?s=20


I didn't notice anything funky but I'm no guru. Does his form look off in the early going to anybody? What say you, SoSH?
May as well let you all judge for yourselves. Here are his 3 jumpshots from the game:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=96&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 22' Pullup Jump Shot&sct=plot
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=96&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 22' Pullup Jump Shot&sct=plot
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=259&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 27' 3PT Jump Shot&sct=plot
On the first 2, he is rushed, and his legs splay out, way off balance.

On the third, Tatum does a good job forcing Nesmith's man to commit at the nail, and Nesmith takes the pass much more in rhythm and goes up with much better balance. He misses, but it was a much better miss.

The guy had extremely good mechanics in college, and still shows them when he's not pressing now. I'm fairly optimistic that he'll work it out to some degree.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Since preseason, what's surprised me was that he's more than just a hang-out-in-the-corner-and-wait-for-the-pass type player on offense. He crashes the offensive boards and isn't afraid to take some shots in the paint, and he's definitely got a motor, moving around to try and get open. Hopefully he gets some more run so we can see more of his offense and he gets the reps he needs on defense.
This was a staple of Nesmith’s game at Vandy. He had a little of that “Reggie Miller run behind 3 screens until the defense cracks and I can get a catch-and-shoot three” in him. Like I said about Pritchard.....it is so hard to predict how shooters translate to the NBA with the quickness and length of defenders. Some adapt and slow the game down while others simply cannot.
 

BigSoxFan

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May as well let you all judge for yourselves. Here are his 3 jumpshots from the game:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=96&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 22' Pullup Jump Shot&sct=plot
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=96&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 22' Pullup Jump Shot&sct=plot
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=259&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 27' 3PT Jump Shot&sct=plot
On the first 2, he is rushed, and his legs splay out, way off balance.

On the third, Tatum does a good job forcing Nesmith's man to commit at the nail, and Nesmith takes the pass much more in rhythm and goes up with much better balance. He misses, but it was a much better miss.

The guy had extremely good mechanics in college, and still shows them when he's not pressing now. I'm fairly optimistic that he'll work it out to some degree.
You have to love Tatum immediately giving a high five to Nesmith after the miss. Really good leadership there. No dejection.
 

lovegtm

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You have to love Tatum immediately giving a high five to Nesmith after the miss. Really good leadership there. No dejection.
Yup...also the process of that play was good from start to finish, including Nesmith executing his end without panicking.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yup...also the process of that play was good from start to finish, including Nesmith executing his end without panicking.
Agreed. Game is still moving way too fast for him, but there were signs that he's getting more comfortable. Getting reps is good.

Drawing conclusions on 12 shots is not good. If they all went in, we would be roasting anyone who didn't notice how fucking lost AN looks. We shouldn't be panicking over 3-12.

He'll be fine. We just don't know when he'll be valuable yet.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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May as well let you all judge for yourselves. Here are his 3 jumpshots from the game:

https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=96&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 22' Pullup Jump Shot&sct=plot
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=96&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 22' Pullup Jump Shot&sct=plot
https://www.nba.com/stats/events/?GameEventID=259&GameID=0022000097&Season=2020-21&flag=1&title=MISS Nesmith 27' 3PT Jump Shot&sct=plot
On the first 2, he is rushed, and his legs splay out, way off balance.

On the third, Tatum does a good job forcing Nesmith's man to commit at the nail, and Nesmith takes the pass much more in rhythm and goes up with much better balance. He misses, but it was a much better miss.

The guy had extremely good mechanics in college, and still shows them when he's not pressing now. I'm fairly optimistic that he'll work it out to some degree.
Maybe it was just me... but the first 2 links were the same play. At first I was thinking "man, he burned his defender with the same upfake twice! And got to the same spot... with the same score....and same time left on the clock..." Looking at the URL confirmed it-- game eventid = 96 for the first 2.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Maybe it was just me... but the first 2 links were the same play. At first I was thinking "man, he burned his defender with the same upfake twice! And got to the same spot... with the same score....and same time left on the clock..." Looking at the URL confirmed it-- game eventid = 96 for the first 2.
Its funny - I wonder if the C's coaching staff made Nesmith watch that particular clip repeatedly too because, regardless of his form, it was terrible shot selection. The Raps gave him that space precisely because its such a low yielding attempt in terms of expected points. No slight on Nesmith - you consistently see young NBA players bite on the allure of the "almost midrange" right inside the arc.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Agreed. Game is still moving way too fast for him, but there were signs that he's getting more comfortable. Getting reps is good.

Drawing conclusions on 12 shots is not good. If they all went in, we would be roasting anyone who didn't notice how fucking lost AN looks. We shouldn't be panicking over 3-12.

He'll be fine. We just don't know when he'll be valuable yet.
Grant Williams was 3/11, .272 from 3 before yesterday's game. He's now 6/15, .400.

In today's NBA, 100s isn't even a sample.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Maybe it was just me... but the first 2 links were the same play. At first I was thinking "man, he burned his defender with the same upfake twice! And got to the same spot... with the same score....and same time left on the clock..." Looking at the URL confirmed it-- game eventid = 96 for the first 2.
Sorry for some reason I can't get the third shot to link but if you go to the NBA.com boxscore - https://www.nba.com/game/bos-vs-tor-0022000097/box-score - right click on AN's shot attempts (3) and you will be taken to the page where you can click on all of his shots, including the 3rd shot and the 2nd 3P shot.
 
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