Choose Your Own Adventure: Celtics 2020 Offseason

BigSoxFan

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Speaking of Hayward, he has to decide by Saturday, right? I think there is a 99.9999% chance he opts in but will be good to know what he does.
 

nighthob

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I say re-sign hayward and Kanter--when they are healthy it changes the look and options on the team--they need an inside banger and if Hayward is healthy teams have to cover him--his first game back against the Heat showed his impact----thought nothing the next game
I doubt Kanter opts out, in the imploding cap/luxury tax environment no team is going to pay him what he's making now. As for Hayward, if he opts out he will be going, Tatum is about to become a 30% max contract player and they can't afford three of those guys. Their best case scenario is that someone works out a deal for Hayward after he opts in, and they replace him with lower cost roleplayers. Because next offseason he's gone anyway (unless he's willing to sign for Terry Rozier money).
 

NomarsFool

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I hope Hayward comes back for one year, so the Celtics finally get a full season of value out of him. Let’s see him put up some great numbers and then leave (maybe there’s a sign and trade that makes sense for all involved)
 

nighthob

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If they let Hayward walk what they're going to end up with is end of the bench filler. Their best case scenario really is that someone like the Warriors wants to trade for Hayward. Outside that they're beating the hustings trying to find two way wings in hopes that one of them hits their 1% projection and becomes that third guy they can add to the J-Crew.
 

DGreenwood

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In case you don't subscribe to The Athletic, Harper's way too early power ranking for next year starts out:
1. Lakers
2. Denver
3. Miami
4. Boston
5. Golden State
6. Milwaukee

He lists an offseason priority for each team and Boston's is to find a new home for Hayward in order to add bench depth.
 

NomarsFool

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I remember when the Celtics traded Ainge for Pinckney and Joe Klein for depth. Yech. I don't want to see them trade an near All-Star caliber player so we can have better guys on the bench.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Something to keep an eye on once we find out when NBA teams can start making trades: some within the Pacers organization continue to have interest in trading for Celtics’ Gordon Hayward, per SNY sources.
It’s unknown what Boston would want in return for Hayward -- or if the club is even open to moving him.
In an NBC Sports podcast in June, the Indianapolis Star noted that Hayward would be a player of interest for the Pacers in the offseason.
Hayward, who starred at Butler, can become a free agent by opting out of the final year of his deal, worth roughly $34 million. It’s hard to see Hayward opting out of his deal without the assurance of a long-term extension in place.

 

NomarsFool

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If they trade for him, they get to have his Bird rights. I don't know how valuable that is to them with regards to their cap situation.
 

NomarsFool

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It's interesting to me how many of the (Celtics fan inspired) trade rumors involve Romeo Langford. I'm not trying to knock the guy, but if I was a GM of another club, I wouldn't value him at all. He's basically shown very little this past year other than he gets hurt a lot. I certainly wouldn't be trading any established players for him.
 

BigSoxFan

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It's interesting to me how many of the (Celtics fan inspired) trade rumors involve Romeo Langford. I'm not trying to knock the guy, but if I was a GM of another club, I wouldn't value him at all. He's basically shown very little this past year other than he gets hurt a lot. I certainly wouldn't be trading any established players for him.
Not sure that's entirely fair. He was a 20 year-old playing on a deep, upper echelon team and still carved out a minor role based on his defensive capabilities. If I'm a GM and I saw a 20 year-old cracking Stevens' rotation, I'm taking notice. There is obviously a lot for Langford to prove on the offensive end but it's not like Langford was a N'Keal Harry pick or something.

Langford isn't valuable enough to headline a major deal but that doesn't mean he doesn't have any value. He's only just about to turn 21 and has several years of cheap control left. There is plenty of value there and a decent amount of upside. His outside shooting progression will ultimately determine his value but his defensive capabilities should keep him in the league for several years.
 

benhogan

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Something to keep an eye on once we find out when NBA teams can start making trades: some within the Pacers organization continue to have interest in trading for Celtics’ Gordon Hayward, per SNY sources.
It’s unknown what Boston would want in return for Hayward -- or if the club is even open to moving him.
In an NBC Sports podcast in June, the Indianapolis Star noted that Hayward would be a player of interest for the Pacers in the offseason.
Hayward, who starred at Butler, can become a free agent by opting out of the final year of his deal, worth roughly $34 million. It’s hard to see Hayward opting out of his deal without the assurance of a long-term extension in place.

The double BIG situation didn't work for them in Playoffs last season or this season. One of Turner or Sabonis could be moved/available. Regardless of Pritchards like/dislike of DAR is irrelevant since Hayward makes them better in 2021 than the Turner/Sabonis combo. I like Sabonis better and would holdout for him. There are very few buyers of 5s. I'm really reticent about going after and pay one $19Mm/yr but Sabonis is probably worth it

A 3rd team would need to be added to take salary/player from Indy and get compensated with pick (s).

Getting the C's under the Cap by adding Sabonis while unloading Hayward + Kanter is worth a couple of firsts IMO.

It's interesting to me how many of the (Celtics fan inspired) trade rumors involve Romeo Langford. I'm not trying to knock the guy, but if I was a GM of another club, I wouldn't value him at all. He's basically shown very little this past year other than he gets hurt a lot. I certainly wouldn't be trading any established players for him.
Trading Langford would be the very definition of selling low
 

nighthob

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I'm a Turner unfan. You ask three things of Cs these days, play defense, set effective screens, and try not to be an offensive liability. He's an effective shotblocker, but I'm otherwise unimpressed by his D. His rebounding is pretty poor, he doesn't even screen out all that well to allow his teammates to grab boards. If he were getting MLE money, I'd shrug and say "Oh, well". But he's not, he's getting Brogdon money and he doesn't have nearly as much impact.

If Indiana could work out a three way deal with the Pistons to provide Boston with picks and a cap reset, I'd think much more positively about an Indiana deal. But if this is just the Pacers dumping their sunk costs on Boston, no thanks.
 

Cellar-Door

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I doubt Kanter opts out, in the imploding cap/luxury tax environment no team is going to pay him what he's making now. As for Hayward, if he opts out he will be going, Tatum is about to become a 30% max contract player and they can't afford three of those guys. Their best case scenario is that someone works out a deal for Hayward after he opts in, and they replace him with lower cost roleplayers. Because next offseason he's gone anyway (unless he's willing to sign for Terry Rozier money).
The only reasonable Hayward opt-out to re-sign that I have seen is the speculation that if he really wants to stay in Boston for both basketball and family reasons, he might opt out and re-sign on a frontloaded deal that is something like 4-90 or 4-95. He'd be likely taking a discount, but he'd be locking in money now, and for the Celtics, they'd get the declining salaries as the Tatum deal ramps up. Probably depends a lot on what he sees his market as in a year, and how committed he is to getting a bigger deal vs. a comfortable situation.
 

NomarsFool

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Still, for that to make sense, he'd have to think he'd get less than 3-61 on the market next "summer" (factoring in the risk of injury / poor performance this season). I think I'd take the guaranteed $34 million and take my chances.

I saw an article recently about how with the expected escrow of salaries that having 25% of $34 million in escrow was worse than having 25% of $20 million in escrow. Ummmm….I'd rather have 75% of $34 million than 75% of $20 million.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Still, for that to make sense, he'd have to think he'd get less than 3-61 on the market next "summer" (factoring in the risk of injury / poor performance this season). I think I'd take the guaranteed $34 million and take my chances.

I saw an article recently about how with the expected escrow of salaries that having 25% of $34 million in escrow was worse than having 25% of $20 million in escrow. Ummmm….I'd rather have 75% of $34 million than 75% of $20 million.
I think the primary reason he'd take an extension---and I've seen 4/80-85 in a couple places---is about family and about wanting to win with Stevens. If his calculation is even 50% about total pay, he's not going to take that extension. But I have zero idea what his priorities are, and pretty sure no one else around here does either. Guys like him more often than not take the money, but the guys who do not often fit his profile (including having banked $100 mil already).
 

NomarsFool

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Sure, he can want to win with Stevens. But, I'm not seeing how that is different a year from now. It's not like he'll be competing with other potential free agents the Celtics could sign. For the most part, it's re-sign Hayward, or watch that salary slot go away.
 

nighthob

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The salary slot went away the minute the pandemic started. It's just that no one knew it last winter. But the reality is that Boston's not going to spend $25-$30 million past the tax line.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Sure, he can want to win with Stevens. But, I'm not seeing how that is different a year from now. It's not like he'll be competing with other potential free agents the Celtics could sign. For the most part, it's re-sign Hayward, or watch that salary slot go away.
Yes, but if he wants to be here the Celtics control the terms.

If he doesn't really care that much whether he stays or not--which I think is most likely the case--then indeed he can just wait.
 

NomarsFool

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One thing that is difficult to understand at this point because everything is so much up in the air, is how much the Celtics could potentially save by reducing Hayward's cap number for this upcoming season (due to the repeater tax). All of that would be predicated on their being mutual interest between the Celtics and Hayward of staying here for the next X years, of course. But, there could be a scenario that if by reducing Hayward's salary to get them above the tax line for next season would have substantial benefits down the line. That would enable them to "overpay" a bit for Hayward long-term and be a "win-win" for both sides. Of course, that also assumes both sides take on quite a bit of risk for this upcoming season - as nobody really knows how he'll be coming back from this next injury, what's happening with the cap, the market next summer, etc.
 

nighthob

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Unless there's an agreement to keep the cap as is until BRI returns to normal (and there won't be because smaller market teams would suffer a bloodbath) Hayward would need to take Marcus money to remain here. People need to accept that he's leaving, either via trade for picks or in free agency in the 21-22 offseason (whenever that is).
 

PedroKsBambino

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As input to the Gordon Hayward discussion, Bobby Marks has a piece on ESPN about the value of FAs. He pegs Hayward at $22-24 mil "as the first year in a long term deal" and that a one-year deal would be well more.

So, that's generally consistent with the 4/$90ish range some have speculated and a bit above the 4/$80ish range others have (though, that is premised on a small hometown discount).

It also suggests that if you buy Marks' assumptions on cap/tax issues that a 1/$34 Hayward is not outrageously priced though is certainly no bargain....likely a few mil overpaid.
 

nighthob

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If Hayward is willing to sign a thee year extension at from $62-$66 million he might be an attractive trade target. If you're comfortably under the tax then having Hayward at average salary of $24-$25 million isn't bad.
 

DannyDarwinism

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In Lowe’s most recent podcast with Bobby Mark’s, he references the Pacer’s reported interest in Hayward, and says there’s some “smoke out there” indicating that “it’s no guarantee that Hayward will be on the Celtics next year. I don’t know if that involves him opting out or him opting in and Boston trading him, but something is mildly afoot here.” Marks mentions Atlanta as a potential suitor. Pretty nebulous stuff, but it’s out there.
 

ehaz

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The double BIG situation didn't work for them in Playoffs last season or this season. One of Turner or Sabonis could be moved/available. Regardless of Pritchards like/dislike of DAR is irrelevant since Hayward makes them better in 2021 than the Turner/Sabonis combo. I like Sabonis better and would holdout for him. There are very few buyers of 5s. I'm really reticent about going after and pay one $19Mm/yr but Sabonis is probably worth it

A 3rd team would need to be added to take salary/player from Indy and get compensated with pick (s).

Getting the C's under the Cap by adding Sabonis while unloading Hayward + Kanter is worth a couple of firsts IMO.
I love Sabonis offensively but what do you think of him defensively?

Also every rumor I've heard seems to imply the Pacers are considering moving Turner and building around Sabonis. Is there reason to think the Pacers would be open to a Sabonis deal?
 

nighthob

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In Lowe’s most recent podcast with Bobby Mark’s, he references the Pacer’s reported interest in Hayward, and says there’s some “smoke out there” indicating that “it’s no guarantee that Hayward will be on the Celtics next year. I don’t know if that involves him opting out or him opting in and Boston trading him, but something is mildly afoot here.” Marks mentions Atlanta as a potential suitor. Pretty nebulous stuff, but it’s out there.
I mean if Indiana could get a decentish pick for Turner in a three way scenario then I could see that happening. Turner is an MLE level player making twice that money. So it’s understandable why they’d want to unload him with a better C on the roster in Sabonis. If they could talk New York into taking Oladipo and Detroit into taking Turner, making it a three way deal to generate a TPE of sufficient size, then Hayward for Holiday and picks would be a pretty good deal for both teams.
 

benhogan

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I love Sabonis offensively but what do you think of him defensively?

Also every rumor I've heard seems to imply the Pacers are considering moving Turner and building around Sabonis. Is there reason to think the Pacers would be open to a Sabonis deal?
You're right they'll move Turner before Sabonis. I'm not as hot on Myles as others. He can appear clumsy to me. Theis at $6MM should be fine with TL/GW developing. PLUS Kanter will be back for his 10mpg.

If you could replace GH with Turner then you could make an argument that it makes sense CAP and long term wise. YMMV

I'd expect Sabonis, playing in the Brad Machine*, would roughly be Aron Baynes-like defensively. AND be early Hawks Horford offensively. I've been a Sabonis honk for years, so I'm bias.

*the Brad Machine could also make Myles Turner much better
 
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ElcaballitoMVP

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In Lowe’s most recent podcast with Bobby Mark’s, he references the Pacer’s reported interest in Hayward, and says there’s some “smoke out there” indicating that “it’s no guarantee that Hayward will be on the Celtics next year. I don’t know if that involves him opting out or him opting in and Boston trading him, but something is mildly afoot here.” Marks mentions Atlanta as a potential suitor. Pretty nebulous stuff, but it’s out there.
I'm not sure Hayward is what ATL needs, but they do need wing help for Young and Collins. One rumor out there today is ATL floating the #6 pick for some veteran help and if I'm reading things correctly they have somewhere around $40M in cap space.

I'd imagine ATL would be looking to dump Capela or Dedmon (or both) to make such a move, though. And if that's the case I'm a lot less interested.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Capela/#6/future Atlanta #1 for Hayward would be worth considering, though.
I have a hard time seeing Boston tie up money in Capela for a season and a half but who knows. The guy would have been unplayable for long stretches of the recent playoffs so the C's would need to make up for the loss of Hayward's production and also have a plan for when Capela can't be on the floor.

Frankly, if Boston is doing this deal, it suggests they are reverting to a more traditional style of basketball where they utilize a big who cannot stretch the floor on offense. Its effectively a 180 from the direction they have been headed over the past few seasons.
 

nighthob

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I have a hard time seeing Boston tie up money in Capela for a season and a half but who knows. The guy would have been unplayable for long stretches of the recent playoffs so the C's would need to make up for the loss of Hayward's production and also have a plan for when Capela can't be on the floor.

Frankly, if Boston is doing this deal, it suggests they are reverting to a more traditional style of basketball where they utilize a big who cannot stretch the floor on offense. Its effectively a 180 from the direction they have been headed over the past few seasons.
Oh, I agree that he's just a sunk cost for Hayward to Atlanta if the Hawks want to offload salary and use any deal as a means of attracting free agents. So I'd want more than #6 to eat that deal. Alternatively Hayward for #6 works just fine since the Hawks have plenty of space.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Oh, I agree that he's just a sunk cost for Hayward to Atlanta if the Hawks want to offload salary and use any deal as a means of attracting free agents. So I'd want more than #6 to eat that deal. Alternatively Hayward for #6 works just fine since the Hawks have plenty of space.
If the C's think a backwards move is the right one at this time, I will trust them. But again, in your tireless efforts to make Gordon Hayward disappear, you need to acknowledge that there is likely a hit to this team's competitiveness.

Getting a player who, likely won't average more than ~15-20 minutes a game means you have to account for around ~12-15 MPG. I don't agree with the view that the Celtics can fill those minutes productively even with improvements to their existing roster so they would then have to add some wing depth off the back of the trade.

If they do this, they presumably move Theis as well, correct? If that is the case, you have to account for the delta there as well. Most advanced metrics have Theis as the better of the two players and he fits the C's current style of play better too.

Losing Theis on his contract as well as Hayward for Capela and tax savings is not the type of move a franchise with title hopes typically makes.
 
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128

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When do we find out which way Hayward is opting for 2020-21? I know the deadline was pushed back, but the draft is little more than two weeks away.
 

nighthob

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Wildly unrealistic deal—no chance Atlanta would do anything close to this.
The rumor is that the Hawks are already trying to unload Capela with #6 as a sweetener. And not for an all star, just a vet to help the young guys take a step forward.

If the C's think a backwards move is the right one at this time, I will trust them. But again, in your tireless efforts to make Gordon Hayward disappear, you need to acknowledge that there is likely a hit to this team's competitiveness.
No one’s said that this is an improvement thing. Everyone’s acknowledged that this is about resetting the luxury tax to create flexibility for them in ‘22 and beyond. And the hope that whoever they draft/acquire can help the Jay-Crew win.

If they do this, they presumably move Theis as well, correct? If that is the case, you have to account for the delta there as well. Most advance metrics have Theis as the better of the two players and he fits the C's current style of play better too.
Why would they move Theis to create more playing time for a guy whose best position is “Salary Ballast”? Capela’s a prime candidate to get traded into a rebuilding team’s cap space in ‘22.
 

mcpickl

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Wildly unrealistic deal—no chance Atlanta would do anything close to this.
I agree. This would be one of the craziest trades ever.

Atlanta gave up a 1st and a 2nd to get Capela at the deadline. Then before he even plays a game for him, they dump him off with the 6th pick and another future 1st for a different veteran?

Might as well just submit your resignation letter as a GM with the paperwork on that deal.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Why would they move Theis to create more playing time for a guy whose best position is “Salary Ballast”? Capela’s a prime candidate to get traded into a rebuilding team’s cap space in ‘22.
So Capela is playing five to fifteen minutes a game to spell Theis or is he waving towels while Time Lord gets run? $19mm seems like a lot to tie up for one season plus in a player who doesn't really fit what they do and provides a very limited amount of value overall.

Forgetting Atlanta's motivation to do this deal as proposed, I am still struggling with the logic here. This seems like a deal Boston would only do if they absolutely are intent on getting rid of Hayward and the market for his services doesn't exist outside of the Hawks. Otherwise, there have to be deals where they aren't tying up salary/cap in a player they really cannot use.
 

nighthob

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I could only see Boston doing it if Atlanta added extra picks to the pot. Because it can only happen if Hayward opts in (otherwise, if he considered Atlanta appealing, he’d just sign there). Otherwise the Hawks are just looking for vet starter level players for some team to eat Capela’s deal in exchange for #6. That deal has no appeal at all because Capela is a Kanter level player and wouldn’t get any more run than Enes.
 

Cellar-Door

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When do we find out which way Hayward is opting for 2020-21? I know the deadline was pushed back, but the draft is little more than two weeks away.
Nobody can opt in or out until the cap is set. Rumor is that the cap will be set by the end of this week, and then the new deadline for options, guarantees and QOs set up soon after.