Who are some switchable wings that could be had that are close to the talent of Hayward/Holiday?
Couldn’t there just not be many available so Danny pivoted to Jrue? Plus, IMO, Jrue and Smart can cover a good amount of the wings in the league
Choose Your Own Adventure: Celtics 2020 Offseason
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Couldn’t there just not be many available so Danny pivoted to Jrue? Plus, IMO, Jrue and Smart can cover a good amount of the wings in the league
I don't have an issue with posters exploring a "decent probability" or "plausible scenarios." I'm just challenging their acceptance as certain premises then used to build flawed syllogisms.
Maybe you can explain why Ainge would consider moving Hayward and/or Kemba?
or why there is speculation?
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True. But if it involves Hayward you are just delaying by a year the annoyance of not knowing what the player will do
I think there's dozens of reasons they might move those guys.
They might think Hayward doesn't want to be in Boston. They might feel they need more size and he's the most movable piece. They might feel he's duplicative skill wise (or that he is unhappy in his role). They might feel they need more youth (although not likely!). They may not want to pay the tax down the road. They may feel he's going to leave next year and there's better options now. All plausible. None of us have any idea which is true, certainly including me. We just have ideas and preferences and beliefs among them which is fine.
On rumors, this is something that has been discussed on this board for more than a decade....really since it started. There are lots of things we see in the media. We know, from former front office execs who join the media (Hollinger and Marks being two who are now media) that many of the things in the media are flat-out false---teams never did them or thought about them. We also know that some are true, and some are partially true (yes, that was talked about, but only in the context of this other thing also happening, or yes, so and so's name came up but there were never any proposals) . And we also know (again, from guys in media and books written later on about teams) that lots of things that are discussed between teams are never leaked. So what we see in the media is never all that is being considered, and may not be real. Again, I enjoy seeing the rumors and discussing them...but I disagree with the idea that because it was in the media it must be so.
So is there relevance to something being in the media? Sure, some. Does it mean it is true? It simply does not. This is also where the reporter comes in---guys like Woj have a long track record and deep network of connections, so what they say has (in my mind---you can of course disagree) some real weight. They may be played, they may be sharing only part of a story, but they are (again, IMO) likely not just making things up. On the other hand, random bloggers do in fact just make things up (we have posters in this thread who are making up things about Kemba's knee!) and so some guy I've never heard of with no obvious media role or sources saying "Hayward and 14 for Turner" I give no greater weight than someone in this thread posting a fake trade. I in fact give it less---many of you are very knowledgeable and realistic and have shown that over the years---whereas I have no idea if that guy even knows what he is talking about (the fact his fake trade fails the cap is an indication he has no idea how this all works).
People can disagree with all of the above, of course....
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I don’t think there’s any actual sources speculation that Ainge is considering moving Kemba. A few media members are throwing out Kemba trades in conjunction with the rumor that they want to get Jrue Holiday because of Kemba’s salary.
But there’s no actual “Kemba wants out” or “Ainge is looking to move Kemba” reports like there is with Hayward.
that's fair
Hayward, back to Indy, has been speculated for a while (all pretty baseless) but it's been board fodder for over a year. So when someone says Turner for Hayward +14 you really don't need to "Trade Machine" or add other players. Hayward is a much better player than Turner and slapping a lottery pick on it would be done to give Ainge flexibility. Hence when you see an uneven trade like that, there would be a 3rd team involved like Atlanta or NYK to sop up salary.
The trade suggestion, the adding of players like Oladipo, and the idea of a 3rd team to soak up $$$ is far from fact. It's all conjecture. Apologies if there was confusion
Since I'm the one that posted that, I owe a bit of context for the source, especially considering his tweet is being aggregated by a bunch of entities that you'd expect to aggregate this type of thin gruel (including CBS Boston), which was perhaps the point in the first place.
He's an Indy-based freelancer and blogger with who's done some Pacer-specific hoops work for a bunch of legit publications, though it looks like football is his primary area. He does not have the followers you'd expect for someone with actual NBA sources, though he does have some SoSH BBTL followers, presumably for his Colts stuff. Scrolling through his feed see a lot of speculation and virtually no actual sourced reporting. And he hates Myles Turner.
And to be clear, I appreciate seeing all the rumors---love it for entertainment and didn't think you were endorsing or 'vouching for' the person. This and beginning of FA are awesome in part because there are so many rumors and ideas out there to discuss! Just clarifying that it being out there doesn't mean it is so, or that the team can only have decided x or y....
Except that I’m not saying that Walker’s knee is toast and they still need one more reset before Kemba’s contract is done or they’ll incur the repeater tax. And no one is saying that Boston needs to focus on adding a PG, the rumor is that they’re doing just that. And it comes from someone that doesn’t do a lot of clickbait. Hence the speculation about what Kemba’s knee is like.
It’s true because Hayward is going to pick his next destination. And that destination almost certainly isn’t New Orleans.
The thing is that with Tatum going sunshine supernova and Brown becoming more high use, if Walker were 100% there really isn’t much of a role for a fourth scorer. If, on the other hand, Walker needs to be babied to keep him healthy for the playoffs, there’s definitely a role for a fourth scorer.
Perhaps we have differing understandings of the word "cinch." To me, it suggests certainty. So when you start with premise A ("Given Boston's public admissions") which is flawed and add premise B ("their sudden interest in Holiday") which we don't know to draw a conclusion C ("it's a cinch that Walker's knee is in worse shape than we think"), I don't see the certainty.
I completely agree but who do you think they could get for Hayward that’s a switchable wing that approaches Hayward’s skill level and salary? Or one that could be available in the near future to use a TPE on?
I can’t think of one, and if there’s not one that would be realistically available, why isn’t Holiday the best option? If that’s the case, then going after Holiday isn’t a referendum on Walker’s health correct but trying to acquire veteran talent to get this group closer to championship level
I agree with your points, though on the final sentence I would add that the move for Holiday, if it is real, might be aimed at both adding insurance for Walker's health and moving the team's talent closer to a championship.
You understand load management, yes? No back to backs, breaks during five game in seven night stretches, etc.? The way that every team with a star with a chronic condition manages?
This is going to be more of an issue for teams next year with the season starting seven weeks late, not ending seven weeks late, and still playing a 72 game schedule. So there are going to be a lot stretches of compressed schedule next year. Which means that there are going to be a lot of nights where Walker's watching in street clothes because, literally, the only thing that fucking matters is that he be healthy come playoff time.
A couple of thoughts on the Holiday rumors/Kemba's knee stuff/
I do not believe Danny is making moves to maximize regular season wins. The goal is to win a championship. So if he's acquiring Holiday it is not (primarily) to add scoring punch to the regular season.
So why do the deal? There are multiple, non-exclusive, possibilities:
I do not believe Danny is making moves to maximize regular season wins. The goal is to win a championship. So if he's acquiring Holiday it is not (primarily) to add scoring punch to the regular season.
So why do the deal? There are multiple, non-exclusive, possibilities:
- Kemba's knee is not "cooked." Indeed, the Celtics medical staff tells Danny all will be ok with load management and treatement. Nevertheless it presents a risk - a risk for which the Celtics' roster as currently constructed does not have insurance. Holiday provides that insurance.
- Defense. While Marcus is an all NBA defensive player, he is not at this best against quicker PG's. Holiday provides the Celtics with more defensive versatility (not less) because he fills that void. Losing Hayward does not compromise wing defense. You still have Brown, Tatum, Langford and Smart. Plus how many teams, have 2 dominant offensive players on the wing, let alone 3.
- Tax considerations. If Hayward is moved into another team's space and brings back Holiday, the Celtics would reduce the overall salary by 9 million. You could then duck the tax entirely at a low cost at this point. You could try to resign Holiday next year with the repeater pushed off.
- A three team trade seems most likely, but if NOP does not want Holiday then they presumably do not want GH. Atlanta would make sense given that by all accounts they really want to make the playoffs next year.
As I said earlier, in a vacuum (i.e. where Walker's 100%) there are a lot of approaches you could use. You could use the sign & trade to generate a TPE to take advantage of Houston's coming firesale and acquire Robert Covington who's got two more years at sub-Marcus money. You could use the deal to upgrade the bench. Marcus is, again, in a vacuum, the ideal fourth player to roll out with Walker & the Jay-Crew. But you lose his bench production, which hurts. So using a Hayward deal to get better depth guys is a viable approach.
Or you could, assuming that Hayward really does want the Pacers, make the deal for Oladipo. But Boston, apparently, is interested in someone with more PG utility. Which to me seems to indicate that they're worried about the compressed schedule next year as regards Walker's knee. However as I said earlier, I think that Jrue ends up in Atlanta as the Hawks have the pick that New Orleans wants and the Hawks want to make the playoffs.
Great post.
Another thing to keep in mind is that both Ainge and various player agents are intentionally seeding the market with both true and false narratives at this point, for various reasons. Ainge is clearly trying to cause confusion as to the C's plan, particularly as regards our looming draft picks. Player agents are throwing out trial balloons, as are other league GMs. It's a very confusing three weeks, even with the superior and recent clarity around the cap/tax situation (and that it's not catastrophic).
People are brainstorming here, which is kind of the point absent real news. Most of this Twitterverse speculation is worse than what the contributors to this forum come up with.
Great post. I think this sums up the last couple of days' worth of rumors pretty well. Scenarios are talked about with teams all the time and one minute it's on the table and the next minute it isn't. I think having Holiday rather than Walker is better when talking about being in the postseason. He is much better defensively than Walker(and I absolutely love Walker) and not that much of a downgrade offensively. I think if that's the trade possibility in front of you, you do it. A starting 5 of Holiday-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Theis or Rob Will with Smart as the 6th man is an upgrade over last year. Fix some things in spots 7-9 and you got a squad who can make it to the Finals.
Walker has had Synvisc. This is known fact. While that doesn't mean that his knees are toast, we have a problem. That he had literal months off and wasn't any better off is another indicator.
Outside of some kind of Christmas miracle, Kemba is either getting every third game off in order to manage swelling/pain or something even worse is afoot. We will need minutes at the ballhandler position for the significantly reduced KW workload. Marcus and maybe Waters takes some of that, but if BW is gone, more is needed.
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Obviously if Rose could sell Walker on the Knicks' future and they take Kemba into capspace for the guy that the Pelicans want at #8 then you have the ideal situation. Whatever Hayward does/wants to do is irrelevant as Holiday is a good complementary scorer to Tatum and Brown and an excellent defender at the 1 spot. And then you can draft someone like Hampton to develop as Jrue's understudy.
4 way deals are nearly impossible to work out, but fun as hell to try and piece together.
Kemba Walker and # 13 to NYK
Jrue Holiday, Myles Turner, Doug McDermott to BOS
Hayward, Langford to IND
#8, #14, Jeremy Lamb to NOP
Saves BOS about 10 million dollars this year
Kemba Walker and # 13 to NYK
Jrue Holiday, Myles Turner, Doug McDermott to BOS
Hayward, Langford to IND
#8, #14, Jeremy Lamb to NOP
Saves BOS about 10 million dollars this year
Yea, you don't need to pay 5s. There are a dozen FA 5s and another 10 available in the first two rounds. Myles Turner at $18MM/yr is not a bargain. Indy is jammed since the Sabonis/Turner combo stinks.
Also, the media meme that the Celtics need a 5 is old and tired. Daniel Theis is fine. TL is improving. Kanter was efficient in the Brad Machine and Granite can be the 5 in a small ball lineup. Draft Tillman at 30 and they are fine for many years ahead.
Also, the media meme that the Celtics need a 5 is old and tired. Daniel Theis is fine. TL is improving. Kanter was efficient in the Brad Machine and Granite can be the 5 in a small ball lineup. Draft Tillman at 30 and they are fine for many years ahead.
People seem to be missing the point wrt Kemba. The question isn't whether or not he's definitively cooked. If he were, there would be no market for him at all.
The issue is that, given the chance he might be cooked, or at least require delicate handling, there are teams he fits better than the Celtics. The Celtics have 3 really good young players, two of whom are still developing rapidly one of whom looks on track to be on the outside of MVP conversation. The key now is to not fuck things up. If you have a chance to de-risk Kemba for neutral value, you absolutely do that.
The issue is that, given the chance he might be cooked, or at least require delicate handling, there are teams he fits better than the Celtics. The Celtics have 3 really good young players, two of whom are still developing rapidly one of whom looks on track to be on the outside of MVP conversation. The key now is to not fuck things up. If you have a chance to de-risk Kemba for neutral value, you absolutely do that.
Trade season starts in less than 26 hours
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1327990349135015937?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1327990349135015937?s=21
Keith Smith
@KeithSmithNBA
19s
Per league sources: The vast majority of player/team option deadlines are 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 19.
EDIT: Smith is now saying 5pm on Nov19
EDIT #2: That means that Hayward and Kanter will not be able to be included in draft day trades, unless they have opted into their 20-21 contracts.
@KeithSmithNBA
19s
Per league sources: The vast majority of player/team option deadlines are 3:00 PM ET on Thursday, November 19.
EDIT: Smith is now saying 5pm on Nov19
EDIT #2: That means that Hayward and Kanter will not be able to be included in draft day trades, unless they have opted into their 20-21 contracts.
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I've heard this moving up in the draft and major trade rumors before. My guess is only minor changes happen and Danny tells us that he did his best to get a deal done.
It takes 2 to tango. I'm sure Ainge is working the phones but you can only do so much with 14/26/30 in a weak draft. Odds are we stay at 14 and pick an RJ Hampton type and one or both of 26/30 is traded for future pick/salary cap considerations. It does seem like his motivation to deal is pretty strong. We also don't know how the Hayward situation will shake out just yet.
I'd say it's a fairly flat draft outside of the top handful of players, but it also seems to be somewhat strong in players that project at least to have some usefulness. I think there's a good chance players drafted in the 20s have good NBA careers and have nearly as good a chance of that as those drafted in the 10-20s. It's weak with regards to potential superstars, that's for sure.
Fwiw, jury is out on how many all-NBA guys exist in this draft, but I wouldn't sell it short. There's no obvious, consensus top-5 or top-10, but there are lots of high ceiling guys. We just don't know which guys are the studs.
Agreed, everything is shaped by the Jay Crew (basically since AD went to LA IMO).
This also doesn't mean the Celtics aren't in GFIN mode. The annual leaps of both Tatum (passing wise in the playoffs) and Brown (isolation/handle) are massive. As far as I'm concerned both are untouchable, and every move is driven around their long window.
It's not that I don't like Kemba-Ya or Gordon's all-around game, but they hinder Danny's flexibility to build around that 4-5yr window.
Well we ended up with about the worst possible outcome on Hayward.
Not only losing him for nothing, but the uncertainty about which MLE we'd end up with let a lot of good players go off the board.
I'm sure this will be a very good team, but the avenues to building a championship team narrowed, less paths open at this point, which is annoying.
Not sure if it's Danny's fault, we'll probably never know if Hayward would have turned down an extra $20M to go home.
Not only losing him for nothing, but the uncertainty about which MLE we'd end up with let a lot of good players go off the board.
I'm sure this will be a very good team, but the avenues to building a championship team narrowed, less paths open at this point, which is annoying.
Not sure if it's Danny's fault, we'll probably never know if Hayward would have turned down an extra $20M to go home.
It's disappointing, for sure. The Celtics seem like they improved their regular season depth. But, their playoff team is now a bit worse (or worse than what it should have been - with healthy Hayward). From a positional balance perspective, having the closing 5 be JB-JT-MS-TT-KW is a bit better than replacing TT with GH - but from a talent perspective, it's definitely a downgrade. I assume Teague will be an upgrade over Wannamaker, and Nesmith/Pritchard will probably help a bit situationally more than Semi/Carsen did last season.
They did need an experienced PG to spell Walker during the season. This year is going to be ridiculously compressed and they're going to need to spell Kemba on a semi-regular basis. They also needed a C that was less unbad than Kanter so that Theis reaches the playoffs healthy. So while the loss of Hayward is disappointing, that story was always ending this way. If they can get a large TPE to add one more wing during the season they'll be ready to roll. Because Playoff Jayson won't be as good as 2021 Jayson. He's forcing his way into the MVP race this year.
I also think Playoff Jaylen won't be as good as 2021 Jaylen either. He's going to force his way into an All-Star designation and with Hayward out and Kemba having a lighter load he'll be the solidified #2 option to Jayson.
You can go down the line with this: history suggests that the Celtics will get at least some internal improvement from their other young guys.
That's why all the handwringing about Hayward leaving is going to look bad. I really think they are an improved team at this time over the bubble.
Yeah, without the need to feed Hayward shots, Tatum is going to be free to destroy other teams offensively as well as defensively. He's going to average 26-27 p/g with the extra possessions thrown his way, which should pave his way onto the All Defense team in addition to pushing him up the All NBA ladder.