CFB 2022 Week 14: Conference Championships

Awesome Fossum

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Jul 20, 2005
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All times ET. Lines from ESPN. All Division I games are listed. Rankings are CFP.

Friday, December 2
1:00 PM Akron at Buffalo (-11.5), ESPN+: UB becomes bowl eligible with win; 5-7 UNLV will get the final bowl slot if Akron wins
7:30 PM CUSA Championship: North Texas at UTSA (-8.5), CBSSN
8:00 PM Pac 12 Championship: #11 Utah vs. #4 USC (-3) in Las Vegas, FOX

Saturday, December 3
12:00 PM Big 12 Championship: #10 Kansas State vs. #3 TCU (-2.5) in Arlington, ABC
12:00 PM MAC Championship: Toledo (-2.5) vs. Ohio in Detroit, ESPN
12:00 PM FCS Round of 16: New Hampshire at 8 Holy Cross, ESPN+

2:00 PM FCS Round of 16: Gardner-Webb at 5 William & Mary, ESPN+
2:00 PM FCS Round of 16: Furman at 7 UIW, ESPN+
3:00 PM FCS Round of 16: Delaware at 2 South Dakota State, ESPN+
3:00 PM FCS Round of 16: Weber State at 4 Montana State, ESPN+
3:00 PM FCS Round of 16: Southeastern Louisiana at 6 Samford, ESPN+
3:30 PM Sun Belt Championship: Coastal Carolina at Troy (-10), ESPN
3:30 PM FCS Round of 16: Montana at 3 North Dakota State, ESPN+

4:00 PM SEC Championship: #14 LSU vs. #1 Georgia (-17.5) in Atlanta, CBS
4:00 PM AAC Championship: #22 UCF at #18 Tulane (-3), ABC
4:00 PM MWC Championship: Fresno State at Boise State (-3.5), FOX
4:00 PM SWAC Championship: Southern at Jackson State, ESPN2
5:00 PM FCS Round of 16: Richmond at 1 Sacramento State, ESPN+

8:00 PM Big 10 Championship: Purdue vs. #2 Michigan (-16.5) in Indianapolis, FOX
8:00 PM ACC Championship: #9 Clemson (-7.5) vs. #23 North Carolina in Charlotte, ABC
 
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make hers mark
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Dope
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Will be at the SECCG, as it goes for my annual tradition. I will be pulling for the natives in Georgia for once in Atlanta. I'll be having faint hopes Alabama backdoors its way into #4, much like 2016 Ohio State. My logic is such that if you see Georgia have a loss, it makes it that much more acceptable that if either TCU or USC were to fall, it can happen to anyone, like this year's Buckeyes.

Even aside from the revenge angle though, Utah/USC fascinates me though. First things first from a bottom-up perspective, no Travis Dye; 76 rushing yards, a tuddy on 11 carries, plus 43 yards through the air. I simply do not trust the Trojan defense in any way, shape, or form. 102nd in DL yards, 110th in RZ TD%, and 126th in success rate. USC might be great on offense but Utah isn't bad either, to say the least--I think the only way this is close is if you see a lot of turnovers. USC was +22 there. That led the country. It's EIGHT better than the next closest margin (Duke). In fact, the gap between the Trojans and Blue Devils is the difference between Duke and #29 in this department.

Right now though, I have USC winning at about 62% of the time, or -163 if I were to set a moneyline. I know for sure you can get a better number than this from some outs/books.

For the other direct implications, K-State and TCU. Hm, let's talk TCU since I think they're the true story. Before we get to that though, K-State has a few interesting items: I'm still keeping an eye on if Adrian Martinez is still hurt, though I think if it's Will Howard again, we see one of my favorite recent emerging players: Deuce Vaughn, who started to emerge with Howard under center. He's a receiving back of late, at a collegiate level since he's only 5'6". It's of note he only caught 15 for 74 in the first 6 games, but 23 for 192 over the last 4. He's a great 1v1 on LBs, and dominates around the perimeter. As for TCU...

Sonny Dykes runs a hell of an interesting air raid. Even if Quentin Johnson (ankle) can't go, who we'll hear more from on Sundays sooner than later, I enjoy their unique personnel packages. They love, love going in 10 (1 RB, 0 TE), which is no surprise for an Air Raid team. It's much like Mississippi State, Wazzu, Middle Tenn, all of them air raids who lead the country in this group. You can see them in either 2x2 open, which opens up space, as is normal for an air raid, and allows a solid rush game. Ditto their Trips near open set. Back to that rushing...they run quite a lot out of this personnel. Not a majority of the time, but it's a solid plurality. When they do so, you'll see that quite a lot in tight zone, led by C Steve Avila. They also like the counter, which is pretty self-explanatory, personally. If they run 11 (1 RB, 1 TE), look for #19, Jared Wiley, the transfer from Texas. He's a great tip-off to the run game as he's essentially a TE in name only because he basically serves as a jumbo OL. At his 6'7" height, it makes sense.

Right now, I have TCU to win at just under 60%; -149 would be where I set my moneyline. Again, I think better numbers than this exist in the market.

From a betting perspective with specific respect to ESPN, they use Caesar's lines as an official sponsor. Which can be had pretty easily, honestly with some tracking software I use in combination with my model.
 

Ale Xander

doesn't like to back it in
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Oct 31, 2013
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Thanks for posting Akron v. Buffalo, I'm sure many of us appreciate that!
 

Zososoxfan

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Friday, December 2
8:00 PM Pac 12 Championship: #12 Utah vs. #4 USC (-3) in Las Vegas, FOX

Saturday, December 3
12:00 PM Big 12 Championship: #13 Kansas State vs. #3 TCU (-2.5) in Arlington, ABC
4:00 PM SEC Championship: #11 LSU vs. #1 Georgia (-17.5) in Atlanta, CBS
8:00 PM Big 10 Championship: Purdue vs. #2 Michigan (-16.5) in Indianapolis, FOX
8:00 PM ACC Championship: #10 Clemson (-7.5) vs. #24 North Carolina in Charlotte, ABC

Love that these are about as spread out as can be. All of them except for the ACC game have Playoff implications. Also pretty hilarious that the Big 10 West doesn't have any ranked teams.
 

Awesome Fossum

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Updated with CFP rankings. Confirms what's been clear for a while -- AAC champ is going to get the access bowl spot, either Cotton or Orange. Pulling for Tulane in the Cotton Bowl and Clemson vs Tennessee in the orangiest Orange Bowl ever.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Coastal Carolina head coach Jamey Chadwell just told @HorowitzJason and me on @SXMCollege that he's hopeful Grayson McCall can get healthy enough and practice over the next three days to be available for the Sun Belt title game. But, if the game were today, he would be a "no."

Edit: Copied from group chat. No, it wasn’t “me.”
 

Awesome Fossum

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This game is ridiculous. Buffalo is down 5 with just over 3:00 left. First and ten from like their own 40 -- QB throws just an awful downfield interception. Akron started celebrating before they even caught the ball. Returned it all the way back to the UB 40.

Next play: Akron fumbles the handoff, Bulls recover.
 

nolasoxfan

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Jun 11, 2004
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Gonna be a BIG college football Saturday for @nolasoxfan

1. My alma mater UNH Wildcats face Holy Cross in an FCS playoff.
2. My grad school (Master’s & Ph.D.) alma mater #16 Tulane hosts UCF for the AAC Championship
3. Clemson —family alma mater and adopted college football team since 1978— takes on UNC for the ACC Title

Would love a trifecta, but expect a Meatloaf special.
 

JCizzle

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Dec 11, 2006
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Utah winning might be one of the most PAC-12 things of all time. Not that they should lose on purpose obviously, but the conference can’t get out of its own way
 

JCizzle

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Dec 11, 2006
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I hated USC during the Pete Carroll era, but I can't help but pull for this version. Sucks to lose due to an injury like this. OSU again. Zzzzzzzzzz.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
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Jul 15, 2005
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Some of the shit I have seen called targeting has been a lot tamer than that.