The Memphis pick always had a fairly high variance in expected outcome, especially with all the various protections associated with it; IIRC, there was always the possibility of it never conveying and becoming a pair of second rounders. Celtics did get somewhat unlucky that the Grizzlies won the Ja sweepstakes the year before.
I will be forever pissed at the Sacramento Kings for unexpectedly having their best season in over 10 years when the C's held their pick. There is a definitive line in player outcomes from that draft that can clearly be drawn between picks 13 and 14.
The Memphis pick would've been unprotected the following season if it didn't convey when they picked Nesmith(was top 6 protected then)
I think about this pick way too much. As you said, Memphis hitting Ja was really unlucky for Boston.
If they don't jump in lottery that year, Boston picks in the 9-10 range, and maybe takes Herro(or PJ Washington, Cam Johnson)
If they jump to any other top 4 spot than 2nd that year, the 2020 pick is likely better and maybe they get Haliburton.
If they stunk enough that their pick is in the top 6 and it rolls over to unprotected in 2021, could've been in a dream scenario picking up high in that draft.
Very unlucky that pick ended up way down near the bottom of expected outcomes.