Celtics in 18-19

benhogan

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It is relevant to understand that starting Baynes was never part of the plan last season until Hayward went down, Morris and Smart missed 30 games plus Horford and Jaylen missed another dozen.....yet despite being forced to start due to attrition he was still moved to the bench against multiple opponents to protect Horford.

I’m anti-Horford at the 4 for sure......because he’s not a 4 and took one for the team last year. However there are always some matchups where playing them together is the correct play which is evidence by Horfords. numbers at the 4 in these few advantageous lineups.





Even if Horford is as effective chasing wings 25-feet from the basket playing out of position as he is defending the paint you are losing a ton on the other end by playing Baynes over Morris or Tatum. As close as Brad is to losing this team by starting and inferior player with guys in contract years this would have been the final nail in the coffin. Brad couldn’t find enough minutes for everyone out of the gate without playing two bigs together which is why he didn’t. There are still some teams for short minutes when I’m in favor of it but there aren’t a ton of them.
While I disagree with you on numerous points, I appreciate you clarifying your position.

Why would you even suggest replacing Tatum, that's strange. Is that your game plan when those few going BIG moments happen?
 

HomeRunBaker

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While I disagree with you on numerous points, I appreciate you clarifying your position.

Why would you even suggest replacing Tatum, that's strange. Is that your game plan when those few going BIG moments happen?
Morris, Tatum, Hayward, or Brown.....if your backcourt is Kyrie and Smart then only one of those four mentioned can play the 3. This is another reason I don’t like the double big as you are forced to sit one of your teams best players so that arguably the worst one can get minutes. To me, Baynes is an ideal backup 5 probably one of the best in the league and will get 15-16 mpg without having to sit our better players.
 

benhogan

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Morris, Tatum, Hayward, or Brown.....if your backcourt is Kyrie and Smart then only one of those four mentioned can play the 3. This is another reason I don’t like the double big as you are forced to sit one of your teams best players so that arguably the worst one can get minutes. To me, Baynes is an ideal backup 5 probably one of the best in the league and will get 15-16 mpg without having to sit our better players.
Tatum starts. Tatum and Jaylen can play the 2 with Kyrie or Smart at point as the game moves along.

A little less Terry Rozier/Marcus Morris with Al shifting to the 4 for ~10-12mpg is all that was necessary and would have helped this season. Of course, you know this because mcpickl and I have said this numerous times to you since the beginning of the season. ZERO impact on Tatum, Hayward or Brown's minutes.

If Marcus Morris is one of your teams "best players" then getting bounced in the first round is about right. He had their worst defensive rating for two seasons now (105 and 107.8). MaMo also had the worst net off/def rating last season (.5) and 2nd worst net off/def rating this season (2.2). Rozier was the worst this season (.2). MaMo has been trending down hard since his minutes have increased from the beginning of the year.

Mook and Rozier stifle ball movement on offense and MaMo (last in DRPM also) is their worst defender. Defense and ball movement are the two principals CBS preaches in every post-game presser.

If Danny has been pressuring Brad to up Rozier/MaMo roles/minutes all season, due to their pending free agency, then the Celtics deserve what they got this season. They should have been dealt for players that understand the Celtics brand of basketball (defense/ball mvmt). Not worth the trouble, especially when you have much more efficient players on the roster.

If Rozier and MaMo think they are getting big money and starters roles next season, as you have touted, they and you are mistaken.

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season
 
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NomarsFool

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Have we seen Tatum play the 2 this season? I'm not sure he can keep up with those quicker guards (which typically have been killing the Celtics this season). I think Tatum at 2 and Smart at 1 is going to be left in the dust a lot. Smart is a great defender unless it is someone who is faster than him, which I think is going to the case a lot of the time at PG.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Have we seen Tatum play the 2 this season? I'm not sure he can keep up with those quicker guards (which typically have been killing the Celtics this season). I think Tatum at 2 and Smart at 1 is going to be left in the dust a lot. Smart is a great defender unless it is someone who is faster than him, which I think is going to the case a lot of the time at PG.
Yes, Tatum has played 2/3/smaller wings this season. He's even defended PGs at various points of the season. I would avoid playing him against Kemba (unless we double or trapped him) for more than a few possessions. Tatum is a good defender when engaged.

Who would dust a Tatum/Smart backcourt?

You can look at DeJesus DPRM #s above in this thread or my attached NBA.com advanced defensive ratings to check his metrics.
 

mcpickl

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Baynes has started every game after Hayward went down with the exception of the two Milwaukee games prior to not starting the first Orlando game. The second Orlando game was during his minutes restricted period when he also didn’t start against the Magic. The 3rd Orlando game, which he also didn’t start, came in the middle of a 17 game stretch when this was the only opponent who he didn’t start against. The 4th Magic game he did start.....when Gordon was out. It is really that hard to recognize that Aaron Gordon is a bad matchup for a 5?
But this isn't true. He didn't start those three games, then four games later came off the bench for 7 out of 8 games. At that point he won the starting job and started against everybody except Giannis, Lebron(though he did still start 6 of the 9 remaining Giannis games and 3 of the 9 Lebron games) and Gordon.

It is really that hard to recognize that Aaron Gordon is a bad matchup for a 5?
How have you moved the goalposts so far that now your point is Aaron Gordon is a bad matchup for a 5(which I don't think anyone was arguing against) from Baynes shouldn't start against anybody because Horford can't possibly play the 4 anymore? That's quite a twist.

PS: you're going to hate tonights starting lineup.
 

mcpickl

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It is relevant to understand that starting Baynes was never part of the plan last season until Hayward went down, Morris and Smart missed 30 games plus Horford and Jaylen missed another dozen.....yet despite being forced to start due to attrition he was still moved to the bench against multiple opponents to protect Horford.
Why is this relevant to understand? Plans change. This season the plan was to start Hayward. The plan changed. Before last season when starting Baynes wasn't the plan, the plan in Philly was to have Markelle Fultz be a third star to build around. Plan changed.

From the time Baynes took over the starting job last season, He, Morris and Horford were available for 33 games through the end of the regular season. Horford started all 33 of them, Baynes started 30 and Morris 3. Baynes wasn't starting over Morris due to attrition, he started because it was better for the team. And yes it's true Baynes moved to the bench against multiple opponents to protect Horford. A whopping 9% of them. That somehow proves Horford shouldn't play the 4 against anybody now I guess? Because he couldn't handle it vs a vast minority of opoonents.
 

tbb345

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Tatum starts. Tatum and Jaylen can play the 2 with Kyrie or Smart at point as the game moves along.

A little less Terry Rozier/Marcus Morris with Al shifting to the 4 for ~10-12mpg is all that was necessary and would have helped this season. Of course, you know this because mcpickl and I have said this numerous times to you since the beginning of the season. ZERO impact on Tatum, Hayward or Brown's minutes.

If Marcus Morris is one of your teams "best players" then getting bounced in the first round is about right. He had their worst defensive rating for two seasons now (105 and 107.8). MaMo also had the worst net off/def rating last season (.5) and 2nd worst net off/def rating this season (2.2). Rozier was the worst this season (.2). MaMo has been trending down hard since his minutes have increased from the beginning of the year.

Mook and Rozier stifle ball movement on offense and MaMo (last in DRPM also) is their worst defender. Defense and ball movement are the two principals CBS preaches in every post-game presser.

If Danny has been pressuring Brad to up Rozier/MaMo roles/minutes all season, due to their pending free agency, then the Celtics deserve what they got this season. They should have been dealt for players that understand the Celtics brand of basketball (defense/ball mvmt). Not worth the trouble, especially when you have much more efficient players on the roster.

If Rozier and MaMo think they are getting big money and starters roles next season, as you have touted, they and you are mistaken.

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season
100% agree with this...don’t really have much to add to the analysis, other than to say I really don’t understand how this could be disputed and have yet to see a compelling argument against it.

The 6 players on this team that need to get the most minutes almost every game are: Irving, Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Horford.
Rozier, Mook, and Baynes are your clear 7-9 and their minutes will be dictated by matchup.
 

JCizzle

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Midway through the 4th in a game where both players are coming off the bench. Mook = 25 minutes. Jaylen = 18 minutes. Mook is 3-12 with the third most FGA on the team. I don't get this pattern.
 

The Social Chair

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Midway through the 4th in a game where both players are coming off the bench. Mook = 25 minutes. Jaylen = 18 minutes. Mook is 3-12 with the third most FGA on the team. I don't get this pattern.
Jaylen should ask for a trade this summer. I would if I was in his shoes.
 

Bad Penny

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I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens.
I hope you are still in your "predictions sure to be wrong" mode. I know JB is a little rough around the edges, but next year is his year 23 season. I think given a proper summer and a clear cut role he can make the leap to a 16/5/3 player with good efficiency.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Hard to know that. We have no idea what this roster is going to look like. He may also want a starting role in an RFA year, which is far from guaranteed for him.
Also - and I say this as a huge Juice fan and a pretty big Mook detractor - while Morris shot like garbage, its hard to argue that Brown's performance tonight was much better.

Again, my theory is that the Cs braintrust (braindeadtrust?) thinks that riding with Mook as a "starter" during the regular season will keep him more engaged for when they need him during the playoffs. Meanwhile, Brown is still young and the team can make a case that he will be given similar consideration next year when the roster opens up.

I don't agree with this approach because I dislike Morris' putrid defense but I get it if that is their thinking.

It would suck if you guys are right and Brown demands a trade, especially if they want to keep him. And they should. He is going to be a very good player imho.
 
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benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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100% agree with this...don’t really have much to add to the analysis, other than to say I really don’t understand how this could be disputed and have yet to see a compelling argument against it.

The 6 players on this team that need to get the most minutes almost every game are: Irving, Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Horford.
Rozier, Mook, and Baynes are your clear 7-9 and their minutes will be dictated by matchup.
It's really just that simple. Matchup dependent but something like this:

Irving, Smart, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Horford ~ 30mpg each

Mook and Baynes ~ 18-23 mpg each

Rozier and Theis ~ 10 mpg each
 
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BigSoxFan

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I hope you are still in your "predictions sure to be wrong" mode. I know JB is a little rough around the edges, but next year is his year 23 season. I think given a proper summer and a clear cut role he can make the leap to a 16/5/3 player with good efficiency.
I’m not saying I want him to be gone. I’m saying I wouldn’t be surprised if he wants to go to a different team to get the 30+mpg that he probably feels he deserves.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But this isn't true. He didn't start those three games, then four games later came off the bench for 7 out of 8 games. At that point he won the starting job and started against everybody except Giannis, Lebron(though he did still start 6 of the 9 remaining Giannis games and 3 of the 9 Lebron games) and Gordon.
The link is right here. It is absolutely 100% true. Through the first 14 games of the season he started in all of them except the opener, the two Giannis games, and the one Gordon game. Beginning at Game 15 were the matchups that limited his minutes and/or he was on a minutes restriction as benhogan mentioned.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/baynear01/gamelog/2018



How have you moved the goalposts so far that now your point is Aaron Gordon is a bad matchup for a 5(which I don't think anyone was arguing against) from Baynes shouldn't start against anybody because Horford can't possibly play the 4 anymore? That's quite a twist.

PS: you're going to hate tonights starting lineup.
Of course nobody ever said "Baynes shouldn't start against anybody because Horford can't possibly play the 4 anymore." (He never played the 4 in college or the pros until last season) I'm not sure what goalpost you are referring to I only pointed out that Brad kept Horford from having to defend Gordon just as he did with Giannis, LeBron, Durant, and whichever wing the Nets had out there at the 4.

I didn't hate tonights lineup at all as it was the best lineup with Cleveland starting two bigs at the 4/5. If i had to guess I'd say Morris is probably back in the starting lineup v. Thaddeus Young and definitely is against the Nets as the matchups would dictate.
 

tbb345

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Jaylen should ask for a trade this summer. I would if I was in his shoes.
I have to imagine this will happen as well. If a pretty large percentage of the fan base is complaining about his playing time and that he seems to be one of the only players on the team held to a certain standard (mistakes=getting pulled) I would wager that he feels the same way. And if he does, I’d think he’d want to get out of that situation and avoid another year of this
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Of course nobody ever said "Baynes shouldn't start against anybody because Horford can't possibly play the 4 anymore." (He never played the 4 in college or the pros until last season) I'm not sure what goalpost you are referring to I only pointed out that Brad kept Horford from having to defend Gordon just as he did with Giannis, LeBron, Durant, and whichever wing the Nets had out there at the 4.

I didn't hate tonights lineup at all as it was the best lineup with Cleveland starting two bigs at the 4/5. If i had to guess I'd say Morris is probably back in the starting lineup v. Thaddeus Young and definitely is against the Nets as the matchups would dictate.
HRB, are you sure? I think your memory is playing tricks with you. Horford has been playing both the 4 and the undersized 5 his entire career.

1. Al Horford played the 4 at Florida with Joakim Noah at Center for Florida's two National Championship teams (2006 and 2007).

2. He also played the 4 for the Hawks with ZaZa at the 5 in 2009.
Horford: ‘I’m fine with center but my natural position is obviously the four,’

https://www.slamonline.com/archives/al-horford-to-play-more-power-forward-next-season/

3. Pre-season last year Horford:
"I think it's going to be a good combination for me to play center at times, play at the 4 at others."

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2017/09/al_horford_boston_celtics_big_1.html

4. What position did Amir Johnson (20mpg) play when he started 77 games with Al in 2016-17?



So Al Horford has played the 4, likes and feels it's his natural position, and has been more efficient at the 4 over the last 2 seasons (esp w/Aron Baynes). He should have played the 4 more than ~5% of his minutes for the first 60 games this season. It's a huge culprit on why this team has underperformed this season. He is massively better than the guy playing the 4 at the moment. The team's defense will improve immensely with little to no effect on the offense with Al at the 4. The good thing is Brad & Co have finally succumbed and are implementing Horford at the 4 more and he'll probably start playing ~30% of his minutes there going forward.​
 
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BaseballJones

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Jaylen Brown's per 36 minute rates:

2017-18: 17.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.4 blocks
2018-19: 18.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 steals, 0.6 blocks
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB, are you sure? I think your memory is playing tricks with you. Horford has been playing both the 4 and the undersized 5 his entire career.

1. Al Horford played the 4 at Florida with Joakim Noah at Center for Florida's two National Championship teams (2006 and 2007).

2. He also played the 4 for the Hawks with ZaZa at the 5 in 2009.
Horford: ‘I’m fine with center but my natural position is obviously the four,’

https://www.slamonline.com/archives/al-horford-to-play-more-power-forward-next-season/

3. Pre-season last year Horford:
"I think it's going to be a good combination for me to play center at times, play at the 4 at others."

https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2017/09/al_horford_boston_celtics_big_1.html

4. What position did Amir Johnson (20mpg) play when he started 77 games with Al in 2016-17?



So Al Horford has played the 4, likes and feels it's his natural position, and has been more efficient at the 4 over the last 2 seasons (esp w/Aron Baynes). He should have played the 4 more than ~5% of his minutes for the first 60 games this season. It's a huge culprit on why this team has underperformed this season. He is massively better than the guy playing the 4 at the moment. The team's defense will improve immensely with little to no effect on the offense with Al at the 4. The good thing is Brad & Co have finally succumbed and are implementing Horford at the 4 more and he'll probably start playing ~30% of his minutes there going forward.​
I had forgotten about the Noah tandem but Zaza was moved from the starting lineup to the second unit when Horford arrived in ATL, he didn’t play the 4 there that was Josh Smith. I have no problem with Al playing the 4 versus proper matchups but I can’t imagine that being 30% of his minutes......there are simply too many wing-4’s starting throughout the league where our best matchup would be with Morris.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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I had forgotten about the Noah tandem but Zaza was moved from the starting lineup to the second unit when Horford arrived in ATL, he didn’t play the 4 there that was Josh Smith. I have no problem with Al playing the 4 versus proper matchups but I can’t imagine that being 30% of his minutes......there are simply too many wing-4’s starting throughout the league where our best matchup would be with Morris.
Put aside all the metrics that tell us Morris has been our worst defensive player for 2 straight seasons.

You watch the games. Marcus Morris can't stay in front of his guy, doesn't help around the rim and jogs back on D as much as anyone on this team. He should go back to his B.W.A. (bench with attitude) role that was planned before the season. MaMo actually played well from the bench in limited minutes for the first month.

While you don't like the idea of Horford at the 4, you have to admit he's a much better power forward than MaMo, right?

If Horford plays 30 minutes, 9 minutes at the 4 is what Brad will probably do going forward. BUT I've been pretty bad reading Brad's mind this season, so I may be wrong there. 30% is light IMO, I'd like more.

For the Celtics to be their best Horford should be playing the 4 50% of the time. I've seen Horford swat numerous wings and guards that try to take him to the rim and his length plays well on the perimeter altering 3pt shots. He doesn't chase 4s around because that's not how the Celtics play defense, they switch on the perimeter (so the image of Al chasing around some super quick 6'8" wing is pure hyperbole).

Please give me 4-5 starting 4s that Morris would be better guarding than Al Horford? I can't name one and I suspect you can't either.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Put aside all the metrics that tell us Morris has been our worst defensive player for 2 straight seasons.

You watch the games. Marcus Morris can't stay in front of his guy, doesn't help around the rim and jogs back on D as much as anyone on this team. He should go back to his B.W.A. (bench with attitude) role that was planned before the season. MaMo actually played well from the bench in limited minutes for the first month.

While you don't like the idea of Horford at the 4, you have to admit he's a much better power forward than MaMo, right?

If Horford plays 30 minutes, 9 minutes at the 4 is what Brad will probably do going forward. BUT I've been pretty bad reading Brad's mind this season, so I may be wrong there. 30% is light IMO, I'd like more.

For the Celtics to be their best Horford should be playing the 4 50% of the time. I've seen Horford swat numerous wings and guards that try to take him to the rim and his length plays well on the perimeter altering 3pt shots. He doesn't chase 4s around because that's not how the Celtics play defense, they switch on the perimeter (so the image of Al chasing around some super quick 6'8" wing is pure hyperbole).

Please give me 4-5 starting 4s that Morris would be better guarding than Al Horford? I can't name one and I suspect you can't either.
It isn't about naming players Morris would defend better on defense as I could then name every starter in the league that Morris could score better on than Baynes. It's purely about matchups so no.....I don't dislike Horford at the 4 against big 4/5's who are playing the 4 such as Love last night. I DO dislike Horford playing the 4 against teams like the Nets, Warriors, Hornets, Bucks, Raptors, etc etc where he would be defending 3's masquerading as 4's and Brad wouldn't put him or his team in these positions. How many times do I have to say that our frontcourt lineup and how Horford is used is purely based on matchups? I showed you this last year in the games Horford was moved to the 5 despite us being shorthanded and we'll continue to see this usage this year although it won't be close to your 50% or even 30% of the time.

Answer me this......if we play Toronto in a 7-game series how many minutes do you think Horford and Baynes should play together with Siakam at the 4 with the first unit and Anunoby with the second? I mean, the answer will be zero I just want to hear your thoughts on this and if it is the best matchups for us. How about against the Bucks in a 7-game series with Lopez playing 30-feet from the basket and Giannis at the 4?
 

benhogan

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It isn't about naming players Morris would defend better on defense as I could then name every starter in the league that Morris could score better on than Baynes. It's purely about matchups so no.....I don't dislike Horford at the 4 against big 4/5's who are playing the 4 such as Love last night. I DO dislike Horford playing the 4 against teams like the Nets, Warriors, Hornets, Bucks, Raptors, etc etc where he would be defending 3's masquerading as 4's and Brad wouldn't put him or his team in these positions. How many times do I have to say that our frontcourt lineup and how Horford is used is purely based on matchups? I showed you this last year in the games Horford was moved to the 5 despite us being shorthanded and we'll continue to see this usage this year although it won't be close to your 50% or even 30% of the time.

Answer me this......if we play Toronto in a 7-game series how many minutes do you think Horford and Baynes should play together with Siakam at the 4 with the first unit and Anunoby with the second? I mean, the answer will be zero I just want to hear your thoughts on this and if it is the best matchups for us. How about against the Bucks in a 7-game series with Lopez playing 30-feet from the basket and Giannis at the 4?
7 game series with Toronto and Milwaukee? have you watched this team?

Brad will match Baynes up with Gasol. Same as when they had Valanciunis. If Mook plays over 30 minutes, Siakam will eat him alive and we would lose to them in 5 (if we make it out of the first round).

Baynes/Horford clogging up the defensive lane (Brad's PG-presser words last night) would be much more effective vs. Giannis/Lopez then letting Giannis stroll down the lane for a dunk or kick out.

Horford splitting his time at the 4 & 5 has been my stance since the preseason. Why would that change when Brad incessantly played small all season, while MaMo has played major minutes masquerading as a 4, and this team has massively underperformed doing that?
 
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mcpickl

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It isn't about naming players Morris would defend better on defense as I could then name every starter in the league that Morris could score better on than Baynes. It's purely about matchups so no.....I don't dislike Horford at the 4 against big 4/5's who are playing the 4 such as Love last night. I DO dislike Horford playing the 4 against teams like the Nets, Warriors, Hornets, Bucks, Raptors, etc etc where he would be defending 3's masquerading as 4's and Brad wouldn't put him or his team in these positions. How many times do I have to say that our frontcourt lineup and how Horford is used is purely based on matchups? I showed you this last year in the games Horford was moved to the 5 despite us being shorthanded and we'll continue to see this usage this year although it won't be close to your 50% or even 30% of the time.

Answer me this......if we play Toronto in a 7-game series how many minutes do you think Horford and Baynes should play together with Siakam at the 4 with the first unit and Anunoby with the second? I mean, the answer will be zero I just want to hear your thoughts on this and if it is the best matchups for us. How about against the Bucks in a 7-game series with Lopez playing 30-feet from the basket and Giannis at the 4?
Way more than zero.

Not at all afraid of having Horford guard Siakam and Baynes guard Gasol. Like that much better than Morris guarding Siakam and Horford guarding Gasol. And of course, rather have both Horford and Baynes on the floor to meet Lowry at the rim after he blows by Kyrie.

The link is right here. It is absolutely 100% true. Through the first 14 games of the season he started in all of them except the opener, the two Giannis games, and the one Gordon game. Beginning at Game 15 were the matchups that limited his minutes and/or he was on a minutes restriction as benhogan mentioned.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/baynear01/gamelog/2018
https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/baynear01/gamelog/2018

So if you claim Baynes had won the starting job by then and didn't start due to matchups in those early games, why did he start in those same matchups later?

He didn't start against Brooklyn with RHJ/Carroll at the 3/4 on 11/14, but did twice six weeks later.
He didn't start against Detroit on 11/27, then did two weeks later vs the exact same lineup.
He didn't start against Indiana with Turner/Thaddeus on 11/25, then did three weeks later.

He wasn't out of the starting lineup due to matchups, for godsakes Theis started one of the games he didn't, he just hadn't locked down the job yet.

And again, it's not the bigger point. When Stevens had all three of Horford/Morris/Baynes available from Thanksgiving on last year, he chose Baynes as the starter 30 out of 33 times. It's not ridiculous to think a whole year later that he and Horford could start successfully next to each other again.
 
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benhogan

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Answer me this......if we play Toronto in a 7-game series how many minutes do you think Horford and Baynes should play together with Siakam at the 4 with the first unit and Anunoby with the second? I mean, the answer will be zero I just want to hear your thoughts on this and if it is the best matchups for us. How about against the Bucks in a 7-game series with Lopez playing 30-feet from the basket and Giannis at the 4?
of course, you'd start Baynes/Horford vs Gasol/Siakam.

Please remind me, why am I concerned about 7pt/gm and 33% 3pt shooter, OG Anunoby, off the bench? Jaylen Brown or Gordon Hayward could more than handle that guy.

Why is the answer ZERO minutes over 7 games for a Baynes/Horford combo?


This is one of your oddest posts.
 
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teddykgb

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You guys talk about the NBA like it’s still 1985. Our team defensive concept is to give the switch on the pick and roll and deal with the consequences. There are no 2-3 zones and nobody is clogging the lanes anymore. Brad doesn’t play big that often because other teams will just bring that man out in the pick and force us to switch and scramble. When we play more defenders who struggle to switch 1-5 we end up with more scrambling and more mismatches.

I agree completely that Morris and others have really struggled defensively. Although I don’t agree with Kyrie and think he’s a major culprit, id be more open to experimenting with bigger lineups if we are also going to blitz the screen or force our guards to work harder to avoid the switch. The way we defend it right now is setting those guys up to fail over larger minutes
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,228
Santa Monica
dislike Horford playing the 4 against teams like the Nets, Warriors, Hornets, Bucks, Raptors, etc etc where he would be defending 3's masquerading as 4's and Brad wouldn't put him or his team in these positions. How many times do I have to say that our frontcourt lineup and how Horford is used is purely based on matchups? I showed you this last year in the games Horford was moved to the 5 despite us being shorthanded and we'll continue to see this usage this year although it won't be close to your 50% or even 30% of the time.

Answer me this......if we play Toronto in a 7-game series how many minutes do you think Horford and Baynes should play together with Siakam at the 4 with the first unit and Anunoby with the second? I mean, the answer will be zero I just want to hear your thoughts on this and if it is the best matchups for us. How about against the Bucks in a 7-game series with Lopez playing 30-feet from the basket and Giannis at the 4?
Still trying to make sense of this bazaar post of yours.

Warriors 4/5: Green/Bogut or Cousins
Nets 4/5: Dudley/Allen
Hornets 4/5: Williams/Biyombo or Zeller
Bucks 4/5: Giannis/Lopez
Raptors 4/5: Siakam/Gasol

Yep, I'm more than comfortable with Al Horford guarding Draymond Green, Jared Dudley, Giannis, Pascal Siakam, and Monty Williams.

Still trying to find that 4 that Al Horford can't guard
 
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benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
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Nov 2, 2007
6,228
Santa Monica
You guys talk about the NBA like it’s still 1985. Our team defensive concept is to give the switch on the pick and roll and deal with the consequences. There are no 2-3 zones and nobody is clogging the lanes anymore. Brad doesn’t play big that often because other teams will just bring that man out in the pick and force us to switch and scramble. When we play more defenders who struggle to switch 1-5 we end up with more scrambling and more mismatches.

I agree completely that Morris and others have really struggled defensively. Although I don’t agree with Kyrie and think he’s a major culprit, id be more open to experimenting with bigger lineups if we are also going to blitz the screen or force our guards to work harder to avoid the switch. The way we defend it right now is setting those guys up to fail over larger minutes
Horford, Smart and Tatum are all plus defenders. Kyrie has played better defense this season so that leaves... Marcus Morris. All defensive metrics have shown him to be our worst defender for two seasons. The eye test shows MaMo can't stay in front of anyone, doesn't help around the rim, and loafs back on defense when he starts missing shots. Wish he didn't, but he does.

"Baynes and Horford clogged things up (on defense)" was what Brad Stevens said in last nights post game press conference. I thought it was kind of Old School also, but accurate nonetheless.

Stopping layups/dunks are important defensively. You can't double/trap guys like Kemba (which is the right move) if Marcus Morris is your 5 (as he was the last 2:40 in Sunday's game) since the Conga Line to the hoop would commence.

It all really comes down to matchups and if you think Al Horford is capable of playing perimeter defense. Watching Sexton try to take Al off the dribble and getting swatted by big Al is just more anecdotal evidence that he can.
 
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mcpickl

Member
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Jul 23, 2007
3,096
You guys talk about the NBA like it’s still 1985. Our team defensive concept is to give the switch on the pick and roll and deal with the consequences. There are no 2-3 zones and nobody is clogging the lanes anymore. Brad doesn’t play big that often because other teams will just bring that man out in the pick and force us to switch and scramble. When we play more defenders who struggle to switch 1-5 we end up with more scrambling and more mismatches.

I agree completely that Morris and others have really struggled defensively. Although I don’t agree with Kyrie and think he’s a major culprit, id be more open to experimenting with bigger lineups if we are also going to blitz the screen or force our guards to work harder to avoid the switch. The way we defend it right now is setting those guys up to fail over larger minutes
Do you have any actual evidence for this?

The teammate Horford had the best net rating with last year was Aron Baynes, at a ridiculous +12.9 per 100 possessions.
This year, in a limited sample with Baynes, Horford is an absurd +27.1 per 100 possessions.

Do we just ignore the obvious evidence to just say things like it's not 1985 anymore? Can't possibly play the two guys together even though it's been extremely successful. Just can't do it. Because, it's not 1985?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
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Jan 15, 2004
17,667
of course, you'd start Baynes/Horford vs Gasol/Siakam.

Please remind me, why am I concerned about 7pt/gm and 33% 3pt shooter, OG Anunoby, off the bench? Jaylen Brown or Gordon Hayward could more than handle that guy.

Why is the answer ZERO minutes over 7 games for a Baynes/Horford combo?


This is one of your oddest posts.
I swear you are trolling me but it's late, I'm up, so I'll take the bait. I'm as baffled by your position of why Zero minutes vs Toronto since over the past two seasons we have seen exactly zero minutes of Horford/Baynes in any Raptor lineup that wasn't Ibaka/Valanciunas or one game of Ibaka/Monroe. Horford has always defended Ibaka virtually mirroring his minutes on the floor the past two years.

1. We've played Toronto 4x this season. G4 Baynes was out injured. In the other 3 he came off the bench as to avoid the Horford/Siakam mismatch. They did however play together for 5 minutes in the second of these 3 games...…...the 5 minutes that Ibaka played with Valanciunas for Toronto. So, no "Of course you'd start Baynes/Horford vs Gasol/Siakam isn't what has occurred this season.

2. Last season we DID start Horford/Baynes in all 4 Raptor games...…...when Toronto started Valanciunas/Ibaka. Do you see the matchup trend here?

3. Why are you concerned about Horford defending a 2/3 like Anunoby? Probably the same reason Brad avoids the Horford/Siakam mismatch so our best rim protector isn't having to check a quicker, faster, and more athletic wing. Defensive transition matters and defending and closing out at the arc matters. Brad avoided this last year when we were shorthanded but now that we have wings who matchup well with the Raptors he isn't going to utilize them? Of course he is.....and he has.


Still trying to make sense of this bazaar post of yours.

Warriors 4/5: Green/Bogut or Cousins
Nets 4/5: Dudley/Allen
Hornets 4/5: Williams/Biyombo or Zeller
Bucks 4/5: Giannis/Lopez
Raptors 4/5: Siakam/Gasol

Yep, I'm more than comfortable with Al Horford guarding Draymond Green, Jared Dudley, Giannis, Pascal Siakam, and Monty Williams.

Still trying to find that 4 that Al Horford can't guard
If this were TheBig3 I'd have no problem clogging up the paint without having to be concerned with defensive transition or closing out on NBA 3-point shooters. Again, most of these matchups that you'd have no problem with haven't occurred the past two seasons due to Brad recognizing that we have better matchups than forcing Horford to defend versatile, athletic and/or quicker wings......even last year when we had little wing depth.
 
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benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,228
Santa Monica
1. Toronto earlier this season started Ibaka/Siakam.
Toronto now starts Gasol/Siakam as a classic big and 4.
Baynes/Horford matchup better with Gasol/Siakam.
PLUS Brad has recently declared that he plans to start playing bigger with Horford at the 4. Brad has wanted to play bigger for a while, but couldn't due to the health of Al and Aron.
Al played 60% of his minutes at the 4 on Tuesday night after averaging less than 5% of his minutes at the 4 for his first 60 games.

2. Sorry if I don't quiver in my boots at the thoughts of OG Anunoby. Horford would barely be on the floor with him. Anunoby plays 20 mpg, averages 7pts/gm, and is one of their worst 3pt threats. OG would play 2nd unit minutes against Hayward and Brown.

Brad is more concerned about stopping:
Kawhi Leonard
Danny Green
Kyle Lowry
Pascal Siakam
Marc Gasol
Serge Ibaka
Fred Van Vleet
and probably even Norman Powell

then worrying about some hypothetical Horford vs OG Anunoby matchup.

HRB, why are you doubling down on OG Anunoby, he has ZERO impact on how Brad Stevens fills out his rotations.
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
3,932
Lisbon, PT
... Brad has wanted to play bigger for a while, but couldn't due to the health of Al and Aron.
....
C’mon man, at least give me a citation (I kid)

At this point I think Brad’s biggest priority is finding a lineup that gets the defensive identity back. Even if Baynes clogs the offense a bit (and he gets some of that back by screening well to open up shooters), they can’t even beat Indy unless they become The Celtics again on D.

My guess right now is that Brad sees D+supernova Kyrie+Good Gordon as the only realistic path to a deep run, and is trying to find lineups that get them there.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,228
Santa Monica
I guess the small ball side won that one over the ponderous big man, so point to HRB.
a SoSH divided against itself cannot stand!

of course, I'm in the Lincoln camp, hand up and ready to defend.


FREE Baynes/Horford from the shackles of small ballism, a defenseless fad conjured up by offensive individuals.
 
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teddykgb

Member
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Jul 16, 2005
7,056
Chelmsford, MA
Do you have any actual evidence for this?

The teammate Horford had the best net rating with last year was Aron Baynes, at a ridiculous +12.9 per 100 possessions.
This year, in a limited sample with Baynes, Horford is an absurd +27.1 per 100 possessions.

Do we just ignore the obvious evidence to just say things like it's not 1985 anymore? Can't possibly play the two guys together even though it's been extremely successful. Just can't do it. Because, it's not 1985?
The problem is that you keep asking people to prove a negative. I can’t show you stats where Stevens played them for long periods in unfavorable matchups because he’s a smart enough coach to try to limit Baynes/Theis/Williams to situations they have a better chance of success in. Then you want to pick out per 100 stats and point to them as a reason to do it more when I see them as evidence that what he is doing is working. We simply don’t agree on the cause and effect relationship.

We know this coach and management team are highly analytically oriented. We certainly know this coach spends an inordinate amount of time watching film, using stats, etc. it’s exhausting to read this Horford at the 4 and the world is out to get Jaylen Brown drumbeat because it almost requires the entire management structure to be buffoons. It just doesn’t track, you need more evidence than what we have available to us publicly.

My post was pointing out real problems that we will need to resolve in a basketball x and o sense to play more of these lineups. I earnestly believe that if we send Baynes and Horford out there especially in close and late situations you will see teams force switches to get Baynes into their lead scorer. This is how we play defense, and he does a credible job when asked to do this but it’s very risky and puts a lot of pressure on the team defense. One of the reasons why Horford is so damn valuable is because he has shown the ability to handle those switches better than most players his size
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
16,364
We know this coach and management team are highly analytically oriented. We certainly know this coach spends an inordinate amount of time watching film, using stats, etc. it’s exhausting to read this Horford at the 4 and the world is out to get Jaylen Brown drumbeat because it almost requires the entire management structure to be buffoons. It just doesn’t track, you need more evidence than what we have available to us publicly.
I get all of this and I actually agree with you but given this paragraph, I still don't see why they keep running MaMo out there at the end of the game.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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28,057
I get all of this and I actually agree with you but given this paragraph, I still don't see why they keep running MaMo out there at the end of the game.
Its a mystery given his performance this year, particularly on the defensive end. So absent a statistical case for playing him, I think we have to conclude that its one of the following reasons:

-The Cs have proprietary data that show Morris is actually better than/gives them an advantage than the publicly available data suggests.

-Stevens is willfully ignoring the data that show how bad Morris is defensively because he values his offense more highly.

-Stevens has no actual clue what he is doing.

-Some other reason related to chemistry/morale/personnel management.

I tend to think that the last reason listed makes the most sense but there appear to be quite a few people here who think Stevens does not know what he is doing. As I have stated before, its hard to argue with that view given the results.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,228
Santa Monica
The problem is that you keep asking people to prove a negative. I can’t show you stats where Stevens played them for long periods in unfavorable matchups because he’s a smart enough coach to try to limit Baynes/Theis/Williams to situations they have a better chance of success in. Then you want to pick out per 100 stats and point to them as a reason to do it more when I see them as evidence that what he is doing is working. We simply don’t agree on the cause and effect relationship.

We know this coach and management team are highly analytically oriented. We certainly know this coach spends an inordinate amount of time watching film, using stats, etc. it’s exhausting to read this Horford at the 4 and the world is out to get Jaylen Brown drumbeat because it almost requires the entire management structure to be buffoons. It just doesn’t track, you need more evidence than what we have available to us publicly.

My post was pointing out real problems that we will need to resolve in a basketball x and o sense to play more of these lineups. I earnestly believe that if we send Baynes and Horford out there especially in close and late situations you will see teams force switches to get Baynes into their lead scorer. This is how we play defense, and he does a credible job when asked to do this but it’s very risky and puts a lot of pressure on the team defense. One of the reasons why Horford is so damn valuable is because he has shown the ability to handle those switches better than most players his size
No one has said, implied or thinks they are buffoons. I answered a similar post from DeJesus above (#3475). And I think its entirely fair that you and DeJesus defend the Celtic brain trust, "I'll reiterate, they have forgotten more about basketball than I'll ever know". In fact, I was on the Brad thread last year calling him one of the top 3 coaches in hoops (w/ Coach K and Pop). I'd still call him one of the best young coaches in the game.

The Celtics tried something different this year, it hasn't worked and they are in the process of adjusting. That's what intelligent, analytical people do. Brad says they would have adjusted earlier if Horford and Baynes weren't banged up (kudos to lovegtm) ;)

-So now that they are in the process of playing bigger, how do you feel about the Baynes/Horford combo?
-Maybe the front office has seen similar results as mcpickl and agrees with his assessment?
-Don't you think Brad understands late/tight situations, how to expand the use of a bigger lineup to create mismatches for Horford in the post?
-Why would they compound their massive underperformance this season by starting to play bigger this late in the year if Brad & their analytics guys didn't think it would work?
-Wouldn't that make it look like they are panicking just prior to the playoffs?
-Aren't they trying to rest Al Horford, due to his knee and lower back issues?
-Does playing the 4 with Baynes create less wear on Al Horford?
-I agree, Al Horford is extremely valuable and talented. Why don't you think he can succeed playing the 4 for more than 5% of his minutes when he has played both the 4 and 5 his entire career?
 
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JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
9,500
Its a mystery given his performance this year, particularly on the defensive end. So absent a statistical case for playing him, I think we have to conclude that its one of the following reasons:

-The Cs have proprietary data that show Morris is actually better than/gives them an advantage than the publicly available data suggests.

-Stevens is willfully ignoring the data that show how bad Morris is defensively because he values his offense more highly.

-Stevens has no actual clue what he is doing.

-Some other reason related to chemistry/morale/personnel management.

I tend to think that the last reason listed makes the most sense but there appear to be quite a few people here who think Stevens does not know what he is doing. As I have stated before, its hard to argue with that view given the results.
Sometimes people and organizations just develop blindspots, I think Mook might be an example of that for whatever reason.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Sometimes people and organizations just develop blindspots, I think Mook might be an example of that for whatever reason.
Perhaps.

But again, this is a team that unceremoniously traded away a fan favorite "star" after he battled through injuries and the death of his sibling to play in the playoffs. They did so bloodlessly because they knew he was damaged goods and they had a shot at a clear performance upgrade (side note that I am willing to bet that IT is still a bigger fan favorite at this point).

I find it very difficult to see this club having a blindspot about a three-and-no-D wing like Mook. That said if they keep using him the same way during the playoffs, I will need to question my assumptions. We probably all will...
 

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
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Perhaps.

But again, this is a team that unceremoniously traded away a fan favorite "star" after he battled through injuries and the death of his sibling to play in the playoffs. They did so bloodlessly because they knew he was damaged goods and they had a shot at a clear performance upgrade (side note that I am willing to bet that IT is still a bigger fan favorite at this point).

I find it very difficult to see this club having a blindspot about a three-and-no-D wing like Mook. That said if they keep using him the same way during the playoffs, I will need to question my assumptions. We probably all will...
At that point I’d just have to shrug and say “Klutch?” And I don’t even particularly buy that theory.