Celtics in 18-19

mcpickl

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The problem is that you keep asking people to prove a negative. I can’t show you stats where Stevens played them for long periods in unfavorable matchups because he’s a smart enough coach to try to limit Baynes/Theis/Williams to situations they have a better chance of success in. Then you want to pick out per 100 stats and point to them as a reason to do it more when I see them as evidence that what he is doing is working. We simply don’t agree on the cause and effect relationship.
No sir, not asking you to prove a negative.

You're saying Baynes/Horford can't play together.

The stats show that they can. I didn't pick out 100 stats. I picked one. Their incredible net rating on the floor together, a huge chunk of which was played against starting lineups last year not thirty years ago,

So I ask do you have any evidence, like any, to show they can't play together. Other than saying it's not 1985 anymore. I'll cede that point, you're correct it's not 1985.

We know this coach and management team are highly analytically oriented. We certainly know this coach spends an inordinate amount of time watching film, using stats, etc. it’s exhausting to read this Horford at the 4 and the world is out to get Jaylen Brown drumbeat because it almost requires the entire management structure to be buffoons. It just doesn’t track, you need more evidence than what we have available to us publicly.
Well, could I raise the possibility that they know Baynes/Horford could, and has, worked analytically but haven't had much opportunity to go back to it?

They start the season with Hayward in the starting lineup. Very reasonable, he's an all star who's a clear starter.

That doesn't work, they remove him from the starting lineup for Baynes the next two games. They lose both. Next game Horford is out so both Baynes/Morris start.

The Celtics are now 10-9, and Stevens sticks with a hot Morris over Baynes for this game. They lose and Smart enters the lineup they've used for most games since for a hurt Jaylen the next night and they win 4 straight.

The next 19 games, Horford and Baynes are never active together due to injury.

Baynes returns, but there is no reason to change the starting lineup as the Celtics have their best stretch of the season to this point, going 8-1.

Baynes injured again, gone for 11 more games.

Baynes returns March 3rd. I think this is the earliest point Baynes would have a shot to get the starting spot back as Morris has cooled off and the team is still scuffling. They end up playing their second best stretch of basketball, winning 5 of 6 starting with the West coast trip. They lose the next two, then Horford+Baynes not avaiable for the next two losses.

That brings us to their last game, the first game Horford/Baynes both started since November 21st.

I don't think we know that they don't want to play Horford/Baynes together since there hasn't been a ton of opportunity to do it in my opinion. If they're both healthy down the stretch here and they don't return to it, I'd say that it's pretty clear they don't want them out there together. Just don't think we're there yet even though it's extremely late in the season.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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The problem is that you keep asking people to prove a negative. I can’t show you stats where Stevens played them for long periods in unfavorable matchups because he’s a smart enough coach to try to limit Baynes/Theis/Williams to situations they have a better chance of success in. Then you want to pick out per 100 stats and point to them as a reason to do it more when I see them as evidence that what he is doing is working. We simply don’t agree on the cause and effect relationship.

We know this coach and management team are highly analytically oriented. We certainly know this coach spends an inordinate amount of time watching film, using stats, etc. it’s exhausting to read this Horford at the 4 and the world is out to get Jaylen Brown drumbeat because it almost requires the entire management structure to be buffoons. It just doesn’t track, you need more evidence than what we have available to us publicly.

My post was pointing out real problems that we will need to resolve in a basketball x and o sense to play more of these lineups. I earnestly believe that if we send Baynes and Horford out there especially in close and late situations you will see teams force switches to get Baynes into their lead scorer. This is how we play defense, and he does a credible job when asked to do this but it’s very risky and puts a lot of pressure on the team defense. One of the reasons why Horford is so damn valuable is because he has shown the ability to handle those switches better than most players his size
100% Bingo!

You're saying Baynes/Horford can't play together.
Literally nobody is saying this.

We are discussing specific matchups and how it is difficult to play two bigs against teams who space the floor. Brad in his recent interviews discusses matchups and how it is difficult to play two bigs in today’s game against teams who space the floor but how in some matchups we can.

You have not discussed matchups you have simply repeated generalities of them playing together while reciting stats when Brad has put them in favorable matchups.
 
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benhogan

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100% Bingo!


Literally nobody is saying this.

You have not discussed matchups you have simply repeated generalities of them playing together while reciting stats when Brad has put them in favorable matchups.
So whenever Baynes/Horford play together its a "favorable matchup" and that's why it has worked extremely well for 2yrs now.

And your claim is Horford at the 5 > Horford at the 4

What seems to be the problem when the opponent plays small/spaces the floor? We have all these fantastic wings to pair with Al Horford at the 5.

Why can't any of Brown, Tatum, MaMo, Hayward when paired with Horford have a higher net efficiency than Baynes/Horford?

That's 7 opportunities to do better, against the matchup you want, over the last two separate seasons. And Baynes/Horford both times topped the 7 other pairings.

There is no way that lowly old Aron Baynes is better than Brown, Hayward or Tatum.

Why doesn't our small ball unit produce like our big unit since Brad is always correct with matchups?

Maybe Horford at the 4 is greater than or equal to Horford at the 5?
(question for the Board not HRB, I know where he stands)


and could the pairing of Horford/Davis next season be extremely efficient
 
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mcpickl

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100% Bingo!


Literally nobody is saying this.

We are discussing specific matchups and how it is difficult to play two bigs against teams who space the floor. Brad in his recent interviews discusses matchups and how it is difficult to play two bigs in today’s game against teams who space the floor but how in some matchups we can.

You have not discussed matchups you have simply repeated generalities of them playing together while reciting stats when Brad has put them in favorable matchups.
This is straight bullshit. Literally you have been saying this. All year long.

Game's too fast you said.
Everyone's playing smaller you said.
Horford is playing out of position at the 4 you said.

I don't need to discuss matchups because I've said the same thing all year. I would start them against every matchup. There's not one starting combo at the 4/5 that I'd prefer Morris/Horford start over Horford/Baynes.

Are you effing serious right now or are you just trolling? Not sure which one would be worse.
 

Nick Kaufman

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As a neutral observer, I do have to say that all arguments about Baines usage last season remind me of the Ross-Rachel argument about whether Ross cheated on Rachel.

"Barnes didn't play with Horford all that much!".

"We were on a break!"
 

TripleOT

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One element about playing Baynes more that hasn't been discussed much here, is Baynes is the one player on this roster that will put his body on someone all game. To me, having a big body to muck it up in the paint is valuable to a guy like Horford, who is an older big and isn't all that physical, except for the few spots in a game when he really needs to be.

Alleged tough guy Morris hasn't showed me a lot of physicality this season. If the brain trust thinks they're better off with an undersized, perimeter oriented 4 to pair with AL at the 5, either Brown or Hayward to me is a better option to create a smaller line up, with Tatum or Brown/Hayward covering the opponent's small-4.

In general, I like a starting lineup of AL, Baymes, Tatum, Smart, and Kyrie, for the muck-it-up factor that Baynes brings, and also because there is one less offensive mouth to feed in that starting lineup. They should be able to put up big points to start a game, and if for some reason the other team is torching our 4 and 5, there's an easy solution. Sub in MaMo or Hayward, or Theis, or whatever is needed to make an adjustment.
 

lovegtm

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One element about playing Baynes more that hasn't been discussed much here, is Baynes is the one player on this roster that will put his body on someone all game. To me, having a big body to muck it up in the paint is valuable to a guy like Horford, who is an older big and isn't all that physical, except for the few spots in a game when he really needs to be.

Alleged tough guy Morris hasn't showed me a lot of physicality this season. If the brain trust thinks they're better off with an undersized, perimeter oriented 4 to pair with AL at the 5, either Brown or Hayward to me is a better option to create a smaller line up, with Tatum or Brown/Hayward covering the opponent's small-4.

In general, I like a starting lineup of AL, Baymes, Tatum, Smart, and Kyrie, for the muck-it-up factor that Baynes brings, and also because there is one less offensive mouth to feed in that starting lineup. They should be able to put up big points to start a game, and if for some reason the other team is torching our 4 and 5, there's an easy solution. Sub in MaMo or Hayward, or Theis, or whatever is needed to make an adjustment.
You'd also imagine MaMo would be less exposed defending more 2nd unit guys.
 

JakeRae

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I don't even remember what side of this discussion I am on.
Personally, I’m on the start anyone except Morris side. I basically unilaterally would prefer any of Baynes, Hayward, or Brown starting over Morris. Among those three I think it’s a toss up and matchup dependent.

My working theory for awhile, unarticulated here, is that Stevens has been hoping Hayward will be ready to start by the playoffs but also recognizes you can only change the rotation so many times. So, Morris has kept his role for stability pending Stevens deciding on a playoff rotation and shifting to it.

Unrelated to all of the above, people have drawn analogies to the 2011 Red Sox. People should remember that the result of that season was the Sox making a change from a very very good manager to one that turned out to not be so great. We should learn from that lesson and not ignore everything we knew about Brad going into this season because of one season of underperformance.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I don't even remember what side of this discussion I am on.
The one that wishes we could move on from a debate for which there will be no winners?

In the end, Stevens and the Cs will continue to do what they decide to do. Sad to say but no amount of input from our crowd-sourced coaching wisdom will change that unless/until bayneshogan or HRB assume a front office or head coaching role with the team (my only request is we bring Rocco back and give him choice seats near the restroom at the Garden).

Back on topic, one thing we can all *hopefully* agree on is that it will be nice to have TimeLord back for tonight's game. He may not play much but this team can use his energy and ability to spell the other positionless bigs for the balance of the schedule.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My working theory for awhile, unarticulated here, is that Stevens has been hoping Hayward will be ready to start by the playoffs but also recognizes you can only change the rotation so many times.
In the end, Stevens and the Cs will continue to do what they decide to do. Sad to say but no amount of input from our crowd-sourced coaching wisdom will change that unless/until bayneshogan or HRB assume a front office or head coaching role with the team (my only request is we bring Rocco back and give him choice seats near the restroom at the Garden).
Brad has already said what he's planning on doing but the twin towers vs teams who space supporters continue to ignore two years of evidence as well as his recent words that the lineup will change on a game-by-game basis based on matchups.

“That will be a game-to-game decision on who we start. I told our two guys today, and you need guys like Morris who are flexible like that. I thought Morris came in, and I thought his two 3’s in the late third, fourth, whatever it was, were huge. But when we can start double big, we certainly clog things up the way we need to on that end of the floor.”
 

benhogan

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Brad has already said what he's planning on doing but the twin towers vs teams who space supporters continue to ignore two years of evidence as well as his recent words that the lineup will change on a game-by-game basis based on matchups.

“That will be a game-to-game decision on who we start. I told our two guys today, and you need guys like Morris who are flexible like that. I thought Morris came in, and I thought his two 3’s in the late third, fourth, whatever it was, were huge. But when we can start double big, we certainly clog things up the way we need to on that end of the floor.”
In your words (post #3500) on Monday:
"I’m anti-Horford at the 4 for sure......because he’s not a 4 and took one for the team last year. However there are always some matchups where playing them together is the correct play which is evidence by Horfords. numbers at the 4 in these few advantageous lineups. Even if Horford is as effective chasing wings 25-feet from the basket playing out of position as he is defending the paint you are losing a ton on the other end by playing Baynes over Morris or Tatum. As close as Brad is to losing this team by starting and inferior player with guys in contract years this would have been the final nail in the coffin." -HRB 3/25/19

You've flip-flopped your position so much, post to post, day to day and since the start of the season, it's impossible to keep up with.

So Brad is going to lose this team, right? That's where you stood on Monday if Baynes/Horford started
 
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PedrosRedGlove

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"Defensively they clog the paint and that's what we need, and they have great chemistry together at the 4/5."

Kyrie Irving post-game when asked about Horford and Baynes.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Setting aside the Baynes/Horford stuff, Brad also took Mook Moreisless off the floor at the end and replaced him with Juice. Juice >>>Mook. Advances analytics and otherwise.
 

Imbricus

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Kyrie likes playing with Baynes because he sets screens.
Baynes is undeniably a great screen setter. I can see why any shooting guard would want to be on the floor with him. I wish he could teach that skill to Time Lord, who sets screens like he's going through the motions and just wants to get it over with.
 

lovegtm

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Personally, I’m on the start anyone except Morris side. I basically unilaterally would prefer any of Baynes, Hayward, or Brown starting over Morris. Among those three I think it’s a toss up and matchup dependent.

My working theory for awhile, unarticulated here, is that Stevens has been hoping Hayward will be ready to start by the playoffs but also recognizes you can only change the rotation so many times. So, Morris has kept his role for stability pending Stevens deciding on a playoff rotation and shifting to it.

Unrelated to all of the above, people have drawn analogies to the 2011 Red Sox. People should remember that the result of that season was the Sox making a change from a very very good manager to one that turned out to not be so great. We should learn from that lesson and not ignore everything we knew about Brad going into this season because of one season of underperformance.
This is by far the best theory I’ve seen so far re Morris. It also makes sense for Brown: they don’t want to put him back in the starting lineup unless he’s going to stay there (ie they think Hayward isn’t ready for it).

If your theory is right, we’ll see a lot more of Brown and Baynes in the playoffs, and maybe even down the stretch here to get comfortable with those lineups, depending on matchup.
 

lovegtm

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I think we can all agree that this team has finally figured it all out.
Lol, well played.

I will say though, Indy is a great 1st round team to get. The Cs should be able to beat them in 5-6, but the Pacers force you to focus and bring your A game in a way that the lower seeds don’t, which could have good carryover effects. And if the Celtics are going to have a chance, it’s going to have to come from a refocused defense.
 

TripleOT

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Brad's pre-game media interview I heard on the radio endorsed the AL/Baynes due as the team's best starting line up. Kyrie endorsed Baynes because of his physicality. Neither mentioned the danger of AL (or Baynes) having to defend 4s. Stevens said something to the effect of "If it's not working to start a game, we can just make a change and go smaller."
 

bigq

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Brad's pre-game media interview I heard on the radio endorsed the AL/Baynes due as the team's best starting line up. Kyrie endorsed Baynes because of his physicality. Neither mentioned the danger of AL (or Baynes) having to defend 4s. Stevens said something to the effect of "If it's not working to start a game, we can just make a change and go smaller."
It seems that Brad and Kyrie know what side of the discussion they are on. Baynes was outstanding last night. His defense, screen setting and rebounding had a big impact on the game. All of Australia should be starting unless matchups dictate otherwise in which case Hayward or Brown should get the nod. I hope MaMo never gets another start unless the game is truly meaningless.
 

BigSoxFan

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It seems that Brad and Kyrie know what side of the discussion they are on. Baynes was outstanding last night. His defense, screen setting and rebounding had a big impact on the game. All of Australia should be starting unless matchups dictate otherwise in which case Hayward or Brown should get the nod. I hope MaMo never gets another start unless the game is truly meaningless.
Agreed. I like the Baynes/Horford combo starting but if we go away from it for whatever reason, for the love of god get MaMo out.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Hope Brad gets on these guys for all the sloppy moon ball, half-hook, no look passes Rozier, Smart and Kyrie are obsessed with. Good win last night but they should have won by 10+ without all the slop and unforced errors.
 

benhogan

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media interview I heard on the radio endorsed the AL/Baynes due as the team's best starting line up. Kyrie endorsed Baynes because of his physicality. Neither mentioned the danger of AL (or Baynes) having to defend 4s. Stevens said something to the effect of "If it's not working to start a game, we can just make a change and go smaller."
Nice, 100% agree. Was this pre-game today or last night?

There is no danger with Al Horford covering a single starting 4 in the NBA. NOT ONE. Not Wilson Chandler, not Finney-Smith, not PJ Tucker, not Draymond Green, not Pascal Siakam, etc. The red flag with Al being unable to chase around quick 4's is completely false. Defensively the Celtics switch on the perimeter, they always have. Horford's more than fine on the perimeter, in fact, he's good at it. His wingspan helps challenge the 3pt shot and he's more than capable of staying in front of wings or swatting their shots around the rim. That's why the Celtics have been their best with Horford at the 4. And its why Al was playing his best at the 4 in 2016-17 (w/Amir Johnson), in 2017-18 (w/Aron Baynes), and this season w/Baynes, TL & Theis. Horford's outperformance at the 4 wasn't driven by matchups in 2016-17 or 2017-18, and it's just an excuse that's being used by people that got it wrong this season. Its the same false narrative that playing two 6'10" players at the 4/5 is abnormally big OR a Twin Towers* pairing.

*Twin Towers
was originally 7'4" Ralph Sampson & 7' Akeem Olajuwon
 

NomarsFool

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I'm not criticizing Al, but did you guys notice how many times they threw the ball away while trying to pass the ball to Horford? It was like at least 4X in the first half alone. Not sure what was going on there.
 

lovegtm

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Nice, 100% agree. Was this pre-game today or last night?

There is no danger with Al Horford covering a single starting 4 in the NBA. NOT ONE. Not Wilson Chandler, not Finney-Smith, not PJ Tucker, not Draymond Green, not Pascal Siakam, etc. The red flag with Al being unable to chase around quick 4's is completely false. Defensively the Celtics switch on the perimeter, they always have. Horford's more than fine on the perimeter, in fact, he's good at it. His wingspan helps challenge the 3pt shot and he's more than capable of staying in front of wings or swatting their shots around the rim. That's why the Celtics have been their best with Horford at the 4. And its why Al was playing his best at the 4 in 2016-17 (w/Amir Johnson), in 2017-18 (w/Aron Baynes), and this season w/Baynes, TL & Theis. Horford's outperformance at the 4 wasn't driven by matchups in 2016-17 or 2017-18, and it's just an excuse that's being used by people that got it wrong this season. Its the same false narrative that playing two 6'10" players at the 4/5 is abnormally big OR a Twin Towers* pairing.

*Twin Towers
was originally 7'4" Ralph Sampson & 7' Akeem Olajuwon
Everybody, including Brad Stevens and Kyrie Irving, agrees with you. The only person who doesn’t is HRB, who, for all his valuable insight re hoops, is well-known for never being able to admit when he’s wrong, to a hilarious degree.

Shall we all move to a new topic now? The playoffs are coming, the Celtics seem to have some idea of the lineups they’re going to use there, but there’s a ton of other work to be done.
 

benhogan

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Everybody, including Brad Stevens and Kyrie Irving, agrees with you. The only person who doesn’t is HRB, who, for all his valuable insight re hoops, is well-known for never being able to admit when he’s wrong, to a hilarious degree.

Shall we all move to a new topic now? The playoffs are coming, the Celtics seem to have some idea of the lineups they’re going to use there, but there’s a ton of other work to be done.
You know it and truth be told mcpickl got this more right than me.

We even got Jaylen minutes > MaMo minutes last night, what else is there to fix other than

HRB's mea culpa :banana:
 
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lovegtm

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You know it and truth be told mcpickl got this more right than me.

We even got Jaylen minutes > MaMo minutes last night, what else is there to fix other than

HRB's mea culpa :banana:
It’s also satisfying that to some degree we’re starting to understand some of the mysteries of the season.

1. Brad wanted to try more Baynes as the season went on, but the injuries were a real factor.

2. The team kept waiting for Gordon to turn the corner fully to put him in the starting lineup, but it hasn’t happened yet, so they kept MaMo there so as not to jerk Jaylen around.

3. Danny would have gotten away with it all too, if it weren’t for those kids and their damn dog.
 

southshoresoxfan

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Hayward’s usage rate and not starting over Morris is starting to really grind my gears.

The explosiveness is mainly back. The shots there. The D has been very good. I’m sick of watching Morris. Losing him and Rozier this offseason without any other moves is a net plus.
 

NomarsFool

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You don't like watching MaMo back in, back in, back in, turn-around fadeaway that goes hard off the back rim?
 

Koufax

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Last 15 games, Hayward +/- = 1.9 (second best among rotation players); MaMo -5.6 (worst on the entire team by far) .
 

benhogan

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Last 15 games, Hayward +/- = 1.9 (second best among rotation players); MaMo -5.6 (worst on the entire team by far) .
MaMo is by far our worst defensive player for 2 years running, putting him in the position to help defend the rim borders on comical.

Why stop at 15 games?

Marcus Morris Sr (109.7 off / 108.3 def / 1.4 net ) and
Terry Rozier (104.1 off / 104.7 def / -.6 net) are the two worst rotational players on this seasons team. And they are massively trending down.

Funny enough they were also the two worst rotational players on the 2017-18 team:
Marcus Morris Sr (105.5 off / 105 def / .5 net)
Terry Rozier (103.3 off / 100.7 def / 2.6 net)

And for all the hoopla they received in the playoffs, they were 2 of the weaker rotational players for the Celtics in the 2017-18 playoffs
Mamo (106.2/104.7)
Rozier (106.8/104.9)

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season

https://stats.nba.com/players/advanced/?sort=TEAM_ABBREVIATION&dir=-1&Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season
 
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TripleOT

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If Morris and Rozier collided in practice and were both injured enough to be out for the season, the Celtics would have a much better chance in the post season. Kyrie and Smart can easily play the 48 PG minutes. AL, Baynes, and Theis can handle the big minutes, and the Celtics have three very good wings, in Tatum, Brown, and Hayward, with all three capable of handling minutes at the 4 in a small lineup.

Unfortunately, Stevens will play both these guys in the playoffs f they're healthy. The most was can hope for is they play the least minutes of the rotation guys.
 

NomarsFool

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I think in an alternative universe, Terry Rozier knows his role and is inserted a couple of times into Celtics games as a game-changer to push the ball up the court with lightening speed and be a defensive menace on opposing teams' quicker guards. Unfortunately, in our universe he believes he's auditioning to be the next Steph Curry and throws up contested 3PAs with 18 seconds on the clock.

The combined stat lines for Rozier and MaMo are just atrocious. How many times can one go 1-8 or 1-9 and still have the confidence to keep shooting?
 

Deathofthebambino

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Wow, I've been gone for a month, and it appears we're still having the same debates. I've been saying it almost all year. MaMo, and to a lesser extent, Rozier, are killing this team. MaMo is playing the 4th most mpg on the team at 27.9, and Rozier is sitting at 8th at 22.9mpg. Baynes isn't even in the top 8. You simply can't play 8 guys 22.9mpg in today's NBA and expect to win all the time. The only two C's averaging more than 30mpg are Kyrie (33.1) and Tatum (31.3). The top teams in the league don't do this, and they have more blowouts than we do. Golden State has 6 guys averaging more than 18.9mpg. Durant/Thompson/Curry all play more than Kyrie, who leads the C's by far. The 5 starters in Houston all average at least 32.1mpg. The 76ers have 5 guys averaging at least 31.4mpg. Kawhi/Lowery/Siakam average 34.2/33.9/32.0....

The problem as I see it, and I've said it before, is if Brad benches Morris, it's going to turn into a shitshow. I think he's the real leader/cancer in that clubhouse, and Brad is now afraid of upsetting him, for fear of losing the room. We've seen Morris go after Jaylen a few times this year, so putting Morris back in the 2nd unit with Jaylen will probably be a disaster, and benching Morris for Jaylen won't go over well. God, I want Morris to break his fucking leg so bad. And Terry Rozier should be playing 10 fucking minutes a night. 10, in blowouts.
 

bosox79

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I think if Rozier wasn't on the team, Morris would be far less of a problem. If you took Rozier's minutes and replaced them, you could have Kyrie, Hayward, Brown, Tatum and Horford all at 33 minutes a game while changing nothing else.

27.9 is probably too many minutes for MaMo, but how many do you think he should be getting? I'd say between 20-25 minutes. And I agree with you on Rozier, he should be playing about as much as Semi.

Maybe the rested legs will pay dividends in the playoffs though.
 

4 6 3 DP

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What death said. Morris is the problem on this team. His interest level is solely in jacking up shots.