Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016

Eddie Jurak

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I think PHL-LAL-BRK looks like it will hold. It would be nice if the nets could swap with the Lakers, but it doesn't seem likely.

the biggest movement is going to be in Minnesota can get to pick 13. Obviously it would also be nice if Dallas dropped to 8-10.
If the Nets start to threaten the Lakers, they will just bump up Kobe's minutes.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think PHL-LAL-BRK looks like it will hold. It would be nice if the nets could swap with the Lakers, but it doesn't seem likely.

the biggest movement is going to be in Minnesota can get to pick 13. Obviously it would also be nice if Dallas dropped to 8-10.
Minnesota is down to the 5 position. I've basically written that pick off. Dallas' floor is probably 15-16 unless Dirk gets hurt.
 

swingin val

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The 8 -14 seeds in the west have only 3 games separating them, with MIn only being 2 games back of the 8 seed. Not sure anyone should write them off
 

Tuff Ghost

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The Nets game was painful. Wayne Ellington, who has been averaging 15 minutes and 2.5 3 pt attempts per game, played 32+ minutes and went 7 for 9 on 3's. Brutal. At least they keep throwing 34 year old Joe Johnson and his .441 true shooting percentage out there for around 35 minutes a night.
 

smastroyin

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On the other hand, the nice thing about this type of cheering is that the Heat loss brings the Celtics within half a game of home court for the first round. Obviously there is a long way to go, and things are tight. C's are also only half a game out of the lottery.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Nice late comeback for Orlando tonight, continuing the Nets' trend of not having the gas to finish games off when the opponent picks up the intensity.

While there are several West teams threatening to tank, at least they'll pick up wins against each other all season. Utah, Portland, Denver and Minny in one division. Phoenix, Sacto and LAL in another. Minny is only 2 behind Utah for the 8th seed.

Good year for a strong East.
 
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Koufax

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It's not the way we wanted it to happen, but the Lakers picked up a win tonight, bringing the Nets a little closer to the number 2 spot.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Pelicans take out the Mavs. Makes a crappy night a little less crappy.
The Mavs are primed for a nice little downswing. I have faith in them missing the playoffs and landing in the lottery.

Edit: Ooooops nevermind. I thought there was one more solid team in the West to overtake them for the 8-seed. Go T-Wolves for the double dip!!
 

Cellar-Door

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Phoenix in absolute free fall, Bledsoe had knee surgery, Morris is trying to force a trade, they have no incentive to win, and they are only a game and a half up on Brooklyn. They might make a serious run at a top 3 pick. worrying.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yup, Phoenix is now in the 4 position and only 0.5 "behind" the Nets. I'd be pretty surprised if the Nets finish worse than them unless Lopez hurts his foot again soon.
 

smastroyin

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Since the Celtrics are 1-2 against the Nets, they deserve whatever shitty fate is thrown their way.

I realize you have to treat every game equally, but there is no excuse for these guys to put up such shitty performances (all three games, really) against a team that it helps them so much to beat.
 

BigSoxFan

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Problem is that the current players really could care less about the Nets pick. Many of them won't be around in the next 2-3 years anyways.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Players generally don't care about the draft at all since the implication of needing help from a teenager is perceived as an insult. So I understand if they aren't necessarily going any harder than usual, but either way there's no excuse for the no-shows against bottom feeders when you're fighting for a playoff spot in a tough conference.

Ainge is probably losing it over these losses to Brooklyn though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Players generally don't care about the draft at all since the implication of needing help from a teenager is perceived as an insult. So I understand if they aren't necessarily going any harder than usual, but either way there's no excuse for the no-shows against bottom feeders when you're fighting for a playoff spot in a tough conference.

Ainge is probably losing it over these losses to Brooklyn though.
Brooklyn is a difficult matchup for us as Brook is a terrible matchup with his length against our bigs especially when Amir isn't in the lineup. Sully has no chance against him. On the other end we don't have the high scoring wings to take advantage of the Nets horrific defenders at the 2/3 but without this Johnson and Boganitotonovitch aren't exposed by us as they are by others. The Nets aren't as good as we made them look yesterday however their matchups give us fits when both sides show up (the Nets didn't in the first meeting, we did however yesterday).
 

smastroyin

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I didn't mean to imply that the players should care more or less, but Brad Stevens and the coaching staff should, no?

And, the players should care about amassing wins against the worst teams, matchup issues or no. Give them 2 of these 3 horrible losses (including the Lakers) and they are up there with Toronto and Atlanta for the 2 seed in the conference (1/2 behind with a game in hand). Instead they are 8th. That speaks to how tight the conference is right now, but that isn't likely to change too much going forward.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Brooklyn is a difficult matchup for us as Brook is a terrible matchup with his length against our bigs especially when Amir isn't in the lineup. Sully has no chance against him. On the other end we don't have the high scoring wings to take advantage of the Nets horrific defenders at the 2/3 but without this Johnson and Boganitotonovitch aren't exposed by us as they are by others. The Nets aren't as good as we made them look yesterday however their matchups give us fits when both sides show up (the Nets didn't in the first meeting, we did however yesterday).
I think if you're the C's you have to try to limit Brook's FGA to the 15-16 range instead of the 20+ he's taken in both wins. He's slow and not a great passer or quick decision-maker. C's should be quick enough to throw a bunch of double teams at him and recover. Brooklyn doesn't generally shoot often or well enough to make you pay anyway. Yesterday they weren't quick enough unfortunately.
 

BigSoxFan

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Phoenix getting destroyed by the Lakers early. They are going to be a real problem for us.
 

NoXInNixon

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In the other hand, if Kobe misses significant time, the Lakers could easily pass Brooklyn. They're such a different team when he's not in the court.
 

Cellar-Door

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PHI/MIN tonight. Basically a win-win, either PHI gets to 4 wins or MIN moves closer to the #12 spot.
 

BigSoxFan

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PHI/MIN tonight. Basically a win-win, either PHI gets to 4 wins or MIN moves closer to the #12 spot.
Philly doesn't really impact us anymore. They probably won't even reach the Nets' current win total. Twolves are 3.5 games out of the 8 spot so still small hope there.
 

Cellar-Door

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Philly doesn't really impact us anymore. They probably won't even reach the Nets' current win total. Twolves are 3.5 games out of the 8 spot so still small hope there.
Philly has really improved with the additions of Ish Smith and Landry (and reducing Okafor's minutes).
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Despite rooting against Dallas all season, I can't ever get upset watching Dirk sink off-balance fadeaways. One of life's little pleasures.
 

ALiveH

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given the roster crunch, it could make sense to literally trade all 8 of our picks this year just to move the Brooklyn pick up one slot or to the #1 overall. Sadly, that might not be enough to get it done. But I guess, in principle Danny should be trying to target specific players he loves and package multiple picks to get them. Also, he should be looking at trading for future picks.
 

nighthob

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I prefer to think that Boston ends up #1 and then uses the rest of the picks to move up in the mid first.
 

ALiveH

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I'll drink to that.

Just looking at the overall body of work, Danny has demonstrated the ability to draft & develop mid-late 1sts & the occasional 2nd round picks into solid rotational players / starters more consistently than just about any other NBA GM. But because of the depth of the roster, the recent draftees Young, Rozier, Hunter, Mickey are not getting NBA minutes which will really hurt their development. This situation is likely to only get worse with an increased focus on winning now, plus the upcoming roster crunch. As an aside, of the recent 4 I am most bullish on Hunter who already has one elite & useful NBA skill.

Looking at things from the perspective of asset value - young NBA guys who don't get minutes are rapidly depreciating assets, regardless of their hype / promise / pedigree. Danny is already stuffed with them to a certain degree and that will get a lot worse if he does nothing.

It seems like the Marcus Smarts of the world (high lottery picks) can get their minutes & help the team whether or not they eventually develop into superstars. Barring lucking into a massively undervalued player, it is tough to envision a scenario where another late 1st round pick helps this team.

I'm also curious about people's opinions about the quality at the top end of the draft and where the drop-offs occur.
 

sox311

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That's what she said.
I prefer to think that Boston ends up #1 and then uses the rest of the picks to move up in the mid first.
We saw last year that other teams aren't going to take the pupu platter of picks and give up a better pick. Or else we would have Porzingas or Winslow. (Or was Danny wanting to get Winslow up at four as well in dealing with the Knicks?)

So yes, I am very with you in preferring to think, and pray, that Boston ends up #1!

And ALiveH, I agree, I would trade all the picks we have in the next three years to be able to get the number one slot in this draft, and maybe even to get the number two. Otherwise they will just be spent on the Fab Mello's of the world. Or maybe we get lucky and get a Jimmy Butler or Draymon Green, but won't have the playing time to give them and they don't develop. It is a crappy situation, when you have all the assets in the world but can't get any greater value out of them by combining them.

What team would be stupid enough to trade Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram for, let's say, draft picks 5, 19 & 20 of the 2016 draft, number 5 in 2017 and number 5 and number 20 in 2018? That is considering the Nets stay about at their level now and don't improve. So, yes, we need to hit the lottery this year.

Edit - Dammit, that depresses me.
 

Drocca

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"when you have all the assets in the world but can't get any greater value out of them by combining them."

Then, by definition, you do not have "all the assets in the world." That mindset simply overvalues pick 19 & 20 and those in that range. Those picks are just not that valuable.
 

Eddie Jurak

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given the roster crunch, it could make sense to literally trade all 8 of our picks this year just to move the Brooklyn pick up one slot or to the #1 overall. Sadly, that might not be enough to get it done. But I guess, in principle Danny should be trying to target specific players he loves and package multiple picks to get them. Also, he should be looking at trading for future picks.
The problem is... No one really wants 8 draft picks in one year. Even 3 first round picks in a year can be a lot to add to any one team, depending on the team. I wonder how many of these picks will just end up being dealt for future picks to avoid losing assets completely.

Danny will have his work cut out for him.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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What say we have a good night tonight? Brooklyn hosts Toronto, Pels host Dallas after their ridiculous 2OT win last night, Denver/Minny is a win/win, Phoenix Shitshows with a pseudo-winnable game hosting Charlotte. Jazz might even have a slight chance @ SA with the Spurs resting Parker and Aldridge (probably not but I'm an optimist).
 

HomeRunBaker

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The problem is... No one really wants 8 draft picks in one year. Even 3 first round picks in a year can be a lot to add to any one team, depending on the team. I wonder how many of these picks will just end up being dealt for future picks to avoid losing assets completely.

Danny will have his work cut out for him.
The 2nd rounders aren't all that valuable it's always nice to take a flier or two in the mid-2nd or find a high character guy to fill out your 15 but as far as actual trade value there isn't a whole lot to them. I wouldn't say finding ways to utilize or get rid of these picks is anything Ainge is going to lose sleep over. He can use some on a real prospect, stash a player or two like he did with Thornton in Australia and hope nobody dumps beer on them too.

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/2592990-boston-draft-pick-marcus-thornton-gets-beer-poured-on-him-during-australian-game
 

benhogan

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Buddy Hield not listed on Chad Ford's top 20 list. Would gladly take a flier on him with the Celtics or Mavs first round pick
 

HomeRunBaker

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Has his limitations but could be a nice gunner off the bench.
There has been a recent trend of non-prototypical "high upside" players who excel at the college level being available late 1st or 2nd round. Draymond Green, Chandler Parsons, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, etc.

This year you have guys like Hield, Denzel Valentine, Caris LeVert, and Tim Quarterman who fit that profile.
 

BigSoxFan

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There has been a recent trend of non-prototypical "high upside" players who excel at the college level being available late 1st or 2nd round. Draymond Green, Chandler Parsons, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, etc.

This year you have guys like Hield, Denzel Valentine, Caris LeVert, and Tim Quarterman who fit that profile.
Yup. And we're in perfect position to grab one or two of them. Valentine is a guy I'd like to see in Green.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Some Nets blogger suggests that Nets may be interested in Evan Turner as a free agent.
If the Nets are really interested in Turner, DA should save them the trouble of negotiating a new contract and send ET to the Nets right now; having him logs minutes for the Nets for the rest of the year would be as much "value" as the Cs are going to get out of him.
 

ALiveH

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Buddy Hield is being projected mid-lottery in the latest mocks i've seen by the way, so he probably won't be available with any of our non-lottery picks. Seems like a real nice player if he develops well.
http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft
http://www.nbadraft.net/players/buddy-hield

Just reading through the scouting reports, seems like there's a drop off from #1 Simmons to #2-3 (Brown & Ingram) to #4-9 (Dunn, Rabb, Bender, Poeltl, Hield, Sabonis) to everyone else. Lots of time for things to change. Curious how you guys see it. It seems to me like below that, it is really tough to see other guys become good NBA players (though there are always a few surprises).