Celtics Draft Pick Watch 2016

wutang112878

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2007
6,066
Knock on wood, if the ping-pong balls fall our way and the draft is strong, its entirely possible this trade reaches Herschel Walker proportions.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
It will be nice to check out Tankathon on a regular basis without it also coinciding with the Celtics being miserably bad.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
Here are win projections based purely on current, in-season results (no prior biases about team quality):



This uses strength of schedule-adjusted margin of victory to project results across the rest of the schedule going forward. It is heavily regressed to the mean right now (over 50% for every team). Brooklyn projects to win substantially fewer games than anyone else by this measure.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
It will be nice to check out Tankathon on a regular basis without it also coinciding with the Celtics being miserably bad.
I had never seen that website. Very helpful in visualizing how the draft order will play out. The Celtics and Sixers are going to own the 2016 draft, particularly if Philly gets the Lakers' top 3 protected pick.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
I had never seen that website. Very helpful in visualizing how the draft order will play out. The Celtics and Sixers are going to own the 2016 draft, particularly if Philly gets the Lakers' top 3 protected pick.
That chart is nice we only have to figure out how to get the 76ers to win a game this year.

This draft is shaping up to be the perfect storm for us I only wish last years class was this summers. Yes I'm greedy.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
That chart is nice we only have to figure out how to get the 76ers to win a game this year.

This draft is shaping up to be the perfect storm for us I only wish last years class was this summers. Yes I'm greedy.
Patience, young HRB. There's no KATman next year, but there are going to be as many all stars overall.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Patience, young HRB. There's no KATman next year, but there are going to be as many all stars overall.
One thing I am with us is patient. Following the trade I began the mental preparation to not compete in the playoffs until 2018 or 2019. No I don't count backing into a 7-8 seed with 40 wins after everyone laid down for us competing in the playoffs. I mean legit this team can win a round or two. I have patience.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
Who should we be following outside of Simmons and Skal?

(Paging nighthob...)
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
Who should we be following outside of Simmons and Skal?

(Paging nighthob...)
Jamal Murray, I think he's a better version of D'Angelo Russell. Jaylen Brown worries me, he has a ten dollar body, but has a tendency to combine it with a ten cent head. He could be the 6'7" Tony Allen (which is still a pretty good playeer) or he could be a pretty good two way player. Brandon Ingram is going to Duke, he reminds me a little of Otto Porter. Cheick Diallo looks like he'll be a pretty good PF at the next level. I still love Kris Dunn. Diamond Stone is another guy to keep an eye on.

EDIT: I forgot Ivan Rabb. I like Diallo more, but Rabb should be a pretty solid two way PF.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
If you want to try and dig up some Maccabi Tel Aviv stream, Dragan Bender is probably going top 5. Sadly he wasn't at the U19s because he has been with Addidas since 2013, but Nike signed a deal with Croatia and they wouldn't let him play.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
Wolves are running the Hawks off their own floor. Didn't think this pick had any chance of triggering but they look pretty good so far.
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
If you want to try and dig up some Maccabi Tel Aviv stream, Dragan Bender is probably going top 5. Sadly he wasn't at the U19s because he has been with Addidas since 2013, but Nike signed a deal with Croatia and they wouldn't let him play.
Bender might be the skinniest NBA prospect I've ever seen. I know he'll add weight and all that but that looks like a kid who's light years away from being an NBA impact player.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Bender might be the skinniest NBA prospect I've ever seen. I know he'll add weight and all that but that looks like a kid who's light years away from being an NBA impact player.
He's only about 10 or so pounds lighter than Porzingis was and he's still 17, he apparently gained 15 pounds between 16 and 17 so he could be the same weight as Porzingis by the draft.
I mean he obviously needs work, but so do the college kids, and his ceiling is probably higher than either of the top 2 college guys. He's a legit 7' with a huge wingspan (9'3" just longer than Aldridge and KD) and had scouts and Marc Stein raving about his defense during the US tour. I don't see any way he isn't a top 5 pick, and I wouldn't be shocked if he went anywhere up to #1 with a good season and some weight gain.
 

LondonSox

Robert the Deuce
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,956
North Bay California
I had never seen that website. Very helpful in visualizing how the draft order will play out. The Celtics and Sixers are going to own the 2016 draft, particularly if Philly gets the Lakers' top 3 protected pick.
The insane thing about the Sixers is on top of that they get the draft pick swap right to the Kings, who also suck. Essentially adding lottery balls to their own pick. PLUS Embiid and Saric could be there next year (who are arguably - though I doubt controversial- top 5 talent type picks this year).
I mean they could add in theory 1/4/ 15/16 and Saric and Embiid - that is potentially a big a talent infusion as any team ever in a year.
Of course they could also end up 5/25/30 lakers pick rolls over and Embiid gets hurt and Saric stays overseas. So there's a .... RANGE

But yeah Sixers and Celtics are going to be running the draft.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,105
The insane thing about the Sixers is on top of that they get the draft pick swap right to the Kings, who also suck. Essentially adding lottery balls to their own pick. PLUS Embiid and Saric could be there next year (who are arguably - though I doubt controversial- top 5 talent type picks this year).
I mean they could add in theory 1/4/ 15/16 and Saric and Embiid - that is potentially a big a talent infusion as any team ever in a year.
Of course they could also end up 5/25/30 lakers pick rolls over and Embiid gets hurt and Saric stays overseas. So there's a .... RANGE

But yeah Sixers and Celtics are going to be running the draft.
Would Embiid really be a top 5 pick? Hasn't played in two years, major questions about his dedication (not to mention his durability), and with two years done on his rookie contract you're not going to have all that much time before you decide to commit major dollars to him long term. 20th pick, OK, but 5th?

Put another way, how would you feel if the Cs traded the Brooklyn pick for him?
 

BigSoxFan

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2007
47,094
I'd almost feel bad for Brett Brown if all that happens. How the hell do you develop that much raw talent? If DeMarcus Cousins becomes available, I bet Danny nabs him since Philly is all set in the frontcourt. If a top wing or guard like Paul George becomes available, Philly would have to be the front runner.
 

Hombre

New Member
Aug 5, 2006
139
You guys can still stomach the idea of another draft lottery? I'm hoping these picks are dealt before the lottery takes place.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
This Nets pick has been so blessed (I mean, they even signed Bargnani!), that it seems like they're sure to get the best player in the draft out of it. I welcome the lottery.

Also, Billy King says he won't do any more to destroy the team than he already has:

But Billy King said despite the rocky start, and despite the fact the team won’t benefit from a disastrous regular season like their rivals across the East River did last year, he won’t be making any short-sighted, panic moves. The Nets general manager said he won’t try to salvage a respectable finish at the expense of the team’s projected $40 million or so in cap space and the young players it does have.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
32,622
You guys can still stomach the idea of another draft lottery? I'm hoping these picks are dealt before the lottery takes place.

There almost no way it isn't a let down. But I'm going to try to go against my nature and just have fun with it
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
I get the point, but would you have traded Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett's 13/14 seasons for the 5th pick this year? I think the answer is yes even without anything else, nevermind another potential lottery pick in two years (and Chris Young!)

As well, like I mention above, the Celtics don't have to lose a bunch of games in the lead in to the draft. We can cheer for them to compete and not have constant fights over angling for more ping ping balls while watching them. (I hope) So there is still disappointment but unlike 1997 and 2007 it doesn't come on the heels of watching a tremendously bad team with the only thing to look forward to being the draft.
 
Last edited:

LondonSox

Robert the Deuce
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,956
North Bay California
Would Embiid really be a top 5 pick? Hasn't played in two years, major questions about his dedication (not to mention his durability), and with two years done on his rookie contract you're not going to have all that much time before you decide to commit major dollars to him long term. 20th pick, OK, but 5th?

Put another way, how would you feel if the Cs traded the Brooklyn pick for him?
Well i think we are a long way from knowing too much. KAT was just another lottery pick a year ago. So depends how it plays out. But assuming there are a couple of potential stars and everyone else has question marks yes I think so.

Embiid has not been perfect but read any draft expert on talent alone embiid is as good if not better than anyone. Obviously there is a huge risk to him. The medical review is huge.

But. Yes I think most teams would strongly consider him in the top 5. I think he probably is untradable as the sixers view him as potentially their super star stud but everyone else will be wary and the sixers moving him itself would be a red flag. They know him best after all.

Would I trade him for the Nets 16 ? Hmmm. Probably. Because it's likely to be extremely high and of course they have two centres already.
But say hypothetically if the sixers ended with Russell not okafor then no probably not.

It's hard to argue that embiid isn't a risk. But he's also the best upside. I think from what I've read the draft guys say on talent he would have been a rival for KAT last year at 1 and same this year. but we haven't seen the next year at all yet so shrug
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Well i think we are a long way from knowing too much. KAT was just another lottery pick a year ago. So depends how it plays out. But assuming there are a couple of potential stars and everyone else has question marks yes I think so.

Embiid has not been perfect but read any draft expert on talent alone embiid is as good if not better than anyone. Obviously there is a huge risk to him. The medical review is huge.

But. Yes I think most teams would strongly consider him in the top 5. I think he probably is untradable as the sixers view him as potentially their super star stud but everyone else will be wary and the sixers moving him itself would be a red flag. They know him best after all.

Would I trade him for the Nets 16 ? Hmmm. Probably. Because it's likely to be extremely high and of course they have two centres already.
But say hypothetically if the sixers ended with Russell not okafor then no probably not.

It's hard to argue that embiid isn't a risk. But he's also the best upside. I think from what I've read the draft guys say on talent he would have been a rival for KAT last year at 1 and same this year. but we haven't seen the next year at all yet so shrug
I think that's crazy. You're taking a guy who is MAYBE a top 5 talent, but has significant injury history, that alone makes it a questionable decision. Having him for two fewer years on the artificially low rookie scale makes it a terrible decision unless he was a can't miss stud.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
I think between the health and development risk with Embiid at this point, there's no way the Celtics would trade the Nets pick for him. They'd probably move the Dallas pick however.

I don't think he'd have gone in the top 10 of this year's draft, but it was an unusual draft in that respect.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
Sorry to be that guy, but a quick google didn't give me details I wanted.

What is the deal with the Mavs pick? I know it is top 7 protected, and barring lucky ping pong balls the Mavs aren't likely to be in the top 7 but I'm still curious what Celtics fans should be rooting for there. Like, would you rather have pick 8 in this year's draft or the chance for a better pick in 2017?
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
Sorry to be that guy, but a quick google didn't give me details I wanted.

What is the deal with the Mavs pick? I know it is top 7 protected, and barring lucky ping pong balls the Mavs aren't likely to be in the top 7 but I'm still curious what Celtics fans should be rooting for there. Like, would you rather have pick 8 in this year's draft or the chance for a better pick in 2017?
It's top 7 protected every year until 2021 so regardless of how future drafts are projected I think you root for them to get the pick as soon as possible, especially with Dallas looking like they could fall into that 8-12 sweet spot this season.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
8,105
Sorry to be that guy, but a quick google didn't give me details I wanted.

What is the deal with the Mavs pick? I know it is top 7 protected, and barring lucky ping pong balls the Mavs aren't likely to be in the top 7 but I'm still curious what Celtics fans should be rooting for there. Like, would you rather have pick 8 in this year's draft or the chance for a better pick in 2017?
Mavs pick is top 7 protected and keeps rolling over through 2020 always protected top 7, until unprotected in 2021. That's a good organization that can improve in a hurry, I think rooting for a pick in the 8-12 range this year while they're in a downturn is the right move.

http://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft/future_drafts/detailed
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,680
Sorry to be that guy, but a quick google didn't give me details I wanted.

What is the deal with the Mavs pick? I know it is top 7 protected, and barring lucky ping pong balls the Mavs aren't likely to be in the top 7 but I'm still curious what Celtics fans should be rooting for there. Like, would you rather have pick 8 in this year's draft or the chance for a better pick in 2017?
Boston gets the first non-top 7 pick out of Dallas. As every year added to that equation equals more talent for the Mavs you want the pick this year when it's later lottery pick. If you get Jae Crowder and Kris Dunn for Rondo you've hit the jackpot.
 

jmcc5400

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2000
5,219
And, maybe, that Minnesota midround pick, via Brandan Wright. Pretty nice haul for Rajon.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
51,333
Double whammy tonight as the Pelicans take down the Mavs for their first win, leaving the Nets and Sixers as the last winless teams. Brow did leave with a hip contusion though.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,452
Haiku
And, maybe, that Minnesota midround pick, via Brandan Wright. Pretty nice haul for Rajon.
Yes indeed, for the first time in a long time, the Timberwolves are looking like a team to be reckoned with. Wiggins, Towns and Rubio are a lot of complementary talent on the same floor at the same time. Minnesota may be a playoff team.
 

Fishy1

Head Mason
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
5,872
Yes indeed, for the first time in a long time, the Timberwolves are looking like a team to be reckoned with. Wiggins, Towns and Rubio are a lot of complementary talent on the same floor at the same time. Minnesota may be a playoff team.
Rubio's got plenty of shooters to pass to as well. Martin, Bjelica, Prince and Muhammad are all above-average at shooting the 3 ball.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
I wanted to start a thread rather than just have the Nets thread be the draft watch thread.

Things are looking pretty good for the Celtics in terms of the 2016 draft. Ignoring the super early nature of where we are in the season, the Celtics currently have 3 sets of ping pong balls (Nets, Mavericks, and their own) plus the 18th pick courtesy of Minnesota.

The Nets pick is unprotected
The Mavs pick is protected 1-7
The Wolves pick is protected 1-12

Ideally, the Celtics would therefore have the 1, 8, 13, and 30th picks (hey, I'm talking ideals here)

I find the Tankathon website really useful for keeping up with this.

My intention in creating this thread was to make it kind of like a game thread, so a bit of open form, complaining about games where the Nets look like they might win or Sixers snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, etc. As I already mentioned in the other thread, the nice thing is we hopefully don't have to use this space to bitch at each other about whether the Celtics themselves should be tanking when talking about their potential draft picks.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Great thread idea! One thing I haven't heard mentioned anywhere is how DeAndre Jordan's "defection" from the Mavs has potentially impacted the Celtics as his agreement with the Mavs blocked them from pursuing another top FA last summer.

Instead they filled in the blanks with some role players and are now in that sweet spot of not being good enough to make the WC playoffs while not being bad enough to out-tank the dreck of the league. It really was the perfect storm for us.
 

LondonSox

Robert the Deuce
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,956
North Bay California
I think that's crazy. You're taking a guy who is MAYBE a top 5 talent, but has significant injury history, that alone makes it a questionable decision. Having him for two fewer years on the artificially low rookie scale makes it a terrible decision unless he was a can't miss stud.
Well no his talent is CLEARLY top 5, and realistically top 2/3 (given we haven't seen the others play- today probably number 1)
The injury drops him to maybe top 5. And it depends on who else is there. If there is another slightly lower talent but no issues, clearly you'd rather have that.

As I say trading him is tricky because if the Sixers want to move on, that's a huge red flag. But if he was in the draft as a rookie, healthy he'd be 1 today. With the injury he was third in a arguably more highly touted draft (it's early of course). If in the draft he's got a clean bill of health why would you not expect him to be a top 3 pick? But I totally get the other side. Everyone I most like as judges of talent drools over him.

Let me ask this, hypothetically, he has 100% certain foot health what would you trade for him then?
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Well no his talent is CLEARLY top 5, and realistically top 2/3 (given we haven't seen the others play- today probably number 1)
The injury drops him to maybe top 5. And it depends on who else is there. If there is another slightly lower talent but no issues, clearly you'd rather have that.

As I say trading him is tricky because if the Sixers want to move on, that's a huge red flag. But if he was in the draft as a rookie, healthy he'd be 1 today. With the injury he was third in a arguably more highly touted draft (it's early of course). If in the draft he's got a clean bill of health why would you not expect him to be a top 3 pick? But I totally get the other side. Everyone I most like as judges of talent drools over him.

Let me ask this, hypothetically, he has 100% certain foot health what would you trade for him then?
Mid 1st. He's two years older than most prospects has less time under contract and has never played in the NBA. Of course that's still a hypo since his long injury history means you have to discount him even if the foot is healed. He played well for a year in college, but so have lots of busts, and losing 2 years of development is a big deal.
 

LondonSox

Robert the Deuce
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
8,956
North Bay California
Fair enough, it's an agree to disagree thing. Personally I think finding legitimate game changing superstars to build around is hard.
It's almost impossible in the middle of the first round.
Just thinking about what Philly paid for eg Bynum. It's about what your goal is. The Sixers much like the Celtics need a star. The celtics have a lot of solid players (unlike the Sixers) but lack that core piece. Adding another good player likely doesn't move the dial a whole lot. The Sixers are trying to find their star, they'd rather miss entirely for the chance of that star than accept 90% good with tiny chance of star or bust. Until now missing actually just meant you sucked so hard you got another shot.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
I don't think prospects can be categories quite so nicely into "potentially superstar" or not. We just saw one of the most dominant teams in recent history win the title, and none of their top 3 players were thought to have superstar upside when they were drafted. It's not clear to me that Embiid is more likely to turn into a star than just a mystery first round pick. He's a better bet than someone like James Young, but I'd probably rather have Nurkic, Capela, or Caboclo from last year's draft (to name some mid first-rounders).
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,464
Fair enough, it's an agree to disagree thing. Personally I think finding legitimate game changing superstars to build around is hard.
It's almost impossible in the middle of the first round.
Just thinking about what Philly paid for eg Bynum. It's about what your goal is. The Sixers much like the Celtics need a star. The celtics have a lot of solid players (unlike the Sixers) but lack that core piece. Adding another good player likely doesn't move the dial a whole lot. The Sixers are trying to find their star, they'd rather miss entirely for the chance of that star than accept 90% good with tiny chance of star or bust. Until now missing actually just meant you sucked so hard you got another shot.
I think that's why Philly who invested the pick won't trade him.

However you are making a huge leap. The odds were against Embiid being a game changing superstar before his injury, they're heavily against it now given both the loss of development and the long history of big men with serious foot injuries.

Bynum is a totally different beast. He had some of the same injury concerns, but he had also put up 5 years (mostly partials) of very good NBA production. Bynum was a very good to excellent NBA center if healthy, Embiid is a good prospect if healthy.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
22,673
I think you are shortchanging Embiid a bit. Before his injury, he was the consensus number one prospect in the entire draft, rated higher by most scouts than either Wiggins or Parker. Scouts were drooling over his rapid development and his footwork and his athleticism. If Embiid had never been injured it is likely he would probably be a top 30 or higher NBA player right now in his sophomore season.

The Magic improbably winning the Dwight Howard trade after all the pundits slammed them for not getting Bynum is outstanding.
 

bowiac

Caveat: I know nothing about what I speak
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,945
New York, NY
I think it would be pretty surprising if Embiid were a top 30 player right now. He was an excellent prospect, but he wasn't super high up the skills development curve yet.

I think the more important question though is what missing 2 years of development time does to a prospect. I don't think anyone really knows. I can't recall a prospect missing two full seasons and turning into a star, but then again, it's not like there's a bunch of negative comparable either. The closest recent example would be Oden, who definitely seems to have stagnated from a development point of view. Of course, he also missed nearly four years.

Embiid will be 22 when (if?) he first steps onto an NBA court. Even if the injury issues haven't cost him any athleticism or footwork, it's unclear where he's going to be from a talent point of view.