Carroll's Call

[dynomite]

Not sure if anyone else has seen the Inside the NFL episode yet -- it is AMAZING -- but Ed Reed just CRUSHED it.

On the TD Logan Ryan allowed to Matthews to end the 1st half: "He needed to take a pass interference there. We talk about that all the time, take the pass interference don't let them in the end zone, especially with those 6 seconds left, you take the penalty, put it at the 1 yard line. Are they going to run the ball? We know they're not." (Simms makes a great as well that Logan Ryan never looked at Russell Wilson on the play, so he had no idea the ball was coming out. Very poor situational awareness by Ryan.)

On Belichick's decision not to call timeout after the Lynch run with 1:00 left, after Boomer says he will never understand it: "I think he had confidence in his players and the defense he had called. New England knew exactly what to do in that situation... They did their research and knew that play was coming."

 

[Al Zarilla]

Not sure if anyone else has seen the Inside the NFL episode yet -- it is AMAZING -- but Ed Reed just CRUSHED it.

."

So, no deflategate? I had to turn it off last week because of it. Boomer, in particular, was beyond shithead. Simms was more "aw shucks, who cares." I'll watch it tonight, recorded, so I can FF it if I have to while giving Esiason the finger. Sound FX with Brady mic'd is on NFLN tonight also.

 

[leftfieldlegacy]

Not sure if anyone else has seen the Inside the NFL episode yet -- it is AMAZING -- but Ed Reed just CRUSHED it.

On the TD Logan Ryan allowed to Matthews to end the 1st half: "He needed to take a pass interference there. We talk about that all the time, take the pass interference don't let them in the end zone, especially with those 6 seconds left, you take the penalty, put it at the 1 yard line. Are they going to run the ball? We know they're not." (Simms makes a great as well that Logan Ryan never looked at Russell Wilson on the play, so he had no idea the ball was coming out. Very poor situational awareness by Ryan.)

On Belichick's decision not to call timeout after the Lynch run with 1:00 left, after Boomer says he will never understand it: "I think he had confidence in his players and the defense he had called. New England knew exactly what to do in that situation... They did their research and knew that play was coming."

It was a good show.
I'm surprised no one carried over Ed Reed's philosophy of intentional PI to the other great play that Butler made which was the intentional PI on Lockette on the play over the middle where Butler tripped and fell down but immediately reached out to trip Lockette. Boomer kept insisting that the "missed call" could have resulted in a big play because Lockette had no one hear him. But by tripping the receiver the worst that could happen would be a PI or even better an illegal contact. Better still was the no call that IIRC forced a punt. Butler seems to have an extremely high football IQ. This play plus the INT each required a split second reaction which he handled like an old pro. 

 

[nattysez]

Watching the Inside the NFL show, when the Seahawks had the ball with 6 seconds left at the end of the first half, he pulled Wilson aside and they discussed whether to try to go for the TD or not.  After they scored, Carroll went on a mini-rant about how if you trust your players, they'll get the job done, saying "You just gotta believe they'll do it right.  They could screw it up...of course they could...but he didn't."  
 
I expect that he was thinking the same thing -- and remembering that end-of-half success -- when they went for the pass at the end of the game.  

 

[wibi]

Yeah, this play is on Wilson, if he pulls that ball in he can walk into the endzone and probably has time to hit the Taco Bell drive-thru for some nachos while doing. He needs to realise that Browner blew up the pick and that the right side of the field is open for him to bootleg. And, honestly? He's their best offensive player, so putting it on him to make the play is the right call, he just had a brain fart.

 
If Butler isnt so far off the pick I dont think Wilson makes that throw and then reverts to scramble mode.  Kearse didnt blow up Browner but because Butler was far enough back it fooled Wilson into believing he could fit the ball in to that passing gap.
 
I believe Wilson made the right call with the look he had but BB had Butler coached correctly to make the play.

 

[jsinger121]

 
If Butler isnt so far off the pick I dont think Wilson makes that throw and then reverts to scramble mode.  Kearse didnt blow up Browner but because Butler was far enough back it fooled Wilson into believing he could fit the ball in to that passing gap.
 
I believe Wilson made the right call with the look he had but BB had Butler coached correctly to make the play.

 
Agree on that. The key was Browner holding up Kearse at the point of attack freeing Butler to make that play from where he was. Butler baited Wilson into that throw from where he was because he knew he had Browner to make that block. 

 

[JimD]

I'm blown away that Carroll has admitted that they were willing to 'waste a play' at this moment.  As NortheasternPJ said, he put clock management ahead of taking the lead.  There was a high probability of scoring but it was not guaranteed.  I wonder if he's convinced himself of this course of action because he doesn't want to admit that he relied on Belichick calling a timeout there and was caught unprepared when he didn't.

 

[MalzoneExpress]

I'm blown away that Carroll has admitted that they were willing to 'waste a play' at this moment.  As NortheasternPJ said, he put clock management ahead of taking the lead.  There was a high probability of scoring but it was not guaranteed.  I wonder if he's convinced himself of this course of action because he doesn't want to admit that he relied on Belichick calling a timeout there and was caught unprepared when he didn't.

 
Maybe this has been stated before, but here's how I see it.
 
On 2nd and goal from inside the 1, Carroll sends out 11 personnel (3 wide, 1 TE, 1RB). He expects BB will counter with personnel appropriate for defending 11 personnel, and plans on spreading things out and having Lynch run against a light front. Instead BB/Patricia send out Goal Line with 3 corners personnel. This puts 8 men in the box and outnumbers the Seahawks if a running play is called, but it also gives the Seahawks an advantage if a passing play is called because it is single man coverage across the board. Once these personnel decisions were made the dye was cast. Rather than run in an unfavorable situation or burn their last timeout, Carroll calls for a pass play. There is a question whether the specific pass play was the correct one, but calling a pass play was the correct call in those circumstances. He wasn't trying to waste a play. He was trying to score and leave as little time on the clock as possible for Brady. He figured that the worst case scenario would be an incomplete pass, which would equate to a waste of a play. If that happened, he would go to his jumbo personnel and run Lynch on 3rd down. If that failed, he would take a time out and decide on a 4th down play. So, it was not so much BB's clock management decision that caused the 2nd down pass, but the Goal Line with 3 corners personnel against 11 personnel that took away the run option on 2nd down. BB did not want the Seahawks #1 option, Beast Mode, to beat him. That is BB 101. At least that is how I see it.

 

[Reverend]

This play is also a great example of someone getting too cute, trying to milk clock and not making taking the lead the number one priority.

You have the best D in the league. Score, go up and then take your chances. Instead they got cute, got caught off guard and lost right there.

 
Shades of Belichick letting Baltimore have the ball with time three weeks before. I know a lot of people expressed much consternation about that at the time, but my response to many people at the time was that Belichick had been very clear about putting it on his players and their strengths to win games in the past--giving up points for field position and relying on the D, much?
 
It's instructive that the greatest head coach in football history understands that the game is won and lost on the field by players.

 

[Reverend]

Of course, the fact that his players were prepared and prepped for precisely the play that effectively ended the game is pretty fucking dope.

 

[snowmanny]

So my perusal of the Seahawks boxscores shows they scored only 11 touchdowns from the three-yard line or closer all year.  Four three-yard runs by Lynch, a two-yard run by Lynch, a one-yard run by Lynch, two one yard Wilson runs, and three touchdown passes from the three.  The passes were a fade to TE Tony Moeaki, a pass to RB Robert Fulton out near the sideline, and the referee pick play to Baldwin.  Basically no defender was within several yards of any of the receivers on any of those other touchdown passes.
 
Unless I'm missing something, they tried to win the Super Bowl with a play they hadn't run from the goal-line all year. They did run the play successfully last year for a TD. It was on the opposite side to Golden Tate. You can see how the pick is supposed to work on this video (sorry...NFL video; 15 second commercial)
 
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000271618/Tate-2-yard-touchdown
 
Edit: And even on that play, with some pick disruption of the defender in Butler's spot, the defender nevertheless almost stops Tate from getting across the goal-line and almost knocks the ball loose.
 
Edit: Although it was from the two, not the one.  And I'm not convinced he was in.

 

[nighthob]

If Butler isnt so far off the pick I dont think Wilson makes that throw and then reverts to scramble mode.  Kearse didnt blow up Browner but because Butler was far enough back it fooled Wilson into believing he could fit the ball in to that passing gap.

There was no pick. Browner jammed up Kearse, who couldn't finish the route. Butler easily moved around it and was in position to jump the route. The Killer Bs were ready for the play, knew it was coming well before the fact. If you look at the sideline footage you can see Butler running up to Browner right before the play to have a last second talk and it appears that they're both well of aware what's coming.

 

[njnesportsfan]

 
Maybe this has been stated before, but here's how I see it.
 
On 2nd and goal from inside the 1, Carroll sends out 11 personnel (3 wide, 1 TE, 1RB). He expects BB will counter with personnel appropriate for defending 11 personnel, and plans on spreading things out and having Lynch run against a light front. Instead BB/Patricia send out Goal Line with 3 corners personnel. This puts 8 men in the box and outnumbers the Seahawks if a running play is called, but it also gives the Seahawks an advantage if a passing play is called because it is single man coverage across the board. Once these personnel decisions were made the dye was cast. Rather than run in an unfavorable situation or burn their last timeout, Carroll calls for a pass play. There is a question whether the specific pass play was the correct one, but calling a pass play was the correct call in those circumstances. He wasn't trying to waste a play. He was trying to score and leave as little time on the clock as possible for Brady. He figured that the worst case scenario would be an incomplete pass, which would equate to a waste of a play. If that happened, he would go to his jumbo personnel and run Lynch on 3rd down. If that failed, he would take a time out and decide on a 4th down play. So, it was not so much BB's clock management decision that caused the 2nd down pass, but the Goal Line with 3 corners personnel against 11 personnel that took away the run option on 2nd down. BB did not want the Seahawks #1 option, Beast Mode, to beat him. That is BB 101. At least that is how I see it.

Basically, BB took away Seattle's strength (Lynch) and forced Wilson to beat NEP, and he failed. Isn't that what BB always does on defense? Take away opponent's strength. 

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

It doesn't look like Lockette does very much to sell that route. If he can get Butler to take a step back or even just pit a little weight on his left foot, the play seems like it should work. The link above where Tate runs the play, he takes longer before his break to try to freeze the defender. If Butler has to worry about a route to the outside or a fade, it mabye gives them a quarter of a second before Butler's break, which is all they need. Lockette looks anxious. He goes into his break almost immediately. Once you see Browner is all the way up on the line of scrimmage, Lockette I think needs to run a much better route and maybe even take a half step more right or forward before the slant, to try to get Kearse to maybe get a push on Browner and to freeze Butler.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

So my perusal of the Seahawks boxscores shows they scored only 11 touchdowns from the three-yard line or closer all year.  Four three-yard runs by Lynch, a two-yard run by Lynch, a one-yard run by Lynch, two one yard Wilson runs, and three touchdown passes from the three.  The passes were a fade to TE Tony Moeaki, a pass to RB Robert Fulton out near the sideline, and the referee pick play to Baldwin.  Basically no defender was within several yards of any of the receivers on any of those other touchdown passes.
 
Unless I'm missing something, they tried to win the Super Bowl with a play they hadn't run from the goal-line all year. They did run the play successfully last year for a TD. It was on the opposite side to Golden Tate. You can see how the pick is supposed to work on this video (sorry...NFL video; 15 second commercial)
 
http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap2000000271618/Tate-2-yard-touchdown
 
Edit: And even on that play, with some pick disruption of the defender in Butler's spot, the defender nevertheless almost stops Tate from getting across the goal-line and almost knocks the ball loose.
 
Edit: Although it was from the two, not the one.  And I'm not convinced he was in.

 
This is quality analysis and research, thanks. I remain absolutely fascinated by this play. 
 
Slightly different play, the receivers are not stacked like they were in the Superbowl. With the benefit of hindsight, they might have benefitted if they had been spread, rather than stacked, because Butler would have had to take on one of the two Seattle receivers that are bigger than him, rather than just run (ok, explode) to a spot. 
 
And, Seattle really fucked up choosing Percy Harvin over Golden Tate. 

 

[Tony C]

Basically, BB took away Seattle's strength (Lynch) and forced Wilson to beat NEP, and he failed. Isn't that what BB always does on defense? Take away opponent's strength. 

 
That's about as concisely stated as is possible, and spot on.
 
I watched the SoundFX thing and was surprised by Wilson. He didn't seem to know what had happened. Carroll and BB share a basic philosophy of faith in your players to do the right thing, but that drive and certainly that play showed Wilson still seeming quite green and perhaps not as worth the trust as I would have thought. Not that he could have predicted that Butler would hit the play quite that hard, but if he even suspected there was a 2% chance he needs to throw it away.

 

[Klostrophobic]

Kick on third down to force OT? We were up by four...

Yep. Field goal plus the point after try. Duh.

 

[JimD]

Of course, the fact that his players were prepared and prepped for precisely the play that effectively ended the game is pretty fucking dope.

 
+1000.  This is not getting nearly enough love in the media.  I'm also in awe of the coolness of BB and his staff in putting the game's fate completely in the hands of his defense and not trying to save time for Brady to attempt a miracle.  Many mediots are going with the narrative of 'Carroll's play call was bad, but it wasn't the worst play of the Super Bowl - Belichick failed to use a timeout!!!'. 

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
+1000.  This is not getting nearly enough love in the media.  I'm also in awe of the coolness of BB and his staff in putting the game's fate completely in the hands of his defense and not trying to save time for Brady to attempt a miracle.  Many mediots are going with the narrative of 'Carroll's play call was bad, but it wasn't the worst play of the Super Bowl - Belichick failed to use a timeout!!!'. 

FWIW, Wilfork in an interview said there was never a doubt in his mind that "we would lose that game". Of course, he's a lifer Patriot and you gotta believe in your unit, your team. Carroll just outsmarted himself, got too cute, didn't go with what got them there, add your other sports cliches here. And if they believe in Carroll's explanation that the pass maybe buys them the fourth down, if necessary, why don't the media idiots talk more about clock management on that last drive. 2 minutes and 3 timeouts and you're at midfield? That's a walk in the park for a lot of QBs, especially a Brady or a Manning. I'd say Rodgers too except their coaching staff. 

 

[Harry Hooper]

why don't the media idiots talk more about clock management on that last drive. 2 minutes and 3 timeouts and you're at midfield? That's a walk in the park for a lot of QBs, especially a Brady or a Manning. I'd say Rodgers too except their coaching staff. 

 
This is why the audio of Carroll and Wilson after the 1st timeout is so amazing. Pete says to him something like, "We're at midfield with 2 timeouts. This is an easy one for you to finish for a TD."

 

[Silverdude2167]

Maybe I am just spoiled by years of Brady, but the clips of Wilson surprised me. I could never see Brady having to tell his OC to trust him near the goal-line, or asking BB what happened on an interception where it is clearly man coverage that beat you. (This is all unfair since Wilson is in his 3rd year, I always forget that the way the media talks about him)

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
This is why the audio of Carroll and Wilson after the 1st timeout is so amazing. Pete says to him something like, "We're at midfield with 2 timeouts. This is an easy one for you to finish for a TD."

They actually had all 3 at midfield after the wheel route to Lynch, didn't they?

 

[jmcc5400]

Carroll's not telling Wilson that it's "easy" at the 2 minute warning, or at least that's not my read.  He's saying that it's "easy" compared to the two minute drills they run in practice, which presumably are much more difficult situations - for example "1:20 left, own 20, 1 timeout - go."  They would never run a 2 minute drill from the 50 with three timeouts and 2 minutes left, because that's not really a classic "hurry up" situation.  I think what Carroll says is something like "we would never give you one this easy."
 
Of course, then they burned 2 bad timeouts, so maybe they should have practiced it. 

 

[Tony C]

Maybe I am just spoiled by years of Brady, but the clips of Wilson surprised me. I could never see Brady having to tell his OC to trust him near the goal-line, or asking BB what happened on an interception where it is clearly man coverage that beat you. (This is all unfair since Wilson is in his 3rd year, I always forget that the way the media talks about him)

 
Yeah, I watch a lot of Seattle, tho obviously not nearly as much as NE. But still remained shocked by Wilson who I thought/and still think is terrific. Was disappointed (in a happy way) both in terms of the play itself -- he never should have thrown that ball, has to be a throwaway if there's any doubt, and if he did throw it he needs to have had it lower/on inside shoulder -- but just how clueless he seems throughout. And the way he passive aggressively took blame -- but didn't really - -during the post-game was just...just kind of weird. Really spoke to a young QB, which is obviously not that surprising, but he's always come off as more mature than his years. But I guess not so much. I mean, he really fucked up: blew TOs, was slow getting his team to the LOS, and obviously made a throw he shouldn't have made.
 
On the flip, he sure as hell did throw some beautiful long balls during that game.

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

One of the things I've noticed in the days after the game is that--much like "Deflate-gate"'s oft repeated mantra of 2psi per ball--Pete Carroll "blew it" has become ingrained as truth despite some evidence to the contrary.
 
How does this phenomenon, of having things repeated over and over and becoming ground truth, happen?  
 
Another example would be that Yoko "broke up" the Beatles. This, despite every remaining band member denying it for decades.  Is it laziness on the part of the public?

Just another version of the Gell-Mann amnesia effect. When you read a story in the newspaper on a topic which you know a lot about, you are shocked to see how poorly the journalist understands the topic. Then you turn to the next section and completely forget how little faith you should have.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Wilson is confused because he doesn't realize how ineffective the pick was. He asks Bevell if Butler stepped around the pick. This makes sense because Wilson really doesn't have a post snap read on that play, it is just a "find the receiver and put the ball on target " play where he does not have time to make a read. He missed the throw by about two feet, which made a Super Bowl title's worth of difference, but I don't think it is fair to ask him to identify Butler or the poor pick prior to making the throw. That is one of the problems with the play call, that play call essentially takes the option of Wilson "wasting the play" to use Carroll's term, away from the quarterback.  The immediate throw took away the possibility of a sack, which would have been a disaster, and it likey had a higher % of success probability than a roll out by Wilson, but it also carried more risk and denied Wilson the chance to throw it away. Bevell fucked up. 

 

[Harry Hooper]

Carroll's not telling Wilson that it's "easy" at the 2 minute warning, or at least that's not my read.  He's saying that it's "easy" compared to the two minute drills they run in practice, which presumably are much more difficult situations - for example "1:20 left, own 20, 1 timeout - go."  They would never run a 2 minute drill from the 50 with three timeouts and 2 minutes left, because that's not really a classic "hurry up" situation.  I think what Carroll says is something like "we would never give you one this easy."
 
Of course, then they burned 2 bad timeouts, so maybe they should have practiced it. 

 
 
Yes, easy in comparison to what they've practiced and done in games before.

 

[Steve Dillard]

On the Ed Reed thing, I don't even think you need to get a pass interference.  You tell the DBs to grab the receivers right away.  That takes it from 6 seconds down to 3, moves the ball from the 12 to the 7 but leaves Seattle with no choice but to kick the field goal.
 
I am also surprised they kicked off into the endzone with 2:02 left. 

 

[DJnVa]

I think Carroll was also confused as to what happened. Didn't he say someone "undercut" the route? Maybe that's just a different usage than I would use, but Butler didn't undercut Lockette, he beat him to the spot.

 

[Reverend]

Wilson is confused because he doesn't realize how ineffective the pick was. He asks Bevell if Butler stepped around the pick. This makes sense because Wilson really doesn't have a post snap read on that play, it is just a "find the receiver and put the ball on target " play where he does not have time to make a read. He missed the throw by about two feet, which made a Super Bowl title's worth of difference, but I don't think it is fair to ask him to identify Butler or the poor pick prior to making the throw. That is one of the problems with the play call, that play call essentially takes the option of Wilson "wasting the play" to use Carroll's term, away from the quarterback.  The immediate throw took away the possibility of a sack, which would have been a disaster, and it likey had a higher % of success probability than a roll out by Wilson, but it also carried more risk and denied Wilson the chance to throw it away. Bevell fucked up. 

 
Yep. He might have wanted to burn a play and some clock, but they chose a play that also looked to score quickly. Basically, they got caught in logger-jams of different goals and it burned them.
 
As per what Joe Dokes said before, the really tremendous thing about all this is that Belichick and company actually prepared for this and identified it in real time. It's being presented as though 99.99% of people watching knew it would be a run play. The 0.01% of people who knew not only it would be a pass play but precisely which pass play happened to be on the opposing sideline.
 
That is some serious greatness, and it's actually a bit sad--and I mean that, not in a nasty way but a sincere way (I used to live with a tortured Jets fan who had an honest appreciation of the game and, for that reason, loved Belichick--that many real football fans are being deprived of the opportunity to really look at how amazing that is.
 
It's all well and good to say that the Patriots got lucky that the Seahawks passed... but that ignores the question of how they were so prepared for just that. Therein lies genius.

 

[snowmanny]

Rev is right. Someone could basically write a book, or at least a chapter, about this play. It encapsulates so much of what is interesting about football beyond the level at which most of us
watch the games.

 

[Kevin Youkulele]

Rev is right. Someone could basically write a book, or at least a chapter, about this play. It encapsulates so much of what is interesting about football beyond the level at which most of us
watch the games.

It should be given the "Game 6" treatment (which is a great read, by the way).  The whole game had a lot of stuff going on.
 
http://smile.amazon.com/Game-Six-Cincinnati-Triumph-Americas-ebook/dp/B002OMZTSA/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1423254298&sr=1-1&keywords=game+6

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

I'm convinced that the interception was almost entirely due to preparation and recognition. How does one explain the TD at the end of the first half then, where the Patriots seemed woefully out coached?

 

[Harry Hooper]

I'm convinced that the interception was almost entirely due to preparation and recognition. How does one explain the TD at the end of the first half then, where the Patriots seemed woefully out coached?

 
Maybe Ryan convinced himself Matthews was going to run a fade route to the corner, or maybe he was just overwhelmed by the enormity of the moment and froze?

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
Maybe Ryan convinced himself Matthews was going to run a fade route to the corner, or maybe he was just overwhelmed by the enormity of the moment and froze?

Right but how does that square with how well prepared Butler obviously was? Is there any question that holding at the line of scrimmage is the correct play?

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I'm convinced that the interception was almost entirely due to preparation and recognition. How does one explain the TD at the end of the first half then, where the Patriots seemed woefully out coached?

It was also due to execution. And talent. Dez Bryant or Gronk might have prevented a pick. Both teams know how to prepare or they wouldn't be in the Super Bowl. If Wilson had a practice player jump that route, maybe he holds the ball a bit longer or pump fakes, and Butler blows Lockette away for a penalty. Or if Lockette runs a fade, it's a different story. Preparation just puts you in position to make a good play some of the time and to neutralize the other team's attempt to deceive you. It doesn't make you stronger or faster or more talented. You can know the play and still get pushed by a stronger man. Or you can diagnose the play perfectly and still get beat, or outjumped or ourun. With two closely matched teams, you just have to hope preparation helps you make one more play than the other guys.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

Right but how does that square with how well prepared Butler obviously was? Is there any question that holding at the line of scrimmage is the correct play?

Not automatically, I don't think. Unless you're prepared to have the entire team tackle every receiver to concede the three. You have three possible putcomes there. TD, FG attempt, or a play that does not result in a TD but takes six seconds. (Turnover and TD is also possible but highly unlikely, though the Patriots have had one of those called back on an obvious goal line hold in a Super Bowl.

I think the right decision there is tackle the receiver but only if you're beat. I hope that's how they were prepared, but why it didn't take is hard to say.

 

[BoneForYourJar]

This fourth quarter was the Sistine Chapel of football, as far as I'm concerned.

Bill and Tom's masterpiece.

 

[Super Nomario]

Right but how does that square with how well prepared Butler obviously was? Is there any question that holding at the line of scrimmage is the correct play?

I think the stack formation tipped off the pick / slant combination, because Seattle doesn't have a diverse set of combination routes, especially from that look. On the play at the end of the half, Ryan had to worry about the fade and was late to react to the back shoulder throw.

 

[mulluysavage]

I'm convinced that the interception was almost entirely due to preparation and recognition. How does one explain the TD at the end of the first half then, where the Patriots seemed woefully out coached?

I explain it as Ryan vs. Butler. i think BB has shown he prefers vets in over younger players in key situations. Ryan is not Revis, but has more experience than Butler. However, Ryan was getting burned, so BB made adjustments. Turns out putting Butler in was an awesome move, because he turned in a great Q4 performance overall, with a pass defensed, smartly taking the (non-called) penalty, a good play on the miracle Kearse catch, and... The INT. Kid killed it.

 

[snowmanny]

I don't remember the 49ers getting nearly this amount of crap for their playcalling at the end of SB47, which I thought was less defensible.  While they weren't on the 1, they were pretty close and threw three questionable passes  instead of having Kaepernick run at least once.
 
http://www.nfl.com/videos/baltimore-ravens/0ap2000000205652/Niners-final-drive-of-Super-Bowl-XLVII

 

[Eddie Jurak]

It was also due to execution. And talent. Dez Bryant or Gronk might have prevented a pick. Both teams know how to prepare or they wouldn't be in the Super Bowl. If Wilson had a practice player jump that route, maybe he holds the ball a bit longer or pump fakes, and Butler blows Lockette away for a penalty. Or if Lockette runs a fade, it's a different story. Preparation just puts you in position to make a good play some of the time and to neutralize the other team's attempt to deceive you. It doesn't make you stronger or faster or more talented. You can know the play and still get pushed by a stronger man. Or you can diagnose the play perfectly and still get beat, or outjumped or ourun. With two closely matched teams, you just have to hope preparation helps you make one more play than the other guys.

This is exactly right. All of the preparation and expectation doesn't amount to anything if Butler's execution is anything less than absolutely perfect. There are lots of plays in football where a team knows exactly what is coming and can't do anything about it.

Give Butler 10 more shots at that play, and some would go for incompletions/touchdowns.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

I don't remember the 49ers getting nearly this amount of crap for their playcalling at the end of SB47, which I thought was less defensible.  While they weren't on the 1, they were pretty close and threw three questionable passes  instead of having Kaepernick run at least once.
 
http://www.nfl.com/videos/baltimore-ravens/0ap2000000205652/Niners-final-drive-of-Super-Bowl-XLVII

Or Gore.

 

[crystalline]

On the play at the end of the half, Ryan had to worry about the fade and was late to react to the back shoulder throw.

Yes. After the game I thought someone (Wilson?) said that was an option play- if the CB is playing off, Wilson throws to the back shoulder, if the CB is in press coverage, they run a fade.
Still Ryan was too far off, I thought.

Clip is here
http://i.imgur.com/qLSzZzC.gif

 

[speedracer]

Yes. After the game I thought someone (Wilson?) said that was an option play- if the CB is playing off, Wilson throws to the back shoulder, if the CB is in press coverage, they run a fade.
Still Ryan was too far off, I thought.

Clip is here
http://i.imgur.com/qLSzZzC.gif

 
Positioning himself off the receiver presnap I think is okay -- if Ryan just holds the goal line (like he might do on a third down play at the sticks) instead of backpedaling two yards deep into the end zone, he can make a play on the ball or at worst knock Matthews out at the 1.

 

[dynomite]

With 6 seconds left. Ryan had 1 option: to make sure that he got his hands on the WR to disrupt a throw, even if it drew a flag. The result would have been a FG or a do-or-die try for a TD.

This exactly.

Get up on the line and eat his lunch. Don't worry about protecting the fade -- if he tries to run past on a fade literally tackle him, grab his facemask, go Henry Hill on him and then tell him to get his shine box.

Worst case scenario the Pats get an INT on that play and it's erased by the penalty. But who ever gets a turnover on a pass from basically the goal line, anyway?

 

[Super Nomario]

This exactly.

Get up on the line and eat his lunch. Don't worry about protecting the fade -- if he tries to run past on a fade literally tackle him, grab his facemask, go Henry Hill on him and then tell him to get his shine box.

Worst case scenario the Pats get an INT on that play and it's erased by the penalty. But who ever gets a turnover on a pass from basically the goal line, anyway?

Your issue is with the playcall more than Ryan, then - since there were 5 DBs lined up on the goal line, Ryan's positioning was no accident. Which doesn't mean he played it well, of course.

 

[CSteinhardt]

Right but how does that square with how well prepared Butler obviously was? Is there any question that holding at the line of scrimmage is the correct play?

 
Yes.  If you do it blatantly enough, the referee will award a touchdown for a palpably unfair act.

 

[dynomite]

Yes.  If you do it blatantly enough, the referee will award a touchdown for a palpably unfair act.

Interesting rule to cite... but this has never been called in an NFL game (right?) and this situation would not have merited it. That rule covers outrageous behavior (e.g. players coming off the sidelines to make a tackle... which would be incredible). It's the penalty that should have been assessed when Mike Tomlin tripped a punt returner who was going for a sure TD.

There's a 0% chance they award a TD on simple pass interference.

 

[mpx42]

 
Yes.  If you do it blatantly enough, the referee will award a touchdown for a palpably unfair act.

 
This would never, ever happen.
 
Two years ago, for example, John Harbaugh had about 14 seconds left in the Super Bowl and a 5 point lead, and he wanted to take a safety, but instead of just snapping it out of the back of the end zone, he instructed his players to just grab hold of all the 49ers jerseys and hold them, tackle them, do whatever in order to waste as much time off the clock as possible. That's because the worst case scenario there was...a safety, which was what they were going for anyway. It let the punter run around for 10 seconds in the end zone before stepping out, and made the return on the free kick the final play of the game.