I’m curious to know thoughts on, at any given time, how many human beings would actually be an excellent (not wanted or hire-able, but actually really good) NFL head coach - and how close that number is to 32*. It seems to me that the problem of racism (which is a huge problem) is exacerbated by a huge amount of inefficiency in matching coaches to openings - but I’m not sure about that.
For one, coaching candidates are hugely “trendy”, for lack of a better word. Recency bias plays a huge role. Luck plays a huge role. A Super Bowl-winning coordinator may have just scraped by in an earlier divisional playoff game because of an oppponent’s mistake. But after winning a title, they’re the next big thing for a time - even if maybe they’re not one of the most qualified people in the sport to fill such a role. Availability (or lack thereof) plays a huge role. Not every potentially great coach wants to be a coach at the exact moment an opportunity exists. And openings may not be available when a coordinator is perfectly timed to make a jump - “decent” head coaches don’t usually get fired and replaced by potentially better ones. It takes a bad season to do that. Family considerations play a role. Coaching trees play a role. Where a team is in a rebuild cycle plays a role. And on and on. These are all reasons that less-than-ideal candidates end up in head coaching roles, or why the best 32 candidates at any given moment are not necessarily the 32 actual NFL coaches.
Filling head coaching positions is a hugely efficient system. There is no invisible hand guiding the actual (not perceived) best candidates to the right positions. What would really help is if every coach and potential coach was a free agent every year. Obviously that’s nonsense - but it would probably allow talent to find its level more easily. This is not unlike what’s emerging in the NCAA with the transfer portal. A college player in an imperfect spot can suddenly be matched with a better situation, and potentially thrive. Every player is essentially on a one-season deal. Hell, it’s like Tinder - there was an inefficient traditional way to find suitable romantic partners, and now there’s something that adds a ton of market efficiency.
Without that, we have a hugely inefficient market that greatly amplifies the systemic racism that also exists. There’s a ton to battle through just to get to the part where we’re addressing racism on its face- and I’m having trouble pulling it all apart. Can the system actually be fixed without completely re-structuring it? Maybe this is what modifier “institutional” means?
*are there 32 qualified human beings on earth - of any combination of ethnicities - that would make excellent NFL head coaches right now?