Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread
- Thread starter HomeRunBaker
- Start date
The Grizz are 12-2 this season without Ja although a quick scan tells me it is mostly against non-playoff teams and the Philly and Dallas wins were without Embiid/Luka.
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Yeah I am taking a pass. On one hand, I don’t want to be fading Durant/Kyrie when they are fresh and motivated……but on the other, Memphis missing their top player is usually an auto play for many of the reason I’ve discussed on this board for years. Look at the other night with the Sixers without Embiid/Harden. So hard pass for me.
When HRB posted Lakers +7.5 I almost posted "That line seems 4 points high, sup with that?" Then I almost bet it anyway. Glad I didn't do the 2nd thing I guess.
Ewing Theory Rules! I’m even more confident and bought more at +10. Probably going to regret not having some Grizzlies too.
Apparently LeBron doesn't like playing against the 76ers. Lakers 6-12 without LeBron this season.
Last time they got blown out without LeBron was 6 missed games ago against the 76ers, 105-87 on 1/27.
Took a small swipe at Hornets in-game ML @ +460 bc well…..nobody blows 2H leads like the Knicks.
Same here, love the +10.
After reading your regret about the Grizz I had a similar thought and went and live bet them at -2.5.
Shaping up to be a great night.
Yeah... he's the only thing that stood between me & hammering 76ers -9.5 lol
…whoops. Never go out HRB. Never. Thankfully I knew KD and Kyrie would have big games so still made out ok.
Easy peasy. I really should have thrown the Winning Margin bet here too. This game had blowout written all over it.
In case I forget I’m really interested in seeing the Pacers/Grizz number when it comes out. Grizz with the big win tonight in a game they were up for……after this Pacers “walkthrough” they have the Bucks and Warriors up next. Indiana coming off a loss tonight. You don’t find better spots in this league than the Pacers getting around 12-13 here.
Yup I have the same +12.5 across mine but two had -105 which I take as a “shopping gift” and often buy the half for -115 so I got +13 as my “reward.” This is one thing I haven’t tracked but it was worked enough to where I really should.
NCAA Sweet Sixteen is going to be real simple for me pregame. I have a clear cut choice and play I’ve made in each game.
Under 135 Michigan/Villanova
Under 145.5 Arizona/Houston
Texas Tech -1
Gonzaga -9
Under 155 Gonzaga/Arkansas
(If you like Team Totals, Arkansas’ Under 72.5 seems like a great bet here too)
Live Betting strategy, aside from looking for typical regression spots during timeouts, is to target a Gonzaga -5.5 live play. If you follow it’s crucial to stay disciplined and only click 5.5 (and not 6.5).
Under 135 Michigan/Villanova
Under 145.5 Arizona/Houston
Texas Tech -1
Gonzaga -9
Under 155 Gonzaga/Arkansas
(If you like Team Totals, Arkansas’ Under 72.5 seems like a great bet here too)
Live Betting strategy, aside from looking for typical regression spots during timeouts, is to target a Gonzaga -5.5 live play. If you follow it’s crucial to stay disciplined and only click 5.5 (and not 6.5).
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In my process, Houston, unders (Gonz, Nova, games) and over in TT/Duke all line up well.
Will likely take some TT + over parlays too, and Zaga moneyline + unders, while looking to hit them in game if the line drops.
Will likely take some TT + over parlays too, and Zaga moneyline + unders, while looking to hit them in game if the line drops.
I will have to take a look at the Zags ML & Under parlay to see how much plus money I can get. I like that one and am generally a fan of correlated parlays as they are often priced incorrectly. Unders on neutral court especially in the first game of a tournament is always my first look.
+125. Vs -110 on the under. If you’re taking Zags -9 with conviction it’s a decent way to swing the 10% vig into a 25% booster if you’re isolating the theme that the Zags D wins the game.
It’s not great, but I’m thinking I’ll play it this way and look to hit Zags in game vs -9. If they come out and lead the whole game the under is a good bet anyway and I’ll take the better odds via that route.
I was hoping for a better price I saw as much as +128 on one site but I passed. I think the Zags break it open in the 2H a lot here (obv since I played them) but if game is close I don’t trust them to win and have seen Notae take over close games late.
Added a small Michigan ML +180 as I feel Dickinson could be a real problem for Nova. Small though.
I knew this was a loser while typing it up.
I did hit the under. Lost the under + zags parlay and lost betting some zags in game.
I’ll win on the Nova under and Nova + under.
We’re onto Texas Tech… and Houston.
6 FT’s in final 30 seconds capped off by the meaningless breakaway dunk just before the buzzer to hit 74. Ouchie.
I took Duke +1600 to win it all before the game. Nice win against Tech and 2 #1 seeds go down. Odds down to +450. Coach K was really fired up last night. His kids are going to run through a brick wall for him. Arkansas is a solid team but Duke has a chance to run the table now.
All the Unders win……All else loses. I think I won a grande Starbucks on the night (seriously).
On the Totals:
I think if you blind play the 4 Unders you have a good chance at 3-1 tonight. My best is clear cut…..U141.5 UNC/UCLA followed by U135 Purdue/St Peters. The best TT Under would be St Peters which is currently priced at 60.5
On the sides:
Kansas/PC - Parity is real in todays game. Friars get some psychological advantage from seeing all the other #1’s go down especially last nights. Intimidation factor took a blow for Kansas. Took Friars +7.5 small the other day and may add a sprinkle ML or a 3-team ML parlay with the two Unders above at close to 10-1
Purdue/St Peters - This is an awful matchup for the Peacocks as their style plays right into Purdue’s hands. The way to beat Purdue to to run Edey in transition and/or pick-n-roll him to the bench as he can’t defend even the most elementary PNR and St Peters does neither. The extended prep time also favors Purdue to understand the tendencies of the simplistic St Peters offense. On the other end, they grind defensively but this should be offset by not having a counter for Edey. I’m unsure how to play this aside from the Under and TT Under but Purdue could really demoralize St Peters by the 2H. Maybe a sprinkle of an Adjusted Line at good plus money? My Final 76-53.
Recap:
Strongest Play - Under UNC/UCLA
Next Best - Purdue -12.5/Under St Peters TT (pick one, split play, your call I’m playing both normally.
On the Totals:
I think if you blind play the 4 Unders you have a good chance at 3-1 tonight. My best is clear cut…..U141.5 UNC/UCLA followed by U135 Purdue/St Peters. The best TT Under would be St Peters which is currently priced at 60.5
On the sides:
Kansas/PC - Parity is real in todays game. Friars get some psychological advantage from seeing all the other #1’s go down especially last nights. Intimidation factor took a blow for Kansas. Took Friars +7.5 small the other day and may add a sprinkle ML or a 3-team ML parlay with the two Unders above at close to 10-1
Purdue/St Peters - This is an awful matchup for the Peacocks as their style plays right into Purdue’s hands. The way to beat Purdue to to run Edey in transition and/or pick-n-roll him to the bench as he can’t defend even the most elementary PNR and St Peters does neither. The extended prep time also favors Purdue to understand the tendencies of the simplistic St Peters offense. On the other end, they grind defensively but this should be offset by not having a counter for Edey. I’m unsure how to play this aside from the Under and TT Under but Purdue could really demoralize St Peters by the 2H. Maybe a sprinkle of an Adjusted Line at good plus money? My Final 76-53.
Recap:
Strongest Play - Under UNC/UCLA
Next Best - Purdue -12.5/Under St Peters TT (pick one, split play, your call I’m playing both normally.
Well that was a gross night - got the game outcome wrong on Gonzaga and Texas Tech and had a lot tied together. That said, only lost 3% of my stack (20 units in the stack) as I did very well in-game (thank you Houston, Houston/Arz under and TT/Duke over). Last week I doubled my stack (20 units), so we have some work to do.
Before I saw HRB's post I took the under in UNC/UCLA. 71% of the bets are on the over, 73% of the money is on the under. This might end up being a 3 unit play pre-game and then look to hammer it in game if it starts well.
Miami has 85% of the bets, while only getting 55% of the money, so I will be taking ISU +3.5 as well.
Before I saw HRB's post I took the under in UNC/UCLA. 71% of the bets are on the over, 73% of the money is on the under. This might end up being a 3 unit play pre-game and then look to hammer it in game if it starts well.
Miami has 85% of the bets, while only getting 55% of the money, so I will be taking ISU +3.5 as well.
Miami has been getting hammered all week by everyone. I just don’t see it. A coin flip seems about right to me so I’m not seeing why the steam.
If you utilize these splits, which it seems you do, FanDuel has 75% of tickets on St Peters and 66% of the money on them. Never a bad idea to fade a public heavy dog.
Yup, that’s my core way to filter ideas in any sport. Follow the money and fade the public, try to isolate times when the spread is particularly large.
In game is either hammering when I have conviction in momentum (a bias towards the under and the action is slow and intense for example will see be putting multiple units during a game). Or reversion to the mean if there is a bad shooting/ fluke turnover (in NFL) type that has skewed the line significantly.
Found out halfway through the 1H that this is the first game these rims and stanchions at the Chicago venue have been used. I got some in-game Under at 127.5 and more 2H Under 72.5. Moving on 1H and FT Under in the second game here, Iowa St/Miami.
Elite Eight!
* Under 147.5 Duke/Arkansas
* (Only playing live if I get my number) Over Houston/Villanova - Two slow but very efficient offenses. I am looking for a slow start to get a number under 117-118. I expect a close game and if one team pulls ahead by 2+ possessions late there could be a ton of FT’s and late baskets down the stretch. I do expect to get this number which is why I’m waiting.
* Under 147.5 Duke/Arkansas
* (Only playing live if I get my number) Over Houston/Villanova - Two slow but very efficient offenses. I am looking for a slow start to get a number under 117-118. I expect a close game and if one team pulls ahead by 2+ possessions late there could be a ton of FT’s and late baskets down the stretch. I do expect to get this number which is why I’m waiting.
Made a ton on the Houston/Nova under…. Gave almost all of it back betting on Houston…. I even started taking the over 105 and Houston +4.5 in game thinking their shooting would mean revert but no, that was asking too much.
…
And finally a game where I don’t have it half right and half wrong. A 12 unit win on Duke and in-game unders. I don’t know how the line never adjusted to below 152 when Duke was up 15 with 9-10 min left and was clearly going to A- slow their offensive pace down to a halt, B - pack the paint to slow Arkansas and C - not get into a late foul/free throw situation.
meanwhile in the NBA, the Celtics went from what +1800 to win the Eastern Conference to +450? So mad I wasn’t in a statewhere I could bet that. Would be a good time to start fading that IMO.
…
And finally a game where I don’t have it half right and half wrong. A 12 unit win on Duke and in-game unders. I don’t know how the line never adjusted to below 152 when Duke was up 15 with 9-10 min left and was clearly going to A- slow their offensive pace down to a halt, B - pack the paint to slow Arkansas and C - not get into a late foul/free throw situation.
meanwhile in the NBA, the Celtics went from what +1800 to win the Eastern Conference to +450? So mad I wasn’t in a statewhere I could bet that. Would be a good time to start fading that IMO.
Not touching the late game just rooting for the guy who won the McDonald’s MVP over Kobe in High School.
* Under 146.5 Kansas/Miami
My number is 10 points lower. I’ll play some Under 1H to protect against late weird stuff but getting down for more than usual on this one.
* Under 146.5 Kansas/Miami
My number is 10 points lower. I’ll play some Under 1H to protect against late weird stuff but getting down for more than usual on this one.
As you know I’ve been riding this Nets train with Durant back and taking advantage of bad lines on the road wi the both Durant and a rested Kyrie. Tonight is another number that leaves me scratching my head. I expect Curry to sit out the 2nd of a B2B with his troublesome ankle but Durant and Kyrie are in and Aldridge is returning……so why is their number so short as a motivated team at home against Charlotte aside from having played last night? It wasn’t a stressful game in blowing out Miami either.
* Brooklyn -6 is my play as I have this number 10.5 and expect another comfortable win.
* Brooklyn -6 is my play as I have this number 10.5 and expect another comfortable win.
I like Minn +6 and Utah -1 as well fwiw
I also went very heavy (10 units) on the Miami/Kansas under with adjusted line leverage and in-game hammering. Took 2 units on Kansas -1.5 and -2,5 in game. That’ll make the weekend.
I played the 2H Under pretty good too. Even took one with 5:15 to go when the algorithms didn’t account for the magnitude of the game which was going to result in KU taking nearly all of the shot clock on each possession until the walk-one enter for the final 60-90 seconds. Once Miami missed on the ensuing possession it was never a sweat.
Took some Under 121.5 UNC/St Peters in-game. Same spot as earlier game. One team isn’t trying to score and will be using all of the clock while the other can’t score.
I was just about to come in here to say they are dominating the Hornets. Charlotte is 10-18 from three, Brooklyn is 5-23. The Nets are down only 5 despite the lopsided 3-pt shooting.
Edit: 11-19 vs 5-24 now. Mental challenge coming up here in the 4Q for Brooklyn.
Relax we got this. Kyrie has 10 Assists after 3 and would be nearing 20 if the trio of Mills/Dragic/Curry weren’t a combined 1-12 while Durant 3-9 from three. Seriously this is a 15-pt lead with expected shooting. Entire 4Q to go.
Maxed out the overnight on my accounts….
* Raptors -1
The upside is on the Celtics not sending a full squad and could see enormous line value to play some middle as well.
* Raptors -1
The upside is on the Celtics not sending a full squad and could see enormous line value to play some middle as well.
Line is up to Raps -8 now (I was able to grab at -1.5). Given that the Raps really need to win every game at this stage I think I would need it go to -10 or so to start considering trying to middle it.
By the way, HRB and RA, I know sometimes this thread can seem like it's just you two but for a relatively new, low-stakes, "just doing it for fun" sports gambler like myself I find your insights to be super helpful even when I don't always agree with them. I don't feel nearly qualified to actually post in this thread yet to any great extent but just wanted to note that.
I know I get PM stuff from those who don’t wish to post but feel free to chime in. What do you mean you don’t always agree?!?!? Lol j/k. Like an old mentor once told me, “If everyone agreed there would be no market.”
As far as tonight. I grabbed the Celtics +8 for 100% of my Raptors -1 as I feel it will close .5 to 1-pt lower on a buy back which is common for these shorthanded games where the books overreact to protect themselves. The 2H of year and particularly down the stretch you can find these obvious risk-free spots if you’re are really paying attention. It’s hard to do unless it is occurring to one of the half dozen or so teams that you follow most closely. I posted it a couple days ago in the other thread that this is a game I’d keep all 5 starters home as this seemed like such an obvious rest spot. I’m surprised I was even able to get an overnight number but they were widely available as they were in the morning as well.
Warning: This is your classic trap/let down spot that occurs regularly in this league. Happened just the other night too. Don’t assume this is an automatic Celtics L as this generally results in the favorite exhaling and not coming to the arena prepared to compete.
Thanks. I’m definitely more of a tourist in this area. I do think when HRB is on a game and it screens in my process it seems to have a very high hit rate and thus we’re able to add some leverage, which is really where I do well (in-game particularly fading moves against and leaning on the gas when the line is anchoring to pre-game vs reality). I also think parlays underprice correlation when you’re isolating a theme and these single game parlays can be really compelling (really betting 3 things all tied to an under and getting 3-1 for it is nice when in theory a low first half and low point total for the underdog should mean a lower total overall). I think I took the under first half, Kansas to win outright and the under 4 points below the normal and got 4-1. In a game where if Miami won they’d be pushing the pace and if they lost the pace of play would be far slower.
I made 25k the last two weekends combined so I’m likely due to get whalloped. Thankfully I won’t be in a betting state for a few weeks!