Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread

Sam Ray Not

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No Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Porter, Iguodala, Bjelica or Wiseman tonight for the Warriors on a segababa in San Antonio. That’s gotta be up there with the best inactive lists of the season.

Probably already baked into all the betting cakes, just a heads up not to take the Warriors tonight unless someone is giving you 15-20 points…
 

JM3

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No Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Porter, Iguodala, Bjelica or Wiseman tonight for the Warriors on a segababa in San Antonio. That’s gotta be up there with the best inactive lists of the season.

Probably already baked into all the betting cakes, just a heads up not to take the Warriors tonight unless someone is giving you 15-20 points…
Spurs are -5.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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No Curry, Thompson, Wiggins, Green, Porter, Iguodala, Bjelica or Wiseman tonight for the Warriors on a segababa in San Antonio. That’s gotta be up there with the best inactive lists of the season.

Probably already baked into all the betting cakes, just a heads up not to take the Warriors tonight unless someone is giving you 15-20 points…
I had Memphis +2 before the Embiid news hit. Line closed Memphis -3.5. They were down 1 and lost by 3 on a breakaway layup at the buzzer. Tonight I’ve got Spurs +2 before the Warriors lineup hit publicly……they are now -5. Let’s see if this works out any better tonight.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Spurs are -5.5
Wow. They’re a lot more confident in Kuminga, Moody, Chiozza, Quinndary Weatherspoon et al. than I am. I guess Poole could always go off for 35, and the Ws always seem to get after on D, but I’d gladly lay the 5.5 points were I a betting man (and +2 is a steal, obviously). That’s why they play the games, tho…
 

Sam Ray Not

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Wow. They’re a lot more confident in Kuminga, Moody, Chiozza, Quinndary Weatherspoon et al. than I am. I guess Poole could always go off for 35, and the Ws always seem to get after on D, but I’d gladly lay the 5.5 points were I a betting man (and +2 is a steal, obviously). That’s why they play the games, tho…
Welp. Warriors putting up a 35-16 fourth quarter with a closing unit of Chiozza-Poole-Lee-Moody-Kuminga is "why they play the games."

Never take betting advice from me!
 

HomeRunBaker

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I had Memphis +2 before the Embiid news hit. Line closed Memphis -3.5. They were down 1 and lost by 3 on a breakaway layup at the buzzer. Tonight I’ve got Spurs +2 before the Warriors lineup hit publicly……they are now -5. Let’s see if this works out any better tonight.
It’s been a pretty incredible NBA season and not in a profitable way. Another game of having huge edge goes down in flames. To save anyone the question about getting that number the last two nights I’ll post one time. Just brutal.

ECBA50EC-7D23-43AE-A626-4080BAAD7369.jpegFB15FEFA-6BE8-4DD3-A4E0-EC8B2F9842FD.png
 

Sam Ray Not

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Ouch. If the Spurs had just thrown in a meaningless, uncontested 3 at the buzzer we both would have gone home happy! Got a good look, too — just rimmed out.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ouch. If the Spurs had just thrown in a meaningless, uncontested 3 at the buzzer we both would have gone home happy! Got a good look, too — just rimmed out.
Right……which is what happened against me the other before (except it was a layup). Fun stuff.
 

HomeRunBaker

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NBA favorites are 9-1 SU and ATS tonight (wrong fave in Philly would have made it 10-0). Now 28-1 SU and (9-1 barring Lakers backdoor) 26-3 ATS. Chalk Eaters Rejoice!
 

HomeRunBaker

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NBA favorites are 9-1 SU and ATS tonight (wrong fave in Philly would have made it 10-0). Now 28-1 SU and (9-1 barring Lakers backdoor) 26-3 ATS. Chalk Eaters Rejoice!
All 3 early games won easily by the favorite. 31-1 SU, 29-3 ATS last 32 games.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Stretch run time let’s ramp up this thread! Meant to do it last night. 2H Totals have been pretty fire of late so I’ll try and post them if I’m around and am divinfWent 1-1 in my Totals (Over Jazz/Rockets, Under Nuggets/Magic).

* Celtics ML -125 already locked in.

Team has come together lately as the super soft schedule has really helped with their cohesiveness that was sorely missing early on. The Sixers losing Curry bumps everyone up a notch in the rotation which has resulted in some fugly offense of late. The U210 is worth a look too or a same-game parlay sprinkle if that’s your thing (or 1H Under). This game should be slow and full of ugly halfcourt sets against the shot clock…..not made for tv. Boston also checks off my intangible box as the hunter here and I feel this game means much more to Boston than it does to Philly tonight.

Boston 103
Philly 96

Edit: NCAA bonus! Tennessee -1.5 over Kentucky
 

Marceline

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Stretch run time let’s ramp up this thread! Meant to do it last night. 2H Totals have been pretty fire of late so I’ll try and post them if I’m around and am divinfWent 1-1 in my Totals (Over Jazz/Rockets, Under Nuggets/Magic).

* Celtics ML -125 already locked in.

Team has come together lately as the super soft schedule has really helped with their cohesiveness that was sorely missing early on. The Sixers losing Curry bumps everyone up a notch in the rotation which has resulted in some fugly offense of late. The U210 is worth a look too or a same-game parlay sprinkle if that’s your thing (or 1H Under). This game should be slow and full of ugly halfcourt sets against the shot clock…..not made for tv. Boston also checks off my intangible box as the hunter here and I feel this game means much more to Boston than it does to Philly tonight.

Boston 103
Philly 96
I am on this and also got some on Boston to win Atlantic division at +600. If they win tonight they are only 1 game behind Philly, +600 seems like great value especially when we don't know how Harden's hamstring will hold up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I am on this and also got some on Boston to win Atlantic division at +600. If they win tonight they are only 1 game behind Philly, +600 seems like great value especially when we don't know how Harden's hamstring will hold up.
Love that play against the Sixer variance. I may take a peak. I grabbed some Celtics at +1950 to win the EC the other day. Philly and Brooklyn are giving great value to others here. Right now the only other in-season Division play I have is a small stab on Cleveland at +800 from earlier in year. My man DerrrrrMar is trying to single-handedly beat me on this one. Someone tell him I’ve been in his corner since the his Raptor days and he shouldn’t be doing me like this!
 

Marceline

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Love that play against the Sixer variance. I may take a peak. I grabbed some Celtics at +1950 to win the EC the other day. Philly and Brooklyn are giving great value to others here. Right now the only other in-season Division play I have is a small stab on Cleveland at +800 from earlier in year. My man DerrrrrMar is trying to single-handedly beat me on this one. Someone tell him I’ve been in his corner since the his Raptor days and he shouldn’t be doing me like this!
Same, I also got some Celtics EC at +2000.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Celtics ML -125 already locked in.
Edit: NCAA bonus! Tennessee -1.5 over Kentucky
Played Cavs/Hawks 2H U108.5 (effective total 235.5)
First two were sweat free and the Sixers offense without Curry since the trade continued to sputter as expected……what wasn’t expected was a record three-point shooting performance by the C’s to kill any same-game parlay sprinkles. College “revenge games” are often overstated unless the first loss was an embarrassment and that’s what Kentucky did by dropping 107 on UT earlier in the year. Such a sweet spot that came through. The last one got off to awful start in the 2H but was actually ahead of the number for a little bit in the 4Q prior to the final run…..hopefully nobody got that one.

Anyway, back to the well tonight with my best being in the Celtics game.
* Played Under 214.5 & 213.5 it’s now sitting at 213. If you’re looking to play I’d grab it now.

Between the Celtics pace on one side of the floor and the Pistons offensive ineptitude on the other I do not foresee Detroit reaching 100 very often in this spot. The teams played two weeks to a 102-93 final. I don’t see much case for them to add an additional 18+ points to that number tonight.


Edit: Ok college bonus! *Uconn 1H -3 (I always look toward 1H college numbers when spread is in the 4-7 pt range as these are difficult numbers to cover.) Huskies and Seton Hall played a barn burner last month when Aiken went off for Hall. UConn was the better team even on the road, they are now coming together and Hall will be without Aiken again as they have struggled scoring since he’s been out. Hall put up B2B 90+ games before he went down but have been in the 60’s and low 70’s in the seven games since.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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3-point shooting variance is real…..and there is absolutely nothing you can do about it.

Pistons 16-30 so far with Boston also at 40%. UConn wins 1H by 1(laying 3) despite shooting 1-10 from three. Some nights all you can do is turn the page.

Edit: Pacers/Wiz with 12 points in the final 11.7 seconds to send my 2H Under…..Over. When it rains it pours. Have 2H U110 Raptors/Wolves and Lakers +4.5 to hopefully finish off the night strong.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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2H All-Star angle.

* Under 144

Tight game could max the 4Q Elam out in the high 40’s plus you’ll get some late 3Q minutes from that slower paced second unit. I kinda like this a lot actually.
 

HomeRunBaker

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2H All-Star angle.

* Under 144

Tight game could max the 4Q Elam out in the high 40’s plus you’ll get some late 3Q minutes from that slower paced second unit. I kinda like this a lot actually.
if only every handicap worked out this perfectly.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I’m expecting the Nets to go on a nice stretch here with Durant’s fresh legs leading the way and placing others into their more comfortable roles. They have 17 games to go and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them close out 14-3, or dare I say better?

This is the time of year where it’s critical to look for fresh & motivated teams. There may not be a more motivated one right now than the Nets.

Played Nets -3 (-115) this morning. It’s up to -4.5 so that’s getting dicey but in a high possession game in Charlotte I’d still lean then at this number.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Nets +4.5

I’m going to ride this potential 17-0 ride to the finish line. This game should at worst go down to the final possession and is one of the regular seasons few MUST WATCH games!
 

BigSoxFan

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* Nets +4.5

I’m going to ride this potential 17-0 ride to the finish line. This game should at worst go down to the final possession and is one of the regular seasons few MUST WATCH games!
I need to get on this train. Good call.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Not NBA but this thread is more active than the gambling forum—DK is doing one of its “can’t miss” promos. Bet up to $50 on Gonzaga ML tomorrow with odds boosted to +100.
 

Red Averages

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Awesome. Thanks. Anyone have conviction in any March madness games/bets? I’m going to start researching tonight/tomorrow.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Love when HRB goes on a run. Do we have a March Madness gambling thread yet?
First round games I like tomorrow (group order of strength). I played the first two groups not the third.

Duke (played 1H & FT) - I have number 8 pts off
Murray St - legit elite 8 team
Vermont

Memphis
Yale
South Dakota St
St Mary’s (Hoosiers travel schedule just brutal)

Baylor
North Carolina
Michigan
 

HomeRunBaker

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Since it’s NBA thread I played Brooklyn & Celtics tonight, the latter for about 2x.

The Warriors are very shorthanded tonight (No Wiggins, No Payton, No Bjelica, Draymond on minites limitstion) and I’m a huge advocate of playing on a team the first game of a long road trip. Motivation advantage to get trip off on right foot (taught to me by a legend decades ago who ran data before computers existed).
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Since it’s NBA thread I played Brooklyn & Celtics tonight, the latter for about 2x.

The Warriors are very shorthanded tonight (No Wiggins, No Payton, No Bjelica, Draymond on minites limitstion) and I’m a huge advocate of playing on a team the first game of a long road trip. Motivation advantage to get trip off on right foot (taught to me by a legend decades ago who ran data before computers existed).
Adding some Celtics 2H +5.5

Warriors came in shorthanded and now looks like Curry and Moody are done for the night. Obv Curry is the critical one as without him this is a lottery team they will field in the 2H against a focused Celtics team. Not sure this is being factored enough into this number.
 

HomeRunBaker

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First round games I like tomorrow (group order of strength). I played the first two groups not the third.

Duke (played 1H & FT) - I have number 8 pts off
Murray St - legit elite 8 team
Vermont

Memphis
Yale
South Dakota St
St Mary’s (Hoosiers travel schedule just brutal)

Baylor
North Carolina
Michigan
Pretty awesome day when the only loser in the group is the one you were rooting against (Go Friars!). I also made a late play on Akron and capped it off with a sprinkle on the double result (pick winner of 1H and winner of game) of Akron/UCLA that cashed at +3500! I only look at these during tournament time bc you get ridiculous value on a live dog.

Today is light for me right now. I obv like Duke the best, I like the Over as well. The other Over I like a lot is Purdue/Yale as it’s all upside at 143/144. Still like Yale based strictly off the Purdue fade as they continue to be overvalued and haven’t covered a game in a month. I think Arizona wins in a rout and like Loyola-Chicago too. If you’re looking for your St Peters today and don’t like using the Ivies I’d look toward Delaware and Montana St, two big dogs I’ll be on.

Aside from the prior paragraph I think the live dogs are Colgate (great 3-pt shooting team), UAB, Chattanooga and Iowa St. I may end up playing one or more of them later. Good Luck!

Edit: To include Montana St which I had accidentally omitted.
 
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Red Averages

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Cleaned up on Michigan, Providence, New Mexico St and Vermont yesterday. Lost on Iowa and a few unders.

I'm rolling with Ohio St, MTST, Delaware, Notre Dame and Davidson. Took a big chunk of Loyola/OSU under as well
 

Red Averages

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This Loyola/OSU game is pure garbage. Teams are playing super slow and can’t hit anything. Might not break 90 points scored in this one. I’ve been hammering the under and adjusted under.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This Loyola/OSU game is pure garbage. Teams are playing super slow and can’t hit anything. Might not break 90 points scored in this one. I’ve been hammering the under and adjusted under.
Super slow and can’t hit a shot? Hmmm, almost like it’s a 1st round Noon start. Weird. I’m upset with myself for not being on this Under.

Re: Double result from earlier post. To give you an idea of how mispriced my line was last night. Akron was +13.5 for game and the Akron/UCLA DR was +3500. I took a peak at the DR in Montana St/TTech which is a similar +14.5/15 number…..and it is +600!! Yeah I think I got lucky in finding that nugget yesterday.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Texas Tech showing me why I have them in The Final Four. 10-11 to start including 4-4 from three. Their offense will slow. I played in-game Under 146.5 just now.
 

Red Averages

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This Loyola/OSU game is pure garbage. Teams are playing super slow and can’t hit anything. Might not break 90 points scored in this one. I’ve been hammering the under and adjusted under.
Just amazing. Over under was 133. With 2 min left these teams have 87 points.
I’ve started betting on Montana st +27.5 and + 25.5 after a tough start to that one.
 

Red Averages

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Texas Tech showing me why I have them in The Final Four. 10-11 to start including 4-4 from three. Their offense will slow. I played in-game Under 146.5 just now.
I’m with you. I like to fade these big early game runs. Hitting the unders and Montana.

Texas Tech is 15-20 in the first half on FGs and 6-9 from 3. That’ll mean revert.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I’m with you. I like to fade these big early game runs. Hitting the unders and Montana.

Texas Tech is 15-20 in the first half on FGs and 6-9 from 3. That’ll mean revert.
I jumped on the 2H Under in Loyola so that eased some of my pain.
 

Red Averages

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Good God Texas Tech. 97 points (outscored the entire OSU-Loyola game). 12-20 from 3. 67% on FGs. Insane.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Good thing it was a light day for me. Iowa St and Chattanooga were the only thing that prevented it from being a real bad one. I’ll take a tolerable loss on a bad day.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Overnight play dorSaturday night.

* Pistons +8

Cavs grinded out a 53 min game tonight coming back in OT to beat the Nuggets. Quick turnaround against a scrappy and rested Pistons team who get both Jeremi Grant and Cade Cunningham back after missing the two previous games. I expected this number to be 5.5 to 6…..is still may be by the time it closes.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Overnight play dorSaturday night.

* Pistons +8

Cavs grinded out a 53 min game tonight coming back in OT to beat the Nuggets. Quick turnaround against a scrappy and rested Pistons team who get both Jeremi Grant and Cade Cunningham back after missing the two previous games. I expected this number to be 5.5 to 6…..is still may be by the time it closes.
Got in at +7, was looking good late until CLE stretched it to 9 with 35 left. Detroit with a bucket for the push BUT the Cavs let the 24 run down and Cade hits a meaningless three to end all meaningless threes at the buzzer for the cover. Beautiful.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Got in at +7, was looking good late until CLE stretched it to 9 with 35 left. Detroit with a bucket for the push BUT the Cavs let the 24 run down and Cade hits a meaningless three to end all meaningless threes at the buzzer for the cover. Beautiful.
That’s awesome. An old reg here who doesn’t post anymore msg me this afternoon that he got 6.5 so super good for him.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thoughts on today’s NBA slate, HRB?
Only play I made was Knicks +3.5 for smaller than average. I need Illinois +4.5 and my MLP (money line parlay) sprinkle of Illini with Arizona and Auburn that was +275 in college.

My only other action today has a good chance of being cancelled. Played Under 21.5 games in Nadal/Fritz with the latter being hobbled by an ankle injury. I can def see him WD down a set and a break in the second but hoping he sucks it up for the 6-4, 6-1 beat down.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I played Celtics -5.5 overnight with the Jazz playing their 3rd game in 4 nights in the middle of a road trip during a busy month for them. This will be their 13th game in 22 days and a lot of travel. Couple this with the Jazz not being a great road team and the non-zero chance of them sitting a guy or two I felt I had some upside. It’s since been bet down to 4.5 so that end isn’t looking so hot but rising the Celtics train here.

Also played Knicks and Lakers, both +7.5
 

ElUno20

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God damn everyone to hell involved in that magic warriors stinker last night.

I know they play slow as hell but im leaning over the 219 dallas/houston tonight and either embiid or lebron's points prop if they are 29/30 ish.
 

BigSoxFan

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Brooklyn -1 on road against Memphis who will be without Ja Morant. Seems like a decent opportunity for Kyrie/Durant, no?