Beyond The Bubble - Official 2021-22 NBA Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Not to be confused with the “Unofficial” thread (don’t look….it doesn’t exist).

Digging deep into Season Win Totals and other props this week. I’m limited on props with Florida not yet ready to go until end of the month live with online still being argued whether the Seminole tribe has exclusivity to mobile as well. (Nice grammar…..screw it I’m gonna ramble)

Made two plays so far:

* Over 52.5 Utah

This is one of my products of fading the public group of Lakers, Warriors, Blazers, etc without being locked into them all individually. The Jazz play a great regular season style and I don’t see that changing. I’m looking at some other teams in the 30’s and low 40’s to add some Over positions but this is biggest to start.

* Under 51.5 Phoenix

One fade in the West that I absolutely do want a position on are the Suns. Much like how the Lakers took the reg season personal two years ago…..we were all over this here that year…..only to focus on health and playoffs last year (how did that work out?) I expect a similar approach by the Suns. Classic let down spot that we see year in and year out following a fully focused year and deep playoff run in all sports (hope you guys have been fading the Chiefs). The other factor is luck/injury……incredible how healthy the Suns were last year so aside from the mental approach of playing more toward the playoffs we have the physical regression in play as well. I reallly really like this play.


* I was excited to play a Chicago Over until I saw the number at 43 Wins. Ugh hard pass, I was hoping for 38-39 range. It may be a blessing as a couple injuries could cripple them with such little depth.

* I’m unsure what market Otto Porter would fall into or if the NBA even has a Comeback Player of Year award but if they did/do he is a prime candidate in a perfect system with Steph and Dray.

Hey @bowiac are you posting your Win projections this year? Always one of my favorites to look out for.
 
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JM3

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For some reason I want to bet Thunder over 23.5 wins, -105.

Oh, that reason is SHAI.

I probably won't do it though.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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For some reason I want to bet Thunder over 23.5 wins, -105.

Oh, that reason is SHAI.

I probably won't do it though.
I don’t mind that at all. I like a ton of WC Overs with the opportunity for so many of the historically good teams at 45+ wins to crash for one reason or another. If one or two do then those wins have to be picked up somewhere. Right now, Memphis is probably next on my list to hit for an Over.
 

Leon Trotsky

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How would one go about making a season-long prop bet online in say, MA? Does it require driving to RI or something? Would make watching some non-Celtics games more interesting, I think.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How would one go about making a season-long prop bet online in say, MA? Does it require driving to RI or something? Would make watching some non-Celtics games more interesting, I think.
You have the NH option if you’re north of Boston. If you’re looking for season-long entertainment it’s worth a drive. Good foliage this week too if you appreciate that kind of stuff.
 

JM3

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I don’t mind that at all. I like a ton of WC Overs with the opportunity for so many of the historically good teams at 45+ wins to crash for one reason or another. If one or two do then those wins have to be picked up somewhere. Right now, Memphis is probably next on my list to hit for an Over.
It's hard to get excited about the proposition on betting over on a team which is actively trying to lose. If I was guaranteed a full season of SGA, or even just normal injury risk, sure.

Memphis is another weird one because they don't seem primarily focused on short-term winning.

41.5 is a pretty fair line, but yeah, if I had to bet one way, it would be betting on Ja/JJJ.
 

HomeRunBaker

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It's hard to get excited about the proposition on betting over on a team which is actively trying to lose. If I was guaranteed a full season of SGA, or even just normal injury risk, sure.

Memphis is another weird one because they don't seem primarily focused on short-term winning.

41.5 is a pretty fair line, but yeah, if I had to bet one way, it would be betting on Ja/JJJ.
I get the hesitancy on OKC……which is why I likely won’t play them either. I had Memphis at 45 myself which didn’t factor any colossal collapses by some of the teams I’ve mentioned so for me adding this variable to my numbers makes me ready to begin clicking. Unlike the Bulls say, Memphis is ridiculously deep for a middle of the pack team which is a big plus in the regular season. 38-34 with JJJ for only 11 games and he’s ready to breakout one of these years as his strength increases.

* I’m ready to click me some Over Memphis.
 

JM3

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I get the hesitancy on OKC……which is why I likely won’t play them either. I had Memphis at 45 myself which didn’t factor any colossal collapses by some of the teams I’ve mentioned so for me adding this variable to my numbers makes me ready to begin clicking. Unlike the Bulls say, Memphis is ridiculously deep for a middle of the pack team which is a big plus in the regular season. 38-34 with JJJ for only 11 games and he’s ready to breakout one of these years as his strength increases.

* I’m ready to click me some Over Memphis.
My Memphis hesitancy relates to swapping out JV for SA, which makes sense long term as part of their asset churning plan, but definitely doesn't help this year.

But yeah, almost no JJJ & gimpy Ja last year...tempting.
 

JM3

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I like the over on Celtics at 45.5, but hate that it's -135.

(just placed small bets on Nets over 56.5 +105 & Pistons under 25.5 +100)
 

BigSoxFan

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Any idea why Draft Kings doesn’t let you parlay these? Kind of boring to wait 6+ months for a -105 payout.
 

Joe Sixpack

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Yeah, probably easier to go south, but might have reason to head up to NH as well. Will look into it, thanks!
Twin River has a mobile app you can use to place bets anywhere within the RI border, but I think it requires an in person visit to the sportsbook to do the initial setup. If you're closer to RI it's worth a visit.
 

TripleOT

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I’ll be there in two weeks. Can’t wait to see Circa.
I’m at the Golden Nugget. The sports book at Circa is impressive, if you’re into comfortable seating and lots of massive televisions.

The rest of Circa is certainly an upgrade over most of the casinos downtown, but nothing special compared to many of those on the Strip.

If you like the outside vibe walking around down here, as opposed to being on the Strip, Circa is a more upscale option.

HRB, what poker rooms do you like in LV?
 

JM3

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I played at the Nugget the other day for the 1st time in years.

When I moved to Vegas 10 years ago it was actually to make a living playing poker until I became a member of the Bar.

Hardly play anymore between work & kids. My favorites are probably Wynn & Aria, though, at this point.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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I’m at the Golden Nugget. The sports book at Circa is impressive, if you’re into comfortable seating and lots of massive televisions.

The rest of Circa is certainly an upgrade over most of the casinos downtown, but nothing special compared to many of those on the Strip.

If you like the outside vibe walking around down here, as opposed to being on the Strip, Circa is a more upscale option.

HRB, what poker rooms do you like in LV?
How long are you out there for? Pre-Covid I was there mostly only during WSOP. Venetian was always my favorite for 2/5 but I heard that went downhill. I really used to enjoy the ambiance of Planet Hollywood and play in some loose 1/2 games with no stress…..those games were fun and filled with tourist fish. I think they closed that room though.
 

JM3

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Yeah, PH closed a couple months ago. Was usually a good time. No matter how many times they moved the room.