Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

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nighthob

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There are definitely some iterations that make sense cutting out both the Angels & Twins...

Maybe something like...

Betts/Price (half-subsidized)/Lin

Verdugo/Gray/Stripling/Pederson/random A ball dude?
I was mostly kidding with the Lin remark, but I do like Andy Pages' numbers. And there are definite two team versions of the deal that work if LA wasn't in prospect hoarding mode. They clearly want to clear the low/no upside players off their major league roster over trading any real prospects, which is how Minnesota got involved to begin with. I don't mind Graterol, because he's precisely the sort of reliever you need when you're in the same division as New York. But they really do need something else to balance the thing out over a reliever and an OF with back problems.
 

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Why would they "cut the Angels out" of the deal? The Angels weren't IN this deal; the Pederson trade was a separate animal
 

Sox Puppet

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The market is what the market is. But if Verdugo and Grat is the best the Sox could get for Mookie and Price, then perhaps the Sox should uncouple the package.

It seems Price is overvalued at 3/96 so but at 3/48 he's worth prospects.
Yeah, that's what I'm thinking as well. I would get taking a lesser offer for Mookie to "staple" Price's 3/96 to him. But at 3/48, couldn't you just literally give him away to some team in need of a starter and take back nothing in return? Wouldn't most teams jump at a heavily subsidized former Cy Young winner on a 3-year contract? We're paying a higher AAV for Eovaldi, after all.

In that case, you should just get whatever a year of Mookie is worth, which I think is quite a bit more than Verdugo and Graterol.
 

JM3

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I was mostly kidding with the Lin remark, but I do like Andy Pages' numbers. And there are definite two team versions of the deal that work if LA wasn't in prospect hoarding mode. They clearly want to clear the low/no upside players off their major league roster over trading any real prospects, which is how Minnesota got involved to begin with. I don't mind Graterol, because he's precisely the sort of reliever you need when you're in the same division as New York. But they really do need something else to balance the thing out over a reliever and an OF with back problems.
I didn't even realize you had mentioned Lin haha, I just know we have too many utility infielders & not enough outfielders, & if we do a trade without Pederson, we're probably signing someone of a similar caliber to slightly less $$$ anyway. I think when I was formulating that, I was overestimating how much of a salary dump Joc represented for the Dodgers - likely due to the weird formation where the player-to-be-named from the Angels is probably the biggest piece.
 

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Yeah, I doubt it. The Globe take has been consistently negative on the deal and on the team's decision making. We shall see.
Yeah Mookie has such a clear and sterling reputation that a smear job would just look phony and manufactured. Plus the big piece coming back is not exactly a choir boy. There are certain instances where a smear campaign won't work. This is one of them.
The closest thing to a smear campaign that might be conducted would be to restate the rumors that Mookie turned down 10 years for 320 or whatever the number was. However, that is not really a smear in the same light as he Terry Fracona was treated on his way out the door
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, this isn't falling through, but if it did, they'd get Verdugo back. It's hard to talk definitively about the LAD/LAA deal when we still don't know a seemingly crucial piece, whoever the Angels are sending back in addition to Rengifo.
 

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You are probably far more versed in reading medical charts and MRIs than I, and likely far more versed in MLB's procedures regarding contestesd trades, but it seems that even if the sox were given medical information that Grat was good to go, if he does not pass the Sox physical, and is in their opinion damaged goods beyond what was disclosed, I would think they are within their rights to negate the deal, or look for additional compsensation.
Both sides are going to have doctors that can read MRIs and medical charts
You are probably far more versed in reading medical charts and MRIs than I, and likely far more versed in MLB's procedures regarding contestesd trades, but it seems that even if the sox were given medical information that Grat was good to go, if he does not pass the Sox physical, and is in their opinion damaged goods beyond what was disclosed, I would think they are within their rights to negate the deal, or look for additional compsensation.
If I looked at MRIs, I would probably holding them upside down, but the key is "beyond what was disclosed". I don't think it is a claim that the Sox can make on a whim.
 

nighthob

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Yeah, this isn't falling through, but if it did, they'd get Verdugo back. It's hard to talk definitively about the LAD/LAA deal when we still don't know a seemingly crucial piece, whoever the Angels are sending back in addition to Rengifo.
The Angels deal is only necessary as a salary dump to stay under the luxury tax line after adding $43 million in salary commitments. So if the Betts deal did fall through (which I think we can all agree won't happen), then there's no need to make the Pederson one.
 

bankshot1

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Both sides are going to have doctors that can read MRIs and medical charts


If I looked at MRIs, I would probably holding them upside down, but the key is "beyond what was disclosed". I don't think it is a claim that the Sox can make on a whim.
A dr's opinion is not a whim, its a medical opinion.

If a dr. informs the Sox they are taking on more medical risk than they were initially informed of, they should inform the other party.

and if there is not meeting of the minds, as far as I know, either party can walk away.
 

jon abbey

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The Angels deal is only necessary as a salary dump to stay under the luxury tax line after adding $43 million in salary commitments.
We don't really know this, possibly the point of this deal from the Dodgers' perspective is to turn Pederson and Stripling into a prospect like Brandon Marsh.
 

JimD

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Anyone else miss the days when you didn’t need to be an doctor or an MBA to evaluate baseball trades?
Those were also the days when your GM might give away a stud hitting prospect for a middle reliever because he couldn't be bothered to learn the players in his farm system.

Pass.
 

RedOctober3829

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The Angels deal is only necessary as a salary dump to stay under the luxury tax line after adding $43 million in salary commitments. So if the Betts deal did fall through (which I think we can all agree won't happen), then there's no need to make the Pederson one.
No it's not just a salary dump. They needed to make a move because they have too many OFers. Their starters are Betts, Bellinger, and Pollock with Chris Taylor and Kyle Garlick as the backups. Pederson did not fit anymore.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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What if LA cancels the deal with Minnesota and just gives the Sox Maeda instead of Graterol? Maeda's not exciting, I know, but he's an average-ish pitcher without major health issues (at least, I can't find any evidence of any), wrapped up for the next four years at a price so low that if he tanks they can DFA him without worrying about it. He is a plug-in replacement for Price in much the same way Verdugo is for Betts -- not as good, but good enough to contribute, and much cheaper.

Obviously, getting a high-upside prospect would be better, but in terms of continuing to contend this year, this would have its advantages.

EDIT: This is assuming it's possible for a team to back out of a deal with another team based on a 3rd team's balking at the medicals. Not sure how the rules work there.
 

burstnbloom

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Sox look a bit bad here on Graterol just because him being a likely reliever going forward was common knowledge before the deal, as I wrote here last night.

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1225433186123091968
I'm sorry but this is not a good take. There is a monumental difference between thinking a guy is likely a reliever because of his pitch mix, or holding velocity late into a start, or anything like that and taking a look at an MRI, doing a shoulder strength test and saying "this won't last 150+ innings a year." The Sox could look at Graterol's performance and say they think they can help him get a better feel for the change and make him into an effective starter when the Twins didn't see that, but its completely reasonable that they would feel there is a biological reason he wouldn't hit his ceiling after an exam.
 
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The market is what the market is. But if Verdugo and Grat is the best the Sox could get for Mookie and Price, then perhaps the Sox should uncouple the package.

It seems Price is overvalued at 3/96 so but at 3/48 he's worth prospects.

Mookie is arguably the 2nd best player in baseball, he's worth something of value even as a 1 year rental.

the kicker here that is dragging the deal down for the Sox is the perception they have to sell for financial reasons.

if this can't get sweetened, walk away and revisit this mid-season.
Savin Hillbilly has been noting the values in the Trade Simulator. Price's value is listed as -55 (million). Which is based on his estimated WAR value for the remainder of his contract ($41M) less his remaining salary ($96M). So even paying half of Price's remaining $96M ($48M) only brings his trade value to -7. I've seen other posters noting that pitchers such as Kluber Keuchel (thanks to Jon Abbey for the correction) have signed contracts this off-season for roughly what the subsidized Price will cost the Dodgers -- and those pitchers only cost money, not money and prospects.
The point is: No, even at 3/48 David Price is not worth prospects. He is the Carl Crawford of this deal -- they guy the Sox have to package with a decent player in order to move his contract.
 
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jon abbey

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Savin Hillbilly has been noting the values in the Trade Simulator. Price's value is listed as -55 (million). Which is based on his estimated WAR value for the remainder of his contract ($41M) less his remaining salary ($96M). So even paying half of Price's remaining $96M ($48M) only brings his trade value to -7. I've seen other posters noting that pitchers such as Kluber have signed contracts this off-season for roughly what the subsidized Price will cost the Dodgers -- and those pitchers only cost money, not money and prospects.
The point is: No, even at 3/48 David Price is not worth prospects. He is the Carl Crawford of this deal -- they guy the Sox have to package with a decent player in order to move his contract.
I think you mean Keuchel, not Kluber.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I feel like everyone getting excited about a different package coming back are about to be disappointed.
Correct - has everyone already forgot the big brouhaha over the Kyrie trade due to IT3's hip injury? The Celtics then were in precisely the same situation the Dodgers/Twins are in now, and ultimately gave up just a second-round pick after much hand-wringing about whether the trade would be called off. The equivalent of a second-round pick in MLB terms is probably (a) agreeing to take on more of Price's deal, (b) transferring some international signing money, or (c) maybe throwing in a low-A, fringe-type prospect. Anyone who thinks the trade will be called off or materially restructured is deluding themselves (and I want that to happen as much as anybody).
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Correct - has everyone already forgot the big brouhaha over the Kyrie trade due to IT3's hip injury? The Celtics then were in precisely the same situation the Dodgers/Twins are in now, and ultimately gave up just a second-round pick after much hand-wringing about whether the trade would be called off. The equivalent of a second-round pick in MLB terms is probably (a) agreeing to take on more of Price's deal, (b) transferring some international signing money, or (c) maybe throwing in a low-A, fringe-type prospect. Anyone who thinks the trade will be called off or materially restructured is deluding themselves (and I want that to happen as much as anybody).
You may be right, but I'm not so sure.

With regard to (a), I don't think the Sox care that much about lowering the subsidy - getting under 208 was the only priority, and they're comfortably under that already. Being further below doesn't help them much at this point of the offseason, when there's not much else left to spend it on.
(b) and (c) gives them something more of value, but maybe not enough to compensate for the difference between Graterol as a SP and as a reliever.

And if any of these were likely, or if the Sox were willing to take Maeda instead of Graterol,, I think the deal would be done by now. I still think it's likely that they're trying to rework the deal to include a young SP in lieu of Graterol. And this is taking some time - if the Dodgers are still balking at giving up one of their young SPs, maybe they are looking for a third team (besides the Twins) with a young SP that Bloom would take.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Fair or not, the Sox look really incompetent.
There are two possibilities here, neither of which are good. The first is that the Sox did a lot of due diligence on Verdugo and Graterol and nonetheless decided they were worth it despite significant injury histories on both and serious character issues on Verdugo's part. The second is that they didn't do a lot of due diligence because they felt rushed to deal Mookie before the start of spring training and missed some of Verdugo's issues and didn't look as closely into Graterol as they should have.

I agree it's not entirely fair because obviously the Sox couldn't have known things about Graterol that were only knowable by reviewing his medical records, but given that he'd already had multiple relatively serious injuries it certainly doesn't look great.
 

Marbleheader

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Fair or not, the Sox look really incompetent.
I don't see why in this case. Guys fail physicals in all sports. I can't blame them for being cautious here given the fact that they just dumped a lot of money on Sale. Getting damaged goods, especially for a beloved star athlete, is far more incompetent.
 

Green Monster

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There are two possibilities here, neither of which are good. The first is that the Sox did a lot of due diligence on Verdugo and Graterol and nonetheless decided they were worth it despite significant injury histories on both and serious character issues on Verdugo's part. The second is that they didn't do a lot of due diligence because they felt rushed to deal Mookie before the start of spring training and missed some of Verdugo's issues and didn't look as closely into Graterol as they should have.

I agree it's not entirely fair because obviously the Sox couldn't have known things about Graterol that were only knowable by reviewing his medical records, but given that he'd already had multiple relatively serious injuries it certainly doesn't look great.
.........or the deal leaked before they had completed their due diligence
 

effectivelywild

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Savin Hillbilly has been noting the values in the Trade Simulator. Price's value is listed as -55 (million). Which is based on his estimated WAR value for the remainder of his contract ($41M) less his remaining salary ($96M). So even paying half of Price's remaining $96M ($48M) only brings his trade value to -7. I've seen other posters noting that pitchers such as Kluber have signed contracts this off-season for roughly what the subsidized Price will cost the Dodgers -- and those pitchers only cost money, not money and prospects.
The point is: No, even at 3/48 David Price is not worth prospects. He is the Carl Crawford of this deal -- they guy the Sox have to package with a decent player in order to move his contract.
As much as his salary drags down his value, I think the following three numbers are also why his trade "value" is so low: 107.1,176.0, 74.2. Those are the number of innings he's pitched in the last three years. If we were acquiring a pitcher who two out of the last three seasons had pitched ~100 innings or less, we would also be skeptical about ever being able to count on him in the rotation.
 

OurF'ingCity

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.........or the deal leaked before they had completed their due diligence
Fair point. I was actually going to say that all the stuff about Graterol smacks of a HIPAA violation somewhere - it really sucks for him/Twins if that portion of the the deal is called off, and it really sucks for him/Sox if that portion of the deal goes through because he's now known as a "damaged asset" regardless of what happens.
 

nighthob

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There are two possibilities here, neither of which are good. The first is that the Sox did a lot of due diligence on Verdugo and Graterol and nonetheless decided they were worth it despite significant injury histories on both and serious character issues on Verdugo's part. The second is that they didn't do a lot of due diligence because they felt rushed to deal Mookie before the start of spring training and missed some of Verdugo's issues and didn't look as closely into Graterol as they should have.

I agree it's not entirely fair because obviously the Sox couldn't have known things about Graterol that were only knowable by reviewing his medical records, but given that he'd already had multiple relatively serious injuries it certainly doesn't look great.
There is option 3, that after agreeing to the trade and seeing Graterol's actual medicals they realized that he was damaged enough to be limited to bullpen work going forward, and told LA, "We're not signing off on this with Graterol's arm being limited, we're going to need some adjustments."

I do hope that some of it comes in extra draft pool money so that they can make a run at Oscar Colas now, since he's the sort of high upside guy they'd need in the post-Betts era.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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There are two possibilities here, neither of which are good. The first is that the Sox did a lot of due diligence on Verdugo and Graterol and nonetheless decided they were worth it despite significant injury histories on both and serious character issues on Verdugo's part. The second is that they didn't do a lot of due diligence because they felt rushed to deal Mookie before the start of spring training and missed some of Verdugo's issues and didn't look as closely into Graterol as they should have.

I agree it's not entirely fair because obviously the Sox couldn't have known things about Graterol that were only knowable by reviewing his medical records, but given that he'd already had multiple relatively serious injuries it certainly doesn't look great.
This is where I'm at. This all seems very rushed. Its almost like Bloom was told take the best deal you can get by February 4th. Just weird.
 

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Disagree. They were incompetent when they chose to not undo the trade for Pomeranz when they discovered they'd been lied to. This is just run of the mill poor business practice.
Were they really incompetent in the Pomeranz trade? They essentially got Drew for nothing and he was a solid contributor for 2 and a half years. Not sure you can argue with that trade.
 

jon abbey

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Fair point. I was actually going to say that all the stuff about Graterol smacks of a HIPAA violation somewhere - it really sucks for him/Twins if that portion of the the deal is called off, and it really sucks for him/Sox if that portion of the deal goes through because he's now known as a "damaged asset" regardless of what happens.
I mean, this is his history, so not sure it’s exactly news. From the latest Speier piece:

“ Injury risk was a known part of Graterol’s profile, and part of the reason why many view him more as a potential reliever than starter. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and didn’t pitch at all in 2016. In May 2018, he dealt with back spasms, followed by shoulder impingement syndrome in 2019.”
 

Average Game James

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I mean, this is his history, so not sure it’s exactly news. From the latest Speier piece:

“ Injury risk was a known part of Graterol’s profile, and part of the reason why many view him more as a potential reliever than starter. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2015 and didn’t pitch at all in 2016. In May 2018, he dealt with back spasms, followed by shoulder impingement syndrome in 2019.”
But the RP assessment is just really semi-informed speculation on the part of scouts based on his past history - and even there it was “many” and not “all.” There’s a big different between “he’s been hurt a lot and might be limited to being a reliever” and “wow, these scans look awful - he’s very likely limited to being a reliever.”
 

FredCDobbs

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Bloom should go to Friedman and say "Man, I'm getting KILLED on this deal. Blowback way worse than I expected. And now my future ace is hurt? That's not gonna work for me. Guess we'll take it to the trade deadline and I'll trade Price separately once he re-establishes value. Crazy league, huh?" and hang up
 

curly2

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There's a difference between a guy who is viewed as a reliever because he has only two pitches and not the three most starters need and a guy who is a reliever because his body will never stand a starter's workload.

Mike Timlin, for example, was a reliever because of repertoire. He was healthy as a horse his whole career, but didn't have a starter's pitch mix. But he was damn good as a reliever.

If the Sox thought they could teach Graterol a third pitch to make him a starter and found out from his medicals that he wouldn't hold up, than that's not Bloom's fault. And as has been pointed out, nobody on any of the teams announced this trade. Reporters found out through sources. The Sox aren't trying to back out of a done deal. It was always contingent on the medicals.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is where I'm at. This all seems very rushed. Its almost like Bloom was told take the best deal you can get by February 4th. Just weird.
It feels rushed only because reporters have to race to be first and break news before it's ready to be broken, and therefore we know about it before all the Ts have been crossed. That, and this insane need to have all the info now now now now NOW when it's not all there yet.
 

BaseballJones

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There's a difference between a guy who is viewed as a reliever because he has only two pitches and not the three most starters need and a guy who is a reliever because his body will never stand a starter's workload.

Mike Timlin, for example, was a reliever because of repertoire. He was healthy as a horse his whole career, but didn't have a starter's pitch mix. But he was damn good as a reliever.

If the Sox thought they could teach Graterol a third pitch to make him a starter and found out from his medicals that he wouldn't hold up, than that's not Bloom's fault. And as has been pointed out, nobody on any of the teams announced this trade. Reporters found out through sources. The Sox aren't trying to back out of a done deal. It was always contingent on the medicals.
It feels rushed only because reporters have to race to be first and break news before it's ready to be broken, and therefore we know about it before all the Ts have been crossed. That, and this insane need to have all the info now now now now NOW when it's not all there yet.
Both these posts are spot-on. None of the three teams broadcast this deal. It got leaked. Reporters HAD to report it first. Every deal is always contingent upon the medical exams. And I read yesterday that the guys IN the deal weren't even informed by the teams yet. So obviously they heard in the news but the teams hadn't informed them. So as far as the teams were all concerned, this was not a *done* deal yet.
 

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You know what is worse than reporters being in a rush to announce a deal that isn't finalized? At least a little? COT's updating their team spreadsheets to show that the trade is already complete.

I was a little surprised by that.
 

Marbleheader

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Bloom should go to Friedman and say "Man, I'm getting KILLED on this deal. Blowback way worse than I expected. And now my future ace is hurt? That's not gonna work for me. Guess we'll take it to the trade deadline and I'll trade Price separately once he re-establishes value. Crazy league, huh?" and hang up
Sure, if he never wants to complete a trade again and ruin his shot at being a GM, it's a great idea.
 

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Bloom should go to Friedman and say "Man, I'm getting KILLED on this deal. Blowback way worse than I expected. And now my future ace is hurt? That's not gonna work for me. Guess we'll take it to the trade deadline and I'll trade Price separately once he re-establishes value. Crazy league, huh?" and hang up
This seems like a straight fantasy. I get that a lot of people don't want Mookie to leave, but if Bloom didn't expect this level of blowback then he's way less prepared for his job than we were lead to believe.
 

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You know what is worse than reporters being in a rush to announce a deal that isn't finalized? At least a little? COT's updating their team spreadsheets to show that the trade is already complete.

I was a little surprised by that.
I'm not sure if COTs was the one that I was looking at, but at least one site had the rosters updated within minutes of the news breaking.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
As much as his salary drags down his value, I think the following three numbers are also why his trade "value" is so low: 107.1,176.0, 74.2. Those are the number of innings he's pitched in the last three years. If we were acquiring a pitcher who two out of the last three seasons had pitched ~100 innings or less, we would also be skeptical about ever being able to count on him in the rotation.
Especially if said pitcher was 34 years old--not terribly old for a healthy pitcher, but old enough that Bob Dylan's line may start to apply: "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way."
 

amRadio

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This seems like a straight fantasy. I get that a lot of people don't want Mookie to leave, but if Bloom didn't expect this level of blowback then he's way less prepared for his job than we were lead to believe.
I would argue that if Bloom is happy to accept flawed medical reports on the centerpiece of a deal for the 2nd best player in baseball, that he's way less prepared for his job than we were lead to believe.
 
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As much as his salary drags down his value, I think the following three numbers are also why his trade "value" is so low: 107.1,176.0, 74.2. Those are the number of innings he's pitched in the last three years. If we were acquiring a pitcher who two out of the last three seasons had pitched ~100 innings or less, we would also be skeptical about ever being able to count on him in the rotation.
Especially if said pitcher was 34 years old--not terribly old for a healthy pitcher, but old enough that Bob Dylan's line may start to apply: "You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way."
I'd guess both of these points are part of the Trade Simulator's assessment of the positive side of his value.
 

ookami7m

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Remember Antonio Alfonseca who had extra digits? Georgie Porgie wanted to have them removed.
I can't ever think of Alfonseca without remembering quite possibly the greatest sports Onion headline of all time:
"Antonio Alfonseca Once Again Leads Major-League Relievers In Fingers"

 
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