Baseball America Top 100 ‘23: 5 Red Sox
- Thread starter SouthernBoSox
- Start date
If only the guys that Law projected to be SPs were allowed to be SPs, there would be about 20 SPs in MLB at any time. He said Luis Severino didn't project as a long term starter (everyone else disagreed), then he was a top 3 AL SP (behind Sale and Kluber) for a season and a half.
I have never been a huge Law fan but his recent work is embarrassing and ESPN really needs to replace/upgrade him.
You'll be glad to know Law hasn't written for ESPN for over two years now.
Your vendetta against Law is curious. I know many on the board discounted Law when he whiffed on his assessment of Pedroia, but that would be curious for a Yankee fan.
Law and all your prospect guys such as McDaniel will usually be pointing out the chances of a minor league SP moving to the pen due to a number of factors. Thats not exclusive to Law.
Yeah, I meant The Athletic, sorry.
My 'vendetta' is just that I pay for The Athletic and I think he is bad at his job, he has been doing it a long time, he was never anything special and now he has slipped from that. His pieces are consistently lazy, sloppy, poorly researched and ill-informed. The Athletic upgraded their Yankee coverage recently (it's much more frequent than before, two writers who both write more pieces than the previous writer did) and I hope they get a better prospect writer soon.
Multiple outlets had Bello as a top-100 prospect on in-season updates. 37 on MLB, somewhere on Fangraphs , etc.
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Heh, I mean, you can look him up but he had a few moments in the show. Nothing memorable.
It's kind of wild that Casey Kelly was as highly regarded a top prospect (#22 on MLB's 2011 list) as he was. He was young for his level, which accounts for a lot, but the numbers really don't stand out.
Here's Casey Kelly's AA line as a 20-year-old in 2010, the season before the trade:
21 GS, 95 IP, 18.9 K%, 8.2 BB%, 0.95 HR/9, 44.2 GB%, 5.31 ERA, 4.20 FIP
...and here's another current Sox prospect's line as a 20-year-old in AA in 2021:
13 GS, 86 IP, 24.0 K%, 4.2 BB%, 0.94 HR/9, 48.1 GB%, 2.40 ERA, 3.59 FIP
Anyone wanna guess who this is?
Victor Santos
(just kidding, he's not really considered a prospect — #60 in our system according to SoxProspects)
(just kidding, he's not really considered a prospect — #60 in our system according to SoxProspects)
Yep- two way prospect. He preferred to play SS, but the Sox wanted him to pitch.
He was only a SS his first pro season. The organization allowed him to try in order to entice him to sign. He was a two sport star (He was also a QB if memory serves) and had a little leverage. The consensus when he was drafted was that he would not likely have been drafted on day one as a SS, that his future was on the mound. He really wanted to try and spoke of preferring playing every game (sort of like how Dalbec told folks he didn't want to pitch when he was drafted).
I think people forget how well regarded Kelly was as a prospect. He appeared in multiple top 100 lists, with Boston and continued to be well-regarded in San Deigo. Injuries stalled him out before he had a nice run in Asia.
He's also nearing his mid 30's, so I don't think this counts as recent history.
He only pitched two full seasons and that was 4 years ago, right? This reads to me like Law got it right when no one else did.
Kelley plays in the Korean Baseball Organization league, where he had a nifty career the last four years, and will continue this year to play for the LG Twins.
Dead ringer for David Foster Wallace. But perhaps that’s the wrong phrase…
FG released the “Imminent Big Leaguers” version of their write up of Boston’s system and I’d have to say that those are two of the worst names to see comparisons to in that Mayer blurb! (FTR, I don’t think the author is suggesting things will be as bad for Mayer as it was for those two.)
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-report-red-sox-2023-imminent-big-leaguers
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-report-red-sox-2023-imminent-big-leaguers
Kind of some scary names in the Casas writeup too, especially since we know a couple of them so well!
Still can't get over all these prospect guys rating Yoshida at the bottom of or outside the top 100 prospects in baseball. Longenhangen doesn't have Yoshida in his top-112 (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-top-100-prospects/), and as that imminent big leaguers piece^ indicates he does indeed slot Yoshida below Yorke and equivalent to Walter as a 45+.
After seeing how good Japan is on the national stage with an impressive lineup and a stable of hardthrowing pitchers--shouldn't the cleanup hitter for Japan's team that's considered a top-3 hitter there the past 5 years earn more respect? I get that he drops because he's 29 and his future value is already used up to some degree. But looking back at previous top-100 lists and only a handful of these guys end up producing any value! Yoshida has such a high floor I just don't understand. Anyway, as I said on another thread, will enjoy tweeting at these prospect heads for years (although the odds of twitter still existing might be lower than Yoshida playing well).
After seeing how good Japan is on the national stage with an impressive lineup and a stable of hardthrowing pitchers--shouldn't the cleanup hitter for Japan's team that's considered a top-3 hitter there the past 5 years earn more respect? I get that he drops because he's 29 and his future value is already used up to some degree. But looking back at previous top-100 lists and only a handful of these guys end up producing any value! Yoshida has such a high floor I just don't understand. Anyway, as I said on another thread, will enjoy tweeting at these prospect heads for years (although the odds of twitter still existing might be lower than Yoshida playing well).
If I was doing prospect rankings I'd probably bump him down significantly for lack of cost-controlled years which limits surplus value, which means that even if Yoshida is a better player than Yorke, Yorke could easily be a more valuable player, but I doubt they're factoring that in.
Kiley McDaniel/ESPN has a new top 50 out.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/37708227/top-50-2023-mlb-prospects-updated-de-la-cruz-mayer-holliday?platform=amp
Mayer #3 (up from 7)
Roman Anthony #49
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1661354747046002689
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1661380227480670214
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/37708227/top-50-2023-mlb-prospects-updated-de-la-cruz-mayer-holliday?platform=amp
Mayer #3 (up from 7)
Roman Anthony #49
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1661354747046002689
View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1661380227480670214
Too many ABs, he has graduated anywhere he was eligible, as has every player who has been on the MLB team all season so far.
Fangraphs' board is more fluid. They updated it about a week ago, but it includes some graduated players who have been in MLB all season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?filter=scoutgrade|f|FV|gt|50|50
Red Sox on the top 118 list...
Mayer #14 (up a few spots)
Casas #27
Bleis #39 (down like 20 spots...explanation here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-top-100-tweak-and-updated-rays-prospect-list/)
Rafaela #51
Yorke #111
https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board?filter=scoutgrade|f|FV|gt|50|50
Red Sox on the top 118 list...
Mayer #14 (up a few spots)
Casas #27
Bleis #39 (down like 20 spots...explanation here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-top-100-tweak-and-updated-rays-prospect-list/)
Rafaela #51
Yorke #111
MLB does not include the graduated players. Their top 100, which I believe was updated a week ago includes...
Mayer #5
Bleis #75
Rafaela #84
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/
Mayer #5
Bleis #75
Rafaela #84
https://www.mlb.com/prospects/
Bleacher Report is not a big fan of the Sox system, dropping them from 19 to 21 in their rankings which I believe came out today.
Here's who they say our top 10 is:
In terms of BR's individual rankings, this was from 5/8:
#17 Mayer
#67 Rafaela
#81 Bleis
HM (101-150) Yorke
bleacherreport.com/articles/10075220-updated-mlb-top-100-prospect-list-1-month-into-2023-season
Here's who they say our top 10 is:
- Top 10 Prospects
1. SS Marcelo Mayer (Tier 1)
2. IF/OF Ceddanne Rafaela (Tier 1)
3. OF Miguel Bleis (Tier 1)
4. 2B Nick Yorke (Tier 2)
5. SS Mikey Romero (Tier 3)
6. OF Roman Anthony (Tier 3)
7. LHP Shane Drohan (Tier 3)
8. C Nathan Hickey (Tier 3)
9. 1B/3B Blaze Jordan (Tier 3)
10. LHP Dalton Rogers (Tier 3)
In terms of BR's individual rankings, this was from 5/8:
#17 Mayer
#67 Rafaela
#81 Bleis
HM (101-150) Yorke
bleacherreport.com/articles/10075220-updated-mlb-top-100-prospect-list-1-month-into-2023-season
The pitching within the system is a little scary right now. Drohan taking a leap helps, but the pen arms behind the Major League roster are pretty terrifying. It's why they are having to go out and make minor league moves for added arms.
Having a guy like Mayer really helps anchor your system, but it gets thin pretty quickly after that. Roman Anthony looks pretty special to this point which helps relieve some other disappointments but it ain't pretty.
- Rafaela can't really control at bats
- Yorke's defense is bad
- Romero hasn't played this year
- Hickey can't catch
- Blaze struggles with fastballs
Yeah, the system has little to nothing in the way of pitching prospects. I think it makes it really difficult to pull off trades of significance; and the struggles of the AAA guys are forcing them to hold on to Kluber and Pivetta.