Baseball America Top 100 ‘23: 5 Red Sox

[TrotNixonRing]

C-Note translation from FanGraphs chat:

D: What does ZIPS think of Cedanne Rafaela? He’s hit really well in AAA this year–has that moved the needle on his future? And what does it think of his OF defense, if anything?

12:11

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a risk. last batch run had him at .256/.290/.413 for 2024

Dan Szymborski: Because of the crappiness of the minor league data, ZiPS is only calling him a +4 defender in CF right now

 

[ZMart100]

That's Ezequiel Tovar of COL- currently .256/.291/.419 for a wRC+ of 75. It's harder to make up the value on defense in CF than at SS though.

 

[Seels]

I don't get why Bleis is so high everywhere. Bad year and injured. He shouldn't be on these lists, certainly not ahead of Rafaela.

 

[Fishy1]

I don't get why Bleis is so high everywhere. Bad year and injured. He shouldn't be on these lists, certainly not ahead of Rafaela.

Hype, projection, and Pedigree go a long way in prospectville, even if they shouldn't.

 

[JimD]

I don't get why Bleis is so high everywhere. Bad year and injured. He shouldn't be on these lists, certainly not ahead of Rafaela.

He was the best positional prospect last year in the FCL at age 18 and has All-Star potential. He'll still only be 20 at the start of next season. Nobody is saying he's a lock to make the major leagues, but he offers a lot to be legitimately excited about. One lost season due to injury shouldn't be seen as an indication that he's been overhyped or something.

 

[Fishercat]

I think a 90wRC+ is absolutely a real possibility, and I agree, with his defense that's a darn good ball player.

The issue is that his inzone whiff rate has rivaled Javy Baez this year. I don't have those numbers handy, but it's really had to be an above average offensive player doing that. A lot of this issue is masked because like Baez, he's very talented guy, who swings a lot. It's not that common for him to whiff 3 times in a row against AAA pitching. Once he faces major league pitching, that almost certainly changes.

The issue is that he makes a far bit of weak contact. The career BABIP only being .307, despite plus speed is kind of telling.

Why Rafeala is such an interesting prospect, is that I totally agree with you, I think he could be about 10% worse than league average offensively, and still be a 2-3 win player with the glove.

But it also feels like that would be a shame if that's all he ever becomes. He's clearly got sneaky power. If he could smooth out his game he could be an All Star.

It's a weird profile. Both high floor and high ceiling, but likelihood of him maxing out is probably pretty low. I think that is why you see people dropping him out of their top 100s (forgetting that an excellent defensive CF with versatility who doesn't kill you offensively is really valuable, too).

People can absolutely check me if I'm wrong on this...but this sounds a bit like Jackie Bradley Jr ten years ago with notably worse plate discipline but more useable speed and pop

2013 Jackie Bradley Jr - .265-.374-.469, 41-75 BB/K, 10 HR - 23 y/o at AAA, + defender, mid-20s to mid-30s in mid 2013 prospect rankings,
2023 Ceddane Rafaela - .303-.345-.520, 21-88 BB/K, 17 HR - 22 Y/O at AA and AAA, + defender, widely variable prospect ratings but generally lower half of the top-100

To your point is that JBJ's offensive value rapidly turned into depending on his plate discipline (which settled into a K heavy guy who could still walk) and the emergence of power. So even as he hit like .230, he walked often enough and had enough good contact that the offensive value was enough to justify playing his glove. That 21/88 split in a great year for Ceddanne is legitimate reason for concern as pitching is going to get a lot better really soon, and Ceddanne is going to be hindered if he's unable to put the ball in play at a decent clip. With that said, you're both also right that if he can give similar value to JBJ, which was a 2 WARish player floor with upside in a good offensive year, he's a player worth having and hoping for. But that line does exist and if he is constantly whiffing at the big level, it may not matter how fast or good on defense he is.

I think of another player who Ceddanne can definitely out-power but also had a ton of hype and has kind of settled into what I'd consider a different kind of cautionary tale

2013 (22 y/o at AAA) - .256-.308-.343, 38-102 BB/K, 6 HR, 75 SB , - 22 Y/O at AAA - + defender, prospect rankings were around #20 going into the year and around low-40s leaving the year

In the ML, he was a regular for most of his rookie contract deriving nearly all his value from his speed on the basepaths and defense in CF, but with an OBP around .300 and no supporting pop, and an average around .240ish. This guy was even faster but his inability to consistently make it on base really hindered the overall value which capped at an average if oddly average CF.

Spoiler: Mystery Comp

Billy Hamilton

Overall, I think there's legit reason to be concerned. The 20% K rate isn't terrible, but walking that little combined with that worries me a ton and the weak contact discussion seems to align with that. With that said, I do think that lists that are excluding him are doing a disservice. Unless he is a true AAAA guy and legitimately can't hit MLB pitching, he will be in the majors and will provide some value. One more fun comparison to bring this full circle

2014 (21 y/o at AAA) - .260-.323-.510, 34-130 BB/K, 23 HR, + defender in the infield, Top 10 prospect going into 2014 and was called up md-year. At his peak he was an all-star caliber, 6 WAR type guy, but he was hugely variable generally with that 2 WAR type floor mostly hindered by a terrible BB/K Rate. Well...if the Sox get OF Javy Baez I think they're pretty happy.

Now I'm sure there's a slew of guys in the minors with this profile who bust and all of these are different people, but I think it's illustrative both to temper expectations and understand the type of player he may be...but also to push a bit back on Top 100s that have him missing. It does explain though why different lists have widely variable opinions.

 

[walt in maryland]

He was the best positional prospect last year in the FCL at age 18 and has All-Star potential. He'll still only be 20 at the start of next season. Nobody is saying he's a lock to make the major leagues, but he offers a lot to be legitimately excited about. One lost season due to injury shouldn't be seen as an indication that he's been overhyped or something.

Extremely high ceiling and still very young

 

[Sin Duda]

People can absolutely check me if I'm wrong on this...but this sounds a bit like Jackie Bradley Jr ten years ago with notably worse plate discipline but more useable speed and pop

2013 Jackie Bradley Jr - .265-.374-.469, 41-75 BB/K, 10 HR - 23 y/o at AAA, + defender, mid-20s to mid-30s in mid 2013 prospect rankings,
2023 Ceddane Rafaela - .303-.345-.520, 21-88 BB/K, 17 HR - 22 Y/O at AA and AAA, + defender, widely variable prospect ratings but generally lower half of the top-100

To your point is that JBJ's offensive value rapidly turned into depending on his plate discipline (which settled into a K heavy guy who could still walk) and the emergence of power. So even as he hit like .230, he walked often enough and had enough good contact that the offensive value was enough to justify playing his glove. That 21/88 split in a great year for Ceddanne is legitimate reason for concern as pitching is going to get a lot better really soon, and Ceddanne is going to be hindered if he's unable to put the ball in play at a decent clip. With that said, you're both also right that if he can give similar value to JBJ, which was a 2 WARish player floor with upside in a good offensive year, he's a player worth having and hoping for. But that line does exist and if he is constantly whiffing at the big level, it may not matter how fast or good on defense he is.

I think of another player who Ceddanne can definitely out-power but also had a ton of hype and has kind of settled into what I'd consider a different kind of cautionary tale

2013 (22 y/o at AAA) - .256-.308-.343, 38-102 BB/K, 6 HR, 75 SB , - 22 Y/O at AAA - + defender, prospect rankings were around #20 going into the year and around low-40s leaving the year

In the ML, he was a regular for most of his rookie contract deriving nearly all his value from his speed on the basepaths and defense in CF, but with an OBP around .300 and no supporting pop, and an average around .240ish. This guy was even faster but his inability to consistently make it on base really hindered the overall value which capped at an average if oddly average CF.

Spoiler: Mystery Comp

Billy Hamilton

Overall, I think there's legit reason to be concerned. The 20% K rate isn't terrible, but walking that little combined with that worries me a ton and the weak contact discussion seems to align with that. With that said, I do think that lists that are excluding him are doing a disservice. Unless he is a true AAAA guy and legitimately can't hit MLB pitching, he will be in the majors and will provide some value. One more fun comparison to bring this full circle

2014 (21 y/o at AAA) - .260-.323-.510, 34-130 BB/K, 23 HR, + defender in the infield, Top 10 prospect going into 2014 and was called up md-year. At his peak he was an all-star caliber, 6 WAR type guy, but he was hugely variable generally with that 2 WAR type floor mostly hindered by a terrible BB/K Rate. Well...if the Sox get OF Javy Baez I think they're pretty happy.

Now I'm sure there's a slew of guys in the minors with this profile who bust and all of these are different people, but I think it's illustrative both to temper expectations and understand the type of player he may be...but also to push a bit back on Top 100s that have him missing. It does explain though why different lists have widely variable opinions.

Got the mystery comp! But I think guys who can hit HRs have a better chance of improving their eye because pictures won't be throwing them strikes in the zone nearly so often. The walks are there to be taken, now it's a matter of whether he has a discipline to do so. The game a week or two ago he had with four walks and a homer is hopefully an indication of his ability to take a walk.