April 21, 2024: Beat the Heat

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every single basketball game has a “i doubt player x will do y thing again” and we forget that games are aggregations of weird outcomes that in sum tend to point to the average case
There's a big difference, IMO, between saying 'I don't think Delon Wright will go 5 for 5 from 3-point range again' and saying 'I don't think Tyler Herro will go 4-for-11 and be held to 11 points again.'

Herro averaged 23.7 points in Miami's three regular-season games with Boston. Obviously, the stakes are higher in this series and the C's are ratcheting up their defense, but Herro, for all of his shortcomings at the other end of the court, is a big-time scorer.

I hope you're all right and he continues to shoot miserably. I'm not counting on it.
 

slamminsammya

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There's a big difference, IMO, between saying 'I don't think Delon Wright will go 5 for 5 from 3-point range again' and saying 'I don't think Tyler Herro will go 4-for-11 and be held to 11 points again.'

Herro averaged 23.7 points in Miami's three regular-season games with Boston. Obviously, the stakes are higher in this series and the C's are ratcheting up their defense, but Herro, for all of his shortcomings at the other end of the court, is a big-time scorer.

I hope you're all right and he continues to shoot miserably. I'm not counting on it.
i didn’t say he would. i’m just saying this is the time of year we collectively forget the central limit theorem
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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There's a big difference, IMO, between saying 'I don't think Delon Wright will go 5 for 5 from 3-point range again' and saying 'I don't think Tyler Herro will go 4-for-11 and be held to 11 points again.'

Herro averaged 23.7 points in Miami's three regular-season games with Boston. Obviously, the stakes are higher in this series and the C's are ratcheting up their defense, but Herro, for all of his shortcomings at the other end of the court, is a big-time scorer.

I hope you're all right and he continues to shoot miserably. I'm not counting on it.
Herro benefits quite a bit from having Butler out there. The issue for MIA is that Herro isn't going to generate enough offense own his own as the #1 option against Jrue and DW. He just isn't.

The Heat scored 35 points in the 4th and did not hit 95. Not sure where their points come from in the series.

Reach 105 in each game and move on.
Yeah, MIA will struggle to break 100 in any game. They just don't have anyone who can break down the defense and BOS isn't putting anyone out there who isn't a decent defender or better. By the 4Q, it looked to me that a few Heat players didn't want to shoot.
 

lars10

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There's a big difference, IMO, between saying 'I don't think Delon Wright will go 5 for 5 from 3-point range again' and saying 'I don't think Tyler Herro will go 4-for-11 and be held to 11 points again.'

Herro averaged 23.7 points in Miami's three regular-season games with Boston. Obviously, the stakes are higher in this series and the C's are ratcheting up their defense, but Herro, for all of his shortcomings at the other end of the court, is a big-time scorer.

I hope you're all right and he continues to shoot miserably. I'm not counting on it.
I think Herro as a number one scoring option vs number 2 with Butler on the floor is a pretty significant difference. In the regular season the Celts couldn't concentrate as much of their defense on Herro. Felt like today he wasn't getting almost any open shots. The defender that usually guards Butler or the coverages that are usually reserved for Butler can now be shifted onto him.

edit: WBCD and I had the same thought at the same time.
 

lars10

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Herro benefits quite a bit from having Butler out there. The issue for MIA is that Herro isn't going to generate enough offense own his own as the #1 option against Jrue and DW. He just isn't.


Yeah, MIA will struggle to break 100 in any game. They just don't have anyone who can break down the defense and BOS isn't putting anyone out there who isn't a decent defender or better. By the 4Q, it looked to me that a few Heat players didn't want to shoot.
Jaquez was an exception... he was pretty aggressive all game it felt.
 

lars10

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Yes, he was certainly aggressive with his shot but I feel like he doesn't have a ton in his bag at this stage of his career so while he'll get a few hustle baskets, he's defensible.
Definitely agree. He's going to be more of an issue in a few years... or maybe this is the player he'll be.. but right now he's definitely limited. But he is a good active body and takes it to the rim a lot.. also doesn't seem to lack for confidence, for better or worse. Jaylen needs to just stay in front of him and force him to shoot.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Jaquez was an exception... he was pretty aggressive all game it felt.
Yes, he was certainly aggressive with his shot but I feel like he doesn't have a ton in his bag at this stage of his career so while he'll get a few hustle baskets, he's defensible.

I instinctively like Jaquez as a player. He's that combination of hustle, defensive instincts, and 'willing to do a little bit of everything' that Boston fans appreciate in our rotation guys. It feels like his most likely NBA career trajectory is a slightly longer (and maybe somewhat better) Josh Richardson.

Along those lines: he's never been an on-the-ball instigator who takes defenders off the dribble and creates for himself or anyone else. He's always been an off-the-ball garbage man/short roll finisher in the circle, who shoots poorly on catch-and-shoot 3s even when he has time and the defenses sag off of him. In game 1, out of desperation, the Heat are asking him to create penetration (for himself and others) against some of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

Take a rookie, ask him to play a role he's never played at any level, in the playoffs, against a top 5 defense... I think he's going to have his moments. But it's going to be a rough series for him. As a very rough comp: it's taken Jaylen something like ~6 years to make good decisions without turning the ball over off dribble penetration. Even if Jaquez gets there, it's probably not going to be in the next two weeks.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I instinctively like Jaquez as a player. He's that combination of hustle, defensive instincts, and 'willing to do a little bit of everything' that Boston fans appreciate in our rotation guys. It feels like his most likely NBA career trajectory is a slightly longer (and maybe somewhat better) Josh Richardson.

Along those lines: he's never been an on-the-ball instigator who takes defenders off the dribble and creates for himself or anyone else. He's always been an off-the-ball garbage man/short roll finisher in the circle, who shoots poorly on catch-and-shoot 3s even when he has time and the defenses sag off of him. In game 1, out of desperation, the Heat are asking him to create penetration (for himself and others) against some of the best perimeter defenders in the league.

Take a rookie, ask him to play a role he's never played at any level, in the playoffs, against a top 5 defense... I think he's going to have his moments. But it's going to be a rough series for him. As a very rough comp: it's taken Jaylen something like ~6 years to make good decisions without turning the ball over off dribble penetration. Even if Jaquez gets there, it's probably not going to be in the next two weeks.
I like Jaquez too. He'd be an asset on any team but he's a rotation player. Josh Richardson is a good comp (more physical; better defender; less on offense); Jae Crowder (not as good a shooter); etc. How far he gets will depend solely on his jump shot.

They are definitely asking a lot out of him. At least he'll get the reps in a low-pressure situation.