ALCS gamethread Royals vs. O's

Who do you think will win?

  • O's

    Votes: 97 50.0%
  • Royals

    Votes: 97 50.0%

  • Total voters
    194

BornToRun

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Jun 4, 2011
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MakMan44 said:
I dunno, playing with the lead in an elimination game feels pretty big IMO. 
Still, he's obviously working with some nerves and Cain's on fire this postseason. If Pierce had made a decent throw, Gonzalez is looking at a scoreless first.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The 3-0 issue always seemed to me like it could use some further refinement and analysis, beyond just the suggestion that it's a once every 33 series phenomenon.
 
It seems to me there are a spectrum of situations where teams are down 3-0.  Often (usually), a team is down 3-0 because they are significantly inferior.  In those situations, the likelihood of coming back is very low.  
 
But sometimes, even between two evenly matched teams, one of them can get down 3-0.  In fact, in a series between two evenly matched teams, you would expect one or the other of the teams to lose the first three about 25 percent of the time.  Indeed, it can even happen in a non-negligible number of cases that a slightly better team will lose the first three.  
 
I think the 2004 ALCS was this latter kind of case.  That is, the 25 percent of the time, or so, where two teams are evenly matched but one just happens to have won the first three games.  Now, it's true, that team continues to have a significant advantage.  But it's not quite as bad as the 1/33 suggests.  The chance of a team evenly matched with its opponent winning four in a row is about 6.25 percent -- so, in this latter case it should happen about once every 16 times.  
 
I especially hate when a team down 3-0 wins game 4 and you continue to hear about how few teams have ever come back from 3-0 down, as though it still matters.
 
Anyway, when I started typing this drivel, my point was going to be that I thought this series fell in that latter category -- the category where two close to evenly matched teams has just happened to win 3 in a row, making this a series where the scary 1/33 stat doesn't seem as daunting.  As I've been typing, however, it seems clear that I have neglected to take into account the fact that team down 3-0 is susceptible to severe sphincter tightening, like Orioles, who appear to be playing very shitty.
 

MakMan44

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Aug 22, 2009
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BornToRun said:
Still, he's obviously working with some nerves and Cain's on fire this postseason. If Pierce had made a decent throw, Gonzalez is looking at a scoreless first.
Yeah, I'm not sure I make the same call but it worked out at least. 
 

BornToRun

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MakMan44 said:
Yeah, I'm not sure I make the same call but it worked out at least. 
It's really a testament to the ability of the Royals' players that they are this close to the Fall Classic with Yost calling the shots in the dugout.
 

InsideTheParker

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The Royals simply have a different philosophy from the anti-bunters, namely that putting up even one run early puts them at a great advantage. It has been working for them so far.
Actually, I thought Pearce's throw was not at all bad. Luck is still a factor in such situations.
 

MakMan44

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InsideTheParker said:
The Royals simply have a different philosophy from the anti-bunters, namely that putting up even one run early puts them at a great advantage. It has been working for them so far.
Actually, I thought Pearce's throw was not at all bad. Luck is still a factor in such situations.
I thought it was the light/dark factor honestly. 
 

MakMan44

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Remagellan said:
I don't know about using Shields for an inning or two.   If you lose are you still starting him tomorrow?  
I think Dave Cameron spoke about it, but they're sort of fucked regardless if this series doesn't end by game 5. Basically they're either going to have to start Duffy, who's probably hurt or Guthrie on short rest. Ending it today, by not letting Vargas getting a 3rd time through, is best. 
 
EDIT: Actually this isn't completely true. If it goes 7 games it is, but yeah, there's leeway there. 
 

Norm Siebern

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We live in a world where Ned Yost is but a few short innings away from managing the 2015 American League All Star team.
 
Marinate on that thought for a while.
 

Laser Show

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Nov 7, 2008
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Remagellan said:
I don't know about using Shields for an inning or two.   If you lose are you still starting him tomorrow?  
Referring to the same Cameron article that Mak mentioned, there's also this
 
If the Royals win Game 4 and Shields doesn't pitch, he'll be scheduled to start Game 1 of the World Series on 10 days' rest. Shields has never started a game on more than eight days rest in his career, and on the two occurrences he got that kind of break between starts, he combined to give up nine runs in 12 innings pitched. 
 
http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/kansas-city-royals-jason-vargas-james-shields-game-4-alcs-101514?cmpid=tsmtw:fscom:mlbonfox
 

MakMan44

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Aug 22, 2009
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Norm Siebern said:
We live in a world where Ned Yost is but a few short innings away from managing the 2015 American League All Star team.
 
Marinate on that thought for a while.
SO MANY BUNTS
 

Remagellan

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