Al Horford: he gawn

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,017
If this does happen, I'd love to see the Celtics cash in their picks to see if they can get #2 and draft Morant. I wonder how much Memphis values their own pick...
There is the Garland at 4 rumor but even if that falls through I don't expect Ainge to be adding 3 rookies to this team. He's going to be making SOME moves by draft night.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
9,041
Santa Monica, CA
Horford would have been a nice band aid for next year, but he's slowing down at a rapid rate. I'm not worried about this beyond 2019-20.

There are tons of talented bigs lurking in this draft. It would be nice if the Cs' can unearth one.

We're definitely in rebuild mode now. What a run of lousy luck, starting with Hayward's leg, then Sacramento playing it's way to #14, and the Lakers getting lucky/NBA rigging the lottery again.
 

Mloaf71

lurker
Jul 13, 2005
255
There's no way Memphis does this unless they add Brown or someone. Memphis would have to admit they'll still be bad in 2 years to make that pick anywhere close to the #2 pick.
Isn’t Morant also somewhat likely to be a bust? He came out of nowhere and his jump shot is still developing or questionable...
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
29,495
People are vastly underrating a core of Brown, Tatum, Hayward IMO. They clearly need to add pieces to it, but all 3 of those guys should improve year over year.
And some are vastly over-rating that core. Hayward may never be the player he was in Utah while Brown and Tatum each have a lot to work on to become better players. Brown is bad at FTs while Tatum can't finish at the rim and his shot selection was bad at times this year.

I tend to think that more people overrate these players than underrate them.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
7,822
And some are vastly over-rating that core. Hayward may never be the player he was in Utah while Brown and Tatum each have a lot to work on to become better players. Brown is bad at FTs while Tatum can't finish at the rim and his shot selection was bad at times this year.

I tend to think that more people overrate these players than underrate them.
Tatum does compare very favorably to past players his age, and those flaws are much, much more likely to improve than regress.

Jaylen Brown's FT % last season was higher than Westbrook's.

EDIT: I'm not understating the impact of Horford's loss, which I think impacts the development of these young players in bad ways. I just think we're 2-3 years from seeing those guys mature to the point either one can lead a team (and that is admittedly a best case scenario, but not a totally implausible one either).
 

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
34,954
Rotten Apple
Al is really hard to replace. He is slowing down but especially in the playoffs he was their most reliable player against elite competition. Like DBH mentioned above, the rest of the core is still somewhat un-tested in their own right. No such issues with Al. This is a hard rebuild for Danny.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
3,247
And some are vastly over-rating that core. Hayward may never be the player he was in Utah while Brown and Tatum each have a lot to work on to become better players. Brown is bad at FTs while Tatum can't finish at the rim and his shot selection was bad at times this year.

I tend to think that more people overrate these players than underrate them.
Plus, I can't think of a better player in the league to have around to help develop your young players than Al Horford.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
9,408
Waltham, MA
I think making the ECF without Kyrie was a blow to his ego, causing him to overcompensate this season, causing the friction. Kyrie likely felt he had to reestablish his alpha status.
I wouldn't be surprised. I don't know if you guys remember, but there were rumors of this exact thing happening during the ECF last year, although I dismissed it as silly at the time. In hindsight, it very well could have led to the friction with the young kids this year.

In any case, that had little to do with Hayward.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
3,247
I'm still holding out hope that there's just a misunderstanding of Bulpett being told this "his representation has ceased discussions with the Celts on a new contract" not meaning they're not talking because he''s signing somewhere else, but they're not talking because the second he opted out they're not allowed to talk until free agency starts.

Dare to dream!
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
9,408
Waltham, MA
I'm guilty of this too, but that ECF appearance was a mirage and Celtics fans bring it up too much. The east was trash in 2017 and 2018.

The east really improved last year. Toronto added Kawhi, Green, and Gasol. Philly added Butler and Harris. The Bucks hired a real coach.
Not to single you out, but I'm not sure why people have to keep saying this. Yes, the eastern conference was obviously weaker last year, and I've seen nobody argue that that team would have taken down the Bucks and Raptors this postseason. But the team was still damn impressive. A deep playoff run is a deep playoff run when you have a young team like that.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
22,018
It's certainly conceivable that after Kyrexit and perhaps also after they assessed trade options they were fine with him leaving and cut their offer today---that would fit wtih the odd reporting change during the day.

Wonder if they have a plan for the money...this has to be getting to the less likely of the many scenarios they modeled out.
 

128

lurker
May 4, 2019
73
The best part of this was watching Woj on SportsCenter. He had a segment saying that Horford opting out was good for Boston, as he was likely to sign a team friendly deal for 3-4 years that would give them cap relief.

About 10-15 minutes later, they showed his tweet saying Horford was prepared to find a deal elsewhere.
Pretty sure Bulpett broke that story, but Woj didn't bother to credit him in his follow-up confirmation tweet.
 

SemperFidelisSox

suzyn
SoSH Member
May 25, 2008
18,321
Boston, MA
Ainge has left so much of the Celtics future up to faith. Faith in poor performances from other teams, faith in ping pong balls, faith in free agents desires to play in Boston. Too much gambling, not enough good old fashioned team building. He’s had a hundred balls in the air the last few years and now he’s left with his dick in his hand and a .500 team. Maybe it’s time to let another GM handle this rebuild,
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
9,041
Santa Monica, CA
It's certainly conceivable that after Kyrexit and perhaps also after they assessed trade options they were fine with him leaving and cut their offer today---that would fit wtih the odd reporting change during the day.

Wonder if they have a plan for the money...this has to be getting to the less likely of the many scenarios they modeled out.
Does this really even open up more money than they would have had with exceptions if they stayed over the cap?

I can't keep track, but I thought that even with Al leaving they're still not that far under.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
9,041
Santa Monica, CA
Ainge has left so much of the Celtics future up to faith. Faith in poor performances from other teams, faith in ping pong balls, faith in free agents desires to play in Boston. Too much gambling, not enough good old fashioned team building. He’s had a hundred balls in the air the last few years and now he’s left with his dick in his hand and a .500 team. Maybe it’s time to let another GM handle this rebuild,
What part of team building in the NBA isn't a gamble? The draft is the biggest gamble of them all.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
3,247
Ainge has left so much of the Celtics future up to faith. Faith in poor performances from other teams, faith in ping pong balls, faith in free agents desires to play in Boston. Too much gambling, not enough good old fashioned team building. He’s had a hundred balls in the air the last few years and now he’s left with his dick in his hand and a .500 team. Maybe it’s time to let another GM handle this rebuild,
Good grief man
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
18,017
Isn’t Morant also somewhat likely to be a bust? He came out of nowhere and his jump shot is still developing or questionable...
What would you base this on? Morant has all the necessary physical skills to be a top flight PG at the next level and is already an accomplished playmaker/passer. He's shown the ability and most importantly, the drive to take over games. This kid competes and made a tremendous leap last season from the previous one.....this is a great sign in that he is ascending. The only question I see is the same one that most 19-year olds have in that they are usually inconsistent 3-point shooters. Being that Morant is an above average FT shooter who also made a leap in 3-pt% while possessing good mechanics and excellent range. I don't see shooting the ball being a problem for him down the road. I expect him to be really really good at the next level but of course weird things can and do happen with young players.....I just don't see any red flags from this kid.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
7,822
Ainge has left so much of the Celtics future up to faith. Faith in poor performances from other teams, faith in ping pong balls, faith in free agents desires to play in Boston. Too much gambling, not enough good old fashioned team building. He’s had a hundred balls in the air the last few years and now he’s left with his dick in his hand and a .500 team. Maybe it’s time to let another GM handle this rebuild,
What Ainge did is called team building in the NBA. It's always a very uncertain path.

He drafted some high upside youngsters in Tatum and Brown with the high draft picks he got by unloading Pierce and Garnett. He traded for a perennial All Star, giving up a draft pick and a bunch of flotsam and jetsam. He added two max free agents. And he stockpiled some future draft picks.

One guy got hurt; another got hurt feelings; and we still really don't know what's happening here with Horford. And the Kings were better than anyone could reasonably expect or predict.

Philly tanked for years. The Sixers haven't gotten past the second round of the playoffs, and may lose one of their star players this offseason anyway. And the team that just won the title did it by trading for a star player that may leave anyway.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,755
Santa Monica
I hope people know what they are getting with next year's Celtics team. They are in a tough spot with the cap and with Kyrie and Horford out of the fold, they lose their best offensive player and one of their best defenders. All else equal, this team will be lucky to finish much above .500.
agreed. If Al leaves this team is in for a multi-year rebuild.

mea culpa here I definitely didn't see this at all, letting him walk is a real head-scratcher.
 

Reardons Beard

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 3, 2005
3,207
Boston, MA
I think Al leaving could accelerate what is looking like a rebuild. Hurts more that they didn't get anything for him, but three or four years of mid thirties Al ain't bringing you to the promised land.
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
7,822
Seems like Horford expected a max or near-max deal. Not sure why, as the conventional wisdom was that the Celtics would be able to save some salary by offering him a longer term at a lower AAV. But maybe with all the cap space and the injuries and non-availability of other premium free agents, Horford feels he can get both term and max from another team. Or he is going into ring-chasing mode.

Can't blame him either way, but it may not have been as simple as the Celtics simply not "letting him walk".
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,253
Saint Paul, MN
mea culpa here I definitely didn't see this at all, letting him walk is a real head-scratcher.
Maybe we should wait to hear what the deal is before we assume that Ainge allowed him to walk. If some team throws a 4 year max at him, would you call that letting him walk? If Al comes out and says he wants to go somewhere else for X,Y, Z reasons, would you call that letting him walk?

There are myriad reasons why Al Horford might not be on this team next year. And yes, one of those could be that Ainge decided to let him walk.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,755
Santa Monica
Maybe we should wait to hear what the deal is before we assume that Ainge allowed him to walk. If some team throws a 4 year max at him, would you call that letting him walk? If Al comes out and says he wants to go somewhere else for X,Y, Z reasons, would you call that letting him walk?

There are myriad reasons why Al Horford might not be on this team next year. And yes, one of those could be that Ainge decided to let him walk.
poorly phased, should have just said " didn't see Al leaving"

figured Danny/Al's agent had already worked the framework out for a 3yr deal

if Al gets a 4yr MAX deal you congratulate him and wish him luck.
 

scottyno

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
4,952
Ainge has left so much of the Celtics future up to faith. Faith in poor performances from other teams, faith in ping pong balls, faith in free agents desires to play in Boston. Too much gambling, not enough good old fashioned team building. He’s had a hundred balls in the air the last few years and now he’s left with his dick in his hand and a .500 team. Maybe it’s time to let another GM handle this rebuild,
He built a team that 2 years ago were at worst co-favorites to win the east with a minimum 2 year window, while still maintaining a ton of young talent and future draft picks... then a guy broke his leg, but yeah ainge totally should have anticipated that
 

bigq

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
3,293
I hope people know what they are getting with next year's Celtics team. They are in a tough spot with the cap and with Kyrie and Horford out of the fold, they lose their best offensive player and one of their best defenders. All else equal, this team will be lucky to finish much above .500.
Bold prediction. Let’s see what shakes out. I thought you were against hot takes.
 

DannyDarwinism

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 7, 2007
3,911
What part of team building in the NBA isn't a gamble? The draft is the biggest gamble of them all.
#hinkieknew

Seriously, Ainge recognizes that ping-ponging your way into stars plus asset-building (also draft-related) and maintaining cap flexibility are the most important factors in his job. He’s missed opportunities to cash in, but he still has a decent stack.

This draft can’t come soon enough.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
29,495
Bold prediction. Let’s see what shakes out. I thought you were against hot takes.
I don't know if my observation - and it wasn't a prediction - was all that bold. I was very careful to use the phrases "all else equal" and "lucky to finish much above .500". In other words, I wasn't trying to say they would nor was I assuming that the roster is anywhere near finished. I trust Ainge will add some pieces and he may yet have some rabbits up his sleeve.

However his options are limited with the current cap situation and the outcome gets even more uncertain with a larger tail to the downside if they renounce everyone to free up space. In short, the Celtics will need to replace a starting PG and two back-up PGs as well as a starting four/five player. Their in-house solutions for those spots very limited so they are going to have to find solutions on the cheap unless Ainge can put together a trade. It should be noted that unlike recent years, Ainge is in a weaker negotiating position given all the headlines around the team so that may impact his ability to "win" a deal like he has over the past few seasons.

That said, if you consider my statement as a hot take, you are entirely right to call me on it. Its only fair.
 

bowiac

I've been living a lie.
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
12,345
New York, NY
I've got the current version of the Celtics as right around a .500 team. They won 49 games and just lost their two best players, so saying they may win 8 fewer games doesn't feel like a hot take to me.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
16,389
where I was last at
I will readily admit to knowing next to nothing about the NBA cap or real player contract value, but I find it close to amazing that one day the expectation is for Al to sign a 3 year-home discount type contract ~ 3/75 and then the next, he's a max contract guy (is that now about 4/160?).

If he can get the 4/160 (whatever) good for him. But the Celts are going to miss his abilities on both ends of the court, and his leadership and maturity and class (I hate that word) but Al seemed to have class in spades. He's going to be missed.
 

boca

lurker
Jul 31, 2006
200
I will readily admit to knowing next to nothing about the NBA cap or real player contract value, but I find it close to amazing that one day the expectation is for Al to sign a 3 year-home discount type contract ~ 3/75 and then the next, he's a max contract guy (is that now about 4/160?).

If he can get the 4/160 (whatever) good for him. But the Celts are going to miss his abilities on both ends of the court, and his leadership and maturity and class (I hate that word) but Al seemed to have class in spades. He's going to be missed.
I haven't see 4/160 reported anywhere. The figure being reported is 4/100
 

bosox79

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
10,338
I've got the current version of the Celtics as right around a .500 team. They won 49 games and just lost their two best players, so saying they may win 8 fewer games doesn't feel like a hot take to me.
Same, not a hot take at all.
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
2,253
Saint Paul, MN
I've got the current version of the Celtics as right around a .500 team. They won 49 games and just lost their two best players, so saying they may win 8 fewer games doesn't feel like a hot take to me.
Not a hot take, but there are still draft picks and free agents to be signed so the current version likely looks nothing like the 2019/2020 team
 

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,284
You never want to lose a star player for nothing, especially one as good and as popular as Al, but this seems like a good thing for both sides. Horford is 33 and about to sign his last long-term contract. He should be looking for that last payday as well as a chance to win a championship. Given the ways things have played out this offseason that title probably wasn't coming in Boston. I can't begrudge a guy that wants to maximize that opportunity before his career is over. For Boston, it makes them worse next year, but it could be a blessing in disguise by not having to pay out in years 3 and 4. Now they can pivot and rebuild around Brown, Tatum and Smart. That extra cap space could be valuable for moves to put that next contender together.
 

Gunfighter 09

wants to be caribou ken
Staff member
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2005
7,180
KPWT
Ainge made a gazillion good moves and mostly got unlucky in every possible way over the past year+.

I will readily admit to knowing next to nothing about the NBA cap or real player contract value, but I find it close to amazing that one day the expectation is for Al to sign a 3 year-home discount type contract ~ 3/75 and then the next, he's a max contract guy (is that now about 4/160?).

If he can get the 4/160 (whatever) good for him. But the Celts are going to miss his abilities on both ends of the court, and his leadership and maturity and class (I hate that word) but Al seemed to have class in spades. He's going to be missed.

Ainge isn't unlucky here, this is just a GM whiff. He either misread Horford's market or missed the opportunity to maximize the value of the Horford asset by failing to recognize that Horford, like Kyrie, wasn't staying in Boston. Either way, that is on the GM.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
14,779
Ainge isn't unlucky here, this is just a GM whiff. He either misread Horford's market or missed the opportunity to maximize the value of the Horford asset by failing to recognize that Horford, like Kyrie, wasn't staying in Boston. Either way, that is on the GM.
what exactly was he supposed to do? How was he maximizing value for Horford? Trade him last February (which would have been insane)?
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
16,389
where I was last at
I haven't see 4/160 reported anywhere. The figure being reported is 4/100
I was working off a 4 year "max" contract that I read Al could get either in SoSH threads or elsewhere. if the cost of keeping Al is one (1) additional year at $25 million, from the 3/75, it may be worth it from an organiizational POV and be a little more agressive in sigaling interest.
 

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,284
Ainge has left so much of the Celtics future up to faith. Faith in poor performances from other teams, faith in ping pong balls, faith in free agents desires to play in Boston. Too much gambling, not enough good old fashioned team building. He’s had a hundred balls in the air the last few years and now he’s left with his dick in his hand and a .500 team. Maybe it’s time to let another GM handle this rebuild,
This is what team-building looks like in the NBA. It's hard, and it's erratic, and it's non-linear. You need great moves AND great luck. Ainge made smart trades, drafted well, managed his cap and nailed free agency from 2012-2018. He also got help from extreme good luck: Brooklyn cratering after trading all their picks; Fultz falling apart after getting traded for Tatum; IT's health going after the Kryie trade; and two prime superstars jumping from great teams to Boston. Now the pendulum has swung the other way and they've been on the wrong side of luck. Kyrie wasn't a good fit. Hayward got hurt. Horford decided to chase a title elsewhere. This stuff happens. They still have Tatum, Brown, three first round picks, the future Memphis pick and cap space. If Ainge is still good at his job he'll move on to new plan to build a contender. You don't throw out the baby with the bathwater.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
16,389
where I was last at
Ainge isn't unlucky here, this is just a GM whiff. He either misread Horford's market or missed the opportunity to maximize the value of the Horford asset by failing to recognize that Horford, like Kyrie, wasn't staying in Boston. Either way, that is on the GM.
So he whiffed when he signed Al to the contract with an opt out a few years ago?
Two days ago the story was Al was going to re-up with the Celts for some additional years and security at a market discount. Ainge has little to do with the slope of the FA price curve.

I'm sticking with Ainge made a lot of good moves at the time,and got bit on the ass by Lady Luck.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
35,355
Ainge isn't unlucky here, this is just a GM whiff. He either misread Horford's market or missed the opportunity to maximize the value of the Horford asset by failing to recognize that Horford, like Kyrie, wasn't staying in Boston. Either way, that is on the GM.
Speaking of hot takes.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
9,408
Waltham, MA
You never want to lose a star player for nothing, especially one as good and as popular as Al, but this seems like a good thing for both sides. Horford is 33 and about to sign his last long-term contract. He should be looking for that last payday as well as a chance to win a championship. Given the ways things have played out this offseason that title probably wasn't coming in Boston. I can't begrudge a guy that wants to maximize that opportunity before his career is over. For Boston, it makes them worse next year, but it could be a blessing in disguise by not having to pay out in years 3 and 4. Now they can pivot and rebuild around Brown, Tatum and Smart. That extra cap space could be valuable for moves to put that next contender together.
I just don't see how this can be construed as a good thing for the Celtics side. They can rebuild around Tatum and Brown while still having Horford on the team as a veteran clubhouse leader and quality all-around player. We're won't be bad enough to tank, so his presence won't hurt us from that perspective. And in a couple years, he'd be an expiring contract Danny could potentially use to get some additional help. We're losing that ability for nothing.

If Horford can get more money and/or a chance at a ring somewhere else, I don't begrudge him. He's earned that opportunity.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
7,837
Ainge isn't unlucky here, this is just a GM whiff. He either misread Horford's market or missed the opportunity to maximize the value of the Horford asset by failing to recognize that Horford, like Kyrie, wasn't staying in Boston. Either way, that is on the GM.
Gordon Hayward’s ankle exploding five minutes into his Celtics’ career is the definition of bad luck. Davis being recruited by LeBron while still in New Orleans was also bad luck that he couldn’t control.
 

The Mort Report

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 5, 2007
1,413
Winter Hill
Ainge isn't unlucky here, this is just a GM whiff. He either misread Horford's market or missed the opportunity to maximize the value of the Horford asset by failing to recognize that Horford, like Kyrie, wasn't staying in Boston. Either way, that is on the GM.
Angie didn't have a team option on Al, it was Al's option. Danny has no control over what Al did with it, and he couldn't trade him unless he opted into the contract. How should Danny have played this Horford situation then?
 

Gunfighter 09

wants to be caribou ken
Staff member
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2005
7,180
KPWT
what exactly was he supposed to do? How was he maximizing value for Horford? Trade him last February (which would have been insane)?
I don't see how anyone can defend his misread of Horford's market.

I agree that trading Horford in February would have been silly, but I hear there was another player on the market in February and was told for months that only Boston had enough pieces to get him. Perhaps adding one of the best 5 players in the league is something that should take more urgency in a GM's head if he realizes that his two best players can leave him with nothing this summer.

You guys should be pissed at Ainge for how he has fucked up the last 6-12 months, not blaming the player (which is much less prevalent here than in the wider conversation) or talking about how unlucky Ainge is.
 
Last edited:

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
36,628
Angie didn't have a team option on Al, it was Al's option. Danny has no control over what Al did with it, and he couldn't trade him unless he opted into the contract. How should Danny have played this Horford situation then?
Foreseen all of this and played it differently when he signed him.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
36,628
I don't see how anyone can defend his misread of Horford's market.
I'm confused---it was a player option. There was nothing Danny could do. He couldn't trade him in-season, and once season was over, whatever Danny thought of Al's market is irrelevant when Al can opt out. At that point, the market is what it is--Al was always going to opt out and see.