Al Horford: he gawn

amfox1

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Keith Smith @KeithSmithNBA 4m4 minutes ago
Obviously the immediate thought for Boston with AD off the board is Kyrie Irving is likely gone now. The next question is: Does Al Horford want to stay with a non-Kyrie squad? If so, is it for 1 year and $30M or does he opt out and re-sign for multiple years at a lower number?

Chris Forsberg @ChrisForsberg_ 8m8 minutes ago
Big question now, with AD off to LA and Kyrie’s return seeming unlikely, does Al Horford want to be back with what’s likely the 2018 playoff core? Does Al trust the potential if Celtics toss keys to the young guys?
 

nighthob

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With the West being wide open next year it might be easier to talk Al into picking up his option as part of a Houston trade, that would open up a lot of options for Boston (by creating a middling salary contract that can be used in trade).
 

lexrageorge

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Current roster assuming both Horford and Kyrie leaves and they renounce all their other free agents (Morris, Rozier, Theis, et al) and if they waive Ojeleye adds up to $70M. Added to that would be cap holds for their 3 first round draft picks (I'm guessing around $6M), plus another 2 holds for incomplete roster charges ($1.8M). There's probably a million or so not accounted for. At $80M, they would be about $29M under the cap, still shy for a max player.

I've seen other calculations that claim they would have between $18-23M of cap space, but I'm not sure of those assumptions. It could be the lower cap calculations assume the Celtics do not renounce their MLE.
 

Big John

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Unless they trade Hayward for expiring contracts, e.g. to Indiana, which has a ton of them (Bojan, Evans, Collison, etc.), or to Utah for Rubio and Favors. Why not? If Horford leaves, what's the point of keeping Hayward?
 

Cellar-Door

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Current roster assuming both Horford and Kyrie leaves and they renounce all their other free agents (Morris, Rozier, Theis, et al) and if they waive Ojeleye adds up to $70M. Added to that would be cap holds for their 3 first round draft picks (I'm guessing around $6M), plus another 2 holds for incomplete roster charges ($1.8M). There's probably a million or so not accounted for. At $80M, they would be about $29M under the cap, still shy for a max player.

I've seen other calculations that claim they would have between $18-23M of cap space, but I'm not sure of those assumptions. It could be the lower cap calculations assume the Celtics do not renounce their MLE.
If Kyrie, Morris and Al signed elsewhere we'd be at around 8-9M, lose Rozier we're at 16 or so. The Keith Smith link below is usually very good and kept up to date.
https://twitter.com/KeithSmithNBA/status/902247114377396224

Cut Semi, renounce everyone's rights.... you end up somewhere in the mid to upper 20s.

There is hypothetically a way to get to 38, but I think that required Baynes to decline his option, and a bunch of other crazy stuff (like trading away the picks).
 

luckiestman

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What free agents are out there to max? Do we need to be able to absorb Connelly’s full contract if we wanted to trade for him?

I don’t even know what is possible.

I don’t mind rolling with Smart Brown Tatum Hayward Horford as the 5
 

mcpickl

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Unless they trade Hayward for expiring contracts, e.g. to Indiana, which has a ton of them (Bojan, Evans, Collison, etc.), or to Utah for Rubio and Favors. Why not? If Horford leaves, what's the point of keeping Hayward?
Those aren't expiring contracts, they're expired contracts.

Not eligible to be traded.
 

luckiestman

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Unless they trade Hayward for expiring contracts, e.g. to Indiana, which has a ton of them (Bojan, Evans, Collison, etc.), or to Utah for Rubio and Favors. Why not? If Horford leaves, what's the point of keeping Hayward?

The point of keeping Hayward is that he might go back to being an All NBA caliber player with another offseason to rehab.
 

lars10

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I think the point is that if Hayward goes back to being All NBA, you'll wish you had kept Horford around.
I'm worried about Horford's decline. He started looking slow this year..though I think at the same time he really brought the team together and spread the floor well.
 

nighthob

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I think the point is that if Hayward goes back to being All NBA, you'll wish you had kept Horford around.
The problem is that Horford might prefer to play for a contender (and he’s already said as much). But the sudden Warrior implosion might make him amenable to a trade to Houston.
 

djbayko

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I'm worried about Horford's decline. He started looking slow this year..though I think at the same time he really brought the team together and spread the floor well.
Me too. But he's still helping out there. And if he doesn't re-sign with us, aren't we just losing him for nothing? Unless we're tanking, he makes sense from the perspective of "it's not my money".

The problem is that Horford might prefer to play for a contender (and he’s already said as much). But the sudden Warrior implosion might make him amenable to a trade to Houston.
At this point, a trade would be perfectly fine with me.
 

chilidawg

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I think the point is that if Hayward goes back to being All NBA, you'll wish you had kept Horford around.
Horford is a key to this team being competitive in the next couple of years, I really think he's a glue piece that's tough to replace. I hope we keep him around regardless of what Hayward looks like next year. And where's he going to go to be with a team that's more of a contender? Milwaukee to replace Lopez? Houston so he can watch Harden and Gordon chuck 3's? I think Al stays.
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm worried about Horford's decline. He started looking slow this year..though I think at the same time he really brought the team together and spread the floor well.
I can't imagine he's getting 4 or 5 years, you're probably looking at a 2 or 3 year deal, front loaded if it's the latter.
 

lexrageorge

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Horford did state he would like to return to Boston. And Boston may be in the best position to give him a 2-3 year, non-max deal.
 

TripleOT

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Give Al $45 million for two more years. He opts out, and gets a three year/$75 million new deal.
 

amfox1

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DrewDawg

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Horford doesn't strike me as a guy that would have been a fan of the Kyrie drama, and he if he likes Stevens and Boston, I think he'll be back.
 

amfox1

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https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2019/06/15/anthony-davis-dealt-lakers-celtics-look-youth-draft/ewRJbdIgKqyNBMO6OeNgWP/story.html

Celtics forward Al Horford, meanwhile, has until Tuesday to decide whether to opt in to the final year of his four-year deal, which will pay him $31 million next season. Horford has indicated in the past that his preference is to stay with the Celtics, but the 33-year-old has never won a title, and if he feels like Boston is shifting back to a youth movement, it is possible he might consider other teams. Horford could also decline his option for next season and sign a longer-term deal with the Celtics at a lower average salary.

A league source said on Saturday night that Horford was still figuring out his situation for next season.
 

TripleOT

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Maybe AL opts out and goes to the Nets with Kyrie. Sportstrac has them with $66.9 in practical cap space. Or the Nets do a deal with AL and picks for Russell, and he pairs with Kyrie and another FA in BK.
 

Captaincoop

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Maybe AL opts out and goes to the Nets with Kyrie. Sportstrac has them with $66.9 in practical cap space. Or the Nets do a deal with AL and picks for Russell, and he pairs with Kyrie and another FA in BK.
I could be wrong, but I didn't get the vibe that Al was loving the Kyrie experience.
 

DrewDawg

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I could be wrong, but I didn't get the vibe that Al was loving the Kyrie experience.
Yeah, I have a feeling that anyone signing to play with Kyrie is either his buddy or someone that hasn't played with him before.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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If Al leaves, Nik Vucevic should be the Celtics target. 28 years old, he's adjusted well to the modern game averaging 1.2 and 1.4 3PM per game the last two seasons. His defense is not as good as Al's but he can be used similarly in Steven's offense.

Celtics would have approximately $20mm in cap space with Al and Kyrie gone. He's a 2nd tier FA and should be getting roughly that much in his next contract.
 

Euclis20

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That'd be a nice get, but considering the number of teams with more space I wouldn't be surprised to see him snag a max deal. He's 28 and by most of the advanced metrics he was a top 10 player. His basic stats (21 ppg on 52% from the field and 36% from 3, 12 rpg, 4 apg, 1 bpg, 1 spg) are similarly impressive.

5th in PER
6th in win shares
3rd in box plus/minus
5th in RPM

He averaged career highs or close to it in most categories, for better or worse.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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That'd be a nice get, but considering the number of teams with more space I wouldn't be surprised to see him snag a max deal. He's 28 and by most of the advanced metrics he was a top 10 player. His basic stats (21 ppg on 52% from the field and 36% from 3, 12 rpg, 4 apg, 1 bpg, 1 spg) are similarly impressive.

5th in PER
6th in win shares
3rd in box plus/minus
5th in RPM

He averaged career highs or close to it in most categories, for better or worse.
I agree that he is a really good player. However, Steve Kyler, who I think is solid, believes Vooch is going to see a soft market (here & here) . Sacramento has stated they will not be in play. In terms of how any teams have room for a max salary as of now, it appears 9 team could in total with two having two max spots, so 11 max deals potentially out there.

Cap Space Link
 

BaseballJones

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Horford, barring some catastrophe, is staying in Boston, and that's a very good thing. He's an excellent basketball player and a team leader and a perfect fit here.
 

DrewDawg

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Horford, barring some catastrophe, is staying in Boston, and that's a very good thing. He's an excellent basketball player and a team leader and a perfect fit here.
How do you know he's a leader if he hasn't said he's a leader????
 

Cellar-Door

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woof. I thought this was still a really good team w/ Al, maybe even finals good depending on what they traded the picks for. Without Horford... not so much
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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woof. I thought this was still a really good team w/ Al, maybe even finals good depending on what they traded the picks for. Without Horford... not so much
Unless they really added offense via trades, the Celtics weren't likely to be a finals team even with Horford. It sucks if he is gone but I get it if its for a contender. He only has so much time left to get a shot at a ring.
 

Cellar-Door

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Unless they really added offense via trades, the Celtics weren't likely to be a finals team even with Horford. It sucks if he is gone but I get it if its for a contender. He only has so much time left to get a shot at a ring.
I'm not so sure, they'd have been probably no worse than the 3rd best defense in the league, and Tatum/Brown/Hayward brings a good amount of offense if Hayward is healthier. They'd basically be using the strategy they used 2 years ago when Kyrie went down. The East may be a mess next year. Plus they would have had the full exception to add one more scorer, and probably bring back 1 or both of Rozier/Morris. The offense would be worse, but maybe less than people think, but the defense would be much better