AFC playoff chase 2021

rodderick

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Agreed, but until they are knocked out I think you need to be fearful that they'll find a way to turn it on. They clearly have the talent.

That said, watching their offense, it reminds me of the Pats documentary when BB was saying his fear was teams would figure out how easy it is to stop their offense if they doubled Moss and took away Welker. Seems similar to what teams are doing with Kelce and Hill.
Thing is, the year BB said that (2009), the Patriots led the league in offensive DVOA. They never struggled on offense the way KC is struggling. Then Welker got hurt in a meaningless game in Houston and everything that could go wrong did against the Ravens.
 

johnmd20

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Falcons at 7 is really incredible. They were 1-3 and now are 4-4. That loss to no McCaffrey Carolina in Week 8 was pretty bad, tho.

And there are 11 teams in the AFC with records above 500. Which is definitely a stat.
 

SMU_Sox

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Falcons at 7 is really incredible. They were 1-3 and now are 4-4. That loss to no McCaffrey Carolina in Week 8 was pretty bad, tho.

And there are 11 teams in the AFC with records above 500. Which is definitely a stat.
Yeah I can’t figure out the AFC. I don’t think the Titans are as good as their record because I’m skeptical of their defense even though they do have some stars. The Bills have been inconsistent. You have 10-11 teams that all have some strengths but each team is struggling with 1-2 things. Reminds me a bit of what they discussed on the Athletic pod - great teams can win multiple ways. Who can do that of the AFC teams? I thought it was the Bills and it still might be but if their OL doesn’t shape up it won’t be pretty. Jacksonville was getting pressure with 4 all day. Can the Titans continue to be good minus Henry? Not sure there either. The only team I’m inherently skeptical of is the Steelers because their offense is truly horrific.
 

rodderick

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Yeah I can’t figure out the AFC. I don’t think the Titans are as good as their record because I’m skeptical of their defense even though they do have some stars. The Bills have been inconsistent. You have 10-11 teams that all have some strengths but each team is struggling with 1-2 things. Reminds me a bit of what they discussed on the Athletic pod - great teams can win multiple ways. Who can do that of the AFC teams? I thought it was the Bills and it still might be but if their OL doesn’t shape up it won’t be pretty. Jacksonville was getting pressure with 4 all day. Can the Titans continue to be good minus Henry? Not sure there either. The only team I’m inherently skeptical of is the Steelers because their offense is truly horrific.
The Titans offense was trash yesterday, if the defensive improvement is for real they can be dangerous, but if it isn't, meh. I like Tannehill, but I don't want the whole offense on his shoulders, even with those receivers.

I think the AFC playoffs will be a bloodbath and whoever comes out of it will likely get smoked by the Cardinals/Bucs/Rams/Packers.
 

Cellar-Door

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The Titans offense was trash yesterday, if the defensive improvement is for real they can be dangerous, but if it isn't, meh. I like Tannehill, but I don't want the whole offense on his shoulders, even with those receivers.

I think the AFC playoffs will be a bloodbath and whoever comes out of it will likely get smoked by the Cardinals/Bucs/Rams/Packers.
I think the TEN offense is fine, they played the Rams. The line is where I would worry, but most teams don't have Aaron Donald, so I think they'll be just fine.
 

Nator

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I heard Trent Dilfer on Rusillo's podcast a week or 2 ago talking about the Chiefs struggles, and he made an interesting point. Their offense doesn't execute boring plays very well. Like just line up and run between the tackles for 4 or 5 yards out of a 21 personnel. It seems like they are so busy trying to execute Crazy Andy's latest multi-layered route combos that they don't work on executing the mundane fundamentals of football well.
 

j-man

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the cap will get KC unless that start drafting better kelce is getting older and once hill loses his speed he will fall fast
 

SMU_Sox

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Mahomes faces a lot of two-high. Against 2 high you do a mix of running, shorter passes, and the occasional deep ball. It’s a defense that is designed to stop big plays. They’ve been an efficient team running the ball but Mahomes is still learning to take what the defense is giving him and even though they’ve been efficient running it they don’t run it as much as they probably should. They also could really use a third receiving option.
 

Cellar-Door

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Wish I could find it, but now I can't, someone was breaking down on twitter how Mahommes is really good at big plays, but lacks the patience (and at times touch) to just take the 5 yard easy pass. The touch thing was interesting to me, because one of the defenses of him has been how many of his picks are tipped this year, but some of those I have thought were bad passes that got tipped because he rifled hard to catch balls on fairly easy throws.
 

Old Fart Tree

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The Titans could easily end up 13-4:

At 7-2 they have Houston, Houston, Miami, Jacksonville still on the schedule. Do you think they can then squeeze two wins out of games vs. NO, Pitt, NE and SF? I'd say it is not crazy to think they can.
Without Henry I'd bet against it, but sure, anything's possible. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

j-man

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1 Tenn 8-2 i mean at this point they seem like a lock for 13-14 W
2 Balt 6-3 shake spot here shouild lose 3 more games
3 Buff/ne this will come down to the 2 NE/buff games Buff 6-3 NE 6-4
4 Kc yuck they look like 11-6 or so 5-4
5 ne/buff see 3
6 pitt 5-3-1 u tie the lions u miss the playoffs lol
7 LAC 5-4 up/down like most charger teams
8 LV are in deep dog doo 5-3 but very tough sch
9 ciny 5-4 like i keep saying a year away
10 indy 5-5 with vegas ciny pitt tough sch they can grab a spot
11 cle 5-5 they look like a 9-win team
12 den they look like a 8-win team 5-5
13 mia they will ruin a season just who will it be 3-7
14 jax played much better the last 2 weeks 2-7
15 nyj they can trade mike withe for more picks jets 2023 afc east champs ? 2-7
16 hou 1-8 call me in 2024
 

nattysez

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I find it REALLY hard to believe that PIT is a playoff team, but LV has no defense and both Cincy and Indy are completely unpredictable, so PIT is as good a guess as any.

Worth noting: the Pats' schedule isn't a cakewalk. Wins v the Falcons and Jags get the Pats to 9 wins, so they need 1-2 wins out of: home and away against BUF, Titans at home and Colts on the road. A lifetime of experience tells me that needing a win in Miami in Week 18 would be a serious problem, so they've got to avoid that at all costs.
 
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wilked

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To the above...

Does a record of 1-3 vs (Titans, Bills, Colts, Bills) still get them in the playoffs?
 

cshea

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It's too early to really know, way too much football left. If they went 1-3 in the games you mention, that means their ceiling is 10-7 by sweeping the 3 other remaining games against the Falcons, Jaguars and Dolphins. I *think* that'd probably be good. They'd have head to head tiebreakers over Cleveland and LAC (maybe Indy if that was the other win), and an 8-4 conference record which would be useful in tiebreak scenarios.
 

BaseballJones

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Right now here are NE’s rankings in the NFL:

Offense: #7 points, #15 yards
Defense: #2 points, #6 yards
Point diff: #3

I mean... they’re pretty good and thankfully trending in the right direction.
 

cshea

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The AFC East likely comes down to the two h2h games between the Pats and Bills. Bills still have trips to New Orleans and Tampa as their toughest non-Patriots games left.

On the wild card front, the North and West are the main competition. Basically all 4 teams in each division are between 6-3 and 5-5. The North and West happen to play each other, so on top of a all the remaing divisional H2H for everyone, there are a ton of north vs. west games left. It's going to be a bloodbath, one that will likely benefit New England. Indy is the only team outside of the North or West that's still in it, and they've got @ Buffalo and Tampa up next and the Pats could take care of them with the h2h game in December.
 

Nator

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Pats-Titans was NOT flexed and will remain at 1pm
I was surprised at first, but there don't seem to be a lot of compelling 1PM games that week, so maybe that is why they'll keep it there.

It is already a light Sunday with 3 Thanksgiving games, plus Rams vs Packers for the 4:25 game. It will be the 1pm game that most of the country will get.

I still think it would grab better numbers than Browns V Ravens, but what do I know? I am not a TV executive.
 

loshjott

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I was surprised at first, but there don't seem to be a lot of compelling 1PM games that week, so maybe that is why they'll keep it there.

It is already a light Sunday with 3 Thanksgiving games, plus Rams vs Packers for the 4:25 game. It will be the 1pm game that most of the country will get.

I still think it would grab better numbers than Browns V Ravens, but what do I know? I am not a TV executive.
If you were a CBS executive you'd want to keep the game as-is, and they do have veto rights over a limited number of games.
 

Cellar-Door

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Highly unlikely but the Patriots could end the week as the 2 seed.
Would need:
BUF loss to IND
BAL (possibly without Lamar) loss to CHI
 

tims4wins

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Highly unlikely but the Patriots could end the week as the 2 seed.
Would need:
BUF loss to IND
BAL (possibly without Lamar) loss to CHI
If this happens, and the Titans lose to the Texans (obviously won't happen), and the Pats beat the Titans next weekend... HELLO ONE SEED
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I think Buffalo is really the biggest obstacle. I'm pretty confident that Baltimore will lose a couple more games and that TEN will lose a few, including likely to us.

Because of the Miami loss (and the tiebreaker implications) we probably need to sweep Buffalo to win the division, which sucks.
 

tims4wins

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I think Buffalo is really the biggest obstacle. I'm pretty confident that Baltimore will lose a couple more games and that TEN will lose a few, including likely to us.

Because of the Miami loss (and the tiebreaker implications) we probably need to sweep Buffalo to win the division, which sucks.
Assume we split with Buffalo. Here are their remaining games:
vs IND
@ NO
@ TB
vs CAR
vs ATL
vs NYJ

I think they get to 11-6 with that schedule, with a chance of 12-5. Either way they are likely to win the division due to the Pats loss to Miami. I think it would take the Pats going 12-5 while the Bills only get to 11-6 to realistically win the division, unless the Pats find a way to sweep them
 

RedOctober3829

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My hope is that they go 2-2 in their next 4 to get to 9-6 and with Jax and Miami left they should get to 11 wins. 3-1 or 4-0 would be awesome, but I'm realistically hoping for a split with Buffalo and a split of the Tennessee and Indy games.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Assume we split with Buffalo. Here are their remaining games:
vs IND
@ NO
@ TB
vs CAR
vs ATL
vs NYJ

I think they get to 11-6 with that schedule, with a chance of 12-5. Either way they are likely to win the division due to the Pats loss to Miami. I think it would take the Pats going 12-5 while the Bills only get to 11-6 to realistically win the division, unless the Pats find a way to sweep them
Yeah, I think that's right. If we split with them we need to win out to have a chance, and even then it might not be enough.

I'm pretty intrigued by the game against IND. Other than that game against the Chiefs, when KC was kind of at their low point of the season, Buffalo really hasn't beaten anybody good. The other teams they've beaten have a combined record of 11-35 (counting MIA twice).
 

RedOctober3829

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Absolutely, if CBS can’t block it.
Would be nice if they got it to SNF for the day after Christmas. Dallas is a huge TV draw, so that's why I question it. But if Pats and Bills are within a game or tied, that's a huge draw. The 4:25 CBS national doubleheader game is Pittsburgh at KC that day. Fox could get Cowboys/WFT and put that out to the rest of the country at 1:00 pm as the 1 pm FOX games that day are pretty bad(Lions/Falcons, Giants/Eagles, Rams/Vikings, Bucs/Panthers)
 

tims4wins

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Yeah, I think that's right. If we split with them we need to win out to have a chance, and even then it might not be enough.

I'm pretty intrigued by the game against IND. Other than that game against the Chiefs, when KC was kind of at their low point of the season, Buffalo really hasn't beaten anybody good. The other teams they've beaten have a combined record of 11-35 (counting MIA twice).
Plus they lost to Jacksonville. Given that context, any game is a potential loss for them. Flip side is they have only lost by 7, 3, and 3. But I agree with you, I think the Indy and NO games are potential losses for them. They aren't losing to Atlanta, Carolina, or the Jets at home in Dec/Jan.
 

wilked

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Bills are likely to be without their starting right tackle (Brown) and maybe key LB Tremaine Edmunds who is their best run stopper for Covid

Colts have a reasonable shot at an upset here
 

RIrooter09

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My hope is that they go 2-2 in their next 4 to get to 9-6 and with Jax and Miami left they should get to 11 wins. 3-1 or 4-0 would be awesome, but I'm realistically hoping for a split with Buffalo and a split of the Tennessee and Indy games.
Split Buffalo, beat TN, lose to Indy is what I'm predicting.
 

tims4wins

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BaseballJones

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Hard to believe the Pats right now are in first place and currently sit as the #3 seed in the AFC.