AFC playoff chase 2021

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,384
Arkansas
this was done here in 2020 and was fun

as of right now

updated odds

1 Balt 5-1 - when they play from ahead they are tough to beat 99% likely in
2 Buff 4-1 Dymanic off d is underrated 99% in
3 LAC 4-2 bad day aga balt but through 6 weeks the best in the west 75% in
4 Tenn 3-2 they are up/down but who is going to beat them in the south 85% in
5 Ciny 4-2 much improved over 2020 shouild be a lock for 9 wins 55% in
6 Vegas 4-2 great game today and was the better team but can they keep this intstene up over 12 weeks 55% in
7 KC 3-3 they should outscore most of their opp 75% in

8 Cle 3-3 lot of talent shouild be able to leapfrog ciny for a wild card spot 55% in
9 Den 3-3 only 2 AFC Wins as of now looks like a 6-win team 30%
10 pitt 2-3 my only q here is will they get 8 wins or 9 30%
11 NE 2-4 for ne to get in they need to go 8-3 over the last 11 with BUFF 2X CLE LAC TENN CAR not likely but who knowns 35 %

12 indy 2-4 they have to beat tenn to get in no wild card shot as of now 30%
13 NYJ 1-4 bye this week but getting better over the last 3 weeks playing for 2022 1%
14 hou 1-5 this will be a long rebuild need to trade watson and get a bidding war going between mia den vegas and Philly and take the best deal by nov 2 or march 22 0%
15 Jax 1-5 see hou but their off is better but need a overhaul on def 0%
16 mia 1-5 tua is not the guy they also need a 1 RB they have to go heavy on off for 2022 0%
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,224
Colts might win the South. Think 80% is too high for Titans.

Browns still over Cincy in that division for me.

I have:

Bills (BYE)
Ravens
Chargers
Colts

Browns
KC
Raiders/Bengals (toss up)
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,384
Arkansas
Colts might win the South. Think 80% is too high for Titans.

Browns still over Cincy in that division for me.

I have:

Bills (BYE)
Ravens
Chargers
Colts

Browns
KC
Raiders/Bengals (toss up)
i need to look at indy sch Tenn has the tiebreaker i know that
 

uk_sox_fan

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 11, 2006
1,230
London, England
For the Pats this season is all about the growth and maturation of Mac Jones. Turning some of these moral victories into actual ones would be fantastic as would pounding some of the lesser teams rather than squeaking by, but in the bigger picture I'm pleasantly surprised and excited by what the team has in their rookie QB and that has made the almost-certain fact that they'll miss the postseason again this year easier to bear.
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,384
Arkansas
i will update it

from ESPN
[TH][/TH]
Cincinnati Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders
Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
Los Angeles Chargers
Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers
New England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Indianapolis Colts
New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars
Miami Dolphins
Houston Texans


[TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]T[/TH] [TH]PCT[/TH] [TH]HOME[/TH] [TH]AWAY[/TH] [TH]DIV[/TH] [TH]CONF[/TH] [TH]PF[/TH] [TH]PA[/TH] [TH]DIFF[/TH] [TH]STRK[/TH]
5 2 0 .714 2-1 3-1 2-0 3-0 189 128 +61 W2
5 2 0 .714 3-1 2-1 1-1 4-1 180 166 +14 W2
5 2 0 .714 3-1 2-1 2-0 4-1 193 164 +29 W3
5 2 0 .714 3-1 2-1 0-1 4-2 187 164 +23 L1
4 2 0 .667 2-1 2-1 1-0 3-2 203 98 +105 L1
4 2 0 .667 2-1 2-1 2-0 3-1 148 150 -2 L1
4 3 0 .571 3-1 1-2 0-0 2-2 173 165 +8 W1
3 3 0 .500 2-2 1-1 0-1 2-2 117 132 -15 W2
3 4 0 .429 1-4 2-0 2-1 3-1 179 140 +39 W1
3 4 0 .429 1-2 2-2 0-1 1-4 188 203 -15 L1
3 4 0 .429 1-2 2-2 0-1 2-4 140 127 +13 L4
2 4 0 .333 1-2 1-2 1-1 2-2 139 131 +8 W1
1 5 0 .167 1-1 0-4 0-2 1-3 80 175 -95 L2
1 5 0 .167 1-3 0-2 0-2 1-4 116 172 -56 W1
1 6 0 .143 0-3 1-3 1-1 1-4 127 207 -80 L6
1 6 0 .143 1-2 0-4 1-1 1-4 97 203 -106 L6
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,384
Arkansas
that was a mess

1 Ciny 5-2 95% in playing very well
2 buff 4-2 95% in has a easy 3 weeks comeing up
3 Vegas 5-2 90% in fireing gruden might win this div for them
4 Tenn 5-2 95 % in smacked kc today
5 Balt 5-2 D Look bad today 80% in
6 LAC 4-2 are they the team aga Balt or Cle 75% in
7 Cle winning without baker chubb hunt proves how much death this team has 60 % 4-3

8 NE 3-4 should get to 9 but can they get to 10 50%
9 pitt 3-3 i have almost zero faith in this team 25 %
10 Den 3-4 yes they have lost 4 in a row but with 5 out of the next 7 at home shouild get to around 7-7 10%
11 KC 3-4 they are the 2000 st louis rams can win any game but also lose any game 15 %
12 Indy 2-4 they are winning right now if they hold on will update 10%

13 NYJ of the 1-win teams they are the best 1-5 0%
14 Jax 1-5 other than Lawrence needs a total rebuild 0%
15 mia 1-6 if they dont get watson they are sunk but if they do might only get to be a wild card type of team because buff is still better 0%
16 hou 1-6 other than tusill and cooks lacks big time talent 0% even bill couild not win more than 3 with this team
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,384
Arkansas
week 8
1 Tenn 6-2 right now they are the best but i dont think they can keep it up but we will see
2 Buff 5-2 maybe the most balared afc team so far
3 LV 5-2 if they keep this up maybe they shouild just keep this coach at least for 22
4 balt 5-2 up/down but with ciny loss today they are the best in the north
5 ciny 5-3 still a playoff team but a year away from being real good
6 NE 4-4 they have a shot at 10 wins if they get in can beat any 1st round opp
7 LAC 4-3 shouild be good here unlees denver somehow sweeps them

8 pitt 4-3 they have CHI and DET comeing up but after that sch is brual
9 Cle they have the talent but lack the mental 4-4
10 den 4-4 they are too inj to make a run for 21 but upgrade the O-Line in 22 and they will make the playoffs
11 KC no def no shot even if they get in will lose in round 1 3-4

12 indy 3-5 they are just too far back to make a run
13 nyj 2-5 watch out for them late 2022 or 2023
14 mia 1-7 if ne misses the playoffs week 1 will be why
15 jax 1-6 feel bad for lawrance should had pulled a eil
16 hou couild go 1-16
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
10,763
The Yay Area
I don't think so. Maybe the Titans stay hot and get to 13-4, even after losing Henry? I'm maybe starting to agree with (don't remember who) someone in the game thread; there aren't any real heavyweights in the AFC, just a bunch of variously flawed teams without any clear favorite.

The NFC looks like the superior conference at this point.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,224
I don't think so. Maybe the Titans stay hot and get to 13-4, even after losing Henry? I'm maybe starting to agree with (don't remember who) someone in the game thread; there aren't any real heavyweights in the AFC, just a bunch of variously flawed teams without any clear favorite.

The NFC looks like the superior conference at this point.

13-4 probably a no, I agree, 11-6 might be in play.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
51,850
New York City
I don't think so. Maybe the Titans stay hot and get to 13-4, even after losing Henry? I'm maybe starting to agree with (don't remember who) someone in the game thread; there aren't any real heavyweights in the AFC, just a bunch of variously flawed teams without any clear favorite.

The NFC looks like the superior conference at this point.
The Titans aren't going to finish 13-4 without Derrick Henry. 0% chance of that.

What are people smoking?
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,224
The Titans aren't going to finish 13-4 without Derrick Henry. 0% chance of that.

What are people smoking?

No one is smoking that, hombre. They have the best record and he is saying he doesn't think they get to 13-4.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
10,763
The Yay Area
I literally said "I don't think so" in response to luckiestman asking if anyone gets to 13-4, so I'm not smoking anything. If I had to pick ONE team to do it it would be the guys that get to play the Colts Jags and Texans a bunch of times, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
23,224
I literally said "I don't think so" in response to luckiestman asking if anyone gets to 13-4, so I'm not smoking anything. If I had to pick ONE team to do it it would be the guys that get to play the Colts Jags and Texans a bunch of times, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Colts are good. I really like the way Frank coaches. Ravens have best shot at 13-4 but I don't think they get there.
 

Old Fart Tree

the maven of meat
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 10, 2001
10,763
The Yay Area
They’re not bad, and Wentz is playing reasonably well. But they’re below .500 and they’re the second best team in that division is my point. Those teams have seven wins between them so you could MAYBE squint and say Tennessee could go what, 7-2 from here on out?

You could talk me into Baltimore, maybe, but that division is much tougher than the south.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
51,850
New York City
5-2 is on the table. As I said, I don't think they get there but I have to rank them as the favorite for the 1 seed at this point
Them or Buffalo. The Bills have the Jets twice, Atlanta, and Carolina to play. Not that they are guarantees, but certainly not tough games.

Patriots twice, too. Those games will certainly decide the AFC East.
 

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,384
Arkansas
1 Tenn looks like the most compete team in the afc but i still have douts about their qb 7-2
2 Bait very good team but in the playoffs need to throw better 6-2
3 buff 5-3 very bad loss most likey will cost them homefield
4 LAC right now the best afc west team but if denver takes care of biz at home they are in troble 5--3
5 Ne 5-4 on paper shouild be fav in every game from here on out ex aga Buff
6 LV 5-3 needed today game they have KC Ciny dal next 3
7 pitt 4-3 very likely to win the next 2 games after that who knows

8 KC 5-4 will lose at least 3 more games
9 Cle 5-4 can they get to 10
10 den 5-4 today win was HUGE but with 4 of the next 5 at home denver needs to be 9-5 or 8-6 after week 15 to have a shot
11 Ciny 5-4 they are in deep for this year but shouild be good in 22
12 Indy 4-5 colts have a shot but need help from tenn the most

13 NYJ 2-7 they will be good by 23 provied they draft better on def
14 jax 2-6 great win today can they build for 22
15 mia 2-7 other than week 1 which they were helped by a fum have looked off all year
16 Hou 1-8 on a path to 1-16
 
Last edited:

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
50,345
Damn - got us below LAC after we beat them on the road coming off their bye?
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
28,839
Hingham, MA
Tonight was supposed to be a loss for the Titans. With their schedule they could have inside track at the bye.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
24,450
Ravens lost DeShon Elliot for the season. He was a key piece for their defense. After a while injuries make a difference.

I'd be shocked if they went 5-2 over their last seven games, particularly since they go CLE / PIT / CLE while CLE has a bye instead. (BTW, there hasn't been a team that has played the same team in back-to-back games since 1991). I think BAL would be happy winning 4 out of those 7.
 

Nator

Member
SoSH Member
Damn, they just said the AFC is 5-1 in the inter conference games today, and it could be 7-1 if the Texans can keep beating on the Rams and Pittsburgh beats Chicago tomorrow.

Maybe the AFC doesn't have as many teams with 1 or 2 losses because they are beating each other's brains in against better in conference competition.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
36,897
i think NE is a super bowl darkhorse if they can avoid tenn in the playoffs
I agree Jeremy, even if they are a real longshot simply because that would be asking a lot of Mac. It speaks volumes to me that I can kind of talk myself into it.

I am hard pressed to think of any other AFC team that would relish a NE matchup. If the past playoff Patriots were facing a team like this year's squad, I would be very concerned.
 

WheresDewey

lurker
Nov 18, 2007
92
Taiwan
The Pats will have to clean up all the mistakes in order to go deep in the playoffs. You can beat the Panthers after making sloppy turnovers and offensive penalties, but you won't beat the Ravens or Bills.
 
Apr 24, 2019
899
Patriots making the playoffs seems like a real possibility, barring major injury. Wynn playing better would help. Oof.

Happy birthday, j-man! Hope it’s a good one.
 

5dice

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2001
636
Out of town
The Pats will have to clean up all the mistakes in order to go deep in the playoffs. You can beat the Panthers after making sloppy turnovers and offensive penalties, but you won't beat the Ravens or Bills.
Thanks Captain Obvious!
As a team that didn’t seem like a playoff team at all for awhile, things are looking up. Let’s play those same Bills that lost to Jax yesterday 2 times and see how those go first.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
46,178
Pats are 5th in the entire NFL in point differential. That's nuts.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
16,881
I can't really get over how bad the Chiefs look. This was the SB favorite, an unstoppable offense, the best QB in the league off to the greatest start to a career in NFL history. And they SUCK. They are lucky to be 5-4. And moreso, they are getting worse. Mahomes has completely regressed as the season has gone along. Earlier in the season the defense was awful but the offense was still piling up points, even if Mahomes looked shaky at times and it was clear they couldn't really run the ball. Now the offense has completely fallen apart and resembles the offense of a 4-5 win team and not one of the most unstoppable forces in modern NFL history.

The Chiefs have scored 36 points in the last three games. In that time span Mahomes is averaging 215 yards per game, completing 57% of his passes, thrown 2 Tds, thrown 2 picks, and fumbled three times. They caught a massive break avoiding Rodgers this week, otherwise they would be under .500. They only have one impressive win on their schedule; beating Cleveland in Week 1, and since then have only beaten mediocre teams (Washington, Philadelphia, Giants and Rodgers-less Green Bay).

They have a fairly difficult final schedule after beating up on NFC East teams. They have Broncos 2x, Raiders 2x, home for Cowboys and Steelers and then @Chargers and @Bengals. I just can't recall a team being such a heavy favorite and then falling apart without really being ravaged by injuries.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
6,864
I can't really get over how bad the Chiefs look. This was the SB favorite, an unstoppable offense, the best QB in the league off to the greatest start to a career in NFL history. And they SUCK. They are lucky to be 5-4. And moreso, they are getting worse. Mahomes has completely regressed as the season has gone along. Earlier in the season the defense was awful but the offense was still piling up points, even if Mahomes looked shaky at times and it was clear they couldn't really run the ball. Now the offense has completely fallen apart and resembles the offense of a 4-5 win team and not one of the most unstoppable forces in modern NFL history.

The Chiefs have scored 36 points in the last three games. In that time span Mahomes is averaging 215 yards per game, completing 57% of his passes, thrown 2 Tds, thrown 2 picks, and fumbled three times. They caught a massive break avoiding Rodgers this week, otherwise they would be under .500. They only have one impressive win on their schedule; beating Cleveland in Week 1, and since then have only beaten mediocre teams (Washington, Philadelphia, Giants and Rodgers-less Green Bay).

They have a fairly difficult final schedule after beating up on NFC East teams. They have Broncos 2x, Raiders 2x, home for Cowboys and Steelers and then @Chargers and @Bengals. I just can't recall a team being such a heavy favorite and then falling apart without really being ravaged by injuries.
Agreed, but until they are knocked out I think you need to be fearful that they'll find a way to turn it on. They clearly have the talent.

That said, watching their offense, it reminds me of the Pats documentary when BB was saying his fear was teams would figure out how easy it is to stop their offense if they doubled Moss and took away Welker. Seems similar to what teams are doing with Kelce and Hill.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
51,850
New York City
Most of that is the 2nd Jets game, differential of +41 (of our +60) would be 8th all by itself.
Of course, but that isn't how point differential works. It is a cumulative stat that doesn't take out your best score and your worst score. It uses all your scores.

If you take out the best win for most teams and it would cut into the differential in a huge way. Baltimore's PD is 26. If you take out the Charger game, they are negative 2.

Tennessee is +44. If you take out their best win, they are plus 20.

TB is +77. Take out their best win, and they are +42. The Saints are +46. Take out their best win, they are +11.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
23,631
Of course, but that isn't how point differential works. It is a cumulative stat that doesn't take out your best score and your worst score. It uses all your scores.

If you take out the best win for most teams and it would cut into the differential in a huge way. Baltimore's PD is 26. If you take out the Charger game, they are negative 2.

Tennessee is +44. If you take out their best win, they are plus 20.

TB is +77. Take out their best win, and they are +42. The Saints are +46. Take out their best win, they are +11.
Sure, but the point is, it's a huge outlier even by "best game" scenarios. The Patriots have a really good pt differential mostly because they got to play the Jets twice. We have beat up on bad teams, and not lost to good teams by that much.. which is nice, but Differential is a useless stat, particularly in half seasons where there is a major difference in SOS.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
51,850
New York City
Sure, but the point is, it's a huge outlier even by "best game" scenarios. The Patriots have a really good pt differential mostly because they got to play the Jets twice. We have beat up on bad teams, and not lost to good teams by that much.. which is nice, but Differential is a useless stat, particularly in half seasons where there is a major difference in SOS.
I genuinely do not think it's useless in the NFL, even with 8-9 game samples. It does mean something. Not everything, but something. It is a very good indication about how a team really is.

Point being, Baltimore is playing on the edge. This could come to bite them down the road.
 

wiffleballhero

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 28, 2009
3,425
In the simulacrum
The Titans could easily end up 13-4:

At 7-2 they have Houston, Houston, Miami, Jacksonville still on the schedule. Do you think they can then squeeze two wins out of games vs. NO, Pitt, NE and SF? I'd say it is not crazy to think they can.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
16,881
Agreed, but until they are knocked out I think you need to be fearful that they'll find a way to turn it on. They clearly have the talent.

That said, watching their offense, it reminds me of the Pats documentary when BB was saying his fear was teams would figure out how easy it is to stop their offense if they doubled Moss and took away Welker. Seems similar to what teams are doing with Kelce and Hill.
Yeah, that is what makes it so strange. They have a bad game and its whatever; you know next game Mahomes will throw for 5 TDs in the first half and that will be that. The fact that they seem to be getting worse is truly strange; it can't be that teams just figured out how to stop the offense. Reid has been way too successful as an offensive mind to allow that to happen so quickly, especially given the talent he has at QB.
 
Aug 9, 2015
124
Agreed, but until they are knocked out I think you need to be fearful that they'll find a way to turn it on. They clearly have the talent.

That said, watching their offense, it reminds me of the Pats documentary when BB was saying his fear was teams would figure out how easy it is to stop their offense if they doubled Moss and took away Welker. Seems similar to what teams are doing with Kelce and Hill.
I agree with this. They have time to figure things out. Mahomes looks out of sorts but I think that’s a function of Kelce reaching the end faster than anyone thought, and the coverages figuring out Hill. Could be the usual curve though, where the team that goes on a three/four year run has a down year before coming back. Big question for me is how long Reid stays around, given health and other considerations.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
46,178
Sure, but the point is, it's a huge outlier even by "best game" scenarios. The Patriots have a really good pt differential mostly because they got to play the Jets twice. We have beat up on bad teams, and not lost to good teams by that much.. which is nice, but Differential is a useless stat, particularly in half seasons where there is a major difference in SOS.
I didn't say it was meaningful. I said it was nuts. And it is.
 

ObstructedView

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2001
2,402
Maine
I agree with this. They have time to figure things out. Mahomes looks out of sorts but I think that’s a function of Kelce reaching the end faster than anyone thought, and the coverages figuring out Hill. Could be the usual curve though, where the team that goes on a three/four year run has a down year before coming back. Big question for me is how long Reid stays around, given health and other considerations.
I'm not an X-and-O expert, but just based on eyeballs it feels to me like Mahomes developed some bad habits when they were flying high - including some of the cute side-arm stuff and improv that makes announcers horny - and a general sense of arrogance/laziness crept into the offense overall. They don't have the offensive line or patience to sustain long drives, so if they don't hit a couple big plays they seem to stall or make a sloppy mistake. I also think there is something to the "usual curve" theory; even the most potent offenses have a hard time maintaining their edge in a league where teams make adjustments and build their rosters around stopping certain types of attacks.