AFC playoff chase 2021

[j-man]

this was done here in 2020 and was fun

as of right now

updated odds

1 Balt 5-1 - when they play from ahead they are tough to beat 99% likely in
2 Buff 4-1 Dymanic off d is underrated 99% in
3 LAC 4-2 bad day aga balt but through 6 weeks the best in the west 75% in
4 Tenn 3-2 they are up/down but who is going to beat them in the south 85% in
5 Ciny 4-2 much improved over 2020 shouild be a lock for 9 wins 55% in
6 Vegas 4-2 great game today and was the better team but can they keep this intstene up over 12 weeks 55% in
7 KC 3-3 they should outscore most of their opp 75% in

8 Cle 3-3 lot of talent shouild be able to leapfrog ciny for a wild card spot 55% in
9 Den 3-3 only 2 AFC Wins as of now looks like a 6-win team 30%
10 pitt 2-3 my only q here is will they get 8 wins or 9 30%
11 NE 2-4 for ne to get in they need to go 8-3 over the last 11 with BUFF 2X CLE LAC TENN CAR not likely but who knowns 35 %

12 indy 2-4 they have to beat tenn to get in no wild card shot as of now 30%
13 NYJ 1-4 bye this week but getting better over the last 3 weeks playing for 2022 1%
14 hou 1-5 this will be a long rebuild need to trade watson and get a bidding war going between mia den vegas and Philly and take the best deal by nov 2 or march 22 0%
15 Jax 1-5 see hou but their off is better but need a overhaul on def 0%
16 mia 1-5 tua is not the guy they also need a 1 RB they have to go heavy on off for 2022 0%

 

[luckiestman]

Colts might win the South. Think 80% is too high for Titans.

Browns still over Cincy in that division for me.

I have:

Bills (BYE)
Ravens
Chargers
Colts

Browns
KC
Raiders/Bengals (toss up)

 

[j-man]

Colts might win the South. Think 80% is too high for Titans.

Browns still over Cincy in that division for me.

I have:

Bills (BYE)
Ravens
Chargers
Colts

Browns
KC
Raiders/Bengals (toss up)

i need to look at indy sch Tenn has the tiebreaker i know that

 

[Nator]

The Miami loss may be the thing that really ends up hurting the Patriots once the music stops. They are abysmal.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

For the Pats this season is all about the growth and maturation of Mac Jones. Turning some of these moral victories into actual ones would be fantastic as would pounding some of the lesser teams rather than squeaking by, but in the bigger picture I'm pleasantly surprised and excited by what the team has in their rookie QB and that has made the almost-certain fact that they'll miss the postseason again this year easier to bear.

 

[54thMA]

The Miami loss may be the thing that really ends up hurting the Patriots once the music stops. They are abysmal.

It always seems to come down to losing to those assholes.

Never fails.

 

[tims4wins]

KC now has 4 AFC losses.

 

[j-man]

i will update it

from ESPN
[TH][/TH]

Cincinnati Bengals

Las Vegas Raiders

Tennessee Titans

Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills

Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland Browns

Pittsburgh Steelers

New England Patriots

Kansas City Chiefs

Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts

New York Jets

Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins

Houston Texans

[TH]W[/TH] [TH]L[/TH] [TH]T[/TH] [TH]PCT[/TH] [TH]HOME[/TH] [TH]AWAY[/TH] [TH]DIV[/TH] [TH]CONF[/TH] [TH]PF[/TH] [TH]PA[/TH] [TH]DIFF[/TH] [TH]STRK[/TH]

5	2	0	.714	2-1	3-1	2-0	3-0	189	128	+61	W2
5	2	0	.714	3-1	2-1	1-1	4-1	180	166	+14	W2
5	2	0	.714	3-1	2-1	2-0	4-1	193	164	+29	W3
5	2	0	.714	3-1	2-1	0-1	4-2	187	164	+23	L1
4	2	0	.667	2-1	2-1	1-0	3-2	203	98	+105	L1
4	2	0	.667	2-1	2-1	2-0	3-1	148	150	-2	L1
4	3	0	.571	3-1	1-2	0-0	2-2	173	165	+8	W1
3	3	0	.500	2-2	1-1	0-1	2-2	117	132	-15	W2
3	4	0	.429	1-4	2-0	2-1	3-1	179	140	+39	W1
3	4	0	.429	1-2	2-2	0-1	1-4	188	203	-15	L1
3	4	0	.429	1-2	2-2	0-1	2-4	140	127	+13	L4
2	4	0	.333	1-2	1-2	1-1	2-2	139	131	+8	W1
1	5	0	.167	1-1	0-4	0-2	1-3	80	175	-95	L2
1	5	0	.167	1-3	0-2	0-2	1-4	116	172	-56	W1
1	6	0	.143	0-3	1-3	1-1	1-4	127	207	-80	L6
1	6	0	.143	1-2	0-4	1-1	1-4	97	203	-106	L6

 

[j-man]

that was a mess

1 Ciny 5-2 95% in playing very well
2 buff 4-2 95% in has a easy 3 weeks comeing up
3 Vegas 5-2 90% in fireing gruden might win this div for them
4 Tenn 5-2 95 % in smacked kc today
5 Balt 5-2 D Look bad today 80% in
6 LAC 4-2 are they the team aga Balt or Cle 75% in
7 Cle winning without baker chubb hunt proves how much death this team has 60 % 4-3

8 NE 3-4 should get to 9 but can they get to 10 50%
9 pitt 3-3 i have almost zero faith in this team 25 %
10 Den 3-4 yes they have lost 4 in a row but with 5 out of the next 7 at home shouild get to around 7-7 10%
11 KC 3-4 they are the 2000 st louis rams can win any game but also lose any game 15 %
12 Indy 2-4 they are winning right now if they hold on will update 10%

13 NYJ of the 1-win teams they are the best 1-5 0%
14 Jax 1-5 other than Lawrence needs a total rebuild 0%
15 mia 1-6 if they dont get watson they are sunk but if they do might only get to be a wild card type of team because buff is still better 0%
16 hou 1-6 other than tusill and cooks lacks big time talent 0% even bill couild not win more than 3 with this team

 

[j-man]

week 8
1 Tenn 6-2 right now they are the best but i dont think they can keep it up but we will see
2 Buff 5-2 maybe the most balared afc team so far
3 LV 5-2 if they keep this up maybe they shouild just keep this coach at least for 22
4 balt 5-2 up/down but with ciny loss today they are the best in the north
5 ciny 5-3 still a playoff team but a year away from being real good
6 NE 4-4 they have a shot at 10 wins if they get in can beat any 1st round opp
7 LAC 4-3 shouild be good here unlees denver somehow sweeps them

8 pitt 4-3 they have CHI and DET comeing up but after that sch is brual
9 Cle they have the talent but lack the mental 4-4
10 den 4-4 they are too inj to make a run for 21 but upgrade the O-Line in 22 and they will make the playoffs
11 KC no def no shot even if they get in will lose in round 1 3-4

12 indy 3-5 they are just too far back to make a run
13 nyj 2-5 watch out for them late 2022 or 2023
14 mia 1-7 if ne misses the playoffs week 1 will be why
15 jax 1-6 feel bad for lawrance should had pulled a eil
16 hou couild go 1-16

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Quite a shakeup today

 

[luckiestman]

Quite a shakeup today

What record will get the bye? Seems like it could be a crazy tiebreaker. Does any team get to 13-4?

 

[luckiestman]

Wt

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I don't think so. Maybe the Titans stay hot and get to 13-4, even after losing Henry? I'm maybe starting to agree with (don't remember who) someone in the game thread; there aren't any real heavyweights in the AFC, just a bunch of variously flawed teams without any clear favorite.

The NFC looks like the superior conference at this point.

 

[luckiestman]

I don't think so. Maybe the Titans stay hot and get to 13-4, even after losing Henry? I'm maybe starting to agree with (don't remember who) someone in the game thread; there aren't any real heavyweights in the AFC, just a bunch of variously flawed teams without any clear favorite.

The NFC looks like the superior conference at this point.

13-4 probably a no, I agree, 11-6 might be in play.

 

[johnmd20]

I don't think so. Maybe the Titans stay hot and get to 13-4, even after losing Henry? I'm maybe starting to agree with (don't remember who) someone in the game thread; there aren't any real heavyweights in the AFC, just a bunch of variously flawed teams without any clear favorite.

The NFC looks like the superior conference at this point.

The Titans aren't going to finish 13-4 without Derrick Henry. 0% chance of that.

What are people smoking?

 

[luckiestman]

The Titans aren't going to finish 13-4 without Derrick Henry. 0% chance of that.

What are people smoking?

No one is smoking that, hombre. They have the best record and he is saying he doesn't think they get to 13-4.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

I literally said "I don't think so" in response to luckiestman asking if anyone gets to 13-4, so I'm not smoking anything. If I had to pick ONE team to do it it would be the guys that get to play the Colts Jags and Texans a bunch of times, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[luckiestman]

I literally said "I don't think so" in response to luckiestman asking if anyone gets to 13-4, so I'm not smoking anything. If I had to pick ONE team to do it it would be the guys that get to play the Colts Jags and Texans a bunch of times, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Colts are good. I really like the way Frank coaches. Ravens have best shot at 13-4 but I don't think they get there.

 

[johnmd20]

Colts are good. I really like the way Frank coaches. Ravens have best shot at 13-4 but I don't think they get there.

The Ravens are really squeaking out a lot of close wins, some of them miracles. Nobody in the AFC is dominant.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

They’re not bad, and Wentz is playing reasonably well. But they’re below .500 and they’re the second best team in that division is my point. Those teams have seven wins between them so you could MAYBE squint and say Tennessee could go what, 7-2 from here on out?

You could talk me into Baltimore, maybe, but that division is much tougher than the south.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

The Ravens are really squeaking out a lot of close wins, some of them miracles. Nobody in the AFC is dominant.

Steelers twice, Browns twice, Bengals, Packers, Rams.

Good luck to them.

 

[luckiestman]

Steelers twice, Browns twice, Bengals, Packers, Rams.

Good luck to them.

5-2 is on the table. As I said, I don't think they get there but I have to rank them as the favorite for the 1 seed at this point

 

[johnmd20]

5-2 is on the table. As I said, I don't think they get there but I have to rank them as the favorite for the 1 seed at this point

Them or Buffalo. The Bills have the Jets twice, Atlanta, and Carolina to play. Not that they are guarantees, but certainly not tough games.

Patriots twice, too. Those games will certainly decide the AFC East.

 

[j-man]

1 Tenn looks like the most compete team in the afc but i still have douts about their qb 7-2
2 Bait very good team but in the playoffs need to throw better 6-2
3 buff 5-3 very bad loss most likey will cost them homefield
4 LAC right now the best afc west team but if denver takes care of biz at home they are in troble 5--3
5 Ne 5-4 on paper shouild be fav in every game from here on out ex aga Buff
6 LV 5-3 needed today game they have KC Ciny dal next 3
7 pitt 4-3 very likely to win the next 2 games after that who knows

8 KC 5-4 will lose at least 3 more games
9 Cle 5-4 can they get to 10
10 den 5-4 today win was HUGE but with 4 of the next 5 at home denver needs to be 9-5 or 8-6 after week 15 to have a shot
11 Ciny 5-4 they are in deep for this year but shouild be good in 22
12 Indy 4-5 colts have a shot but need help from tenn the most

13 NYJ 2-7 they will be good by 23 provied they draft better on def
14 jax 2-6 great win today can they build for 22
15 mia 2-7 other than week 1 which they were helped by a fum have looked off all year
16 Hou 1-8 on a path to 1-16

 

[Marciano490]

Damn - got us below LAC after we beat them on the road coming off their bye?

 

[deanx0]

Damn - got us below LAC after we beat them on the road coming off their bye?

I think he's putting his possible AFC West champ in the 4 hole.

 

[tims4wins]

Tonight was supposed to be a loss for the Titans. With their schedule they could have inside track at the bye.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Ravens lost DeShon Elliot for the season. He was a key piece for their defense. After a while injuries make a difference.

I'd be shocked if they went 5-2 over their last seven games, particularly since they go CLE / PIT / CLE while CLE has a bye instead. (BTW, there hasn't been a team that has played the same team in back-to-back games since 1991). I think BAL would be happy winning 4 out of those 7.

 

[Nator]

Damn, they just said the AFC is 5-1 in the inter conference games today, and it could be 7-1 if the Texans can keep beating on the Rams and Pittsburgh beats Chicago tomorrow.

Maybe the AFC doesn't have as many teams with 1 or 2 losses because they are beating each other's brains in against better in conference competition.

 

[j-man]

Damn - got us below LAC after we beat them on the road coming off their bye?

i am going by playoff seeding if u do not win the east the best u can do is 5

 

[j-man]

Tonight was supposed to be a loss for the Titans. With their schedule they could have inside track at the bye.

true but can their qb win a big game in jan

i think NE is a super bowl darkhorse if they can avoid tenn in the playoffs

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

i think NE is a super bowl darkhorse if they can avoid tenn in the playoffs

I agree Jeremy, even if they are a real longshot simply because that would be asking a lot of Mac. It speaks volumes to me that I can kind of talk myself into it.

I am hard pressed to think of any other AFC team that would relish a NE matchup. If the past playoff Patriots were facing a team like this year's squad, I would be very concerned.

 

[WheresDewey]

The Pats will have to clean up all the mistakes in order to go deep in the playoffs. You can beat the Panthers after making sloppy turnovers and offensive penalties, but you won't beat the Ravens or Bills.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

Patriots making the playoffs seems like a real possibility, barring major injury. Wynn playing better would help. Oof.

Happy birthday, j-man! Hope it’s a good one.

 

[5dice]

The Pats will have to clean up all the mistakes in order to go deep in the playoffs. You can beat the Panthers after making sloppy turnovers and offensive penalties, but you won't beat the Ravens or Bills.

Thanks Captain Obvious!
As a team that didn’t seem like a playoff team at all for awhile, things are looking up. Let’s play those same Bills that lost to Jax yesterday 2 times and see how those go first.

 

[DJnVa]

Pats are 5th in the entire NFL in point differential. That's nuts.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Pats are 5th in the entire NFL in point differential. That's nuts.

Most of that is the 2nd Jets game, differential of +41 (of our +60) would be 8th all by itself.

 

[Kliq]

I can't really get over how bad the Chiefs look. This was the SB favorite, an unstoppable offense, the best QB in the league off to the greatest start to a career in NFL history. And they SUCK. They are lucky to be 5-4. And moreso, they are getting worse. Mahomes has completely regressed as the season has gone along. Earlier in the season the defense was awful but the offense was still piling up points, even if Mahomes looked shaky at times and it was clear they couldn't really run the ball. Now the offense has completely fallen apart and resembles the offense of a 4-5 win team and not one of the most unstoppable forces in modern NFL history.

The Chiefs have scored 36 points in the last three games. In that time span Mahomes is averaging 215 yards per game, completing 57% of his passes, thrown 2 Tds, thrown 2 picks, and fumbled three times. They caught a massive break avoiding Rodgers this week, otherwise they would be under .500. They only have one impressive win on their schedule; beating Cleveland in Week 1, and since then have only beaten mediocre teams (Washington, Philadelphia, Giants and Rodgers-less Green Bay).

They have a fairly difficult final schedule after beating up on NFC East teams. They have Broncos 2x, Raiders 2x, home for Cowboys and Steelers and then @Chargers and @Bengals. I just can't recall a team being such a heavy favorite and then falling apart without really being ravaged by injuries.

 

[Sille Skrub]

They have fallen a long, long way since that 20-0 talk.

 

[Red Averages]

I can't really get over how bad the Chiefs look. This was the SB favorite, an unstoppable offense, the best QB in the league off to the greatest start to a career in NFL history. And they SUCK. They are lucky to be 5-4. And moreso, they are getting worse. Mahomes has completely regressed as the season has gone along. Earlier in the season the defense was awful but the offense was still piling up points, even if Mahomes looked shaky at times and it was clear they couldn't really run the ball. Now the offense has completely fallen apart and resembles the offense of a 4-5 win team and not one of the most unstoppable forces in modern NFL history.

The Chiefs have scored 36 points in the last three games. In that time span Mahomes is averaging 215 yards per game, completing 57% of his passes, thrown 2 Tds, thrown 2 picks, and fumbled three times. They caught a massive break avoiding Rodgers this week, otherwise they would be under .500. They only have one impressive win on their schedule; beating Cleveland in Week 1, and since then have only beaten mediocre teams (Washington, Philadelphia, Giants and Rodgers-less Green Bay).

They have a fairly difficult final schedule after beating up on NFC East teams. They have Broncos 2x, Raiders 2x, home for Cowboys and Steelers and then @Chargers and @Bengals. I just can't recall a team being such a heavy favorite and then falling apart without really being ravaged by injuries.

Agreed, but until they are knocked out I think you need to be fearful that they'll find a way to turn it on. They clearly have the talent.

That said, watching their offense, it reminds me of the Pats documentary when BB was saying his fear was teams would figure out how easy it is to stop their offense if they doubled Moss and took away Welker. Seems similar to what teams are doing with Kelce and Hill.

 

[johnmd20]

Most of that is the 2nd Jets game, differential of +41 (of our +60) would be 8th all by itself.

Of course, but that isn't how point differential works. It is a cumulative stat that doesn't take out your best score and your worst score. It uses all your scores.

If you take out the best win for most teams and it would cut into the differential in a huge way. Baltimore's PD is 26. If you take out the Charger game, they are negative 2.

Tennessee is +44. If you take out their best win, they are plus 20.

TB is +77. Take out their best win, and they are +42. The Saints are +46. Take out their best win, they are +11.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Of course, but that isn't how point differential works. It is a cumulative stat that doesn't take out your best score and your worst score. It uses all your scores.

If you take out the best win for most teams and it would cut into the differential in a huge way. Baltimore's PD is 26. If you take out the Charger game, they are negative 2.

Tennessee is +44. If you take out their best win, they are plus 20.

TB is +77. Take out their best win, and they are +42. The Saints are +46. Take out their best win, they are +11.

Sure, but the point is, it's a huge outlier even by "best game" scenarios. The Patriots have a really good pt differential mostly because they got to play the Jets twice. We have beat up on bad teams, and not lost to good teams by that much.. which is nice, but Differential is a useless stat, particularly in half seasons where there is a major difference in SOS.

 

[johnmd20]

Sure, but the point is, it's a huge outlier even by "best game" scenarios. The Patriots have a really good pt differential mostly because they got to play the Jets twice. We have beat up on bad teams, and not lost to good teams by that much.. which is nice, but Differential is a useless stat, particularly in half seasons where there is a major difference in SOS.

I genuinely do not think it's useless in the NFL, even with 8-9 game samples. It does mean something. Not everything, but something. It is a very good indication about how a team really is.

Point being, Baltimore is playing on the edge. This could come to bite them down the road.

 

[Gunfighter 09]

Pats are 5th in the entire NFL in point differential. That's nuts.

Only the best of NFL teams run up the score on a divisional rival to settle 14 year old scores.

 

[wiffleballhero]

The Titans could easily end up 13-4:

At 7-2 they have Houston, Houston, Miami, Jacksonville still on the schedule. Do you think they can then squeeze two wins out of games vs. NO, Pitt, NE and SF? I'd say it is not crazy to think they can.

 

[Kliq]

Agreed, but until they are knocked out I think you need to be fearful that they'll find a way to turn it on. They clearly have the talent.

That said, watching their offense, it reminds me of the Pats documentary when BB was saying his fear was teams would figure out how easy it is to stop their offense if they doubled Moss and took away Welker. Seems similar to what teams are doing with Kelce and Hill.

Yeah, that is what makes it so strange. They have a bad game and its whatever; you know next game Mahomes will throw for 5 TDs in the first half and that will be that. The fact that they seem to be getting worse is truly strange; it can't be that teams just figured out how to stop the offense. Reid has been way too successful as an offensive mind to allow that to happen so quickly, especially given the talent he has at QB.

 

[Justthetippett]

Agreed, but until they are knocked out I think you need to be fearful that they'll find a way to turn it on. They clearly have the talent.

That said, watching their offense, it reminds me of the Pats documentary when BB was saying his fear was teams would figure out how easy it is to stop their offense if they doubled Moss and took away Welker. Seems similar to what teams are doing with Kelce and Hill.

I agree with this. They have time to figure things out. Mahomes looks out of sorts but I think that’s a function of Kelce reaching the end faster than anyone thought, and the coverages figuring out Hill. Could be the usual curve though, where the team that goes on a three/four year run has a down year before coming back. Big question for me is how long Reid stays around, given health and other considerations.

 

[DJnVa]

Sure, but the point is, it's a huge outlier even by "best game" scenarios. The Patriots have a really good pt differential mostly because they got to play the Jets twice. We have beat up on bad teams, and not lost to good teams by that much.. which is nice, but Differential is a useless stat, particularly in half seasons where there is a major difference in SOS.

I didn't say it was meaningful. I said it was nuts. And it is.

 

[ObstructedView]

I agree with this. They have time to figure things out. Mahomes looks out of sorts but I think that’s a function of Kelce reaching the end faster than anyone thought, and the coverages figuring out Hill. Could be the usual curve though, where the team that goes on a three/four year run has a down year before coming back. Big question for me is how long Reid stays around, given health and other considerations.

I'm not an X-and-O expert, but just based on eyeballs it feels to me like Mahomes developed some bad habits when they were flying high - including some of the cute side-arm stuff and improv that makes announcers horny - and a general sense of arrogance/laziness crept into the offense overall. They don't have the offensive line or patience to sustain long drives, so if they don't hit a couple big plays they seem to stall or make a sloppy mistake. I also think there is something to the "usual curve" theory; even the most potent offenses have a hard time maintaining their edge in a league where teams make adjustments and build their rosters around stopping certain types of attacks.