2024 HOF Ballot

Gdiguy

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Sheffield was never suspended for steroids. And I tend to believe him that he was just doing what Barry Bonds suggested when they were together, but stopped when he learned what was going on. A-Rod but not Manny is a weird one.
Why would A-Rod but not Manny be weird? There's a 50 WAR gap between them, and counting quickly I think A-Rod has like 8 seasons better than Manny's best season

Voting for A-Rod but not Bonds would be weird; Manny isn't really the same discussion
 

Ale Xander

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I love Manny to death but Arod over him is defensible on defensive grounds and if you don’t value playoffs as much.
Just not most of the rest and certainly not Colon or (imho) Sheffield
 

Ale Xander

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Why would A-Rod but not Manny be weird? There's a 50 WAR gap between them, and counting quickly I think A-Rod has like 8 seasons better than Manny's best season

Voting for A-Rod but not Bonds would be weird; Manny isn't really the same discussion
How many do we have to repeat this

.996 OPS Career for Manny (152 OPS+)

.930 OPS Career for Arod (140 OPS+)

Manny has a a186 and 184 OPS season. Arod doesn’t have 8 seasons better

it all depends how much you value defense
I’m ok with 15, maybe 20 OPS+ points (I choose 10) but let’s not get carried away with 8 seasons better (i vote in for both)
 

luckiestman

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Manny likes to slap his wife around plus steroids right? I’d put him in because I’m an on field guy but a lot of voters might not be.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Manny Ramirez never won an MVP award? That surprises me a bit.

Also, I forgot that ARod is in the 40-40 club and that he averaged 19 stolen bases a year for his career. Add in his defense at shortstop and third base and it's hard to argue Manny as the better overall player.
 

Ale Xander

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Manny Ramirez never won an MVP award? That surprises me a bit.

Also, I forgot that ARod is in the 40-40 club and that he averaged 19 stolen bases a year for his career. Add in his defense at shortstop and third base and it's hard to argue Manny as the better overall player.
He won the one MVP that counts, one that is worth 86 years of regular season awards.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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He won the one MVP that counts, one that is worth 86 years of regular season awards.
Great! I didn't realize that was all it took to make the Hall of Fame or to be a better player than someone else.

Edit: I think Manny should be in the Hall of Fame, but your insistence that he is better than ARod or that the only reason ARod is better is because of defense is a bit much.
 

Ale Xander

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Great! I didn't realize that was all it took to make the Hall of Fame or to be a better player than someone else.

Edit: I think Manny should be in the Hall of Fame, but your insistence that he is better than ARod or that the only reason ARod is better is because of defense is a bit much.
I am not insisting. I explicitly said it's completely defensible that Arod be considered better. Good point about speed though. Forgot about the speed after the hamburger helper swipe, tbh.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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How many do we have to repeat this

.996 OPS Career for Manny (152 OPS+)

.930 OPS Career for Arod (140 OPS+)

Manny has a a186 and 184 OPS season. Arod doesn’t have 8 seasons better

it all depends how much you value defense
I’m ok with 15, maybe 20 OPS+ points (I choose 10) but let’s not get carried away with 8 seasons better (i vote in for both)
A-Rod has the all-important edge in Black Ink, though
 

moondog80

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There is a world of difference between a SS (even a SS/3B) and a LF. How many HOF SS would be in if they put up the same numbers while playing OF? Honus Wagner and Ernie Banks? Maybe Ripken, but only because of the streak?

I love Manny. But A-Rod was much, much better.
 
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scottyno

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Dec 7, 2008
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How many do we have to repeat this

.996 OPS Career for Manny (152 OPS+)

.930 OPS Career for Arod (140 OPS+)

Manny has a a186 and 184 OPS season. Arod doesn’t have 8 seasons better

it all depends how much you value defense
I’m ok with 15, maybe 20 OPS+ points (I choose 10) but let’s not get carried away with 8 seasons better (i vote in for both)
Arod had 8 seasons with more oWAR than Manny's best year, due to a combo of speed and games played. Manny missed a combined 86 games those 2 seasons you referenced, Arod in his prime pretty much never missed games.
 

snowmanny

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Manny Ramirez never won an MVP award? That surprises me a bit.

Also, I forgot that ARod is in the 40-40 club and that he averaged 19 stolen bases a year for his career. Add in his defense at shortstop and third base and it's hard to argue Manny as the better overall player.
ARod was the better overall player, no doubt. The Red Sox tried to trade Manny for ARod.

But as for Manny not winning the MVP, there were lots of years of my life where 165 rbi would get you the MVP automatically. Not that he or winner Ivan Rodriguez deserved it, but Manny definitely had an MVP-level year in 1999.
 

scottyno

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I was surprised Victor Martinez had only 32 WAR. I remembered him as being the top catcher in the league for many years, and his numbers look good. Skewed by early years in the steroid era?
Was pretty much done as a catcher after his 2010 Sox season, though still had several good years in Detroit mostly as DH before he totally fell off a cliff his last 4 years.
 

Sad Sam Jones

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Victor was the top hitting catcher in the league for a while, and if I recall, he became proficient at handling a pitching staff. However, he was always a poor defensive catcher.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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More career games at DH than C. 37.4 oWAR and -8.3 dWAR. Similar career value to JD Martinez. Hard to put up a ton of career value if you DH a ton (unless you are Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz).
 

E5 Yaz

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Leyland elected

Jim Leyland (15 votes, 93.8%);
Lou Piniella (11 votes, 68.8%);
Bill White (10 votes, 62.5%);
Cito Gaston, Davey Johnson, Ed Montague, Hank Peters and Joe West each received less than five votes.
 

E5 Yaz

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Here was the committee:

The 16-member panel, formerly known as the Veterans’ Committee, includes Hall of Famers Jeff Bagwell, Tom Glavine, Chipper Jones, Bud Selig, Ted Simmons, Jim Thome and Joe Torre; major league executives Sandy Alderson, Bill DeWitt, Michael Hill, Ken Kendrick, Andy MacPhail and Phyllis Merhige; and veteran media members/historians Sean Forman, Jack O’Connell and Jesus Ortiz.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Came here to mock the Hunter pick, but man, he had a way better career than I remembered. 50 bWAR, nearly 2500 hits. 350 homers, 5x all star, 9x gold glove winner. I don’t think he’s a HOFer but he’s got a better case than I realized.
 

simplicio

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Here's the relevant quote about not voting for Beltre, so you can avoid giving that turd your click:

Beltre will get plenty of support, and maybe even make it on this year’s first ballot. There are voters who are passionate about Beltre’s qualifications, and those qualifications are impressive.

The last five Hall ballots cast by this voter, however, have all only included the elite of the elite, which is what Cooperstown is supposed to be all about. Only eight players have received this vote — Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Derek Jeter, David Ortiz, Rivera, Ramirez and Rodriguez.

Beltre was good, but not as good as anyone in that group.
That's it, that's his whole argument. I'm sure it's somehow irrelevant that Beltre has more WAR than half the guys he has voted for.
 

Ale Xander

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Here's the relevant quote about not voting for Beltre, so you can avoid giving that turd your click:



That's it, that's his whole argument. I'm sure it's somehow irrelevant that Beltre has more WAR than half the guys he has voted for.
He wants a small hall
I don’t think it makes him a turd

Only part I don’t like is he makes Jeter one of the 8 best players he’s ever seen
 

Ale Xander

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Halladay seems much more of an average-ish Hall of Famer than small hall elite.
What?
He has 2 Cy';s, 2 2nd place finishes, and 3 other top 5 finishes. He led the league in K/BB ratio 5 times.He led the league in CG 5 straight years, and 7 of 9. He was a horse. And did it in good hitting divisions. In 2005, he missed 40% of the season and still led the league in CG. He was one of the 2-3 best pitchers of his generation.
 

simplicio

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The only way I can think even a small hall guy doesn't want Beltre in first ballot is
A) they want attention.
B) they think defense 100% doesn't matter. Like not even a little bit.

Beltre is the 2nd greatest defensive 3B in history after Brooks Robinson.
 

Ale Xander

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The only way I can think even a small hall guy doesn't want Beltre in first ballot is
A) they want attention.
B) they think defense 100% doesn't matter. Like not even a little bit.

Beltre is the 2nd greatest defensive 3B in history after Brooks Robinson.
Beltre should 100% be in, and I totally forgot his 2004 year focused on, um, the other league. But he only has 2 top-5 MVP finishes and he played a historically offensive position, so it seems like BB valued offense more due to the position. And Beltré’s OPS wasn’t elite (defense absolutely was)
 

Jason Bae

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Beltre should 100% be in, and I totally forgot his 2004 year focused on, um, the other league. But he only has 2 top-5 MVP finishes and he played a historically offensive position, so it seems like BB valued offense more due to the position. And Beltré’s OPS wasn’t elite (defense absolutely was)
Yeah, prior to Beltre's lone season in Boston he was a career .271/.325/.454 (105 OPS+). He was a fine hitter, but there were some pedestrian seasons mixed in (5 sub-100 OPS+ seasons, including 83 in 2009) along with that monster 2004 season. He had 44.6 bWAR, but that was largely because of his defense. From 2010-18, Beltre hit .307/.358/.514 (130 OPS+). I do think moving from LA/SEA to BOS/TEX explains most of that, going from two pitcher friendly parks (especially Safeco) to the likes of Fenway/Arlington. He was not really known for his offensive prowess prior to 2010, and it's not like he was getting a lot of HOF consideration. Now he ranks 3rd among 3B in WAR, 4th in JAWS, 5th in WAA, and 6th in WAR7. And even with only 2 top 5 MVP finishes, he ranks 7th in MVP shares. Keep in mind Boggs only had four top 10 finishes.

Amazing how much things changed in a decade.
 
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scottyno

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Beltre should 100% be in, and I totally forgot his 2004 year focused on, um, the other league. But he only has 2 top-5 MVP finishes and he played a historically offensive position, so it seems like BB valued offense more due to the position. And Beltré’s OPS wasn’t elite (defense absolutely was)
Better hitter than Jeter with as everyone knows much much better defense. There is 0 case for not voting for him.
 

InstaFace

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In keeping with HOF season, MLB.com has put out a list of 7 players they argue were overlooked in their Cooperstown candidacy:

https://www.mlb.com/news/players-who-should-get-another-hall-of-fame-chance

Here's my take on that list. I'm a big-ish Hall guy, and some of these would clear my personal bar to get a vote (leaving aside any max-of-10 ballot issues):

1. Kenny Lofton. Very persuasive argument in the article. A throwback speed-and-average player in a power era. Arguably the best offensive player in baseball in 1994, and was a great CF, 15 DWAR at that position is impressive. Even after 2000 when he tailed off to being merely all-star level (~2 WAR) for his final 7 years, he was still a very good player. He came on the ballot in a year there were 10 other eventual HOFers (2013), but I think in isolation he deserves election.
2. Johan Santana. Was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in a 5-year stretch from 2004-2008. Didn't have a short career, just didn't have a long one - was basically done at 31. Had incredible K/9 and K/BB rates before it was cool. I think the quality of his peak should get him in, because it wasn't a flash in the pan, and 51 WAR is nothing to sneeze at for someone done at age 31.
3. Kevin Brown. We can make jokes about the 2004 ALCS till the cows come home, but I'm very persuaded by their argument that he was basically Smoltz without the postseason opportunities. Had Smoltz been a borderline candidate, maybe the postseason ought to make the difference, but Brown had a number of seasons where he was in the conversation for best pitcher in baseball. A merely big-ish hall would contain him, it wouldn't even require a very big hall.
4. Dick Allen. Missed time due to alcoholism, after enduring many ugly racist episodes, but was among the best players in baseball for most of his 20s, had an incredible MVP season in 1972, and was the first black star the late-to-integrate Phillies really had. Endured on the BBWAA ballot for the full 15 years, topping out at 19%, due to lack of counting stats. Missed Golden Era Committee election by one vote. Deserves entry imo.

--- My personal dividing line ---

5. Lou Whitaker. Hall of the Very Good for me. He did roll up a lot of WAR as a second baseman (72) but you can't say he had bad teammates (won the WS in 1984), he wasn't short-career-but-brilliant, it's not a peak-vs-longevity argument. I think he's a good pick for a dividing line between the truly Big Hall people and more hall centrists like me.
6. Bobby Grich. Very consistently above-average for a long time. Got MVP votes in 5 years but never among the real contenders. Didn't hit for average, or for power, drew walks pretty well before it was cool but not to an extraordinary degree. 71 WAR for a 2B is, again, pretty impressive, with plenty of it (~17) from defensive value. I guess I put a lot of weight on peak value, personally, and Grich doesn't have it.
7. Keith Hernandez. We already have too many 1Bs in the hall, and being the best defensive 1B isn't that impressive to me. I guess if he got in it wouldn't be a shame, WAR of 60 is respectable, but his career OPS+ (128) really doesn't favorably compare to that of 2B Grich above (125), and both of them lack counting stats.

The article makes the case for each of them, so read that, the above is just my reactions.
 

Max Power

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7. Keith Hernandez. We already have too many 1Bs in the hall, and being the best defensive 1B isn't that impressive to me. I guess if he got in it wouldn't be a shame, WAR of 60 is respectable, but his career OPS+ (128) really doesn't favorably compare to that of 2B Grich above (125), and both of them lack counting stats.
Posnanski thinks the only thing that kept Hernandez out of the Hall of Fame was being born left handed. If he threw righty, he would have been a great third baseman or shortstop and his offense would look a lot better. That seems about right.

The funny thing is that the greatest defensive third baseman ever, Brooks Robinson, was also born left handed. He just happened to break his arm as a kid and practiced throwing righty because he still wanted to play. It worked out pretty well for him.
 

Eric1984

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I would put all of them in except Brown and Hernandez. My ranking of them, in order:

1. Allen
2. Whitaker
3. Santana
4. Grich
5. Lofton
 

E5 Yaz

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That they don't have Dwight Evans on that list invalidates the exercise for me
 

DJnVa

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Red(s)HawksFan

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Gary Sheffield Jr. had a twitter thing yesterday with a writer that started out with this tweet by Sheffield, taking issue with writer's attitude towards voting:

View: https://twitter.com/GarysheffieldJr/status/1740110909778149696


The writer responded and said, in regards to voting for Sheffield:

View: https://twitter.com/MarcosBreton/status/1740074957063995607


Which, you know, would be Sheffield's 11th year...

View: https://twitter.com/GarysheffieldJr/status/1740114909051195580
Gotta love the argument that somehow Shef's case would improve with another year of consideration? Oh, I don't think he's a Hall of Famer right now, but next year all his unchanged stats and career accomplishments might somehow get better and change my mind?

Guy's an attention seeker, plain and simple. Shef Jr is only giving him what he wants.
 

InstaFace

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With 76 ballots now known (~20% of the total), here's a first count of how votes are stacking up.

97.4% Adrian Beltre (74/76) (1st year)
81.6% Joe Mauer (1st year)
80.3% Todd Helton (6th year; net -1 from 2023, missed by 11 votes last year)
75.0% Billy Wagner (9th year; net +2, missed by 27)
---
72.4% Gary Sheffield (10th year; net +5, missed by 78)
64.5% Carlos Beltran (2nd year, net +6, missed by 111)
63.2% Andruw Jones (7th year, net +0, missed by 66)
46.1% Chase Utley (1st year)
44.7% Alex Rodriguez (3rd year, net +0)
40.8% Manny Ramirez (8th year, net +0)
22.4% Bobby Abreu (5th year, net -2)

All others <15%. Bartolo Colon did get 1 vote so far. Matt Holiday, with a 110 HOF Monitor score, is currently rolling a Full Blutarsky (0.0), which I find the most shocking of all.

Seems unlikely Mauer and Helton will hold up - last year, Helton had a -6.4% delta from pre-results % to actual-final % (Wagner had a -4.2%). But maybe one of them will join Beltre.

2025 will introduce Ichiro (probably in), Sabathia (maybe in; longevity / counting stats), Pedroia (could get in; postseason, leadership / intangibles), Pedroia's college rival Ian Kinsler (very unlikely), and a bunch of other guys who will be "very honored to have been nominated". So today's debate is largely tomorrow's debate too.
 

E5 Yaz

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Mauer's totals thus far are what I find most surprising, if only because I thought how his career tailed off might wind up hurting him
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Mauer's totals thus far are what I find most surprising, if only because I thought how his career tailed off might wind up hurting him
He’s fondly remembered, for whatever reason, I guess because he played his entire career for a small / mid market team? A lot of mediocre years and zero postseason success, though. 250th career in bWAR, behind guys like Jeff Kent, Robin Ventura, Johnny Damon, and Will Clark.

I guess he was talked about as a future HOFer for so much of his career, that everyone kind of just assumed he should be.