2024 HOF Ballot
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
I think there's one first-timer who should be a lock and a couple others who will likely get in eventually but probably not this year.
My prediction for the 2024 class, not that I'm going out on much of a limb, is Beltre, Helton, and Wagner.
My prediction for the 2024 class, not that I'm going out on much of a limb, is Beltre, Helton, and Wagner.
Beltran and Beltre are both getting in. Too bad Brandon Belt wasn't a better player who retired 5 years ago.
If I had a vote, I'd throw one of my spots to Bartolo Colon. I know he wasn't that great for his career, but he provided more entertainment than much better players for a very long time.
If I had a vote, I'd throw one of my spots to Bartolo Colon. I know he wasn't that great for his career, but he provided more entertainment than much better players for a very long time.
So Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, and Adrian Beltre are going in this year.
Joe Mauer and Carlos Beltran will get in eventually (though I think Mauer should be a first ballot guy and Beltran should have been one as well).
Chase Utley is the most interesting newcomer. A late start to his career, hist first full season in the majors was age 26. He was a well-rounded player but did not stand out. Was overshadowed by his teammates Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins winning MVPs. Had injuries in the second part of his career and was less productive. But for a five season stretch (2005-2009) he was the second best player in baseball by fWAR. So he doesn't have the longevity but probably has the peak.
Joe Mauer and Carlos Beltran will get in eventually (though I think Mauer should be a first ballot guy and Beltran should have been one as well).
Chase Utley is the most interesting newcomer. A late start to his career, hist first full season in the majors was age 26. He was a well-rounded player but did not stand out. Was overshadowed by his teammates Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins winning MVPs. Had injuries in the second part of his career and was less productive. But for a five season stretch (2005-2009) he was the second best player in baseball by fWAR. So he doesn't have the longevity but probably has the peak.
Beltran has the stink of the Astros trash can all over him. That'll hurt him with more than a few writers.
I'm not sure anyone other than Beltre gets in this year.
I'm not sure anyone other than Beltre gets in this year.
Helton got to 72.2% last year. I think the only guy who's broken 70% and not gotten in the next year is Schilling, and that strikes me as a unique case. Helton certainly doesn't have any of that kind of baggage working against him.
You're right. He's a hair's width away - he should be able to pick up that 2.8% easily.
Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez all being first-timers on the ballot is giving me nostalgia for the 2010-11 Red Sox teams. A time of frustrated expectations! And surprisingly long ago. Wish we had hung on to the right Adrian.
Not that anyone’s thinking seriously about Bartolo Colon for the HOF, but it’s always struck me as curious that he seems to have gotten a pass for his failed synthetic testosterone test in the collective baseball memory. Certainly if someone’s not voting for Manny, I don’t see how they would end up with a vote for Bartolo.
Not that anyone’s thinking seriously about Bartolo Colon for the HOF, but it’s always struck me as curious that he seems to have gotten a pass for his failed synthetic testosterone test in the collective baseball memory. Certainly if someone’s not voting for Manny, I don’t see how they would end up with a vote for Bartolo.
Ichiro and Sabathia will be first time locks next year, and Mauer might be a 2nd ballot guy. It’s kind of now or never for guys like Wagner, Jones, Helton.
Bartolo is fat. It's easier to pretend that a positive test for a fat guy is likely a mistake.
You really think Matt Holliday is a Hall of Famer, let alone a first timer? He was a really good player*, but he only had one season where he was among very best players in the game, and that was in Colorado. Only one top ten MVP finish, one batting title and one RBI title (all three things in the same year). .299 career batting average, 2,096 career hits, 316 home runs, played left field most of his career. Hit a pedestrian .245/.303/.421 in the post season. I'm not going to lose any sleep if he gets in someday, but I would think there are others out there with better cases.
*certainly better than Harold Baines, but I think we all agree that he's not the bar we should be using here.
Mauer is probably a first ballot lock. This isn't a particularly strong class, the big steroids guys fell off, and Mauer played his entire career with one team being an MVP and an MVP candidate throughout his career. Every catcher even near him in war/jaws is in.
Well, shit. I really thought his numbers were better than that. I could've sworn he had 400+ HR and closer to 2500 hits. Wow. Scratch him.
I think Joe Mauer can rest easy that he's a future Hall of Famer... he did things that almost no other catchers have done, but he definitely was not an MVP candidate throughout his career. I'm not sure whether his last five years as a 105 OPS+ first baseman will exclude him from going in on the first ballot, but they definitely eliminate him as a "first ballot lock". His vote total will be the most intriguing to me.
Good points on Mauer. He hit 328/409/481 as a catcher- but just 1118 hits, 91 homers, 514 rbi. 115 ops+ as a catcher, but 82 at 1b and 93 in dh. 10 singles and a double in 10 postseason games (all losses). His resume isn’t as strong as it initially looks although I assume he gets in.
Yeah, in fact, Mayer started fewer games at catcher than he did at other positions combined in his career ... so comping him to other catchers doesn't quite work. Like Sad Sam, I think he gets there eventually, but it might take half his eligibility
Beltre, Beltran, Jones, Mauer, Ramirez, (Alex) Rodriguez, Sheffield, Utley
I don’t really get the support for Wagner or Helton, but I won’t be offended or anything if/when they do make it in.
I don’t really get the support for Wagner or Helton, but I won’t be offended or anything if/when they do make it in.
Yeah, it makes sense not to have two of the three greatest right handed hitters of a golden generation of players not in what has become a ridiculous museum.
Some year, they'll institute a Steroids Era Committee, which will consider just those players deemed likely to enter the HoF without using. They'll hold a separate, indoor ceremony in February on Super Bowl Weekend for those elected.
I would go Beltre, Manny, Beltran, Pettitte, Helton, and Sheffield. (ugh, and A-Rod).
Not sure why Wagner has much more of a case than K-Rod. I’d probably leave them both out.
Not sure why Wagner has much more of a case than K-Rod. I’d probably leave them both out.
Between Colon, Rollins, Torii Hunter, and Joey Bats, there are a lot of "memorable moments" guys on the ballot this year.
My ballot:
Helton
Andruw
Buehrle
K-Rod
Beltre
Beltran
A-Rod
Manny
Sheffield. Fine. Can't vote Manny without also voting him.
My ballot:
Helton
Andruw
Buehrle
K-Rod
Beltre
Beltran
A-Rod
Manny
Sheffield. Fine. Can't vote Manny without also voting him.
.996 v .907 is not close
11th best v 65th best
Of the top 10 the only one who retired post-1960 was Bonds
manny is higher than DiMaggio, Mantle and Musial
he is arguably the best right handed hitter in the last 75 years
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I don’t get the love for Beltran without the same love for Andruw Jones who was a very similar player offensively but much more elite defensively.
To me, if you are taking away the C factor for Mauer, is he really a hall of famer? Or is he low-power high-average 1B/DH who had a good 3 year stretch as a C early in his career? He hit more than 11 HRs twice in his career and OPS’d at a Hall of Very Good 827.
Similarly, Beltre gets in because of longevity and the magic 3000 Hit Club, but he was a 4 time All-Star with a 817 OPS who won 5 GGs and was always seeming “very good” but not “great”.
I think Holliday and Helton have the two best cases, although Holliday will likely not get in on the 1st ballot because of *tradition*. Perhaps I’m overweighting OPS, but they are the only two guys with elite numbers (Helton Coors impact notwithstanding).
Relievers are tough comps, but Billy Wagner has a career FIP of 273 which would be top 60 all-time if he had thrown 97 more innings with a career WHIP of 0.998 which is better than Mariano Rivera. Seems like that with a 2.31 ERA and 422 saves should make him a Hall of Famer.
My ballot has:
Todd Helton
Matt Holliday
Billy Wagner
To me, if you are taking away the C factor for Mauer, is he really a hall of famer? Or is he low-power high-average 1B/DH who had a good 3 year stretch as a C early in his career? He hit more than 11 HRs twice in his career and OPS’d at a Hall of Very Good 827.
Similarly, Beltre gets in because of longevity and the magic 3000 Hit Club, but he was a 4 time All-Star with a 817 OPS who won 5 GGs and was always seeming “very good” but not “great”.
I think Holliday and Helton have the two best cases, although Holliday will likely not get in on the 1st ballot because of *tradition*. Perhaps I’m overweighting OPS, but they are the only two guys with elite numbers (Helton Coors impact notwithstanding).
Relievers are tough comps, but Billy Wagner has a career FIP of 273 which would be top 60 all-time if he had thrown 97 more innings with a career WHIP of 0.998 which is better than Mariano Rivera. Seems like that with a 2.31 ERA and 422 saves should make him a Hall of Famer.
My ballot has:
Todd Helton
Matt Holliday
Billy Wagner
Billy Wagner being so close to getting in baffles me. I don't remember him being particularly dominant compared to other closers of his era, although he did stick around for a long time. I mainly remember him for blowing a bunch of games in the postseason. Just checked and he had a 10.03 ERA in 14 career postseason appearances.
I mean... I think this is selling him a little short. Adrian Beltre has the third-highest bWAR (93.5) of any third baseman in history, behind only Schmidt and Eddie Mathews, ahead of Boggs, Brett, and Chipper. He may not compare to the greatest hitters of all time, but he absolutely compares to the greatest hitters at his position of all time — he has the most hits of any third baseman ever, the third-most home runs of any third baseman ever... *and* he was an absolutely elite defender, with a career dWAR at third base second only to Brooks Robinson. He did play for a really long time, but that's because he was good for a really long time, played for 21 seasons providing elite production for a third baseman and terrific defense, and almost never had a bad year. He is worth two Matt Hollidays (career 44.5 bWAR).
187 career era+ is good for 2nd best all time among relief pitchers with at least 350 innings pitched, better career than Trevor Hoffman who just got in recently. He's a little low on the innings pitched compared to some other HOF relievers, but was absolutely dominant pretty much his entire career. Unless you're anti every modern reliever besides Rivera he has to make it.
Not that I want to make a case for him, but Andy Pettitte had a much better career than Jack Morris and a bunch of other pitchers in the HOF. I guess the PED stuff doomed him (as well as never really being the best pitcher on a bunch of great teams), but 256 regular season, 19 playoff wins and a big part of 5 WS champ teams used to be automatic.
Beltre should be in.
So should Andruw Jones, IMO. 400+ homers (yes that stuff still matters, I guess), one of the elite defensive CFs of all time. I know his black and gray ink aren't up to HOF standards, but all I know is that there was a pretty long stretch when he was one of the very best players in all MLB. I can see the argument against him, but I think he should be in.
And I think I'm at the point where the PED guys should be in. If you want to make a note on their plaque, fine. And I'm not a big hall kind of guy either. (though it may seem like it from this post)
So should Andruw Jones, IMO. 400+ homers (yes that stuff still matters, I guess), one of the elite defensive CFs of all time. I know his black and gray ink aren't up to HOF standards, but all I know is that there was a pretty long stretch when he was one of the very best players in all MLB. I can see the argument against him, but I think he should be in.
And I think I'm at the point where the PED guys should be in. If you want to make a note on their plaque, fine. And I'm not a big hall kind of guy either. (though it may seem like it from this post)
Feels like Jones is hurt a lot by pretty much falling off the face of the earth when he turned 30. He had his first bad season in 2007 (when he won his last gold glove), Atlanta let him go, and he was never a regular player again. 4 different teams in 5 years, a part time player. After his disastrous, injury plagued (and possibly laziness plagued) time with Dodgers, he signed a minor league contract with the Rangers when he was only 32. How many future Hall of Famers do that? He bounced around on a couple of more low dollar contracts and never had more than 331 plate appearances in a season.
Most Hall of Famers manage to play at least mediocre baseball for several full seasons well into their 30s, basking in the glow of "baseball star" adulation, often as part of a franchise where they earned their honors. Once he left Atlanta, it seemed like Jones was a forgotten player. He certainly didn't do anything to enhance his resume. Personally, I'd say what he did in his 20s probably qualifies him, but that doesn't seem to be the standard that the Hall of Fame voters want.
He didn't play that much later in his career but at ages 33 and 34 he put up ops+ of 120 (White Sox) and 126 (Yankees). His five seasons after leaving Atlanta:
1191 AB, 66 hr, 172 rbi, .210/.316/.434/.720, 95 ops+
That's not great obviously, but it's not totally falling off a cliff. But it's not all that unusual. There are guys in the HOF like that. Here's just a few that come to mind.
George Sisler
- 1915-1922: 60 hr, .361/.404/.510/.914, 155 ops+
- 1924-1930: 42 hr, .320/.354/.426/.780, 97 ops+
Wade Boggs
- 1982-1995: .334/.424/.453/.877, 138 ops+
- 1996-1999: .297/.372/.392/.764, 97 ops+
Cal Ripken Jr.
- 1981-1991: .280/.349/.467/.816, 126 ops+
- 1992-2001: .271/.329/.424/.753, 97 ops+
But you're probably right. That's a huge part of why he's not in the HOF right now.
1191 AB, 66 hr, 172 rbi, .210/.316/.434/.720, 95 ops+
That's not great obviously, but it's not totally falling off a cliff. But it's not all that unusual. There are guys in the HOF like that. Here's just a few that come to mind.
George Sisler
- 1915-1922: 60 hr, .361/.404/.510/.914, 155 ops+
- 1924-1930: 42 hr, .320/.354/.426/.780, 97 ops+
Wade Boggs
- 1982-1995: .334/.424/.453/.877, 138 ops+
- 1996-1999: .297/.372/.392/.764, 97 ops+
Cal Ripken Jr.
- 1981-1991: .280/.349/.467/.816, 126 ops+
- 1992-2001: .271/.329/.424/.753, 97 ops+
But you're probably right. That's a huge part of why he's not in the HOF right now.
Jones and Dale Murphy are a lot alike (though Murphy wasn't the elite defender Jones was). Both had HOF type years in their 20s and both declined rapidly in their 30s. I always thought Murphy should be in even though he really did fall off a cliff after his age 31 season. By those standards, Jones should be in too.
Yeah, but Boggs and Ripken were both full time players well into their 30s. That's the point - they spent a good 5-10 years living off of past glory while playing okay, not great, baseball. This enabled them to get to magic numbers, like 3,000 hits. If Jones had been capable of playing full time until he was into his late 30s, he'd have reached 500 homers and he'd be in on the first ballot. Instead, he had the stink of "wow, what happened to that guy!?"
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James Shields can thank whoever came up with his nickname for even being included on the ballot.
Abreu is one of those guys the statheads love (like my boy Posnanski) but I just can't wrap my head around being a HOFer. I just never thought of him as being elite.'
I'm always interested in the Buehrle vs Pettitte argument. I assume Pettitte's case relies heavily on the postseason and Buehrle maybe on throwing a perfect game?
Having Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley on the ballot together os sort of interesting to me. Always think of them together. Rollins got the MVP but Utley was undoubtedly the better player over his career.
I'm a big Hall guy so my ten would be
Beltran
Beltre
Helton
Jones
Mauer
Manny
ARod
Sheffield
Utley
Wagner
Abreu is one of those guys the statheads love (like my boy Posnanski) but I just can't wrap my head around being a HOFer. I just never thought of him as being elite.'
I'm always interested in the Buehrle vs Pettitte argument. I assume Pettitte's case relies heavily on the postseason and Buehrle maybe on throwing a perfect game?
Having Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley on the ballot together os sort of interesting to me. Always think of them together. Rollins got the MVP but Utley was undoubtedly the better player over his career.
I'm a big Hall guy so my ten would be
Beltran
Beltre
Helton
Jones
Mauer
Manny
ARod
Sheffield
Utley
Wagner
I always find reviewing HoF candidates to be a fascinating exercise in examining collective memory and regard.
I was just perusing BBRef, looking at Beltran, Jones and Bobby Abreu. The latter was arguably the best hitter of the three. And while Jones and Beltran were better defensively, Abreu did win a gold glove once, and I don't recall him being considered a poor outfielder.
And yet, no one is arguing for Abreu to get into the Hall.
I was just perusing BBRef, looking at Beltran, Jones and Bobby Abreu. The latter was arguably the best hitter of the three. And while Jones and Beltran were better defensively, Abreu did win a gold glove once, and I don't recall him being considered a poor outfielder.
And yet, no one is arguing for Abreu to get into the Hall.
I had my list typed up and then realized it was exactly the same as yours. I'd be fine with Abreu as well, but I only have 10 slots.
Case in point on this very ballot: Todd Helton.
His last 6 years were really pedestrian. But it allowed him to tack on another 60+ HRs and 600+ hits.
I'll concede after looking at his numbers that he has a much better case than I thought. I still don't remember Wagner being considered in the same echelon as Hoffman or other guys like Francisco Rodriguez while he was playing so I was genuinely shocked to see that his ERA was half a run lower than those guys. Maybe his regular season accomplishments went under the radar as the media never let him get over his reputation as a postseason choker. (Or maybe I just have bad memory.)
I do generally think that closers should be held to a very high standard when evaluating their Hall of Fame case and if I was voting I would only support a reliever who had at least one dominant postseason run culminating in a championship. Even though they obviously didn't have the regular season pedigree to garner Hall of Fame consideration, in my head guys like Papelbon and Koji for example had more successful careers than guys like Wagner and Hoffman because they were lights out in the playoffs and each carried the Sox all the way to a World Series win in '07 and '13 respectively, while Hoffman and Wagner consistently came up small.