2023 Week 1 NFL Gamethread

[Deathofthebambino]

I didn't watch the game either, but I don't think it makes a difference if it was by design or precipitated by bad protection, when your completions, not attempts, your completions go for 6.5 yards a pop, that's a sign you're struggling to move the ball.

Also, this is something I've wanted to bring up since the whole Mac YPA discussion yesterday: no offensive system bakes in a low YPA. You may have lower intended air yards per attempt, lower average depth of target, but generally those plays are designed to put people in space and generate YAC, which elevates YPA. Low YPA is never achieved by design, it's a measure of how efficient your passing game is and no one wants low efficiency as a principle.

Let's look at that then:

Mac Jones YAC yesterday was 5.3.

This is Josh Allen's YAC per season: 5.6, 4.9, 4.7, 4.3, 4.4, 4.3 yesterday. Yesterday, his averaged depth of target was 8.4 to Mac's 7.1, but his average depth of completion was 3.9 to Mac's 3.6.
Tom Brady last five seasons (cant' find further back): 5.7, 4.9, 4.5, 5.3, 4.7 (folks might try to make the argument that it's because he throws it deeper, Mac's IAY/PA yesterday was 7.1, Tom's last 5 seasons, 7.9, 7.6, 9.1, 8.1, 6.7)
Joe Burrow: 4.3, 6.2, 5.2, 3.6 Sunday
Herbert: 5.6, 5.4, 5.2, 8.0 Sunday (Herbert's YAC numbers were great Sunday. His average depth of target on an attempt was 4.1. Mac's was 7.1) Herbert's average completion on Sunday was 1.9 yards passed the LOS, Mac's was 3.6, so Herbert relied on short passes and YAC way, way more than Mac did this week.
Jalen Hurts was throwing the ball downfield yesterday, to the tune of 9.1 yards per attempt through the air. The problem was he only completed passes that went an average of 4.9, and the YAC was only 2.3.

I could do this all day, but ultimately, that's the give and take. You throw it deeper, you complete less but hit on big plays more often. You throw it shorter, you should get a lot more YAC and keep moving the chains. Saying "Low YPA is never achieved by design" unless you account for the ways you get to that low YPA. I'd argue that a 70% chance of getting 6ypa is a better result than a 50% chance of getting 8ypa, because one of those keeps the chains moving, and this is only heightened when you need to get the ball out quickly with a makeshift line against a great defense.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I mean, you asked how a guy with 80% completions and no picks could lead an anemic offense, so that to me sounded like a reason right off the bat. That's all. EPA/Play and QBR rated his performance highly, PFF had him middle of the pack.

I watched probably 90% of their offensive plays on Sunday. I unfortunately had to start Russell Wilson at QB in my SoSH Dynasty league. I wouldn't say he was running for his life by any means and the stats back that up (hit 4 times total and 2 sacks). I just think the losses at WR with Jeudy and Patrick out again gave him little to work with. He started the game really well, but then kind of didn't do much of anything. It was such a weird game. They only punted twice, they missed a long field goal, they had no turnovers, but they only scored 16 points. They never attempted a fourth down conversion.

The difference in the game was both teams had 10 penalties each, and Will Lutz missed a 50+ yard field goal and an extra point.

 

[rodderick]

Let's look at that then:

Mac Jones YAC yesterday was 5.3.

This is Josh Allen's YAC per season: 5.6, 4.9, 4.7, 4.3, 4.4, 4.3 yesterday. Yesterday, his averaged depth of target was 8.4 to Mac's 7.1, but his average depth of completion was 3.9 to Mac's 3.6.
Tom Brady last five seasons (cant' find further back): 5.7, 4.9, 4.5, 5.3, 4.7 (folks might try to make the argument that it's because he throws it deeper, Mac's IAY/PA yesterday was 7.1, Tom's last 5 seasons, 7.9, 7.6, 9.1, 8.1, 6.7)
Joe Burrow: 4.3, 6.2, 5.2, 3.6 Sunday
Herbert: 5.6, 5.4, 5.2, 8.0 Sunday (Herbert's YAC numbers were great Sunday. His average depth of target on an attempt was 4.1. Mac's was 7.1) Herbert's average completion on Sunday was 1.9 yards passed the LOS, Mac's was 3.6, so Herbert relied on short passes and YAC way, way more than Mac did this week.
Jalen Hurts was throwing the ball downfield yesterday, to the tune of 9.1 yards per attempt through the air. The problem was he only completed passes that went an average of 4.9, and the YAC was only 2.3.

I could do this all day, but ultimately, that's the give and take. You throw it deeper, you complete less but hit on big plays more often. You throw it shorter, you should get a lot more YAC and keep moving the chains. Saying "Low YPA is never achieved by design" unless you account for the ways you get to that low YPA. I'd argue that a 70% chance of getting 6ypa is a better result than a 50% chance of getting 8ypa, because one of those keeps the chains moving, and this is only heightened when you need to get the ball out quickly with a makeshift line against a great defense.

Sounds like you agree with me, then.

 

[joe dokes]

Already

NFL Fans Think Josh Allen Is Too Distracted By Hailee Steinfeld (msn.com)

The Venn Diagram of "NFL Fans who run to twitter to . . . . . . ." and those who are unmarried is a circle.

 

[koufax32]

How long until Bills Mafia starts harrassing Hayley Steinfeld due to Allen's shitastic play?

Q: What did the Bills fan say when he found out Josh Allen and Hayley Steinfeld were a thing?

A: OH NOSE!

Get it?? GET ITTTT???!?!?!?!!?

 

[54thMA]

So last night Vinnie Testaverde of all people was at the game as an honorary captain, the same guy who blew out his left achilles tendon 24 years ago.

And then Rodgers blew out his left achilles tendon.

There is no doubt, as in none, that the Jets as a franchise are incapable of having nice things.

 

[Devizier]

Way too early to call it, but I'm eagerly hoping for an end to the video game offense/every possession scores era. The lack of variance takes a lot out of the game in my opinion.

 

[cornwalls@6]

Way too early to call it, but I'm eagerly hoping for an end to the video game offense/every possession scores era. The lack of variance takes a lot out of the game in my opinion.

Unless the league somehow legislates more defense back into the game, I don’t think that’s ever happening. Fantasy, betting, tv ratings, appealing to more and more casual fans, etc., all depend on a high scoring, more entertaining product/TV show. I’d like to see more contrasts of style in matchups as well, but I think that NFL is permanently a thing of the past.

 

[luckiestman]

Way too early to call it, but I'm eagerly hoping for an end to the video game offense/every possession scores era. The lack of variance takes a lot out of the game in my opinion.

I thought only one game was a shootout, Fish/Bolts

 

[luckiestman]

Look at this asshole

View: https://twitter.com/cyjpod/status/1701766916736475180?s=46&t=WNUE08imv33kOt1BO6WMzQ

 

[johnmd20]

Way too early to call it, but I'm eagerly hoping for an end to the video game offense/every possession scores era. The lack of variance takes a lot out of the game in my opinion.

It was the worst first week offensive production in the NFL since 2003, I think. NFL scoring has also dropped for 2 consecutive years.(and will probably be 3 after this year) Total scoring is down 11.9% in that time. And last year's NFL scoring average was almost equal to what is was in 1995 and lower or equal to the average scores in the previous twelve years.

This post should have happened in August of 2021 when the average score was 24.8 per team and not 20.5 like it was this past weekend.

 

[rodderick]

It was the worst first week offensive production in the NFL since 2003, I think. NFL scoring has also dropped for 2 consecutive years.(and will probably be 3 after this year) Total scoring is down 11.9% in that time. And last year's NFL scoring average was almost equal to what is was in 1995 and lower or equal to the average scores in the previous twelve years.

This post should have happened in August of 2021 when the average score was 24.8 per team and not 20.5 like it was this past weekend.

Interesting. I wonder if the combination of new practice rules and shortened preseason has had an impact on early season quality of play especially. My eyes say yes, but what the fuck do I know.

 

[johnmd20]

Interesting. I wonder if the combination of new practice rules and shortened preseason has had an impact on early season quality of play especially. My eyes say yes, but what the fuck do I know.

The lack of practice definitely has an impact. The starters barely play in the preseason, plus there isn't much hitting. And then teams try to ramp up for the season and a lot of players get hurt. Kelce, Andrews, Kupp were the prime examples of this. Burrow, too, who played but poorly. Waller too, who played poorly.

Plus you have Dobbins done now, Rodgers too, Dionte Johnson is out for a few weeks, Kenneth Gainwell had a lot of volume on Sunday and now he's out with the ribs. The offenses aren't in sync and the players aren't ready to get hit. And the injuries have piled up because the game is so fast and the players are just too strong and too fast.

I also heard something on a Podcast this morning that would also fit. If you're a 6"4' athletic monster, you're playing defensive line so you can sack the QB. It's fun, you're attacking, you aren't playing OL and just going backwards all game. So what is happening is that OLs are regressing and DLs are getting all the absolutely athletic freaks. And the OLs can't do anything against that.

Wilson was running for his life this weekend, Herbert, Mac, Burrow, Watson, Bryce Young, Stroud, Josh Allen, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Richardson, Tannehill, Pickett were all running for their lives and those are just off the top of my head. If a QB doesn't have time, nothing can happen.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

Was Mac "running for his life?" I didn't see it that way.

 

[luckiestman]

Was Mac "running for his life?" I didn't see it that way.

I generally agree with John’s post but saw the Mac game more in line with how you saw it. Maybe it’s because I expected it to be much worse.

 

[johnmd20]

Was Mac "running for his life?" I didn't see it that way.

Jalen Carter had the highest rated PFF score for the weekend out of any defensive player and racked up 8 pressures just by himself, in 34 attempts.

 

[cshea]

I think it was schemed up protection. They ran a ton of screens and quick throws which I think made the line look better than it played.

I believe Mac was pressured on something like 33% of dropbacks which is good numbers for the Oline (I belive Hurts was in the 40's). I don't know how the PFF numbers work, maybe they include this stuff in the formula, but I wonder what the percentage looks like on true drop backs.

That said, considering the 2 rookie guards and the Eagles line I thought they held up better than expected even if he was sacked in crucial moments down the stretch. He had time to throw downfield, I wouldn't characterize it as running for his life.

 

[Justthetippett]

Jalen Carter had the highest rated PFF score for the weekend out of any defensive player and racked up 8 pressures just by himself, in 34 attempts.

If this guy keeps everything on track he's basically a turbo-charged Chris Jones.

 

[nattysez]

The Bears had quite a week. In addition to getting owned by the Packers yet again, they now seem to have a serious Chase Claypool problem.

It sounds like they are at least considering deactivating Claypool for Week 2: https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/matt-eberflus-on-possibly-deactivating-chase-claypool-looking-at-all-options

 

[Prodigal Sox]

I also heard something on a Podcast this morning that would also fit. If you're a 6"4' athletic monster, you're playing defensive line so you can sack the QB. It's fun, you're attacking, you aren't playing OL and just going backwards all game. So what is happening is that OLs are regressing and DLs are getting all the absolutely athletic freaks. And the OLs can't do anything against that.

It's also because the college offenses are different than the NFL and the drafted OLineman haven't spent 3-4 years in a pro system in college. I think Dante may have discussed this a few years ago.

I also wonder if some of it is just QB play. If you don't have a premier quarterback your offense can rally suffer.

 

[joe dokes]

I also heard something on a Podcast this morning that would also fit. If you're a 6"4' athletic monster, you're playing defensive line so you can sack the QB. It's fun, you're attacking, you aren't playing OL and just going backwards all game. So what is happening is that OLs are regressing and DLs are getting all the absolutely athletic freaks. And the OLs can't do anything against that.

I think there was a confluence of NFL rules favoring the offense even more, and the proliferation of the 7-on-7 era of college QBs and offenses that began to overrun defenses for awhile. But, as always, defensive coaches adjust; drafting strategies change and maybe here we are.

 

[luckiestman]

Maybe there is some fun factor to d line going against passing attacks but run blocking looks like some of the most fun a big man can have. Watching these dudes knock the shit out of people is great.

 

[OCST]

The lack of practice definitely has an impact. The starters barely play in the preseason, plus there isn't much hitting. And then teams try to ramp up for the season and a lot of players get hurt. Kelce, Andrews, Kupp were the prime examples of this. Burrow, too, who played but poorly. Waller too, who played poorly.

Plus you have Dobbins done now, Rodgers too, Dionte Johnson is out for a few weeks, Kenneth Gainwell had a lot of volume on Sunday and now he's out with the ribs. The offenses aren't in sync and the players aren't ready to get hit. And the injuries have piled up because the game is so fast and the players are just too strong and too fast.

I also heard something on a Podcast this morning that would also fit. If you're a 6"4' athletic monster, you're playing defensive line so you can sack the QB. It's fun, you're attacking, you aren't playing OL and just going backwards all game. So what is happening is that OLs are regressing and DLs are getting all the absolutely athletic freaks. And the OLs can't do anything against that.

Wilson was running for his life this weekend, Herbert, Mac, Burrow, Watson, Bryce Young, Stroud, Josh Allen, Zach Wilson, Daniel Jones, Richardson, Tannehill, Pickett were all running for their lives and those are just off the top of my head. If a QB doesn't have time, nothing can happen.

This feels right. It tracks with what we’ve seen re: the devaluation of RB and the running game. Feels like the pinnacle of OL play historically has been when they’re blowing the DL off the LOS and opening huge holes for the RB- but that’s not the thing to do anymore.

I don’t like it- the pendulum has swung too far in favor of the QB and the passing game.

/five bees for a quarter

 

[trekfan55]

View: https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1701407991897928181?s=20

TRENDING: Some are starting to speculate that #Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett struggled vs. the #49ers yesterday due to a possible concussion after getting SLAMMED into the ground on the third play of the game I do not get how he was not taken out of the game immediately after this to be checked, especially since Pickett has suffered from concussion issues in the past.

Can anyone explain why he was not taken out of the game after that hit? I thought there were "spotters" in the league.

 

[8slim]

View: https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1701407991897928181?s=20





Can anyone explain why he was not taken out of the game after that hit? I thought there were "spotters" in the league.

I didn’t see what happened after his head smacked the turf, but I assume that Pickett got up quickly. And that’s probably why the spotters ignored it.

The reason why people lost their minds about Tua last year was because he staggered like a drunk sailor and yet nothing was done. Hell, I recall a Pats WR similarly staggering last season and another Pat held him up and led him off the field (or perhaps it was that he called TO). Either way, the spotter did jack squat.

The whole system is nonsense and the NFL couldn’t care less about these guys heads bouncing off the turf.

 

[trekfan55]

I didn’t see what happened after his head smacked the turf, but I assume that Pickett got up quickly. And that’s probably why the spotters ignored it.

The reason why people lost their minds about Tua last year was because he staggered like a drunk sailor and yet nothing was done. Hell, I recall a Pats WR similarly staggering last season and another Pat held him up and led him off the field (or perhaps it was that he called TO). Either way, the spotter did jack squat.

The whole system is nonsense and the NFL couldn’t care less about these guys heads bouncing off the turf.

I think anyone hitting their heads like that should be pulled out of the game and tested. Full stop. And spotters are there just to do that.

 

[8slim]

I think anyone hitting their heads like that should be pulled out of the game and tested. Full stop. And spotters are there just to do that.

I agree.

 

[strek1]

WT

 

[BigSoxFan]

Eagles looking kind of crappy right now.

 

[rodderick]

Hurts continues to look unimpressive, to say the least.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Eagles looking kind of crappy right now.

Geez, I was wondering if I was the only one with Amazon Prime for a bit.

Yes, they don't look great.

 

[Ale Xander]

https://www.sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2023-week-2-nfl-gamethread.40488/