2023 QB Carousel

j-man

Member
Dec 19, 2012
2,939
Arkansas
Hope you’re right about Rodgers. Howell I saw play against the Noles. He was good in college.

The thing about Carr is I think he has a no trade. So he could play hardball and I think Raiders would have to cut him or trade him where he wants to ho. Details probably in this thread: I’ll have to start at beginning and look thru.
the q about rodgers is will gb be ok with eating 60 mil in $ rodgers for 1-2 years max couild turn the jets from 7-10 to 11-12 wins and cost bill the shula rec because i douct mr kraft wouild be ok with 2 7-10 or worse seasons because getting aaron means u will be 3-1 or 4-0 aga ne the next 2 years
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
27,033
He costs A LOT though. In terms of salary and compensation for the Packers. Plus he’s kind of a despicable human being (fake vax card, rants on the woke mob and cancel culture…)
Unless he’s out there doing violent crimes, I don’t really give a shit. I want a QB that can sling it. I’ll drink concussion water if Brady QB’s the Jets.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 12, 2015
1,689
Quincy
Unless he’s out there doing violent crimes, I don’t really give a shit. I want a QB that can sling it. I’ll drink concussion water if Brady QB’s the Jets.
I would rather exhaust every shot at getting Brady before giving up any compensation for Rodgers, unless we can get him without giving up the 23 1st. I think my preferred list would be Brady, Carr, Lamar, Rodgers. Not saying any of them would be bad choices, this is just my personal preference
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
15,981
Forgot about this thread. Feel free to ignore this post, but want to use it to track the carousel.


I will use an asterisk if I feel like no movement

Bills: Allen*
Fish: Tua/Tommy
Pats: Mac/Tommy
Jets: Rodgers/Carr/Tommy/Jimmy/Lamar

Colts: ? Draft
Titans: Tannehill (could be gone)
Jags: Sunshine*
Texans: Draft/ Mills

Chiefs: Pat*
Chargers: Herbert*
Raiders: ?/Tommy/Rodgers
Broncos: Russ*

Steelers: Kenny*
Ravens: Lamar (no asterisk but likely)
Bengals: Joe Cool*
Browns: Watson*

Giants: Dimes (likely)
Eagles: Hurts*
Cowboys: Dak*
Commanders: ?

Bucs: ?
Panthers: ? Sam draft /Tommy
Falcons: ? draft
Saints: ? draft

9ers: Purdy/Lance/Jimmy
Seattle: Geno/draft
Rams: Stafford
Cardinals: Kyler*

Packers: Rodgers/Love
Vikes: Cousins*
Lions: Goff/draft
Bears: Fields* (I would trade him and draft Stroud but I don’t think they will).

More thoughts later. Anyone disagree with asterisks (either direction)?
I'll add a list of free agents and potential trade candidates:

Free Agents:

Brady (100% leaving)
Lamar Jackson (franchise tag on its way)
Jimmy G (100% leaving)
Daniel Jones (could get an exclusive rights tag if the Giants want to keep him)
Geno Smith (does Seattle let someone else pay him?)
Heinicke (hope it works out for him)

Trade bait or cut candidates:

Carr (will quickly be cut if no trade available)
Rodgers (probably less than 50/50 chance, but smoke, fire, etc.)
Tannehill
Matt Ryan (likely cut)

And the Wheel of Backups:

Mike White
Mayfield
Darnold
Bridgewater
Brissett
Keenum
Huntley
Stidham
Minshew
Flacco
Several others
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
10,136
I would rather exhaust every shot at getting Brady before giving up any compensation for Rodgers, unless we can get him without giving up the 23 1st. I think my preferred list would be Brady, Carr, Lamar, Rodgers. Not saying any of them would be bad choices, this is just my personal preference
Funny thing about Brady is that assuming he plays somewhere besides TB next season he will most likely have the highest cap hit on two teams in 2023. He is going to count 35M against the TB cap next season unless he retires or returns to TB, neither of which seem likely.
 

trekfan55

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 29, 2004
9,552
Panama
I truly don't get the Brady or Rodgers to SF talk. Sure, they are great QBs and all but SF has an incredible team and is in the NFCCG no less, under Brock Purdy. They have a lot of money to pay soon as rookie contracts start ending and can enjoy having 2 good QBs at low cost for a while.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
29,114
I'll add a list of free agents and potential trade candidates:

Free Agents:

Brady (100% leaving)
Lamar Jackson (franchise tag on its way)
Jimmy G (100% leaving)
Daniel Jones (could get an exclusive rights tag if the Giants want to keep him)
Geno Smith (does Seattle let someone else pay him?)
Heinicke (hope it works out for him)

Trade bait or cut candidates:

Carr (will quickly be cut if no trade available)
Rodgers (probably less than 50/50 chance, but smoke, fire, etc.)
Tannehill
Matt Ryan (likely cut)

And the Wheel of Backups:

Mike White
Mayfield
Darnold
Bridgewater
Brissett
Keenum
Huntley
Stidham
Minshew
Flacco
Several others
I think either Heinecke or Brissett is in the wrong category, there is a pretty good case that Jacoby's better than Heineke at essentially the same age.


I truly don't get the Brady or Rodgers to SF talk. Sure, they are great QBs and all but SF has an incredible team and is in the NFCCG no less, under Brock Purdy. They have a lot of money to pay soon as rookie contracts start ending and can enjoy having 2 good QBs at low cost for a while.
I don't think they do anything, but that's really the case FOR a move is that they have a really good team that they want to win Superbowl's with, and they have the cap room to slide in Brady or Rodgers for 2 years to make 2 runs as favorites, then those guys come off right when you have to make decisions on aging stars (Trent Williams will be 37 and his contract will be at the cut or restructure years, Kittle 32 and in the last year, Armstead a FA, Ward a FA, etc.) It's really a team built around a window of 2022-2024, so if they can get a QB upgrade it would be interesting. Problem is... I don't think they see Brady as a big enough upgrade for his likely salary demands, and while Rodgers is a great fit with his post-trade salary, I don't think they have the assets to get it done (unless someone will give them a 1st for Lance).
 

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
3,971
Article from overthecap on options with Rodgers.

The cap charge here would depend on when he was traded. If Rodgers were to be traded prior to June 1st the Packers would take on a $40,313,750 cap hit in 2023. If he was traded after June 1st it would be a $15,833,570 cap hit in 2023 with $24,480,000 due in 2024.
 
Last edited:

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
10,335
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
I think either Heinecke or Brissett is in the wrong category, there is a pretty good case that Jacoby's better than Heineke at essentially the same age.



I don't think they do anything, but that's really the case FOR a move is that they have a really good team that they want to win Superbowl's with, and they have the cap room to slide in Brady or Rodgers for 2 years to make 2 runs as favorites, then those guys come off right when you have to make decisions on aging stars (Trent Williams will be 37 and his contract will be at the cut or restructure years, Kittle 32 and in the last year, Armstead a FA, Ward a FA, etc.) It's really a team built around a window of 2022-2024, so if they can get a QB upgrade it would be interesting. Problem is... I don't think they see Brady as a big enough upgrade for his likely salary demands, and while Rodgers is a great fit with his post-trade salary, I don't think they have the assets to get it done (unless someone will give them a 1st for Lance).
Rodgers had a worse 2022 than Brady by pretty much every measure, if Brady isn't enough of an upgrade over Purdy for his lower salary demands, why would Rodgers be one?
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
29,114
Rodgers had a worse 2022 than Brady by pretty much every measure, if Brady isn't enough of an upgrade over Purdy for his lower salary demands, why would Rodgers be one?
I think he's clearly better in terms of what he has left physically, played with much less talent, but yeah there are concerns. Though part of it is I misread his remaining salary... I thought he was much cheaper than he is because I thought his $30M in bonus next year was signing, but it's roster so.... yeah risky.
 

DanoooME

above replacement level
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
18,781
Henderson, NV
Two first round picks for Rodgers? They are on dream street. They'd have to send 2 first rounders to me to get me to take Rodgers off their hands, especially at that salary. Glad to see he's not going to the NFC. But why drop a rumor that eliminates half the league as a trade partner? It's just dumb all around.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
7,288
I get that they are the best QB’s if they’re generation, but are there any concerns that neither Rodgers nor Brady was particularly good this year? Are they still top tier NFL QB’s?

Certainly never going to bet against either, but Father Time does win eventually and there seemed to be warning signs about both players this season.
 

glennhoffmania

a 20 on all 5
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
8,408,877
NY
I get that they are the best QB’s if they’re generation, but are there any concerns that neither Rodgers nor Brady was particularly good this year? Are they still top tier NFL QB’s?

Certainly never going to bet against either, but Father Time does win eventually and there seemed to be warning signs about both players this season.
This is where I'm at. I think Rodgers is a better bet though. He seemed to be dealing with the thumb injury for a while and as it started to heal up he looked better down the stretch. Brady, as far as I know, was healthy and was throwing to better WRs, and he looked like he'd taken a significant step back. I wouldn't give up a ton to get either one though.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
27,033
This is where I'm at. I think Rodgers is a better bet though. He seemed to be dealing with the thumb injury for a while and as it started to heal up he looked better down the stretch. Brady, as far as I know, was healthy and was throwing to better WRs, and he looked like he'd taken a significant step back. I wouldn't give up a ton to get either one though.
Brady’s line was a lot worse this year than the prior 2. Rodgers looked good for a guy that hurt his hand against…I think it was Giants in London. They are both still good.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 12, 2015
1,689
Quincy
Funny thing about Brady is that assuming he plays somewhere besides TB next season he will most likely have the highest cap hit on two teams in 2023. He is going to count 35M against the TB cap next season unless he retires or returns to TB, neither of which seem likely.
I would gladly pay him 35m. It’d be cheaper than the other options!
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
10,335
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
I think he's clearly better in terms of what he has left physically, played with much less talent, but yeah there are concerns. Though part of it is I misread his remaining salary... I thought he was much cheaper than he is because I thought his $30M in bonus next year was signing, but it's roster so.... yeah risky.
At receiver, sure. Certainly not in terms of OL, running game and play calling. Didn't think Brady looked any worse physically last year than he did in 2020/21, though he has a much higher risk of dropping off.
 

glennhoffmania

a 20 on all 5
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
8,408,877
NY
Brady’s line was a lot worse this year than the prior 2. Rodgers looked good for a guy that hurt his hand against…I think it was Giants in London. They are both still good.
They're both still perfectly fine QBs. I haven't said otherwise. I simply said that they aren't top tier anymore, and they're not worth giving up multiple first rounders (in Rodgers' case) or blowing up your cap (in both cases).
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
35,963
AZ
I have not seen great reporting on the cap implications of an Aaron Rodgers deal. It would be absolutely massive for the acquiring team. They have tricks to spread it out over multiple years, but it's still a huge number.

As I understand it, a trade would accelerate about $40 million on to the Packers' cap. If they waited until after June 1 to do the trade, they would push off some of that money to 2024. I don't know their current cap situation, but I assume that taking on a large accelerated hit would require them to clear space.

As for the acquiring team, they immediately take on a $60 million cap hit for 2023. They could choose to apportion that over 4 years, at $15 million per year. But, $60 million is $60 million. As a practical matter, though, they are really taking him on for 2024 as well, at another $47 million. They have to decide before the 2024 season, and I think his contract for 2024 becomes guaranteed quickly. The reason I say that as a practical matter they have to keep him on, it's because if they don't, they basically accelerate the $40+ million that they spread out over 4 years. If Rodgers were to retire, though, they get out of the $47 million. But he will never retire when he could earn another $47 million for one more season of work, I wouldn't think.

So, the bottom line is that an acquiring team takes on a $107 million cap hit for two years of Aaron Rodgers. They could manage it to spread it over a few years, but $107 million is $107 million and so you're mortgaging your future. I can't imagine taking on a cap hit of over $50 million per year for a QB and giving up two first round draft picks.
 
Last edited:

SemperFidelisSox

Member
SoSH Member
May 25, 2008
26,983
Boston, MA
How about…

Dak Prescott to Jets for #13 pick
Dallas sends #13 and #26 to Green Bay for Rodgers

A fresh start for Dak. Rodgers and McCarthy reunited. Packers use picks to get weapons for Jordan Love.
 
Last edited:

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
35,963
AZ
Apparently, the Packers are already about $20 million in the hole on 2023 cap space, if OTC is to be believed. So, to trade Rodgers pre-June 1, they have to clear that, plus more, with no easy options. Aaron Jones and Bakhitari can be restructured or cut, but then they start to run out of options fast.

If they trade him after June 1, they get a 2023 cap savings. But at a considerable cost in future years. This is one of the reasons that some of the reporting on this is so superficial -- you see things like "if they wait until June 1, they get $15 million in cap relief," with no further explanation. But you always have to pay the piper eventually.

Anyway, he's going to be a Packer for 2023 and 2024. This is all just noise.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
14,424
Two first round picks for Rodgers? They are on dream street. They'd have to send 2 first rounders to me to get me to take Rodgers off their hands, especially at that salary. Glad to see he's not going to the NFC. But why drop a rumor that eliminates half the league as a trade partner? It's just dumb all around.
I assume they think that the only thing standing between them and Jordan Love cruising to next year's Super Bowl is Aaron Rodgers on the Commanders, or something.

Very odd.
 

DisgruntledSoxFan77

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 12, 2015
1,689
Quincy
I also think he's overrated. On the other hand, I just looked up the list of Jets QBs to see how many were better than right now's version of Dak..... there aren't many (maybe any).
Oh no question he’s better than anyone they have but I feel like they’re far better off going with the list of names known to be available: Carr, Rodgers, Brady, Jackson (if he is actually available). Prescott.. please no!
 

nattysez

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
6,969
I truly don't get the Brady or Rodgers to SF talk. Sure, they are great QBs and all but SF has an incredible team and is in the NFCCG no less, under Brock Purdy. They have a lot of money to pay soon as rookie contracts start ending and can enjoy having 2 good QBs at low cost for a while.
This is where I am too, but when Rich Eisen asked Bert Breer about potential Brady destinations on his show today, Breer mentioned SF first. I don't get it, but there's enough chatter in the air that I'm going to stop considering it impossible.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
18,083
This is where I am too, but when Rich Eisen asked Bert Breer about potential Brady destinations on his show today, Breer mentioned SF first. I don't get it, but there's enough chatter in the air that I'm going to stop considering it impossible.
SF's front office doesn't leak though - similar to Bloom. Remember all the hand wringing over who they were going to take at #3 leading up to the actual draft? IIRC it was Mac Jones up until the pick was in. I don't trust any reporting regarding their inner thoughts and think that the far most likely scenario is keeping two bargain QBs to allow the money to be spent elsewhere.
 

trekfan55

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 29, 2004
9,552
Panama
SF's front office doesn't leak though - similar to Bloom. Remember all the hand wringing over who they were going to take at #3 leading up to the actual draft? IIRC it was Mac Jones up until the pick was in. I don't trust any reporting regarding their inner thoughts and think that the far most likely scenario is keeping two bargain QBs to allow the money to be spent elsewhere.
This is where I am too.

I was screaming every time people said Mac Jones (at the time he had bigger expectations but not for the haul the Niners gave to trade up to pick # 3). And yet the FO kept it quiet and drafted their guy.
From several sites I see they have about 12MM in cap space, and they still need to negotiate with McGlinchey and Ward (plus whatever other deals they can make) plus sign some players and their draft picks. How much can they realistically offer Brady?
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
18,083
This is where I am too.

I was screaming every time people said Mac Jones (at the time he had bigger expectations but not for the haul the Niners gave to trade up to pick # 3). And yet the FO kept it quiet and drafted their guy.
From several sites I see they have about 12MM in cap space, and they still need to negotiate with McGlinchey and Ward (plus whatever other deals they can make) plus sign some players and their draft picks. How much can they realistically offer Brady?
Plus all indications are that they want to lock up Bosa long-term this offseason before turning to Aiyuk. They could offer Brady a fraction of what the Raiders or another team would likely put on the table. I think McGlinchey is likely gone.
 

CoffeeNerdness

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 6, 2012
7,247
This is where I am too, but when Rich Eisen asked Bert Breer about potential Brady destinations on his show today, Breer mentioned SF first. I don't get it, but there's enough chatter in the air that I'm going to stop considering it impossible.
I think the idea may be that while the Purdy run is super impressive, he's still not a proven commodity. If they stand pat with Purdy and Lance and Purdy comes back to earth and Lance's stalled development caps his ceiling and they end up flaming out then that could shut their SB window.