Here’s how I see the carousel:
Bucs: They could roll with Kyle Trask, but more likely, their Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Tom Brady to the carousel, though of course he could retire.
Colts: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Matt Ryan to the carousel.
Commanders: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Taylor Heineke and Carson Wentz to the carousel.
Falcons: Marcus Mariota is under contract for another season, but I think they’ll look to acquire a long-term solution at the position, likely retaining Mariota either as a backup or to mentor a rookie who needs seasoning.
49ers: Expect they will roll with Purdy or Lance. Jimmy G to the carousel.
Giants: Daniel Jones is a free agent. Would’ve said with confidence a week ago that he wouldn’t be tagged, but now who the hell knows. Putting him on the carousel.
Jets: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Mike White likely stays as a backup. Zach Wilson to the carousel.
Lions: Jared Goff has a $30.6m cap hit for 2023 and a $10m dead-cap number. Putting Goff on the carousel because I think the time is ripe for the Lions to acquire their long-term QB.
Panthers: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Sam Darnold to the carousel.
Patriots: Perhaps wishful thinking, but I’d like to see them bring a veteran to camp to compete with Jones and Zappe for the starting job.
Raiders: Week 1 starter isn’t on the current roster. Derek Carr to the carousel.
Ravens: A week ago, I would’ve said Lamar is back on a tag or a long-term deal unless someone offers three first-round picks. Now I’m not so sure — Lamar’s injury seems more serious than we thought, and no-showing a playoff game is the act of a man preparing to shoot his way out of town. Lamar’s on the carousel.
Saints: They desperately need a cap reset but who the hell knows what they will actually do. They’re stuck with Taysom Hill for another year, but I’m putting Jameis Winston on the carousel.
Seahawks: Geno Smith is a free agent and won’t be tagged.
Texans. Even though they’re picking 2nd, I still think they’ll address the position through the draft, though they’ll likely sign a veteran QB to push the new kid. Davis Mills to the carousel; they won’t want a guy in camp who commands the loyalty of some of the team’s veterans.
Titans: Ryan Tannehill’s 2023 cap number is $36.6m with a dead cap number of $18.8m. Not putting on the carousel because I think a restructure is mutually beneficial and will get done.
On the carousel (in alphabetical order, likely starters in bold):
Tom Brady
Derek Carr
Sam Darnold
Jimmy Garoppolo
Jared Goff
Taylor Heineke
Lamar Jackson
Daniel Jones
Baker Mayfield
Davis Mills
Gardner Minshew
Matt Ryan
Geno Smith
Carson Wentz
Zach Wilson
Jameis Winston
Among the bolded names, only Carr and Jimmy G are locks to change teams; Brady could retire, and the others could return to their current teams. But there’s the potential for a ton of movement.