2023 Pats: Offseason

Cellar-Door

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Genuine question. Not sure if anyone here would have insight.

The Hopkins situation: did teams have a hunch he’d be released and that’s why no one offered draft capital? Do these types of rumors go around in league circles and get teams to sit on their hands and wait for his FA?

Just seems odd to me a top WR, in this pass-heavy league, that’s still in his prime, wouldn’t net a couple of late picks when a team can have exclusive access to him, yet hits FA and teams appear to be lined up?

I get part of it was the contract. But for a team in GFIN mode, why risk missing out?
He makes a ton of money and no real indication he was willing to re-work anything. I think the only team who wouldn't have either needed him or somebody else to restructure was CHI, otherwise getting him meant pushing a lot of money into future year giarantees
 

Old Fart Tree

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He makes a ton of money and no real indication he was willing to re-work anything. I think the only team who wouldn't have either needed him or somebody else to restructure was CHI, otherwise getting him meant pushing a lot of money into future year giarantees
Yeah, anytime it seems befuddling that a big name is available, it's like 99% of the time because of the contract.
 

DJnVa

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Yeah, guys don't need to be in their prime to improve the Patriots, or any team. It's about the money, as with every player.
 

BigSoxFan

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Hopkins is probably just a better Parker at this point, but that has it's own value.
Would change the perception of the Patriots' offense almost overnight, even if the on field impact would probably be nothing too special. I'd love to have him. Add him to JuJu, Bourne, Parker, Thornton, and you've got a pretty nice group with some intriguing draft flyers as depth.
 

Cellar-Door

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Would change the perception of the Patriots' offense almost overnight, even if the on field impact would probably be nothing too special. I'd love to have him. Add him to JuJu, Bourne, Parker, Thornton, and you've got a pretty nice group with some intriguing draft flyers as depth.
I would guess Parker would be cut or someone traded, I guess they could cut both of the rookies but not sure that makes sense over saving 6M by letting Parker go
 

BigSoxFan

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I would guess Parker would be cut or someone traded, I guess they could cut both of the rookies but not sure that makes sense over saving 6M by letting Parker go
Agreed - it would definitely create some nice depth and options. If Hop miraculously signed here, you’d have some really nice veteran chain movers in he and JuJu with TT hopefully emerging as a deep threat and Bourne as another reliable guy as well.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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It is worth overpaying a bit for DeHop b/c, in addition to being an impact WR for at least another year or so (I'd think), he also has value in that he allows the team to more clearly see what exactly they have (or don't) in Mac Jones. We need to know if Mac is legit worth keeping for the full five years and beyond. Get it done, Theo.
 

DJnVa

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New Video Reveals Patriots Considered This Draft-Day Trade (nesn.com)

The Commanders were interested in moving up from No. 16, so general manager Martin Mayhew placed a call to Eliot Wolf, one of the Patriots’ top personnel executives. Wolf asked for Washington’s third-round pick (No. 97 overall) in return. Mayhew said he might be willing to give up a fourth, but not a third.

Wolf then offered to include an additional sixth-rounder in the deal, meaning the Commanders would get No. 14 and a sixth in exchange for Nos. 16 and 97. No deal, Mayhew said. Head coach Ron Rivera agreed. Washington ultimately stayed put and selected Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes. New England, which had made the trade with Pittsburgh, took Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez one pick later.
“I don’t think (Forbes) gets past the Patriots,” Commanders executive Marty Hurney told Rivera during one of Mayhew’s calls with Wolf.

New England clearly viewed the situation differently, however. Patriots director of player personnel Matt Groh said one of the reasons they felt comfortable making the Steelers trade was because they were confident Washington would take Forbes.
 

BaseballJones

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I think it's a small chance they sign Hopkins. But let's just play make believe for a minute. He just turned 31 on June 6. His last two seasons he's missed a lot of time (10 and 9 games played, respectively). Over that time, here's what he's done:

19 g, 160 tgt, 106 rec, 66.3%, 1,289 yds, 12.2 y/c, 11 td

Here's what his stats project to over a 16 game season (let's be optimistic and assume he only misses one regular season game):

135 tgt, 89 rec, 1,085 yds, 9 td

Which, of course, would be terrific. So he's still a very, very good wide receiver, when he's on the field. If he were to sign here, here's what the WR depth chart would look like. (not counting Slater and Webb who we all know are just special teams guys)

Roster
Bourne
Boutte
Douglas
Hopkins
Lee
Nixon
Parker
Smith-Schuster
Thornton

Depth Chart (as I see it)
Hopkins
Parker
Smith-Shuster
Bourne
Thornton
Boutte
Douglas
Nixon
Lee

I mean, that group would be pretty terrific, IMO. Hopkins as the WR1 pushes everyone down the depth chart, into a much more natural position. The top 5 of Hopkins, Parker, JuJu, Bourne, and Thornton is pretty good. And I think that Boutte and Douglas can really show the team some potential.

Is it more likely that if they sign Hopkins, they'd move Parker? That might be the play, in order to save money and/or get help somewhere else.

Bottom line: signing Hopkins would make this team more dangerous offensively. He's still a really good receiver - not what he once was, but still pretty good.
 

RedOctober3829

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I think it's a small chance they sign Hopkins. But let's just play make believe for a minute. He just turned 31 on June 6. His last two seasons he's missed a lot of time (10 and 9 games played, respectively). Over that time, here's what he's done:

19 g, 160 tgt, 106 rec, 66.3%, 1,289 yds, 12.2 y/c, 11 td

Here's what his stats project to over a 16 game season (let's be optimistic and assume he only misses one regular season game):

135 tgt, 89 rec, 1,085 yds, 9 td

Which, of course, would be terrific. So he's still a very, very good wide receiver, when he's on the field. If he were to sign here, here's what the WR depth chart would look like. (not counting Slater and Webb who we all know are just special teams guys)

Roster
Bourne
Boutte
Douglas
Hopkins
Lee
Nixon
Parker
Smith-Schuster
Thornton

Depth Chart (as I see it)
Hopkins
Parker
Smith-Shuster
Bourne
Thornton
Boutte
Douglas
Nixon
Lee

I mean, that group would be pretty terrific, IMO. Hopkins as the WR1 pushes everyone down the depth chart, into a much more natural position. The top 5 of Hopkins, Parker, JuJu, Bourne, and Thornton is pretty good. And I think that Boutte and Douglas can really show the team some potential.

Is it more likely that if they sign Hopkins, they'd move Parker? That might be the play, in order to save money and/or get help somewhere else.

Bottom line: signing Hopkins would make this team more dangerous offensively. He's still a really good receiver - not what he once was, but still pretty good.
I wonder how DHop and Parker would co-exist, but BOB can figure it out.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think it's a small chance they sign Hopkins. But let's just play make believe for a minute. He just turned 31 on June 6. His last two seasons he's missed a lot of time (10 and 9 games played, respectively). Over that time, here's what he's done:

19 g, 160 tgt, 106 rec, 66.3%, 1,289 yds, 12.2 y/c, 11 td

Here's what his stats project to over a 16 game season (let's be optimistic and assume he only misses one regular season game):

135 tgt, 89 rec, 1,085 yds, 9 td

Which, of course, would be terrific. So he's still a very, very good wide receiver, when he's on the field. If he were to sign here, here's what the WR depth chart would look like. (not counting Slater and Webb who we all know are just special teams guys)

Roster
Bourne
Boutte
Douglas
Hopkins
Lee
Nixon
Parker
Smith-Schuster
Thornton

Depth Chart (as I see it)
Hopkins
Parker
Smith-Shuster
Bourne
Thornton
Boutte
Douglas
Nixon
Lee

I mean, that group would be pretty terrific, IMO. Hopkins as the WR1 pushes everyone down the depth chart, into a much more natural position. The top 5 of Hopkins, Parker, JuJu, Bourne, and Thornton is pretty good. And I think that Boutte and Douglas can really show the team some potential.

Is it more likely that if they sign Hopkins, they'd move Parker? That might be the play, in order to save money and/or get help somewhere else.

Bottom line: signing Hopkins would make this team more dangerous offensively. He's still a really good receiver - not what he once was, but still pretty good.
My sentiments exactly. Hopkins isn't 2015-2020 DHop anymore but he's still a productive NFL WR and would certainly help this offense. I doubt we're at the top of his list but the fact that he's coming to Foxboro has to be an indication that he's at least considering it. If they're lucky enough to sign Hopkins, I don't really worry about the fit with Parker since odds of them both playing full seasons (if both here) are pretty low at their age. BB may opt to deal Parker in this scenario but I doubt he would get much so it would probably be more about needing to free up the cash to sign Hopkins and have money left over for other things.
 

j44thor

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I wonder how DHop and Parker would co-exist, but BOB can figure it out.
I think the guy DHop replaces is Bourne not Parker. Parker was used as a down the field deep ball specialist winning 1-1 jump balls as indicated by his 15.7 ADOT last year. DHop is more of an intermediate sideline specialist with a career high ADOT of 12.3.
If you add DHop as the X you probably have Parker and Thornton competing for Z snaps which is a good thing given I don't think either will be healthy for 16gms. Then Juju in the slot with Bourne backing everyone up as a jack of all trades.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think it's a small chance they sign Hopkins. But let's just play make believe for a minute. He just turned 31 on June 6. His last two seasons he's missed a lot of time (10 and 9 games played, respectively). Over that time, here's what he's done:

Bottom line: signing Hopkins would make this team more dangerous offensively. He's still a really good receiver - not what he once was, but still pretty good.
Probably worth noting that 6 of the 8 he missed last year were suspension not injury (honestly the other 2 may have been "injury" as well, basically sitting down a guy while trying to lose).

I think the guy DHop replaces is Bourne not Parker. Parker was used as a down the field deep ball specialist winning 1-1 jump balls as indicated by his 15.7 ADOT last year. DHop is more of an intermediate sideline specialist with a career high ADOT of 12.3.
If you add DHop as the X you probably have Parker and Thornton competing for Z snaps which is a good thing given I don't think either will be healthy for 16gms. Then Juju in the slot with Bourne backing everyone up as a jack of all trades.
Feel like DHop, Parker, Juju is one of the slowest WR corps of the last decade, like a less talented version of last year's Chargers.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Probably worth noting that 6 of the 8 he missed last year were suspension not injury (honestly the other 2 may have been "injury" as well, basically sitting down a guy while trying to lose).


Feel like DHop, Parker, Juju is one of the slowest WR corps of the last decade, like a less talented version of last year's Chargers.
But they’re good, even if not lightning fast.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I think it's a small chance they sign Hopkins. But let's just play make believe for a minute. He just turned 31 on June 6. His last two seasons he's missed a lot of time (10 and 9 games played, respectively). Over that time, here's what he's done:

19 g, 160 tgt, 106 rec, 66.3%, 1,289 yds, 12.2 y/c, 11 td

Here's what his stats project to over a 16 game season (let's be optimistic and assume he only misses one regular season game):

135 tgt, 89 rec, 1,085 yds, 9 td
I agree with your final verdict - sign him, he's still really good - but I think people here keep viewing him as a significantly inferior version of his prime. I've repeated myself a few times on this and I hate to do it again, but people keep posting this same info and its without context.

As noted above, 6 of the games Hopkins missed last season was due to PED suspension. Its the NFL, who cares? More importantly, you can't look at Hopkins numbers last year without pointing out that only 4 of his 9 games came with a competent QB (Murray). The remaining 5 games had him receiving passes from Colt McCoy and some guys named Trace McSorley and David Blough.

In 4 games with Murray, he averaged 8.5 receptions for 97 yards a game and had 3 TDs.

In 5 games with the other three QB's, he averaged 6.75 receptions for 63 yards and 0 TD's.

Obviously its SSS, but just for fun:

A full season with Murray puts him at 144 receptions and 1649 yards.
A full season with the QB pu-pu platter puts him at 114 receptions and 1071 receiving yards.

Now, he probably wasn't going to actually challenge for the single season reception record, but his numbers with a competent QB were stellar, and his numbers with really shitty QB's was still very good. That is to say that I think Hopkins provides more value than people here continue to believe. Its why I've been on board for signing him since day one. And while his numbers would regress from the Murray stats above for a myriad of reasons, they'd also improve with a better offensive line, run game, better complimentary WR's (JuJu is better than anyone he played with last season), and better offensive coordinator.

I do still believe hes a legit #1. As good as his prime? No. But a top 10-15 WR (100ish receptions, 1100ish yards)? Yup.
 

joe dokes

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I agree with your final verdict - sign him, he's still really good - but I think people here keep viewing him as a significantly inferior version of his prime. I've repeated myself a few times on this and I hate to do it again, but people keep posting this same info and its without context.

As noted above, 6 of the games Hopkins missed last season was due to PED suspension. Its the NFL, who cares? More importantly, you can't look at Hopkins numbers last year without pointing out that only 4 of his 9 games came with a competent QB (Murray). The remaining 5 games had him receiving passes from Colt McCoy and some guys named Trace McSorley and David Blough.

In 4 games with Murray, he averaged 8.5 receptions for 97 yards a game and had 3 TDs.

In 5 games with the other three QB's, he averaged 6.75 receptions for 63 yards and 0 TD's.

Obviously its SSS, but just for fun:

A full season with Murray puts him at 144 receptions and 1649 yards.
A full season with the QB pu-pu platter puts him at 114 receptions and 1071 receiving yards.

Now, he probably wasn't going to actually challenge for the single season reception record, but his numbers with a competent QB were stellar, and his numbers with really shitty QB's was still very good. That is to say that I think Hopkins provides more value than people here continue to believe. Its why I've been on board for signing him since day one. And while his numbers would regress from the Murray stats above for a myriad of reasons, they'd also improve with a better offensive line, run game, better complimentary WR's (JuJu is better than anyone he played with last season), and better offensive coordinator.

I do still believe hes a legit #1. As good as his prime? No. But a top 10-15 WR (100ish receptions, 1100ish yards)? Yup.
Im sure he's still good. But counting on a WR his age to play every game seems like a stretch. The question is whether he's worth it (no monetarily, just in terms of availability and disruption) if he misses 3-6 games.
 

Cellar-Door

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But they’re good, even if not lightning fast.
So are the Chargers guys (better honestly), I have concerns about how defenses play slow WR corps, especially since 2 of those guys get basically no separation at this point. If they sign Hopkins a Parker cut or trade wouldn't surprise me. While he's good, I think you're better off with someone like Bourne who can separate or Thornton with elite deep speed. Otherwise it's gonna get awful crowded in the middle of the field with no real threats, especially given that teams have made it clear they don't think Mac can make the deep out throws with the kind of juice you need to punish that.
 

BigSoxFan

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So are the Chargers guys (better honestly), I have concerns about how defenses play slow WR corps, especially since 2 of those guys get basically no separation at this point. If they sign Hopkins a Parker cut or trade wouldn't surprise me. While he's good, I think you're better off with someone like Bourne who can separate or Thornton with elite deep speed. Otherwise it's gonna get awful crowded in the middle of the field with no real threats, especially given that teams have made it clear they don't think Mac can make the deep out throws with the kind of juice you need to punish that.
True but the simple reality is we’re going to have a slow unit outside of TT this year so might as well get the best possible route runners/hands you can to compensate for that.
 

Mystic Merlin

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True but the simple reality is we’re going to have a slow unit outside of TT this year so might as well get the best possible route runners/hands you can to compensate for that.
At least Bourne gives you a YAC threat. Parker and Hopkins, eh.

That said, sign me up for that ‘problem’ of having to figure out who to keep and how to apportion playing time.
 

BigSoxFan

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At least Bourne gives you a YAC threat. Parker and Hopkins, eh.

That said, sign me up for that ‘problem’ of having to figure out who to keep and how to apportion playing time.
Yeah, if this low probability event actually occurs, I am jettisoning Parker before Bourne. Obviously, downside of doing so is that you're relying on TT to make some kind of leap in year 2, which is obviously possible but far from a given.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory

DJnVa

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He was saying he wasn't sure what day the visit is. Albert Breer reported that Hopkins would be coming in tonight, but that obviously is contingent upon him leaving the building in Nashville without a deal. Bill is probably just being vague by design which is shocking for him I know.
Yeah--I originally just saw the first tweet. After the clarification it seemed better, but figured I'd post it.