2023 NFL Draft Official Game Thread (This is the thread WITH SPOILERS)

Mystic Merlin

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You mean other than Matt Groh saying in his press conference last night that they pretty much knew Washington preferred Forbes? I mean I guess it could be spin but also...

View: https://twitter.com/jeffphowe/status/1651990524574806041?s=20


Makes me think they had Gonzalez and someone like Banks ranked similarly. I'm guessing they were exploring trade-ups in case someone else picked one or the other between 9 and 12, and then when that didn't happen, they were fine with trading out because they were sure they'd have either at 17.
Wow, I missed that; thanks. I am surprised at how much intel they had to work with if that is the case (maybe I shouldn’t be, for all we know Washington told them or they got wind of by happenstance). I doubt it’s spin - Groh doesn’t strike me as that kind of guy.
 

ehaz

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Interesting board on how the league (well, at least some of LZ's sources) view the remaining players. Zierlein and DJ correctly called the Hou trade at #3 FWIW. By the way, if the league really thinks Jayden Reed is a 5th rounder or Hutchinson is a 6th, please give me some of that.

View: https://twitter.com/LanceZierlein/status/1652048763165507584?s=20


I was surprised to see Bergeron as an early 2nd, but apparently there were rumors that some teams saw him as a 1st rounder. Phil Perry is banging the table for Bergeron. Seems like pure speculation from Perry rather than any rumors at this point. I know SMU will hope he's wrong...

View: https://twitter.com/PhilAPerry/status/1652029989909327872?s=20
 

Average Game James

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So my bet is two trade ups, one from 46 into the late-30s for IDK who, then 76 up to 63 to get Steen and complete the annually mandated trade with Andy Reid.
 

JM3

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Looking forward to seeing what weapons BB picks up for Zappe today.
 

Shelterdog

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Wow, I missed that; thanks. I am surprised at how much intel they had to work with if that is the case (maybe I shouldn’t be, for all we know Washington told them or they got wind of by happenstance). I doubt it’s spin - Groh doesn’t strike me as that kind of guy.
You’re point is still right though-there was certainly a risk that something happens and they don’t get the player. But it seems like in this case the risk was low and the reward was worth it
 

SMU_Sox

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I like Bergeron a lot for them at Guard. Right tackle? Maybe? If they had a guard spot open I’d feel a lot better about him. I trust their eval though so if they think he can fit, fine. So be it.
 

luckiestman

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I like Bergeron a lot for them at Guard. Right tackle? Maybe? If they had a guard spot open I’d feel a lot better about him. I trust their eval though so if they think he can fit, fine. So be it.
My man, Jets need a center but I don’t see anyone on your board until 40s and they are listed as combo interior. Any starting caliber centers in this draft?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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So my bet is two trade ups, one from 46 into the late-30s for IDK who, then 76 up to 63 to get Steen and complete the annually mandated trade with Andy Reid.
Just for fun I looked at the trade value charts to try to get a sense of what things would cost the Patriots to move up in rounds 2 and 3. I used pro football reference, which seemed to be about middle. Obviously, this is an inexact science, but fun to think about.

Points to Move Up

46 to 32: 150 points
46 to 38: 80 points
46 to 42: 40 points

76 to 58: 110 points
76 to 62: 74 points
76 to 66: 50 points
76 to 70: 30 points.

Value of Patriots' Picks

107: 80 points
117: 60 points
120: 54 points
135: 39 points
184: 18 points
192: 15 points
Thereafter: Just assume around 10, give or take

So, a move to the bottom of the top of the second round, assuming they give their top 2d round pick, would take at least the top two fourth round picks, and maybe a sixth. A move up near the top of the third round would take pick 107. Etc.

Edit: Had to edit; got confused about rounds. Also, pick 32 has already been used, and the top of the second round is 33, but otherwise . . . close enough.
 

SMU_Sox

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My man, Jets need a center but I don’t see anyone on your board until 40s and they are listed as combo interior. Any starting caliber centers in this draft?
John Michael Schmitz is the bomb. Steve Avila is a great option. Luke Wypler. That Wisconsin center Tippman is a favorite of a lot of people but I just don't love him.
 

luckiestman

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John Michael Schmitz is the bomb. Steve Avila is a great option. Luke Wypler. That Wisconsin center Tippman is a favorite of a lot of people but I just don't love him.
Thanks, I will be looking for these guys. If we’re healthy, C is our biggest need.
 

JM3

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Just for fun I looked at the trade value charts to try to get a sense of what things would cost the Patriots to move up in rounds 2 and 3. I used pro football reference, which seemed to be about middle. Obviously, this is an inexact science, but fun to think about.

Points to Move Up

46 to 32: 150 points
46 to 38: 80 points
46 to 42: 40 points

76 to 58: 110 points
76 to 62: 74 points
76 to 66: 50 points
76 to 70: 30 points.

Value of Patriots' Picks

107: 80 points
117: 60 points
120: 54 points
135: 39 points
184: 18 points
192: 15 points
Thereafter: Just assume around 10, give or take

So, a move to the bottom of the second round, assuming they give their top 3d round pick, would take at least the top two fourth round picks, and maybe a sixth. A move up near the top of the third round would take pick 107. Etc.
Probably an unpopular opinion, but I think I'd mostly rather they let the draft come to them. It's a deep draft, we could use lots of good young players, & it's not an exact science.

I won't be upset if they move up for someone who is already past where they probably should have been taken (like if they were trying to move up for Nolan Smith yesterday), but I don't enjoy it when they seem to be doing it for the sake of getting some random like the Asiasi/Keene types.

Take more swings. A lot of guys on the roster are pretty fungible & an infusion of good young cheap depth leaves more $ to pursue FA talent.
 

OldeBeanTowne

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If they like Mauch's potential, I'd grab him at 46. If they believe they can drop down and still get him, I hope they do that.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Probably an unpopular opinion, but I think I'd mostly rather they let the draft come to them. It's a deep draft, we could use lots of good young players, & it's not an exact science.

I won't be upset if they move up for someone who is already past where they probably should have been taken (like if they were trying to move up for Nolan Smith yesterday), but I don't enjoy it when they seem to be doing it for the sake of getting some random like the Asiasi/Keene types.

Take more swings. A lot of guys on the roster are pretty fungible & an infusion of good young cheap depth leaves more $ to pursue FA talent.
Halfway through the exercise, I thought to myself, what the fuck are you doing here? The Patriots aren't moving up.
 

JM3

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Halfway through the exercise, I thought to myself, what the fuck are you doing here? The Patriots aren't moving up.
I mean, they definitely could. 2 years ago they traded 46, 122 & 139 to get 38 & draft Christian Barmore.
 

JM3

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Looking at that trade the Bengals ended up drafting Jackson Carman, Tyler Shelvin & D'Ante Smith, so it seems to have worked out just fine.
 

DJnVa

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Drawing this stuff out is even worse in the 2nd round...

just announce picks.
 

JM3

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Yeah... they did in '18, '19 & '20, too (Dawson, Joejuan & Uche).
The Dawson trade was with the Bucs - 56 for 63 & 117 (Carlton Davis & Jordan Whitehead...yikes).

The Joejuan trade was with the Rams - 45 for 56 & 101 (Mecole Hardman & Yodny Cajuste - Rams traded up to 97, long story).

The Uche trade was with with the Ravens - 60 & 129 (Cameron Clarke) for 71 & 98 (Justin Madubuike & Malik Harrison).

So...2 for 4 in that 4 year stretch.
 

Cellar-Door

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I think my ideal night for them, ignoring names or even positions is:
Take 1 player at 46, take a player at 76, and use the 4ths to get into the 3rd for another. I'd be really happy with 3 picks between 32 and 95.