2023 Draft Fits

SMU_Sox

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I think Mayer is generally considered the top TE...

Gronk is a pretty terrible comp for Kincaid aside from Pac-12 back injuries. Gronk was big, strong and a good blocker who had receiving chops.

Kincaid is a much closer comp to the other TE we drafted that year.
He is closer to Hernandez but I wouldn't comp him to him. He plays like a slightly smaller Kelce.

Mayer is not a lot of people's TE1. He isn't Lance Z's, Ledyards, mine, Matt Waldman's, PFF's, etc. TBH I think he is one of the most overrated prospects in the draft this year.

Isn't he also a comp for Kelce? That's pretty attractive. I still have love for JSN, but Kincaid would also be a very interesting fit if they go skill in R1.
Yes you got it!
 

SMU_Sox

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Oh and Lukas Van Ness is visiting too, another top edge prospect.
Tyler Steen a late day 2 early 3 versatile OL prospect is visiting as well.

We’re seeing OL day 1- 2-3 guys, edges day 1, 2, 3, corners (Cam Smith) day 2, and day 1-2 WRs and TEs who really are WRs.
 

SMU_Sox

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I just mentioned Cam Smith because he is a newly reported corner visit. We already knew about Forbes. Both dudes are ballhawks.
 

j44thor

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View: https://twitter.com/adamschefter/status/1646196619971379235?s=46&t=kvYWuq6n2wZg-KCGv0fpWg


My #1 offensive player in the draft grade wise and a fantastic fit for the Patriots, Dalton Kincaid is visiting next week.
You have Kincaid with a higher grade than Bijan? That is interesting, are you that high on Kincaid or lower than consensus on Bijan?
Everything I've read is that there is Bijan and everyone else as far as skill position (non QB) goes. He is the most heralded RB to come out in several years going back to Saquon. Obviously RBs aren't valued as highly in the draft but he seems to possess the highest floor with an extremely high ceiling as well.
 

Justthetippett

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You have Kincaid with a higher grade than Bijan? That is interesting, are you that high on Kincaid or lower than consensus on Bijan?
Everything I've read is that there is Bijan and everyone else as far as skill position (non QB) goes. He is the most heralded RB to come out in several years going back to Saquon. Obviously RBs aren't valued as highly in the draft but he seems to possess the highest floor with an extremely high ceiling as well.
To what extent do grades account for positional injury risk? Bijan is a beast, but like Saquon he'll take a beating almost every play and like Saquon (well, hopefully not), he'll likely miss time. If grades are a way for teams to assess BPA, I would think they'd need to account for this.
 

SMU_Sox

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You have Kincaid with a higher grade than Bijan? That is interesting, are you that high on Kincaid or lower than consensus on Bijan?
Everything I've read is that there is Bijan and everyone else as far as skill position (non QB) goes. He is the most heralded RB to come out in several years going back to Saquon. Obviously RBs aren't valued as highly in the draft but he seems to possess the highest floor with an extremely high ceiling as well.
LOL. I completely forgot Bijan. 2nd highest!
 

OldeBeanTowne

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Well I wouldn't mind Ekeler on the Pats and they offered, so I said sure. Forgot to note the terms. The Baltimore 2024 2nd is nice too. About 4-5 too many picks, but I didn't try to combine later picks to move up for a specific player. Just accepted several offers to trade out and took BPA I liked best. Plenty of potential talent on both sides.
63414634156341663417

Edit: wrong thread. Sorry.
 
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SMU_Sox

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Well, I think I found the two running backs they need. Eric Gray is basically James White 2.0 and Tiyon Evans is the gap/power Rham backup/heir we need.

I don't have cutups of Eric Gray but please for the love of all the football gods check out my clips of Tiyon:

View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1646740909172588545?s=20



I posted 2-3 clips of him in pass pro and blocking. Why? Because he wants to destroy you as a runner and as a pass protector and as a blocker. That is important to the Patriots.
 

j44thor

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What about Roschon Johnson? I've heard he is the best in pass pro in the class and also contributes significantly on ST. Seems like the perfect Patriot.
 

SMU_Sox

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I am looking at him tonight or this weekend.

Have to post this somewhere though because...

63500


Matt Waldman liked 2 of my tweets so I can die happy now. :)

View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1647014858242629633?s=20


Waldman liked my Kendre Miller thread. He isn't quite a fit here but he could be. Right now he is more of a fantastic zone runner. He just doesn't have the timing and pace and knows how to follow the blocks for stuff like counter. He gets too far behind his blockers. He sometimes gets it right but you can tell he is much more comfortable with zone. The thing is he is so good in the open field and at the second level and has such exceptional traits FOR gap/power that it's not that hard a fix. It is a lot harder to learn how to be a better zone runner than gap runner. So in that respect he could be a fit.
 

OldeBeanTowne

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That's interesting @SMU_Sox and a reminder that each position is multifaceted requiring different traits, techniques, and sometimes attitude as you demonstrate with those clips of Evans. Thanks for sharing your insight.

I asked in the other thread, but am wondering whether we will see a return to the use of the fullback position under O'Brien. He did use a FB in New England before, but should the expectation be that the offense will be more like the Alabama offense that Jones ran with an RPO focus?

I found this old article that briefly discusses O'Brien's tendency to use a FB, but the game and O'Brien have certainly changed significantly since then.

I ask in the context of the possibility of the Pats drafting Luepke, but I mentioned Christopher Elmore (obviously a very different type/quality of prospect) from Syracuse a few years ago who, given his injury history, would be someone they could target as a UDFA, if he has any chance of playing in the NFL. Given his versatility I was thinking he may be someone who could block well in the backfield as well as the end of the line.

Your pulling of unnoticed prospects to review made me think of Elmore. A deeper cut for sure. Wonder if you have watched any of his tape? Certainly aren't any readily available highlight reels of him out there.

A good article and interview with his coach, focusing on Rhino's selflessness in being willing to move to guard and his versatility as a player. Mentions him as a potential big FB or blocking TE (certainly a need).
 

rodderick

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Ferm Sheller

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I guess I don't understand how Richardson is ranked higher than Young and Stroud on that chart when they both have higher grades.
 

Shelterdog

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great list. As always I’m perplexed by the grading system-for example I know a 7.99 means something but it sure what exactly
 

Shelterdog

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If you click on the right tab on SMU’s list it has definitions of the different grades.
Right, and he used a pretty common system, i just find the draft grading systems to be non intuitive. LIke they aren't really numerical grades, where a 7.5 is slightly better than a 7.49 and sligthly worse than a 7.51 or whatever, you're using the numbers as shothand for broader concepts.
 

ehaz

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View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mcM0AcvSUtXDPeyH57sDryd2LXrestflaQM6AsqSxFY/edit?usp=sharing


Finished my big board.

I still have to do positional adjustments and patriots fits. I will get the positional adjustments and Patriots fits done in the next day. Then onto the writing for superlatives.
Great work, thanks! I was just about to ask how you viewed the glut of big Day 2/3 corners that folks seem to have very differing valuations on based on which big board you're looking at, like Brents, Terell Smith, Rezjon, Cory Trice, Jaylon Jones, Darius Rush, Moss, etc. Guess this answers it! Interesting to see you're much higher on Smith and lower on Trice compared to others. Is there any of these guys you view as a particularly good potential scheme fit?
 

SMU_Sox

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I guess I don't understand how Richardson is ranked higher than Young and Stroud on that chart when they both have higher grades.
7.75s and 7.99s are basically high ceiling vs high floor plays. A guy with a ceiling like Richardson can go ahead of a 7.99 guy. I’ll stack them in the order I like. 7.99s can have a high ceiling too but not always.

7.99s may or may not have pro bowl traits.
 

SMU_Sox

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Great work, thanks! I was just about to ask how you viewed the glut of big Day 2/3 corners that folks seem to have very differing valuations on based on which big board you're looking at, like Brents, Terell Smith, Rezjon, Cory Trice, Jaylon Jones, Darius Rush, Moss, etc. Guess this answers it! Interesting to see you're much higher on Smith and lower on Trice compared to others. Is there any of these guys you view as a particularly good potential scheme fit?
Brents might be best as a safety. I think he’s scheme versatile but don’t put him on a burner. He’s your bigger 4.5s matchup. Trice I just don’t see the fluidity for press-man. I think he’s press-zone all day. Darius Rush might also be a FS but I like him in press-man or press-zone. Terell Smith is another press-man or press-zone guy who might be a FS. I think he has the fluidity for press-man though. Moss is a zone corner but probably a better FS or slot. Jaylon Jones is another press-zone, C2, zone guy.
 

SMU_Sox

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Right, and he used a pretty common system, i just find the draft grading systems to be non intuitive. LIke they aren't really numerical grades, where a 7.5 is slightly better than a 7.49 and sligthly worse than a 7.51 or whatever, you're using the numbers as shothand for broader concepts.
The system tells you what a prospect projects to be. Sometimes guys are a certain grade because they have a lot of boom bust to them. Like Jonathan Mingo has the talent to be a quality starter but also is pretty raw and could bust. So he ends up down the middle as a functional starter. What sort of system do you think captures their projection better? Always curious to look at other ways. I like my system better than just giving a round grade.
 

Ferm Sheller

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7.75s and 7.99s are basically high ceiling vs high floor plays. A guy with a ceiling like Richardson can go ahead of a 7.99 guy. I’ll stack them in the order I like. 7.99s can have a high ceiling too but not always.

7.99s may or may not have pro bowl traits.
Thanks for the explanation -- I figured you had a good one, just didn't know what it was.
 

j44thor

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Appreciate all the hard work you put into this @SMU_Sox I also have to admit that you were the one that turned me onto Rhamondre a couple seasons ago so I don't take your RB ratings lightly. That said I find it interesting that you are significantly higher on Zach Evans than most and a lot lower on Zach Charbonnet than anyone else I've seen ranking skill players, and I follow a lot. General consensus is that Charbonnet is closer to Gibbs than what I'll call the mid tier of RBs which includes Evans, Miller, Roschon, Spears, Achane, Bigsby, Gray et all.

Just curious what stood out to you about Evans and what gave you pause with Charbonnet who a lot think is the second safest RB in the class behind Bijan, not highest ceiling but highest floor.
 

Shelterdog

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The system tells you what a prospect projects to be. Sometimes guys are a certain grade because they have a lot of boom bust to them. Like Jonathan Mingo has the talent to be a quality starter but also is pretty raw and could bust. So he ends up down the middle as a functional starter. What sort of system do you think captures their projection better? Always curious to look at other ways. I like my system better than just giving a round grade.
Maybe just use the short written description rather than a number? There's nothing wrong with that shorthand the issue is whether your 7.99 means something to someone who uses a different system. (Parcells talks about the Kilroy system he used with grades from 2.0 to 9.9 plus a numerical grade for example https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/nfl-draft/how-type-grading-system-allows-nfl-teams-to-limit-drafting-mistakes/ -- so your 7.99 doesn't mean the same thing as a 7.99 in his system).
 

SMU_Sox

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Appreciate all the hard work you put into this @SMU_Sox I also have to admit that you were the one that turned me onto Rhamondre a couple seasons ago so I don't take your RB ratings lightly. That said I find it interesting that you are significantly higher on Zach Evans than most and a lot lower on Zach Charbonnet than anyone else I've seen ranking skill players, and I follow a lot. General consensus is that Charbonnet is closer to Gibbs than what I'll call the mid tier of RBs which includes Evans, Miller, Roschon, Spears, Achane, Bigsby, Gray et all.

Just curious what stood out to you about Evans and what gave you pause with Charbonnet who a lot think is the second safest RB in the class behind Bijan, not highest ceiling but highest floor.
I like Zach Charbonnet - he is a top 75 player when you don't adjust for positions. That being said I don't think there is anything elite about his game. I would be fine with him from 57-75 in that range. These rankings are ranges. The difference between a 7 and a 6.99 is slim. Think of him more as in that range. Evans imo could be a top 10 RB in the league especially in a gap scheme. Waldman likes Evans a lot too.

Rankings are more of an inexact process. These aren't to be taken too literally.

Keep in mind I was one of the highest boards on Kenneth Walker II too. I think I was 2nd or 3rd highest. Evans has the burst, power, balance, and vision to be special. Charbonnet doesn't have the same level of traits. I like Charbonnet better in zone too FWIW.

Check out some Evans highlights:

View: https://twitter.com/JohnALimberakis/status/1648791556751589383?s=20



I am not afraid to buck the consensus with RBs.
 

SMU_Sox

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Also, tbh people are really bad at watching RBs. I mean Evans is a clear gap scheme fit and runs better in gap and you have a bunch of analysts thinking he's a zone guy. SMH. I think he's versatile but better in gap and it should be fairly obvious too.
 

SMU_Sox

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Bottom line for this draft is it has a ton of good RB fits for the Pats day 1, 2, and 3! I’ll provide plenty of detail when I get my superlative columns written.
 

Cellar-Door

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Bottom line for this draft is it has a ton of good RB fits for the Pats day 1, 2, and 3! I’ll provide plenty of detail when I get my superlative columns written.
I'm blanking on who it was, I think it was Jeremiah or Brugler basically was saying... this is a really good RB class, but also there are a lot of good RBs in the league, and much of the league doesn't want to invest early picks in RBs because they plan to only have them 4 years... so there are going to be really good RBs available in the 4th-7th
 

rodderick

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ElcaballitoMVP

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Bottom line for this draft is it has a ton of good RB fits for the Pats day 1, 2, and 3! I’ll provide plenty of detail when I get my superlative columns written.
I see you're pretty high on AT Perry. Apologies if I missed any posts talking about him, but what did you like most about him and could you see them taking him in R2?
 

mauf

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The move up for Levis would be significantly more manageable than a move up to get Baker, though.
For sure.

I suspect that, like a lot of people, the Pats thought Allen would go early, and Mayfield would go around where Allen did (#7), which incidentally is about where Levis is projected to go.
 

Justthetippett

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For sure.

I suspect that, like a lot of people, the Pats thought Allen would go early, and Mayfield would go around where Allen did (#7), which incidentally is about where Levis is projected to go.
I could see Levis dropping to 14. Opinions seem pretty split on him. In a shock of shocks he might even be QB5 behind Hooker.
 

SMU_Sox

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Rumors officially coming out about Darnell Wright and character concerns. I’ll just leave it as I’m not surprised.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he were off several teams boards too.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Rumors officially coming out about Darnell Wright and character concerns. I’ll just leave it as I’m not surprised.

I wouldn’t be surprised if he were off several teams boards too.
I can't say I'm surprised either. He DMd a Bengals fan this for having the gall to say he's a RT:

1682014019184.png
 

Rudy's Curve

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That's not awesome but also (unfortunately) not out of character for a lot of college students. And didn't he subsequently apologize? Not excusing it but is there something more that is taking him off of draft boards?
He and Willie made amends. Maybe a lot of college students are like that, but I'm not sure it's the best look for a projected first rounder to be name searching and sending unsolicited DMs to random people calling them a dickeater for simply having a football opinion. To each their own I suppose.
 

Cellar-Door

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That's not awesome but also (unfortunately) not out of character for a lot of college students. And didn't he subsequently apologize? Not excusing it but is there something more that is taking him off of draft boards?
I don't think his DMs are the concern.

I do know people were circulating Bob McGinn's substack article, where he quotes scouts on the O-line prospects and Wright had a LOT of very strong stuff from scouts about him being a guy who doesn't work hard, just does the minimum, character concerns, lazy... it was basically every quote that was 'tough to tell, great talent, terrible attitude, lazy, but... also showed good performances this year'
 

SMU_Sox

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I don't think his DMs are the concern.

I do know people were circulating Bob McGinn's substack article, where he quotes scouts on the O-line prospects and Wright had a LOT of very strong stuff from scouts about him being a guy who doesn't work hard, just does the minimum, character concerns, lazy... it was basically every quote that was 'tough to tell, great talent, terrible attitude, lazy, but... also showed good performances this year'
These aren’t recent rumors either. They’ve just been kept hush-hush for a while. No surprise we hear them leak closer to the draft. TBH I was pretty crushed because i loved his tape. To me this takes him off their board. They don’t need another guy with a questionable work ethic.
 

Cellar-Door

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These aren’t recent rumors either. They’ve just been kept hush-hush for a while. No surprise we hear them leak closer to the draft. TBH I was pretty crushed because i loved his tape. To me this takes him off their board. They don’t need another guy with a questionable work ethic.
yeah, i love the idea of him, but it also makes me wonder about his being terrible the year before. Makes you wonder, did he have real growth year to year (and switching sides, though he wants to switch back) or was he just trying a lot harder because he was given a day 3 grade last year, and knew a good year and combine could get him drafted round 1 make him millions, and once he's drafted he'll be a guy who is happy to be there and not willing to put the work in.
 

pappymojo

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Any thoughts/insight into Jeremy Cooper (Cincinnati), Derek Parish (Houston) & Brayden Willis (Oklahoma)? Three names I haven't seen mentioned before reading this article:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/2023-nfl-draft-superlatives/

Best in Pass Pro: OT Broderick Jones (Georgia)

A gifted athlete for his size, while there’s some technical stuff apparent to improve, Jones’ physical profile allows him to mirror and match any type of edge rusher that’s in his line of sight. He didn’t allow a single sack in 2022 and gave up just 17 total pressures in 635 snaps in pass pro during his career for the Bulldogs.

*IOL Jeremy Cooper (Cincinnati) is also a name to note. He allowed just two sacks on 969 snaps in pass pro during his tenure for the Bearcats.

Most Versatile: Derek Parish (Houston) & Brayden Willis (Oklahoma)

Parish: An edge threat, core special teamer, and linebacker—Parish may play both ways at the NFL level. He worked out as a FB at Houston’s Pro Day, and after running a mid 4.5s 40 at 240 pounds, he’s one of the unique chess pieces in the 2023 NFL Draft class that can fill a variety of roles.

Willis: Whether you need a Y or F tight end, an H-back, or, heck, even a QB (see Nebraska game), Willis can do it all. TE1 for the Sooners this fall, he can block his tail off, flex out in space, and align in the backfield as a primary ball carrier—he just flat-out creates mismatch nightmares for opposing defenses. He fits the modern game and will be an excellent addition to a team that utilizes unique personnel packages.
On TDN's player rankings, only one of the three got a write-up:

https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/brayden-willis-e59dd312-ad3b-4e48-a256-3d53b12b8d00/
 

SMU_Sox

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"There's some technical stuff to improve"? TBH with you TDN last year wrote about a guard and said in the profile that he could and had also played tackle. He didn't. This is the same draft site that said Evans was a zone only runner and who had his success running zone. It was the opposite. Yes he had some success in zone but he had much more success in gap which he ran 50-55% of the time. TDN, minus Kyle and Joe, is just not good quality analysis.

Brod Jones of the top 5 tackles is the worst right now in pass pro. He is underdeveloped with his hands and he has a bad anchor - lets guys get under him and bull-rush him. Going by total pressures given up when a zillion prospects in college don't give up many pressures is asinine. Hell even UDFA prospects can hardly give up pressures but when you are in a run-heavy RPO offense and rarely actually have true pass sets it happens.

Saying Brod has some technical stuff to improve is not helpful. That to me is someone faking it. Here is what his issues are. For one he doesn't have his hands in the right position, he is late with his punches, and he has sloppy hand placement, usually, like many college tackles, wide. He is prone to oversetting. Now luckily he has the recovery to shut down inside counters but against the best edge rushers that won't be the case. He is sloppy against speed rushers - in particular he doesn't use his hands properly to clear them around the QB. And he gets himself out of position which leaves him vulnerable to redirects to the pocket. Had he played with a less mobile QB with bad pocket presence we wouldn't be hearing about his lack of sacks and/or pressures. Bennett often stepped up to bail him out so it didn't even technically count as a hurry. Aside from those issues he is inexperienced dealing with advanced rushers and doesn't have the answers to combos. Lacks counters.

Brod has the athleticism to be elite in pass pro but pass pro is SO much more than athleticism.

I don't like slandering sites but The Athletic, Bleacher Report, Brandon Thorn's substack, Matt Waldman, PFF to a degree, Lance Z, Dane Brugler, DJ, Bucky, Ben Solak, Nate Tice, and so many other guys produce great content. TDN really misses the mark and you can get a lot of bad takes there. I used to value their insight but these days I steer clear of anything that isn't Kyle or Joe because I have found it to be inaccurate.
 

SMU_Sox

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yeah, i love the idea of him, but it also makes me wonder about his being terrible the year before. Makes you wonder, did he have real growth year to year (and switching sides, though he wants to switch back) or was he just trying a lot harder because he was given a day 3 grade last year, and knew a good year and combine could get him drafted round 1 make him millions, and once he's drafted he'll be a guy who is happy to be there and not willing to put the work in.
100% with you my friend. I am so bummed about him because finding and watching him was a joy but the number of different people saying it is disturbing.

OT is tough this year. I think Harrison, Jones, and PJJ are fits. There are schemes Skor could start in but not theirs imo. I don't love the tackles at the top though. They have more holes to their games or ?s than the other prospects at other positions.

I think Steen, Morris, Asim Richards, Carter Warren, and to a lesser degree Blake Freeland are the guys I would look to later on.
 

j44thor

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Anyone that says Brod Jones is the best in pass pro didn't watch his tape against BJ Ojulari who took him to school. While he might not have technically given up a sack to him, BJ was consistently in the backfield and had Brod off balance most of the game. He has great physical traits but can those be coached up to translate into on the field production remains to be seen. Definitely a shame to hear that about Wright who all but eliminated the top edge rusher this season when he went up against Will Anderson, some of the most impressive film you will see. If NE trades back in the 1st and Wright is still there in the 20s I think he would be worth the gamble, perhaps he simply plays up to his level of competition and wasn't challenged enough at the college level. We saw what he could do against the best edge in college.