He is closer to Hernandez but I wouldn't comp him to him. He plays like a slightly smaller Kelce.
Yes you got it!
You have Kincaid with a higher grade than Bijan? That is interesting, are you that high on Kincaid or lower than consensus on Bijan?
To what extent do grades account for positional injury risk? Bijan is a beast, but like Saquon he'll take a beating almost every play and like Saquon (well, hopefully not), he'll likely miss time. If grades are a way for teams to assess BPA, I would think they'd need to account for this.
Awesome work as always! Boy, I thought I loved Anthony Richardson but you might have me beat!
If you click on the right tab on SMU’s list it has definitions of the different grades.
Right, and he used a pretty common system, i just find the draft grading systems to be non intuitive. LIke they aren't really numerical grades, where a 7.5 is slightly better than a 7.49 and sligthly worse than a 7.51 or whatever, you're using the numbers as shothand for broader concepts.
Great work, thanks! I was just about to ask how you viewed the glut of big Day 2/3 corners that folks seem to have very differing valuations on based on which big board you're looking at, like Brents, Terell Smith, Rezjon, Cory Trice, Jaylon Jones, Darius Rush, Moss, etc. Guess this answers it! Interesting to see you're much higher on Smith and lower on Trice compared to others. Is there any of these guys you view as a particularly good potential scheme fit?
7.75s and 7.99s are basically high ceiling vs high floor plays. A guy with a ceiling like Richardson can go ahead of a 7.99 guy. I’ll stack them in the order I like. 7.99s can have a high ceiling too but not always.
Brents might be best as a safety. I think he’s scheme versatile but don’t put him on a burner. He’s your bigger 4.5s matchup. Trice I just don’t see the fluidity for press-man. I think he’s press-zone all day. Darius Rush might also be a FS but I like him in press-man or press-zone. Terell Smith is another press-man or press-zone guy who might be a FS. I think he has the fluidity for press-man though. Moss is a zone corner but probably a better FS or slot. Jaylon Jones is another press-zone, C2, zone guy.
The system tells you what a prospect projects to be. Sometimes guys are a certain grade because they have a lot of boom bust to them. Like Jonathan Mingo has the talent to be a quality starter but also is pretty raw and could bust. So he ends up down the middle as a functional starter. What sort of system do you think captures their projection better? Always curious to look at other ways. I like my system better than just giving a round grade.
Thanks for the explanation -- I figured you had a good one, just didn't know what it was.
Maybe just use the short written description rather than a number? There's nothing wrong with that shorthand the issue is whether your 7.99 means something to someone who uses a different system. (Parcells talks about the Kilroy system he used with grades from 2.0 to 9.9 plus a numerical grade for example https://www.the33rdteam.com/category/nfl-draft/how-type-grading-system-allows-nfl-teams-to-limit-drafting-mistakes/ -- so your 7.99 doesn't mean the same thing as a 7.99 in his system).
I like Zach Charbonnet - he is a top 75 player when you don't adjust for positions. That being said I don't think there is anything elite about his game. I would be fine with him from 57-75 in that range. These rankings are ranges. The difference between a 7 and a 6.99 is slim. Think of him more as in that range. Evans imo could be a top 10 RB in the league especially in a gap scheme. Waldman likes Evans a lot too.
I'm blanking on who it was, I think it was Jeremiah or Brugler basically was saying... this is a really good RB class, but also there are a lot of good RBs in the league, and much of the league doesn't want to invest early picks in RBs because they plan to only have them 4 years... so there are going to be really good RBs available in the 4th-7th
The move up for Levis would be significantly more manageable than a move up to get Baker, though.
I see you're pretty high on AT Perry. Apologies if I missed any posts talking about him, but what did you like most about him and could you see them taking him in R2?
For sure.
I could see Levis dropping to 14. Opinions seem pretty split on him. In a shock of shocks he might even be QB5 behind Hooker.
That's not awesome but also (unfortunately) not out of character for a lot of college students. And didn't he subsequently apologize? Not excusing it but is there something more that is taking him off of draft boards?
He and Willie made amends. Maybe a lot of college students are like that, but I'm not sure it's the best look for a projected first rounder to be name searching and sending unsolicited DMs to random people calling them a dickeater for simply having a football opinion. To each their own I suppose.
I don't think his DMs are the concern.
These aren’t recent rumors either. They’ve just been kept hush-hush for a while. No surprise we hear them leak closer to the draft. TBH I was pretty crushed because i loved his tape. To me this takes him off their board. They don’t need another guy with a questionable work ethic.
yeah, i love the idea of him, but it also makes me wonder about his being terrible the year before. Makes you wonder, did he have real growth year to year (and switching sides, though he wants to switch back) or was he just trying a lot harder because he was given a day 3 grade last year, and knew a good year and combine could get him drafted round 1 make him millions, and once he's drafted he'll be a guy who is happy to be there and not willing to put the work in.
On TDN's player rankings, only one of the three got a write-up:
100% with you my friend. I am so bummed about him because finding and watching him was a joy but the number of different people saying it is disturbing.
