2023 Bullpen

Youkilis vs Wild

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It is a silly sample size. However, it does include four opener/bullpen games so it's a more significant chunk of the innings than you might otherwise expect a bullpen to cover over an eight game stretch.

Still relatively meaningless though.
Highlighting the quality of the eight-game run is fine, ranking it against the rest of the league seems silly and arbitrary. But it really has been quite a run.
 
I'm a bit concerned about Jansen as the team's closer. Overall his performance this year has been fine, but there are some troubling undercurrents:

  • Jansen with 0-1 days rest: 10 IP, 9.00 ERA, 2.0 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 2.52 K/BB
  • Jansen with 2+ days rest: 23.1 IP, .77 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.41 K/9, 2.89 K/BB
I get that this is small sample size but the results are very stark. Thus far this season Jansen has been basically untouchable on 2+ days rest and absolutely terrible on 0-1 days rest. I'd love for this to be just random noise, but I have to wonder if Jansen is really viable as the sole closer in a playoff situation. Over the course of the regular season his incredible performance on 2+ days of rest does a reasonable job of balancing out the bad outings, but in the playoffs he could easily be called upon to pitch multiple games in a row and the team can't really afford that risk. Luckily the team has a couple of arms that could (if healthy) step in and close some games out. But would it be viable to have Jansen and, say, Houck trading off closer duties depending on the rest situation? Or would that be too damaging to morale?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Assuming that Jacques goes for the first man back, and then Bleier, I guess. After that, do they keep Llovera or Murphy? Will they be comfortable with just one lefty in the pen? (Although I guess Joely could theoretically come back at some point..:)
 

scottyno

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Assuming that Jacques goes for the first man back, and then Bleier, I guess. After that, do they keep Llovera or Murphy? Will they be comfortable with just one lefty in the pen? (Although I guess Joely could theoretically come back at some point..:)
They'll have several more trips through the rotation by then, if Murphy keeps throwing 3-4 innings with 0-1 run every time through they can't send him down
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They're already operating with two opener/bulk games per time through the rotation. They can continue that with Sale and Houck until they're built back up. Trying to build Whitlock back up as well would mean a full time starter (presumably Crawford) would be changed to a bulk guy and eventually a regular reliever. Why do that when Crawford is stretched out and pitching well where he is. Whitlock can (and likely will) go back to the rotation next season.
 

scottyno

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I don’t disagree but he’s got options whereas other guys don’t.
Depending on when the last guy is ready they may be able to just paper move Murphy down to Worcester the day after one of his bulk appearances and then call him back up when rosters expand. Though I'm not sure if the rule that once you send a guy down you can't call him back up for X days applies to roster expansion or not.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Depending on when the last guy is ready they may be able to just paper move Murphy down to Worcester the day after one of his bulk appearances and then call him back up when rosters expand. Though I'm not sure if the rule that once you send a guy down you can't call him back up for X days applies to roster expansion or not.
I don't believe the rules regarding optional assignments change for September. Murphy (or whoever) has to be down for a minimum of 10 days unless brought back to replace a player put on the IL.
 

chrisfont9

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So I wonder exactly what that means. We've heard that Sale is likely so start as an Opener, so maybe it's Sale/Pivetta and then Houck takes the other spot when he's ready
That would be my guess. And I don't think this is anything more than circumstantial. I would expect Whitlock to get built back up to starting next spring unless they've really changed their mind about how what his body can handle, or they bring in two guys this winter for rotation spots and someone gets crowded out.
 

donutogre

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EDIT: To be fair I guess Pivetta is technically a reliever while operating more like a starter but still.
Not that Pivetta was very sharp the other day, but I still do not understand why he didn't just start the game like he did five days earlier. He's been good enough for long enough this season (including his start on the 31st) that I don't see why we wouldn't give him the ball to get things going for a while. I know he's a "bulk" guy in one of the two bullpen games right now, but... I don't know. I just do not understand the point of opener strategy when you have a perfectly serviceable starter in the pen who is already mostly pitching like a starter.
 

YTF

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Just bizarre that this team couldn't or wouldn't find at least one more starter at the deadline. Really does feel like Bloom et al threw in the towel.

EDIT: To be fair I guess Pivetta is technically a reliever while operating more like a starter but still.
I've ask this question multiple times last week and I'll pose it to you. You have Sale, Houck, Whitlock and whatever new guy Chaim brings in. What four pitcher come off the current roster to make room?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I've ask this question multiple times last week and I'll pose it to you. You have Sale, Houck, Whitlock and whatever new guy Chaim brings in. What four pitcher come off the current roster to make room?
Llovera, Bleier, Murphy, and Robertson?

This also assumes that all those guys come back before anyone else gets hurt.

Sox have needed at least one starter for months, and got by for a while….until they didn’t. They banked on being able to make it until the reinforcements returned, which probably would have been ok had they not been swept by the Jays..but they were.

Still not out of it, of course, but the last week have made things a lot more difficult.
 

YTF

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Llovera, Bleier, Murphy, and Robertson?

This also assumes that all those guys come back before anyone else gets hurt.

Sox have needed at least one starter for months, and got by for a while….until they didn’t. They banked on being able to make it until the reinforcements returned, which probably would have been ok had they not been swept by the Jays..but they were.

Still not out of it, of course, but the last week have made things a lot more difficult.
I think moving Murphy leaves just one lefty in the pen and aside from yesterday, he's been a bright spot.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I was hoping they would have brought up Barraclough for a few starts, but through most of July, they were winning, so it was understandable that they didn't want to change what was working at the time. Now it's stopped working, about a week before any of the reinforcements arrive.
It hasn't helped that Paxton seems like he might have hit a wall: 6.16 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 19 IP in his last 4 starts. He's up to 75 IP which isn't much but it's also more than 3 times the number of big league innings he's pitched over the past 3 years combined.

It would have been great if the 3-man rotation would have scraped together another week or two of success, and the pitching wasn't good against Toronto, but it seemed like most of the losses out west were mostly on the offense, and they are averaging 3 runs scored per game over the last 9 (2-7).
 

JM3

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I was hoping they would have brought up Barraclough for a few starts, but through most of July, they were winning, so it was understandable that they didn't want to change what was working at the time. Now it's stopped working, about a week before any of the reinforcements arrive.
It hasn't helped that Paxton seems like he might have hit a wall: 6.16 ERA, 5.32 FIP, 19 IP in his last 4 starts. He's up to 75 IP which isn't much but it's also more than 3 times the number of big league innings he's pitched over the past 3 years combined.

It would have been great if the 3-man rotation would have scraped together another week or two of success, and the pitching wasn't good against Toronto, but it seemed like most of the losses out west were mostly on the offense, and they are averaging 3 runs scored per game over the last 9 (2-7).
They went with Dinelson Lamet instead of BEAR CLAW.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1688630422098333696
 

The Gray Eagle

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Hmm, I'm skeptical about this one. I know Pedro loves Lamet and the organization seems to like him, but Bear Claw has been getting people out in the minors for a while now and Lamet was horrendous in the majors just a couple months ago, and in his career has only been good in 69 innings in the pandemic season.
Bear Claw has 274 major league innings at a 3.61 ERA, 111 ERA+. In 361 major league innings, Lamet has an ERA a full run higher. He pitched in Colorado, but most of his career he has had SD for a home park, and for his career, he has been worse on the road than at home.

I'm sure Lamet throws harder, it's hard to be optimistic about either guy, but especially him.
Maybe they fixed Lamet and he's closer to pitching like he did in 2020 than in mid-June of this year. I hope.
 

LogansDad

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Hmm, I'm skeptical about this one. I know Pedro loves Lamet and the organization seems to like him, but Bear Claw has been getting people out in the minors for a while now and Lamet was horrendous in the majors just a couple months ago, and in his career has only been good in 69 innings in the pandemic season.
Bear Claw has 274 major league innings at a 3.61 ERA, 111 ERA+. In 361 major league innings, Lamet has an ERA a full run higher. He pitched in Colorado, but most of his career he has had SD for a home park, and for his career, he has been worse on the road than at home.

I'm sure Lamet throws harder, it's hard to be optimistic about either guy, but especially him.
Maybe they fixed Lamet and he's closer to pitching like he did in 2020 than in mid-June of this year. I hope.
I mostly agree with you, but they seem to have gotten Lamet to cut way down on the walks since he came over, so hopefully that translates to the Majors in some way. Barraclough isn't striking anyone out and is walking a lot of people, which, with the Red Sox' defensive woes, seems like a bad combination right now. Maybe once Story gets reacclimated he and Urias will provide some stability up the middle and Barraclough will get a look down the road.
 

chawson

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My sense is that Lamet's upside is higher, and he's two years younger.

Does anyone know if his time in the minors means Lamet's arb4 season would be ours in 2024? Or would he become a UFA?

He was set to become a FA after the 2023 season before being DFA'd by Colorado. I'm not sure whether being sent down set that back. It'd be a long shot to get him all the way back but it'd be interesting if we'd have the option of tendering him a contract (roughly 1/$5.3M) if he somehow is.
 

JM3

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Good, glad they aren't trying to squeeze more out of Lamet and Robertson.

Paging @The Gray Eagle and @JM3 for the start of the BEAR CLAW era.
All BEAR CLAW does is win games (7-0).

He's like the yellow uniforms. You don't know how they work, but they do. Except when they don't.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He pitched a scoreless 1st inning...seems like a bit of an overreaction.

Yeah, it took 29 pitches (20 strikes), & involved 2 hits & a hbp, but seems a bit early to write him off. & he did get a strikeout.
Could easily be explained as rust. He hasn't pitched a game in a month. It would be folly to think he's going to come out and set guys down like he's vintage Pedro in his first outing. It's a rehab assignment, not game 7 of the World Series.
 

JM3

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2nd inning was 1-2-3 with 2 swinging strikeouts & a grounder back to the pitcher.
 

JM3

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He pitched a scoreless 1st inning...seems like a bit of an overreaction.

Yeah, it took 29 pitches (20 strikes), & involved 2 hits & a hbp, but seems a bit early to write him off. & he did get a strikeout.
Whitlock's final line for the day:

2.1 innings, 0 runs, 2 hits, 0 walks, 1 HBP, 3 strikeouts.

46 pitches, 33 strikes.
 

Humphrey

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Good! I don't think Bear Claw could do worse than Lamet. I guess we'll see about that though. :D
I'm glad he is getting a shot in the majors at least.
What was the point of picking Lamet up- he stunk with the Rockies, did they think he'd magically be better here? Granted, I'd insist that the chances be given at AAA and not Boston. Maybe he'll end up there because no one else wants him.
 

joe dokes

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What was the point of picking Lamet up- he stunk with the Rockies, did they think he'd magically be better here? Granted, I'd insist that the chances be given at AAA and not Boston. Maybe he'll end up there because no one else wants him.
If I had to guess, as bad as he's been in 2023, his peripherals before this year didn't scream "can't pitch in majors," and he was dominant as recently as 2020. It was a flier.
 

Rovin Romine

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If I had to guess, as bad as he's been in 2023, his peripherals before this year didn't scream "can't pitch in majors," and he was dominant as recently as 2020. It was a flier.
Sure. But usually, with guys like that you sign them to a MiL deal or if they don't have options, you put them in the back of the pen and try to re-develop them. They picked up Lamet in mid June and had plenty of time to see what he could do at AAA.

But they brought him up for a single bullpen game and then just DFA'd him? It's weird.

If he sucked, why use him at all? To save Brandon Walter 3IP in exchange for a loss? If they thought he had any kind of promise or role, why DFA him after one game?

So you'd have to guess the first right? He was thought of as a punt-the-single-game pitcher and brought up specifically to be used as such?

(I'm assuming there's no off-the-field reason in play here, but the situation does not seem to have any indication of that kind of thing at all.)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Again, they needed a fresh arm that was expendable- someone they could put in the 40 and have no fear of losing- Sale will be coming off the 60 day and replacing someone from the 40 (maybe Barraclough, or Llovera). He pitched and is now unavailable so they moved on to the next guy.

They’ve done the same thing with Zack Littel, Dermody, and Faria (and before that Brandon Brennan, Michael Feliz, Stephen Gonsalves, etc.)
 

Rovin Romine

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Again, they needed a fresh arm that was expendable- someone they could put in the 40 and have no fear of losing- Sale will be coming off the 60 day and replacing someone from the 40 (maybe Barraclough, or Llovera). He pitched and is now unavailable so they moved on to the next guy.

They’ve done the same thing with Zack Littel, Dermody, and Faria (and before that Brandon Brennan, Michael Feliz, Stephen Gonsalves, etc.)
But they needed to win that game.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Typical overreaction on your part. Could the guy finish his first inning without a snarky comment from you? I think of all our returning players Whitlock is probably the furthest away. However by the same token I don't think anyone expected him to have an Immaculate inning or retire the side on 3 pitches after many weeks off. There is something called rust.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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But they needed to win that game.
Defined “needed”. Management has already made it clear that they thought the playoffs were a long shot- and that was well before the recent tailspin. I think they are being realistic about where the team is and their status as an underdog. If you are expecting to see Josh Winckowski and John Schreiber trotting out to the mound in the 5th inning of a game against KC, then I think you are bound to be disappointed.

If a game in early August is a must win, then your team isn’t very good.
 

Rovin Romine

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Defined “needed”. Management has already made it clear that they thought the playoffs were a long shot- and that was well before the recent tailspin. I think they are being realistic about where the team is and their status as an underdog. If you are expecting to see Josh Winckowski and John Schreiber trotting out to the mound in the 5th inning of a game against KC, then I think you are bound to be disappointed.

If a game in early August is a must win, then your team isn’t very good.
Every win counts. You won't have the opportunity to win every game. So you have to try to grab the ones you can regardless of the quality of the opposition.

We may disagree on the tipping point for that - although we'd probably agree it's foolish to waste your best pitchers in the 7th, 8th, and 9th while down by 15 runs.

I happen to think that if you're clawing for a wild-card spot, you don't give up on a 3-2 game against a weak opponent.
 

joe dokes

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Every win counts. You won't have the opportunity to win every game. So you have to try to grab the ones you can regardless of the quality of the opposition.

We may disagree on the tipping point for that - although we'd probably agree it's foolish to waste your best pitchers in the 7th, 8th, and 9th while down by 15 runs.

I happen to think that if you're clawing for a wild-card spot, you don't give up on a 3-2 game against a weak opponent.
I agree that 2-3 is not in any way "unwinnable" and does not deserve "punting," regardless of the opponent. A win's a win these days. But I think some hindsight is also creeping in w/r/t Lamet. Based on his 1st inning of work, which was successful, I'm struggling to see how bringing him back for another was a punt. That's the thing about the expendable crew members. They may "have it" many fewer nights than "good ones" do (that's what makes them expendable), but if it looks like they do "have it" that night I think its ok to go for another inning. They needed 12 outs. Even if Cora was intending to use some or all of the "good" relievers, he was going to have to use someone else to get a few outs after Crawford got knocked out so early.