2023-24 Celtics

benhogan

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Also Grant is in no way a 8th or 9th or 10th guy on just about anyone's roster. He has started nearly 50% of his games played the past 3 years.
Mike lost his fastball a while ago. Grant was a great piece to have on his rookie contract but as soon as he got pricey Brad lost interest. Glad they used his minutes to play guys like Hauser, Kornet & now Tillman.

Not sure what # player Grant would be on this year's Celtics?

I always liked him & thought Grant was a nice deal for Dallas, but seems like even $13MM is too much.
There were some crazy #s thrown around here to resign him in RFA
 
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RorschachsMask

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Tonight is a good example of what @lovegtm means when he’s talking about how much Tatum fucks up other teams defenses. He has 2 assists as of this moment, but has created endless wide open shots.
To get further into this, now that we have the numbers.

Durant defended Tatum for 45 possessions, Tatum went 5-8 with 15 points, 3 assists, and no TO’s. More importantly though, from the late first quarter on, the Suns sent a second man to Tatum pretty much anytime he got the ball or had someone set a pick for him. Because of that, on those 45 possessions, the Celtics scored 71 points, which is just an insane number. He had 12 potential assists, 3 hockey assists, and just made life easy for everyone else.

He defended KD for 37 possessions, in which KD had 4 points, 1 assist, and 1 TO. The Suns scored 34 on those possessions, which is an awesome number for the Celtics, and the benefit of him being able to check KD 1 on 1.
 

InstaFace

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In case we needed more evidence in The People vs Grayson Allen, here he is (probably) fouling Jaylen on a drive to the basket, and then stepping over a prostrate Brown and shoving his leg as he runs by:

edit: having trouble inserting the image, maybe it's too big, whatever, there's the link

Just in case anyone was wondering why he seemed to dunk on Allen a few plays later maybe just a little harder than he needed to, and talk some angry shit in the direction of the crowd just a little longer than you might've thought in a 18-point game. And we know how Jaylen reacts to being touched outside the context of a play in the game - didn't he all but fight somebody (Heat?) earlier in the year when they laid hands on him?
 
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InstaFace

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And they do it all very casually. Haven't seen a "flip the switch" team like this since peak Warriors. They cruise along, then up the intensity on both ends for 5 minutes. If you miss some 3s during that 5 minute stretch, the game is over. If you make them, they do it again in the 4th.
This very brief characterization of how Celtics games go this year - typically shrewd and concise by lovegtm - was really exemplified by last night's game, and really made me recall this post in particular. Phoenix made a lot of shots in the first quarter and had a lead of like 7-8 at times, and were keeping pace with us much of the first half - I was actually surprised we were able to get to halftime up by 5. We all know that Durant hitting 7 in a row isn't some unsustainable thing for him. But then Durant went cold, our D dug in, and suddenly we were up by 20, 95-75. Game over, garbage time incoming, rest of the minutes were academic. I guess PHX went on a mini-run at the start of the 4Q, got it to 13, but not even their Big 3 could keep it up for long enough to make the result in doubt.

79512
(from ESPN)

I really haven't felt this way watching a team since the end of the Tom Brady years. The focus, the ability to raise the level as a group when needed, the attention to detail, the consistency night after night, the imperviousness to an absence or two. What a treat it is.
 

the moops

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In case we needed more evidence in The People vs Grayson Allen, here he is (probably) fouling Jaylen on a drive to the basket, and then stepping over a prostrate Brown and shoving his leg as he runs by:

edit: having trouble inserting the image, maybe it's too big, whatever, there's the link
I think Grayson Allen has the most punchable face in the league, but that play seems ridiculous to get upset over
 

lovegtm

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This very brief characterization of how Celtics games go this year - typically shrewd and concise by lovegtm - was really exemplified by last night's game, and really made me recall this post in particular. Phoenix made a lot of shots in the first quarter and had a lead of like 7-8 at times, and were keeping pace with us much of the first half - I was actually surprised we were able to get to halftime up by 5. We all know that Durant hitting 7 in a row isn't some unsustainable thing for him. But then Durant went cold, our D dug in, and suddenly we were up by 20, 95-75. Game over, garbage time incoming, rest of the minutes were academic. I guess PHX went on a mini-run at the start of the 4Q, got it to 13, but not even their Big 3 could keep it up for long enough to make the result in doubt.

View attachment 79512
(from ESPN)

I really haven't felt this way watching a team since the end of the Tom Brady years. The focus, the ability to raise the level as a group when needed, the attention to detail, the consistency night after night, the imperviousness to an absence or two. What a treat it is.
Yes. People talk about effort and defense a lot, but for me, it's the consistency and attention to detail on offense. They are so methodical that it feels weird in the brief times when they aren't, like against Denver last week (although not in the first matchup; that was just missed shots).
 

InstaFace

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Are you referring to the Duncan Robinson kerfuffle?
Hah, good callback. I think I'm thinking of something else, back in 2023, but maybe I'm not.

I think Grayson Allen has the most punchable face in the league, but that play seems ridiculous to get upset over
I'm not upset about it myself, just hypothesizing that Jaylen might've noticed his foot getting swatted, and thereby found a little something extra for him.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yes. People talk about effort and defense a lot, but for me, it's the consistency and attention to detail on offense. They are so methodical that it feels weird in the brief times when they aren't, like against Denver last week (although not in the first matchup; that was just missed shots).
Within a game, there are definitely defensive effort changes that impact whether they are winning or margin. Big picture I think you and I have been on same page for a while---teh commitment to the right process on offense (getting ball inside/below FT line and then moving around, not quickly jacking threes) is by far the biggest thing they can control/change to impact winning.

To me, when they stick to that disciplined process they win almost every game - they can only lose if they shoot 20% from three or the other team is insanely hot offensively.

When they get lazy on offense they can still win big if they shoot 50% from three, but also can lose to anyone if they shoot poorly.

Good offense means they will win 4 of 7 versus everyone (even Denver). Lazy offense puts them into "it's a make or miss league" territory
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Grayson Allen feels like a body-of-work player much like, say Draymond or CP3 or Beverley or Brooks. Its not hard to see how players might react to seemingly innocuous acts from these types because everyone knows its a matter of time before they try some actual BS. The people on the court are likely going to recognize the start of that before we do.
 

Euclis20

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Hah, good callback. I think I'm thinking of something else, back in 2023, but maybe I'm not.


I'm not upset about it myself, just hypothesizing that Jaylen might've noticed his foot getting swatted, and thereby found a little something extra for him.
My first thought reading your post was this, from the 2022 playoffs against the Bucks:

View: https://twitter.com/hoops_bot/status/1523846487246925824?s=20


And I conflated that with this from last year:

View: https://youtu.be/8ME5nxQNt-A?si=cO0WNXblMYTfBzLF


This plus the full highlight real of dunks that Brown has over Giannis, I get the sense that JB is not all that fond of him.
 

lovegtm

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Within a game, there are definitely defensive effort changes that impact whether they are winning or margin. Big picture I think you and I have been on same page for a while---teh commitment to the right process on offense (getting ball inside/below FT line and then moving around, not quickly jacking threes) is by far the biggest thing they can control/change to impact winning.

To me, when they stick to that disciplined process they win almost every game - they can only lose if they shoot 20% from three or the other team is insanely hot offensively.

When they get lazy on offense they can still win big if they shoot 50% from three, but also can lose to anyone if they shoot poorly.

Good offense means they will win 4 of 7 versus everyone (even Denver). Lazy offense puts them into "it's a make or miss league" territory
I sign off on all the above.

Under Brad, Ime, and last year's CJM, I thought that consistent effort and attention to detail on offense was, by far, the biggest issue with Jay-led groups. Those days are over now, and it almost doesn't matter whether all the acquisitions (Jrue, KP) play or not: it's a culture now.
 

Deathofthebambino

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This very brief characterization of how Celtics games go this year - typically shrewd and concise by lovegtm - was really exemplified by last night's game, and really made me recall this post in particular. Phoenix made a lot of shots in the first quarter and had a lead of like 7-8 at times, and were keeping pace with us much of the first half - I was actually surprised we were able to get to halftime up by 5. We all know that Durant hitting 7 in a row isn't some unsustainable thing for him. But then Durant went cold, our D dug in, and suddenly we were up by 20, 95-75. Game over, garbage time incoming, rest of the minutes were academic. I guess PHX went on a mini-run at the start of the 4Q, got it to 13, but not even their Big 3 could keep it up for long enough to make the result in doubt.

View attachment 79512
(from ESPN)

I really haven't felt this way watching a team since the end of the Tom Brady years. The focus, the ability to raise the level as a group when needed, the attention to detail, the consistency night after night, the imperviousness to an absence or two. What a treat it is.
When the C's get up 20 on teams, it's so, so damn hard for them to come all the way back.

Opposing teams have to start scoring a LOT in a short period of time against a very good defense.

Now, even if that defense isn't locked in and giving up points on possession after possession, they still have to hope the C's offense also goes cold, and well, this C's offense doesn't really go cold very often for long periods of time.

It really takes a cosmic turn of events for a team to come back and beat them like Cleveland did a week or two ago.
 

bakahump

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Grayson Allen feels like a body-of-work player much like, say Draymond or CP3 or Beverley or Brooks. Its not hard to see how players might react to seemingly innocuous acts from these types because everyone knows its a matter of time before they try some actual BS. The people on the court are likely going to recognize the start of that before we do.
I wish the NBA would put together this super team........and then the plane would crash. But I would feel bad for the pilots. Unless it was Munson.
 

bakahump

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My first thought reading your post was this, from the 2022 playoffs against the Bucks:
Jaylen is right to be pissed about Giannis "Friendly Hey Bud" Arm hug. If you watch earlier Giannis gives him a veteran forearm shove on his way to the hoop. Even if accidental it enough to piss someone off and not want to josh it up with you.
 

Montana Fan

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Jaylen is right to be pissed about Giannis "Friendly Hey Bud" Arm hug. If you watch earlier Giannis gives him a veteran forearm shove on his way to the hoop. Even if accidental it enough to piss someone off and not want to josh it up with you.
There’s only one thing missing.
79523
 

InstaFace

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And I conflated that with this from last year:

...

This plus the full highlight real of dunks that Brown has over Giannis, I get the sense that JB is not all that fond of him.
Good stuff. And a reminder that whatever we might have gained in on-court production by swapping out Marcus Smart, we lost the #1 overall draft pick in "guys you would want in your posse if the bar fight is about to break out". He was ready to smoke some fools, even though it was Jaylen's beef to start.
 

PedraMartina

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I probably haven't been alone in tracking the Celts' rise up the historical point differential leaderboard--we're currently at #5 all time behind only the '17 Warriors, the '96 Bulls, the '71 Bucks and the '72 Lakers. (And today's win got them more than halfway from where they started the day toward passing the '17 Warriors for #4.)

One stat that surprises me (because I occasionally stress about JB or others missing key free throws in the clutch): the Celts' FT% leads all the teams in the top 19.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/largest-point-differential-per-game-by-a-nba-team-in-a-season
 

m0ckduck

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I probably haven't been alone in tracking the Celts' rise up the historical point differential leaderboard--we're currently at #5 all time behind only the '17 Warriors, the '96 Bulls, the '71 Bucks and the '72 Lakers. (And today's win got them more than halfway from where they started the day toward passing the '17 Warriors for #4.)

One stat that surprises me (because I occasionally stress about JB or others missing key free throws in the clutch): the Celts' FT% leads all the teams in the top 19.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/largest-point-differential-per-game-by-a-nba-team-in-a-season
Great pull about the FT% percentage. I was surprised to learn both: (1) the C's are shooting 80.9% as a team (the handwringing about JB and others having colored my perspective) and (2) 80.9% only ranks 6th overall among teams this year. It made me realize that free-throwing shooting overall has ticked up a lot in the past 20 years- 80.9% would have led the league in 2003-04. Interesting, given that "shooting the ball from 15 feet away" is much less a part of NBA offenses today. (I mean, it's not that surprising, given that free throw shooting is a fairly discreet skill that is practiced in separation from other shooting— but it's still kinda curious).

Another thing that stands out perusing team stats is the vast distance by which Boston leads the league in 3-pointers made. The gap between Boston (1107) and the next-closest team (Dallas with 996) is the same as Dallas (#2) and Utah (#12).
 

TomRicardo

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I agree, but the counter to any Tatum MVP argument is that if you swapped out Tatum and put Durant, Booker, Kawhi, PG, etc etc. on Boston, is their record or championship aspirations all that different? Not sure I agree with that take, but it does have some merit.

And obviously the counter holds true for PHO or LAC or others that if you put Tatum in there instead of Durant or Kawhi, is their future any different?
If we are playing the who would the Celtics be better off with currently constructed:

Definitely:
Joker
Healthy Embiid

Probably with some cavaets:
Giannis
Healthy Kawhi


Luka would be a disaster on this team. He would get his numbers but KP and Brown might just sulk in the corner. I don't think there has been a player that has been better with Luka than they have been with Tatum. Jrue and maybe Derrick White would work out real well with Luka. My guess is Luka lead Celtics would be ~45 wins with Jaylen begging for a trade and KP haven't a ton of phantom injuries to get away from Luka.

Durant is more reliable than Tatum moment to moment but he can't put together a season of value like Tatum can anymore. More so with LeBron.

SGA would hurt a little more than he would help. The upgrade you get on offense would sink the defense plus I think you would get more overlap with Jaylen. Unlike Luka, KP and SGA would be deadly. SGA would probably drive more double big.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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I am having a difficult time processing this. That is freaking wild considering how really easy it is to go down by 10 in today's NBA.

Within a game, there are definitely defensive effort changes that impact whether they are winning or margin. Big picture I think you and I have been on same page for a while---teh commitment to the right process on offense (getting ball inside/below FT line and then moving around, not quickly jacking threes) is by far the biggest thing they can control/change to impact winning.

To me, when they stick to that disciplined process they win almost every game - they can only lose if they shoot 20% from three or the other team is insanely hot offensively.

When they get lazy on offense they can still win big if they shoot 50% from three, but also can lose to anyone if they shoot poorly.

Good offense means they will win 4 of 7 versus everyone (even Denver). Lazy offense puts them into "it's a make or miss league" territory
This post really nails it for me. Last year the process was roughly:
  1. Guard dribbles up
  2. Guard uses screen and passes to whoever
  3. Whoever is fairly open and shoots the three
Was that #3 a bad shot? Usually not. But now you swap in Jrue and KP for Marcus and TL and NOW the process is more like this, no matter what lineup is on the floor:
  1. One of five guys carry the ball up, all of whom can effectively drive and/or shoot from range
  2. Ballhandler uses screen, usually gets much deeper into the teeth of the D, and passes to whoever.
  3. Whoever is fairly open, but instead of always shooting the three, he can...
    1. Attack the closeout and get the entire D rotating and reeling
    2. Swing it around the arc
    3. Shoot the three if the closeout isn't fast enough or if he overcommits to the challenge flies by on a pump-fake.
  4. Subsequently, if options 1 or 2 above is the path taken, the options open up even further
A lot of it is commitment to the scheme and trust in all the guys on the floor but probably as important is the reality that swapping out two big minute guys with no perimeter gravity has opened up so much of the floor. Hell even on the games when Marcus was randomly on a heater, opponents were still more than happy to let it happen. This year's team just doesn't give those breaks anymore.

The volume of "we could have gotten something better" shots has gone so far down this season.
 
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Jimbodandy

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I am having a difficult time processing this. That is freaking wild considering how really easy it is to go down by 10 in today's NBA.



This post really nails it for me. Last year the process was roughly:
  1. Guard dribbles up
  2. Guard uses screen and passes to whoever
  3. Whoever is fairly open and shoots the three
Was that #3 a bad shot? Usually not. But now you swap in Jrue and KP for Marcus and TL and NOW the process is more like this, no matter what lineup is on the floor:
  1. One of five guys carry the ball up, all of whom can effectively drive and/or shoot from range
  2. Ballhandler uses screen, usually gets much deeper into the teeth of the D, and passes to whoever.
  3. Whoever is fairly open, but instead of always shooting the three, he can...
    1. Attack the closeout and get the entire D rotating and reeling
    2. Swing it around the arc
    3. Shoot the three if the closeout isn't fast enough or if he overcommits to the challenge flies by on a pump-fake.
  4. Subsequently, if options 1 or 2 above is the path taken, the options open up even further
A lot of it is commitment to the scheme and trust in all the guys on the floor but probably as important is the reality that swapping out two big minute guys with no perimeter gravity has opened up so much of the floor. Hell even on the games when Marcus was randomly on a heater, opponents were still more than happy to let it happen. This year's team just doesn't give those breaks anymore.
Great post.

What cracks me up is when the team loses some offensive focus for 7 minutes in a quarter and devolves into iso threes, some folks in this place explode with "OMG they're regressing to last year's bad habits!!!11". But those aren't last year's bad habits--that's our old offense. This team is completely different and clearly runs differently at both ends, with the occasional lapse like once every ten games where they play lazy or unfocused.
 

Euclis20

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There's been plenty of talk over the last couple of weeks about how scoring is down because the league has made a concerted effort to let more contact go. Which makes this all the more remarkable:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-team-best-offensive-rating-since-all-star-break

The Celtics have an offensive rating of 129.5 since the break (not including yesterday's game). Approximately 8 points better than the Nuggets and Mavs, who have the 2nd and 3rd best offenses since the ASB.
 

lovegtm

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There's been plenty of talk over the last couple of weeks about how scoring is down because the league has made a concerted effort to let more contact go. Which makes this all the more remarkable:

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-team-best-offensive-rating-since-all-star-break

The Celtics have an offensive rating of 129.5 since the break (not including yesterday's game). Approximately 8 points better than the Nuggets and Mavs, who have the 2nd and 3rd best offenses since the ASB.
And the Cs have a very soft schedule from here on out, in terms of opponent quality. That tends to be a recipe for them putting up a lot of points, even with some starters resting.
 

BaseballJones

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Look at this from basketball-reference.com:

79637

The difference in SRS (which takes into account both point differential and strength of schedule) between Boston and the Knicks (#2 in the East) is 7.34, which is bigger than the difference between #1 in the West (OKC) and #11 in the West (LAL).
 

Euclis20

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lovegtm

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The best news there is KP potentially playing. All the evidence in the world points to them just resting him to get ready for the playoffs, but until I see him on the court, I'm still gonna have KG 2009 vibes.
I'm less worried with KP because they did this overly cautious rest thing once or twice already this season.
 

Euclis20

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I'm less worried with KP because they did this overly cautious rest thing once or twice already this season.
This has been a bit different. We saw him pull up lame with the calf injury against Orlando, he left the game and missed four more. We saw him roll his ankle against Miami, he left the game and then missed the next two. We last saw KP in the closing minutes against Denver, looking fine as far as I can remember, then his name popped up on the injury report and he's missed five straight games. If this was happening in December instead of March, the level of concern would be quite a bit higher, I think.
 

Euclis20

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Something isn't right, what about the Lakers and Bucks and Warriors teams?
The 72 Lakers had a net rating of 10.5, the 71 Bucks had a net rating of 10.8, and the 17 Warriors had a net rating of 11.6.

If the Celtics do end up winning the title, in retrospect it's gonna feel awfully inevitable.
 

Euclis20

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tims4wins

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That's point differential (total point scored minus total points allowed, divided by games played). Net rating is point differential per 100 possessions, not per game.
Ah my mistake - their net rating and their point differential are so close that it threw me off (11.7 to 11.4 I think)