2023-24 Celtics
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In the "Why can't we have nice thing" department, 98.5 seemed to be trying to make up a "Al Horford is unhappy with his role" story line out of thin air this afternoon. It seemed to be based on absolutely nothing other than the fact that Horford hasn't contributed much so far (which is true), but how you go from that to "Horford is unhappy with his role" story is complete garbage. It's completely true that Horford hasn't done much this season, and isn't playing a ton - but that's great. We've been pretty unanimous on this board that Horford should be shrinkwrapped until the the playoffs.
Hauser needs to translate his game to meaningful contributions in the playoffs before most of these comparisons make sense. For whatever reason he just hasn’t been trusted to play meaningful minutes. That seems likely to change this year but I think if you’re talking about some of these other shooters they’ve been far more exposed to high pressure situations. Especially for that skill I think you have to show you can drill shots that really matter
I agree with you that he needs more exposure to high pressure situations however I think he is trending in the right direction and has started to show he can do it under the bright lights of the playoffs. With the caveats of SSS and my guess that a lot of his playoff minutes have come in garbage time, Hauser is shooting .40 from three in the 4 playoff games where he has more than 10 minutes of playing time.
I recognize that I may be reaching here but I think Hauser's development as a 3 and (small d) bench wing is pretty much exactly what this team needs.
I expect Hauser to get a lot of minutes in the coming post season.
Also useful to note that the DEN starting five have a net rating of 37.1, and they’ve started all 10 games so far.
He was moving a little rigidly in the second half last night. Double down on the prayers and sacrifices to the health gods
we're gonna have to sit KP 10-15 games this year just for load management. He's played all 10 games so far this season, and his odds of playing any given game aren't going to go up as the season rolls on, they're going to go down. Away game to Philly with a tournament game in Toronto looming on Friday seems like a perfectly reasonable spot to give him his first night off.
Other than perhaps Al Horford, nobody on the squad needs to give their body more of a break than a 7'3" guy with a repaired left ACL, a meniscus tear in his right knee, a foot injury before the preseason, and a history of other issues who plays hard and gets banged up. I don't care how many games we lose this season as long as we're a top-4 seed, just do whatever we can to get the big 6 to the playoffs healthy.
Other than perhaps Al Horford, nobody on the squad needs to give their body more of a break than a 7'3" guy with a repaired left ACL, a meniscus tear in his right knee, a foot injury before the preseason, and a history of other issues who plays hard and gets banged up. I don't care how many games we lose this season as long as we're a top-4 seed, just do whatever we can to get the big 6 to the playoffs healthy.
That was after he took the hit from (I think) Randle when contesting a shot, right? They called it out on the broadcast - I thought at the time he took a knee to the quad. He stayed in though, so hopefully it's just some residual soreness and nothing that will linger.
It is a National Televised Game. KP isn't on the star list right now but if he makes it to the all star team (which he is on pace for) it costs you your freebee later in the season. It is really not worth pissing off the NBA when you have better games (Memphis and Charlotte) Sunday and Monday on non televised road back to back to choose from.
Edit - They have a brutal West Coast swing leading into Christmas with a national TV back to back then a couple of games in LA (Christmas with the Lakers).
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I don't have the numbers but I thought I heard someone say on their podcast (Lowe?) that the Cs were #1 in either (both?) corner 3P% or corner 3P makes. The person continued by suggesting it was the Cs defensive strategy to give up lightly contested above the break 3Ps in order to prevent corner 3Ps.
From what I've seen, that's an accurate description.
It's a fine regular season strategy, knowing how important preserving KP and to a lesser degree Al's legs will be, as long as they don't go full Budenholzer in the playoffs and let teams go nuclear in a short series by design. They have the horses for a harder contest and recovery strategy when the time comes.
Still small enough samples that ranks can change game by game, but Celtics are:
-6th in the league in fewest opponent corner 3 attempted (7.1, DET leads at 4.6)
-15th in opponent % corner threes made (38%)
-tied for 8th in fewest opponent made corner 3s per game (2.7)
-3rd in the league for MOST 3s attempted above the break (30.5 per game, Brooklyn first at 31.4; notable other leaders Bucks and Wolves at 5th and 6th)
-8th in lowest opponent % made 3s above the break (33.4%)
-tied for 8th in most opponent made 3s above the break (10.2)
Overall, Celtics are 20th in fewest allowed 3s per game (12.9, Indiana leads at 10.1).
They are allowing the second fewest baskets from the restricted area (12.9), behind only GSW.
edit: it would be interesting to know the probability that a missed above the break 3 leads either to an offensive rebound or a fast break the other way.
I'm sure teams have their own data but this would be interesting to see. I'd imagine it is fairly significantly lower than corner 3's as the floor balance would be much better without the shooter being stuck in the corner on his follow through...as opposed to the corner spot up guy flaring out to defend transition on the release from the top.
Preventing Corner3 attempts and permitting above-the-break 3s is a smart way to set up your transition offense.
Corner 3 challenges leads to a player out of position (on the sideline), while an "above-the-break" 3pt challenge leads to player running towards their basket (weapon in transition)
We are seeing several clever moves (defensive pressure, zone curveball, end-of-quarters, TOs, rotation usage, etc) by Joe with a full year under his belt and an actual coaching staff that was hired by him.
Positioning is one part of it, but the ball trajectory is the other. Missed corner 3s are going to bounce to different locations than missed 3s above the break. An air balled corner 3 will go almost directly into a player’s hands (offensive or defensive); an air balled ATB 3 is out of bounds and play stops (and no chance for offensive rebound). A clanked ATB 3 often caroms back out to the original shooter, a different offensive player, or potentially a transitioning defense. But it’s rare for a corner 3 to hit the rim and then turn 90 degrees towards the center of the court.
The last time I looked at this, there was a study of shot distance vs. offensive rebound rate, and it turned out that very close and very deep shots had higher offensive rebound rates compared to
midrange. But that study didn’t distinguish between different angles.
Isn’t this backwards? Preventing corner three attempts means defending those attempts, which means you have defenders in the corners. Permitting above the break threes means you aren’t challenging those shots as aggressively as other teams do, which means you are less likely to have defenders set up for outlet transition passes.
Over the past 2+ seasons (5000+ games) the league-wide Dreb% on above the break 3s is 78.3% and 76.4% on corner 3s. (Edit: to finish this off, Rim Dreb% is 61.7%, SMR 68.9%, LMR 79.7%).
Opace excluding second chance opportunities is 10.8 seconds off of a missed three (10.9 AB 3, 10.6 corner 3), and 9.6 seconds off of a missed two (8.9 rim miss, 10 SMR miss, 10.9 LMR miss) over that same time span. Not quite the same as transition/not transition, but it's the best I have access to.
As people likely know, the best opportunity to run comes after misses at the rim when the floor is most likely to be unbalanced. (Edit: unbalanced for the team now on defense, that is)
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Sounds like you and HRB disagree with me, which is cool.
This is my take
1. The majority of 3PA against the Celtics are coming from above the break.
2. The Celtics' send players at the opposing 3pt shooters, and give up a small % of unchallenged 3PA
3. After a Celtic challenges an above-the-break 3 they are headed towards the offensive end. They are in better position than the defender that lands out of bounds on the side of the court challenging a Corner3
This has been my position for years about Corner3s bending defenses. They provide more benefits than just the shortest & highest % 3PA in my opinion.
Thanks for the info! I guess my hearing loss is only partial, not complete!
I'm not sure that we're even "permitting" above the break threes as much as the fact that their distance can be extended such that it's almost a terrible idea to chase a guy out to 30 feet. That's not in play for corner threes. Some guys can barely fit their feet in that corner without stepping on the three line or the sideline, whereas a guy who's hell-bent to launch an ATB three can just jack from super deep or dare you to man up miles from the basket. Might be too much noise in the comparison.
This is really great stuff!
Unless the outlet passer is Jokic, Love or the Ball Bros there is almost never going to be an over the top TD pass for a layup anymore. That first contester of the AB-3 fills a lane ahead of the break....if all else is equal there is not a numbers advantage and the AB shooter can easily matchup with him in transition as a pass is unlikely to come over the top. On a corner 3 however, the defender can contest and still get out into a lane ahead of the shooter still completing his follow through to create a numbers advantage in the delayed break.
BYW none of that’s filtering garbage time (taken directly from nba.com) - these ranks include the 10 three’s Indiana chucked in the 4th quarter a few weeks ago.
Well, this Philly rematch will not feature KP or JB.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1724921389247861118?s=20
#NEBHInjuryReport update: Jaylen Brown (illness, non-Covid) - OUT Kristaps Porzingis (right knee contusion) - OUT Neemias Queta - AVAILABLE
I guess Al will start for KP, and either Brissett or Hauser for JB. Obviously Kornet will play, but Lamar Stevens and maybe even Queta will get a chance. I assume they will try to match as many of Embiid's minutes as they can with Al.
View: https://twitter.com/celtics/status/1724921389247861118?s=20
#NEBHInjuryReport update: Jaylen Brown (illness, non-Covid) - OUT Kristaps Porzingis (right knee contusion) - OUT Neemias Queta - AVAILABLE
I guess Al will start for KP, and either Brissett or Hauser for JB. Obviously Kornet will play, but Lamar Stevens and maybe even Queta will get a chance. I assume they will try to match as many of Embiid's minutes as they can with Al.
This was a statement win: no KP, no JB, no problem.
For long stretches it felt like it might not be a win at all, for a couple of reasons. First, after racing out to a 15 point first quarter lead, Philly pasted them in the second quarter and took a 1 point lead into the half, aided by 6 Celtic turnovers. Second, Joel Embiid was a -25 in a game the Celtics won by 10. That means that Philly just crushed the Celtics in the Embiid bench minutes.
You could see the offense was challenged by the lack of JT and KP, but the other guys stepped up. Derek White scored 14 points in the 4th quarter (and scored 27 for the game on just 12 shots from the field). Al Horford was maybe the player of the game for me. During a point in the third quarter when it felt like the game might slip away, he hit 3 threes. Hit another in the 4th. Finished with 14 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and FIVE blocks, including 2 key 4th quarter blocks. Holiday had another double double (18 points 10 rebounds), and Tatum did not have the best shooting game, but he did have 29 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists.
BTW, here are Celtic double-doubles for the season:
For long stretches it felt like it might not be a win at all, for a couple of reasons. First, after racing out to a 15 point first quarter lead, Philly pasted them in the second quarter and took a 1 point lead into the half, aided by 6 Celtic turnovers. Second, Joel Embiid was a -25 in a game the Celtics won by 10. That means that Philly just crushed the Celtics in the Embiid bench minutes.
You could see the offense was challenged by the lack of JT and KP, but the other guys stepped up. Derek White scored 14 points in the 4th quarter (and scored 27 for the game on just 12 shots from the field). Al Horford was maybe the player of the game for me. During a point in the third quarter when it felt like the game might slip away, he hit 3 threes. Hit another in the 4th. Finished with 14 points, 8 rebounds, 3 assists, and FIVE blocks, including 2 key 4th quarter blocks. Holiday had another double double (18 points 10 rebounds), and Tatum did not have the best shooting game, but he did have 29 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists.
BTW, here are Celtic double-doubles for the season:
- Tatum 5 (all points-rebounds)
- Holiday 5 (4 points-rebounds, 1 points-assists)
The bench played tough this game. They have a pretty versatile group and they showed they can anchor things, at least for stretches. It will be interesting to see if its sustainable but early returns are bullish.
Pretty enjoyable and well earned victory in Philly. Wakefield, I mean Horford was all we hope he will be next spring. F’n love that guy. And DoTB, that video is f’n great. Hope to see it a lot this season!
I was really stumped why they played Embiid almost all of the third, instead of resting him. Like, you'd think maybe giving him more rest, especially with the rest of that bench playing well without him.
That said, I can't really get too aggravated about the non-Joel bench minutes because that felt like a Sixers bench that was out to prove they weren't scrappy doo-doo after only getting 10 points the night before.
That said, I can't really get too aggravated about the non-Joel bench minutes because that felt like a Sixers bench that was out to prove they weren't scrappy doo-doo after only getting 10 points the night before.
Missing 2 All-Star players and still having Tatum, White, Jrue, and Horford is quite a luxury. That would still one of the best top 4s in the NBA.
The ball was well moving in the 4th well tonight. Don't want to jump to the "Jaylen was out" conclusion, maybe just a tired D on the 2nd end of a back to back. But nice to see regardless.
The ball was well moving in the 4th well tonight. Don't want to jump to the "Jaylen was out" conclusion, maybe just a tired D on the 2nd end of a back to back. But nice to see regardless.
Honestly, I think the best way to maximize production on this roster is to reduce Jaylen’s minutes with the top unit and increase them with the second unit. He is a good/great option when you need to overcome a lack of scoring talent on the floor, but the top of this roster is chock full of that, and so I think the downside aspects of Jaylen’s game can do less damage when there’s a lower chance of other Celtics on the floor being able to score. If that makes sense…it does in my head, at least.
That’s an interesting idea. Jaylen would be a pretty incredible sixth man, and Al seems to play better as a starter (if they wanted to go double big).
The good news is that Al is not dead. Man was a stud muffin tonight. Bad news is that this victory gives the anti-Jaylen posse ammunition for their nonsense. I'll take the win.
Huh, I think the conclusion should be "Al is better as a lone center", since that's what we saw tonight. This team looks best when it can space, and having a 4 covering Horford who can close out to him really hurts that spacing.
It's fair to say that Jaylen is still trying to figure out how to get his looks, but they missed him at times tonight. Things were a struggle when 3s didn't fall, and his 2-man game with KP is a weapon.
Being able to bring 3 shooters off the bench is a luxury, and probably why things looked good. Simplify the game, let DWhite, Jrue and Tatum attack while the other guys shoot and make good decisions.
Also....Luke Kornet is kinda ok? He is playing with force on offense, but still contests fewer shots than you'd expect from the weakside on defense. There are a lot of times when you think he has a guy lined up, and they get it over him anyway.
That has generally never worked, though, when it has been tried.
Maybe. I wonder if they should be limiting the Kornet minutes for that reason. Barring some sort of mishap or matchup issue, do you ever want Kornet in the game with Al or KP?
He is. Although in the middle of the 4th I wanted to rip my hair out watching Philly repeatedly run the pick and roll to get Kornet switched onto Maxsey, with apparently no adjustments by the Celtics.
It was a good early-season win for the Celtics. Without JB/KP maybe we learned a handful of things:
1. If anything last night showed us the death of the double BIG. If there ever was a team/player you'd want to go BIG against it would be for Philly/Embiid. Having quicker guys front him, and throwing some Doubles at him with WINGS/Guards led to fewer FTs for Joel.
2. Horford can handle Embiid on his own if need be. It's clear Al still has it, nobody ever said or suggested he was "washed". Limiting his minutes during the course of the season to save him for the playoffs is a basic load mgmt strategy that should be employed with both Al/KP. It felt like KP could have played if it was the playoffs but opted for rest. 100% agree with that strategy for both him and Al.
3. Derrick White needs the ball (late) to initiate. I'm not buying into Point Brown anymore, that multi-year experiment needs to end. White, Jrue, Tatum, PP all should be the initiators. We don't need to see Jaylen anywhere near the backcourt after a made basket. Brown is not good at it. We have competent players to handle that simple task. Jaylen can get the ball off screens, picks, pindowns, and ball movement in the halfcourt. He'll be fine. He'll get his POINTZ, flowers, All-Star appearances, bag, and he'll always be a starter.
3. End-of-game Tatum/Brown ISO my-turn basketball also needs to be severely cut back. Ball/player movement, two-man PNR or Pick n Pop should be tested much more in late/tight during the regular season.
4. Defensively, Sam Hauser can play against starting-caliber WINGs, front BIGs, & even guard Maxey for short stints. Hunting Hauser is over, the league realizes it's a silly/fruitless approach to halfcourt offense. BUT still look forward to some teams trying it out if they haven't seen the video tape.
5. As promised, CJM has come up with a handful of curveballs. I'm definitely interested in seeing the C's regularly work on their half-court zone, trapping defense, double-teams, different ball-pressure concepts, full-court press, etc.
6. Kornet showed us more aggression on offense but was getting beat defensively by Reed/others. Not terribly concerned about the 3rd Center spot, especially if Joe doesn't go Double BIG as much. But it's still a place where Brad could add if a better player comes up (like Theis down the road)
7. Thought Banton and Svi showed us a little, but didn't draw much from their play. Still want to see Joe experiment with Brisset and Stevens on smaller 5s.
I love Banton’s size and it helped last night. But his shot is still pretty bad. Celtics will have to put him in good spots and so far they have.
Also, I think Tatum had an off game. Yet still 29/8/6 against 3 turnovers (two pretty bad ones to be honest). Incredible.
Also, I think Tatum had an off game. Yet still 29/8/6 against 3 turnovers (two pretty bad ones to be honest). Incredible.
Banton's line is interesting. He played 8 minutes, shot 1-4 (0-1 from three), had 5 rebounds, a steal, and 2 fouls.
All of that line happened during 4 first quarter minutes when he was a plus 8.
The 5 rebounds shows that he was active throughout.
If not for the 2 fouls, I wonde rif he would have played longer.
His first shot was his only make: a tip-in of a missed shot.
The steal came when Joel Embiid was bring the ball up (???) and Banton caught him from behind and tipped the ball forward (ahead of Embiid) where other Celtics were waiting.
His 3 misses were:
- a very badly airballed corner 3 late in the clock
- a missed layup after a nice drive from the top of the key
- a missed 15 fotter after he drove, broke off his drive, and found a good spot to shoot from in the paint
I had the same thought. I was surprised to see the box score because I had the mistaken impression watching the game that he didn’t play all that well, but it wasn’t true. He’s just a really, really good player so that 29 points seems like an off night.
I was surprised the Celtics went as small as they did with KP out, or rather, I should say I was surprised we didn’t see any Brisset. But, it was an awesome win. The kind of win I felt like other teams had against the Celtics last season.
He took a ton of shots and was only 55% TS, so it was mildly off.
I think it's also that he was pretty bad in the 2nd quarter when they lost the lead.