2022-23 NBA Game Thread
- Thread starter Deathofthebambino
- Start date
I don't know which is the correct strategy and I took a quick look around the interweb and didn't see anyone do a break down of the numbers but with regards to the bolded, it's entirely possible that PDX holds it for the last shot.
If PDX is down 1 and getting the ball back with say 14 seconds on the shot clock (RWB shot the ball with 30 seconds left and 18 left of the shot clock), PDX is going to take a time-out (I assume they had one left as I haven't heard otherwise). We've seen plenty of teams at that point give the ball to their best player to win or lose the game. Just one example - JT's game winner against MIL in 2020 occurred when BOS had the ball with 8.9 seconds left and down 1. BOS didn't work for the quickest shot; they just gave the ball to JT and said, "Win or lose the game for us."
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wITSkB6VQ5E
We’re talking about about a zero sum game here, and the trailing team holding for a last second “win or lose” shot is generally not felt to be a good strategy. If the numbers say otherwise, I would be interested to hear it (not snark, would actually be interested
)Will it work out sometimes? Of course. But I don’t think most trailing teams are looking to hold for a last second shot usually. They want a chance for an offenseive rebound or, at worst, a foul and getting another chance down 2-3. Perhaps the team specifics, star player, defense, etc change things in a particular game.
Now if holding for the last shot while trailing is indeed the smart move, then a 2 for 1 is definitely back on the table for the leading team.
Someone should alert all of the NBA coaches about this preferred trailing strategy.
Taking another quick look around the interweb, I did not see anything written on the optimal last possession strategy for a team trailing by 1 point and the shot clock turned off.We’re talking about about a zero sum game here, and the trailing team holding for a last second “win or lose” shot is generally not felt to be a good strategy. If the numbers say otherwise, I would be interested to hear it (not snark, would actually be interested
Will it work out sometimes? Of course. But I don’t think most trailing teams are looking to hold for a last second shot usually. They want a chance for an offenseive rebound or, at worst, a foul and getting another chance down 2-3. Perhaps the team specifics, star player, defense, etc change things in a particular game.
Now if holding for the last shot while trailing is indeed the smart move, then a 2 for 1 is definitely back on the table for the leading team.
Someone should alert all of the NBA coaches about this preferred trailing strategy.
However, this article - https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2017/01/analyzing-nba-team-shot-selection-when-trailing-by-2-points-with-time-expiring/ - suggests that FG% is so low with 0-2 seconds left on the shot that teams should probably shoot with 3+ seconds left on the clock. Plus that would give enough time for an offensive rebound if one can be corralled.
Hey, was there a sale on League Pass I missed or is the premium always $130? How’s it been so far this year? Hopefully better than the Sunday Ticket issues.
Yeah they cut the price this year:
https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-cuts-league-pass-price-140000078.html
I don't have a sub because I mostly just watch the Celtics so I can't speak to the quality.
I love League Pass Premium. Works way better than Sunday Ticket. You are blacked out of local games and nationally televised game. But with premium you get in building entertainment instead of commercials. You also can chose either announcing team. Also, the day after you can watch condensed games of different lengths. You also get radio broadcasts for all games. Best sports app out there.
I was worried about Dame heading into the season. A small guard who relies a lot on explosiveness, coming off a down year and a serious injury, entering his Age 32 season. So far the results have been stellar. Portland at least has given themselves a chance in bringing in Grant, and also now having Little, Justice Winslow and Sharpe, who is interesting, have having some real wings that can guard people and shoot a bit.
I do find it odd that after finally pulling the trigger on breaking about Dame and CJ, that they now are built in a similar way with Simons replacing CJ.
I do find it odd that after finally pulling the trigger on breaking about Dame and CJ, that they now are built in a similar way with Simons replacing CJ.
Thanks for the insight. I live in Portland and get the Blazers as is, but unsure if I need it to watch the C’s. I imagine they’ll be televised a ton, but haven’t looked at the schedule. Be a nice thing to have though for any crazy/close games
Josh Hart is turning out to be the glue for Portland. He defends, has a great motor, and seems to be the guy who is setting the tone with his intensity. He has turned out to be a much better return for CJ than I thought. It’s been a perfect fit.
I was prepared to bet heavy on the under, then thought better of it at the last minute. Still a long season, but for now, happy to have second guessed myself.
I'm in Seattle and if I didn't have League Pass, I wouldn't have been able to watch last night's Celtics-Bulls game. So there's that.
This is why having the clippers as a title favorite is ludicrous to me. He skates by largely without criticism because he’s quiet and has been a giant killer, but he's the most injury prone star in the league and the clippers are absolutely not a contender without him. Their depth means they can tread water in the regular season without him, but he's every bit as unreliable as Simmons, kyrie or AD.
Pels prevail. LP team for sure this season.
McCollum seems to really be embracing his role as a leader/elder states person
McCollum seems to really be embracing his role as a leader/elder states person
Indeed. With Leonard and George out, the Clips lost to the tanking Thunder (minus Giddey) by double digits. I'll never understand Clips-Love, given the team's inability to count on Leonard.
It’s worth it to try on a month-to-month basis to see if you can get any value out of it. $15 or $20 for a month plus the trial period is a very small commitment to see if you like it. You don’t get a ton of extra value out of the yearly plans as you’ll likely cancel at the end of the regular season.
I also recommend going through your tv provider if that’s an option, as you can still authenticate through the NBA app in addition to your cable/streaming bundle.
I think the Clippers emerged as a popular Finals pick because people just didn't want to pick Golden State and no other team in the West really stood out.
The Blazers also aren’t losing anything with Simons stepping into CJ’s role. Sharpe is picking things up quickly too and Nurkic appears fully recovered from that gruesome injury a couple years ago. They look great…….but so do the Jazz and the Spurs. What’s real and what is not? Either way a fun start to the season as we see how these early surprises play out.
The entire regular season is going to be one big dose of load management of Kawhi. They have already said he’ll both miss most back-to-backs as in the games he does play will skip his first rotation while entering the game mid-2Q. Everyone already knows how the team is approaching the regular season so there really isn’t anything to count on until the playoffs begin at which point the B2B’s are eliminated.
Sorry, I can't let this go. The math doesn't defend it at all. It makes no sense. If you are up at the very end of the game, you don't need a two for one. The other team is going to try to score as fast as possible no matter what because they are behind. Taking more time off of the clock - and giving them less time - makes that job harder. And that doesn't even factor in that you can still make a bucket later on in the shot clock - it's not like the only chance is at 18 seconds.
Nevermind the fact that even if Russ made the shot, the two for one would leave them with like three seconds to go in the game so the upside was nil. No, what you're saying is nonsense, and once more NO ONE IN THE LEAGUE HAS DONE IN FOUR SEASONS because it makes zero sense.
Agree, but the problem is that this wasn't a back-to-back. It's pretty reasonable at this point to be very, very skeptical that we'll ever see Real Kawhi again, even if they just shrinkwrap him for the playoffs.
I'd be interested in knowing what you think the math says. I'll admit I don't have the math chops to figure it out. A couple of assumptions that I am using in trying to figure this out.
- First, the question is whether taking a 2-1 up 1 point with 30-ish seconds left on the clock is good strategy. If we're talking about strategy, then we have to leave RWB out of the analysis. Because if the argument is that 2022 RWB shouldn't be taking any shot, that's probably true. He probably shouldn't have even been on the court at that time.
- LAL got the ball with 37-38 seconds left on the clock. The shot was taken with 30.1 seconds left of the game clock; 18 seconds left on the shot clock. PDX rebounded the ball with approximately 28 seconds left on the game clock.
- According to this website - http://stats.inpredictable.com/nba/wpCalc.php - LAL's win probability was 77.6%
- There seems to be three strategies: hold the ball until the end of the shot clock; run the normal offense for the best shot possible; and taking a 2 for 1.
- If RWB makes the shot, the win probability ("WP") goes up to 90.1%. When he missed, the WP went down to 60.8%.
- If LAL had held the ball and shot with say 13 seconds left on the clock, if they had made it, the WP would have been 91.5%. If they had missed the WP would have been 63.3%.
- If they run their normal offense, their WP would have been somewhere between those two extremes.
- So if these WPs are correct, then I guess the "2 for 1" is a red herring (the potential extra possession making little difference in the WP - 90.1% to 91.5% - and really it depends on what course of action creates the best % shot. So for most teams, taking an uncontested 17 footer even if it is early in the shot clock seems like the correct strategy so long as you have someone who is making that shot pretty regularly.
Seven T's in the 3rd quarter of GSW v. PHX. The most in a quarter since the late 90's. Tatum better curb his air-punching because the league is clearly on a war path.
I feel like the league does this every year; they start off with renewed vigor in T'ing guys up, and even going after star players, to send a message that THIS YEAR they aren't taking any shit. Then the playoffs roll around and none of the stars get Technicals.
If they were truly being serious, there's no way that Kerr and Draymond would've lasted a half - any half - let alone finish the game with only one technical a piece.
That game deserved the T’s it got but the play which led to the Draymond T was one heck of an egregiously awful non-call. The ref should have been T’d up for that one.
The Suns got under the Warriors skin imo and Booker goaded Klay into the ejection. Every Suns Warriors game is must-see from here on out. The contempt is real save for maybe Damion Lee and it cannot be that comfortable there either.
Didn't watch the game, but from the clip, it looked like Klay was doing most of the talking. Do we know what Booker said to get him going?
Klay’s head was not in the game from the get-go so he was vulnerable to being frustrated as he wasn’t engaged at all. He was doing what Jaylen sometimes get lost in doing and that’s simply running up and down the sideline without much urgency or purpose for large stretches of his rotation. Kerr saw this early and Klay only played 12-13 min of the 1H bc he can simply keep Poole out there who was doing whatever the heck he wanted with the ball.
Mild mannered Steve Nash thrown out of the game with a double technical after going ballistic on a non call on Giannis. Giannis has been Giannis knocking people down left and right with little consequence. He gets ridiculous latitude.
My heart breaks... They had a sizable lead at the half. Suppose Kryie going 0 for 7 from three, and Simmons 2 for 7 from the field, made that difficult to sustain.
All non basketball play fouls need to be one shot and the ball. Knocks smartly foul to stop a 3 point try attempt by Hornets. Smart foul but not entertaining. Put in a rule to make it stop. Game tying 3 point attempts at the buzzer are awesome.
Another day, another game in which Ben Simmons doesn't take a shot outside the paint. By my count he's taken exactly one shot outside of the paint in 8 games so far this year (regular and preseason). That's one shot in over 200 minutes, it happened to be a 3 pointer, and it was a buzzer beater at the end of a quarter. He's also just 4-15 from the line so far.
Joker not only getting away with the blatant elbow clear out, but also getting to the line. It’s good to be MVP
not only that but Kyrie called him out for not shooting - this shit is high comedy
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ComplexSports/status/1585440930710028289
Agree with your general point that getting good quality shot is certainly more important than the timing of the shot.
Taking these stats at face value, it seems to support the general assumption that make or miss, the leading team is better off running more clock than trying for some hypothetical 2 for 1. Odds are better to win missing with 13 second on the clock (and have no guaranteed extra possession) than to miss with 30 seconds on the clock.
I'd also add, without running the numbers, the 1 point game is probably the time when the numbers are closest. If you miss the shot, the trailing team does have at least some chance of winning the game outright in regulation.
Not enough for for running down the clock to be the preferred strategy, but it should still be accounted for as a reasonable possibility. If you are up 2 (or of course 3+), that chance is much lower. Hence the early shot clock "2 for 1" would have even less value in a 2+ point spread.
Last edited:
Lake Town on a midnight train to a 0-4 start to the season. I eagerly await the desperate trade that even further mortages their future.
Last edited: