2022-2023 General Celtics thread

[benhogan]

"Joe Mazzulla likes math..." classic headline from THE ATHLETIC (very worthwhile subscription)

https://theathletic.com/3746993/2022/10/31/math-favors-celtics-joe-mazzulla/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983

“I’m not as concerned with the defense,” Mazzulla said. “We’re fourth in shot-selection defense and we’re last in midrange points per shot and we’re first in midrange frequency. So some of the stuff we just have to do a little bit better job.”

The Celtics were fourth in shot-selection defense entering their win against Washington but actually jumped to first after taking apart the Wizards offense, according to Cleaning the Glass. That means Boston has done an elite job of forcing opponents into areas that typically produce the lowest field goal percentages — and, conversely, of limiting attempts from the highest-percentage zones. The Celtics have ranked second in preventing corner 3-point attempts, fourth in preventing attempts at the rim and fourth in preventing 3-point attempts overall. They have led the league in forcing long midrange attempts, typically the least efficient shots in basketball, and overall midrange attempts, which are also relatively inefficient. Over a large sample size, a defensive shot profile like that should be expected to produce a stingy defense, especially with the talent the Celtics boast.

The Celtics rank fifth so far in offensive location effective field goal percentage, making them the only team in the top five on both ends of the court.
“I love open 3s,” Mazzulla said. “I like space. And I think it’s a huge strength of our team. So the thing we have to learn on the offensive end is exactly what you said, just making sure we’re getting the best actual shot every time down. And regardless of if it goes in or not, it’s a good shot.”
Because math says it is. In a sign of how much the offense has grown, only 6.3 percent of Celtics shot attempts have come from the long midrange so far (the league average is 9.6 percent), according to Cleaning the Glass

Luke Kornet appears to be gaining ground in the competition for backup center minutes, but Mazzulla is still figuring out the frontcourt rotation behind Al Horford. Defensive rebounding has been a problem in several games. That’s one downside of playing smaller lineups after overwhelming teams with size and physicality last season. Robert Williams’ absence has been felt on the glass. The Wizards were able to stay moderately close in the first half thanks to 11 offensive rebounds before halftime.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Thought this quote from Mazzulla in the athletic was interesting:

“I’m not as concerned with the defense,” Mazzulla said. “We’re fourth in shot-selection defense and we’re last in midrange points per shot and we’re first in midrange frequency. So some of the stuff we just have to do a little bit better job.”

Also this from the article:

The Celtics were fourth in shot-selection defense entering their win against Washington but actually jumped to first after taking apart the Wizards offense, according to Cleaning the Glass. That means Boston has done an elite job of forcing opponents into areas that typically produce the lowest field goal percentages — and, conversely, of limiting attempts from the highest-percentage zones. The Celtics have ranked second in preventing corner 3-point attempts, fourth in preventing attempts at the rim and fourth in preventing 3-point attempts overall. They have led the league in forcing long midrange attempts, typically the least efficient shots in basketball, and overall midrange attempts, which are also relatively inefficient.

Edit: The Athletic is worth a sub. Two posts in a row!

 

[benhogan]

Yea. I hope quoting doesn't upset anyone at The Athletic (if it does PM me and I'll stop)

 

[Eddie Jurak]

On the one hand, this was a well played game and an overtime loss to a good team, and nothing much to worry about.

On the other hand, a key reason the Celtics were competitive in this game at all is because Mobley picked up 3 fouls and played only 8 minutes in the first half, only 2 minutes in the second quarter which was the one time in the game where the Celtics dominated (29-15). And all of the Celtics bad old habits were on display. Giving up key offensive rebounds, turning the ball over, struggling to close out games, unable to execute their offense against strong rim-protecting teams. Cleveland is 2-0 against the Celtics because Cleveland simply better than the Celtics right now.

On the plus side, there is plenty of time and the return of a key player between now and when the games really matter. But Rob's return and his effectiveness once back is uncertain.

The Celtics went with their small lineup again, and Cleveland got out to a big lead before Mobley left with fould trouble and the Celtics were able to close the gap, ending the first quarter down only 8, 35-27. They then blew out the Cavs in the second, taking advantage of Mobley playing only 2 minutes and winning the quarter 29-15 to go up 6 at the half. In the third quarter they pushed their lead up to 10 and then gave up a 10-0 run to tie it and, after trading baskets for a bit, let Clevenand end the quarter with a 9-2 run. Overall, CLeveland won the third 33-20. The Celtics came out strong in the 4th, opening with a 14-2 run to go up 5 points, but were unable to hold the lead or win the OT.

Jaylen Brown was the best Celtic tonight through 3 quarters, scoring 30 points and added 8 rebounds, 4 assists. But he played all but 4 seconds of the 4th quarter and OT and shot 2-11 for only 6 points.

Jayson Tatum scored 26 points, but shot poorly 8-21, 2-9 from three. SOme of his secondary stats were great (12 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 blocks) but he also turned the ball over 6 times. He was good in the 4th quarter (8 points, 3-3 from the field, 2 blocks) but not so much in the OT. It's also obvious that a frontcourt like Jarrett Allen/Evan Mobley turns Tatum into a different player. His driving game just disappeared, replaced by nothing. Will Tatum ever be a MVP-caliber player? Not if he cannot figure out how to produce against teams that have strong rim protection.

Marcus Smart had some excellent moments and some head-scratching ones. His 3 point shooting was a poor 1-5. Three of these attempts were of the "catch and shoot in the flow of the offsense" variety and he pretty much has to take them. Two were attempts where he shot off the dribble and no other Celtic touched the ball during the possession. Those need to stop. He also took a stupid shot late in the OT. All of his three attempts were taken in the first half (his only shots in the half).In the second half the Celtics started using him to post up Garland and he was effective, getting to the line a bunch and scoring 11 points on 3 for 4 from the field.

Al Horford played 40 minutes and finished with 12 points and 12 rebounds, but he looked gassed in the OT. No shots, no rebounds, 1 assist, let a crashing Levert take a key late game rebound away from him. Mazzulla's usage of Horford needs to be scaled back.

The bench was not great tonight. They got some quality minutes from Grant and Brogdon (although Brogdon was ineffective in the third quarter), but Kornet was terrible in a 2 minute first qurter stint and never saw the floor again, and Hauser shot 0-1 and was targeted by Cleveland with some success in his 10 minutes.

 

[RorschachsMask]

It's also obvious that a frontcourt like Jarrett Allen/Evan Mobley turns Tatum into a different player. His driving game just disappeared, replaced by nothing. Will Tatum ever be a MVP-caliber player? Not if he cannot figure out how to produce against teams that have strong rim protection.

He dropped 31 on 19 shots against them week lol, though most in the first half.

As for the MVP thing, we saw what he did against the Bucks last year, and they’re the best rim defending team in the league.

 

[Jimbodandy]

He dropped 31 on 19 shots against them week lol, though most in the first half.

As for the MVP thing, we saw what he did against the Bucks last year, and they’re the best rim defending team in the league.

This. Some nights guys don't have it or don't have parts of "it". I remember Bird having games where he looked like day old chicken parm during his 3-year MVP run. Sometimes people are looking for things that aren't there. Like the "Tatum didn't show up in the Finals" folks, who conveniently disregard that he went 26/7/6 in the playoffs while leading earth in minutes played last year by a lot.

 

[Bunt4aTriple]

EJ=Canderson of the Port Cellar

 

[chilidawg]

Only missed call in the last two minutes (4th and OT) of last night's game was a missed travel on Garland prior to a foul taken by GW. No call on Allen was correct.

https://official.nba.com/l2m/L2MReport.html?gameId=0022200107

 

[lovegtm]

Tatum was the only starter with a positive +/- tonight by a wide margin (he was +11, the other four starters ranged from -10 to -13), which seems hard to pull off. Really fun seeing him level up yet again, and while Luka and Morant may get more MVP buzz, they can't dream of the kind of 2-way impact that Tatum has.

At what point is Mazzulla going to watch the Tatum/Brogdon/Grant/Hauser/center lineups destroy people and look amazing wrt spacing and think "maybe we want more of this?"

The Cs were already willing to bench Smart in the 4th for White, and I was surprised it wasn't Grant or Hauser. The starting group has obvious issues with spacing not being there to the same degree it is on those spaced-out bench units.

 

[Imbricus]

Brogdon was just so good last night. I only saw the first half, but a few times, it felt like he was putting the team on his shoulders, and saying, "Watch me, I'm going to keep us in this game." Hauser (+19) should be getting plenty of minutes too. Mazz should be using him more strategically, situationally. Hopefully Mazz figures that out.

As for Grant: Yup, you do get screwed over. I saw that phantom foul you were given defending the three-point shot. Ridiculous. But you have to put on your Big Boy pants. This constant whining to refs isn't winning you any friends.

 

[lovegtm]

Brogdon was just so good last night. I only saw the first half, but a few times, it felt like he was putting the team on his shoulders, and saying, "Watch me, I'm going to keep us in this game." Hauser (+19) should be getting plenty of minutes too. Mazz should be using him more strategically, situationally. Hopefully Mazz figures that out.

As for Grant: Yup, you do get screwed over. I saw that phantom foul you were given defending the three-point shot. Ridiculous. But you have to put on your Big Boy pants. This constant whining to refs isn't winning you any friends.

Brogdon is playing incredibly well right now. He's obviously earned a place in the closing lineup, but I'd love to see that lineup have a shooter in place of Smart/White, just because Brogdon is so dynamic on a spaced floor.

On a different note, I thought that the defense was better than the numbers indicate last night. They gang rebounded hard, and a lot of Chicago's points came from hitting tons of midrange shots, along with the refs deciding that defending DeRozan was an automatic foul. If DeMar got that whistle every night, he'd be a 10-time MVP.

(The Cs did drop too deep on DeRozan early, before making a clear adjustment in the 2nd?/3rd? quarter to have the bigs come up to touch.)

 

[Imbricus]

I'd love to see that lineup have a shooter in place of Smart/White, just because Brogdon is so dynamic on a spaced floor

This is a really good point. A Brogdon + Hauser pairing should be lethal. I was amazed last night at how effective Brogdon is at driving, even into traffic.

 

[lovegtm]

This is a really good point. A Brogdon + Hauser pairing should be lethal. I was amazed last night at how effective Brogdon is at driving, even into traffic.

yes, and "should be" = "already clearly is"

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Cs were already willing to bench Smart in the 4th for White, and I was surprised it wasn't Grant or Hauser. The starting group has obvious issues with spacing not being there to the same degree it is on those spaced-out bench units.

I don't think think this was significant - Smart had 5 fouls when Mazzulla took him out.

 

[joe dokes]

Hauser really makes sharp cuts without the ball on offense. A couple of them opened space for teammates because it forced that least one defender to "choose" earlier and more decisively and seemed to forestall doubling the ball a bit.

 

[benhogan]

At what point is Mazzulla going to watch the Tatum/Brogdon/Grant/Hauser/center lineups destroy people and look amazing wrt spacing and think "maybe we want more of this?"

The Cs were already willing to bench Smart in the 4th for White, and I was surprised it wasn't Grant or Hauser. The starting group has obvious issues with spacing not being there to the same degree it is on those spaced-out bench units.

Joe likes math so can't imagine much longer. Smart's Q4 benching was due to his 5th foul, right?

Here is my random thought on the starting 5. Just go double BIG (know it doesn't help with spacing) to start Q1/Q3. It lets everyone guard smaller, pushes Al to the 4, Tatum to the 3, etc. They seem to be expending a lot of energy on defense (unsuccessfully) and it isn't letting the JAYs get into transition because they need to help on the defensive boards. Go situational to close games.

The Brogdon/Grant/Sam bench trifecta is a huge weapon this team didn't possess in the playoffs last year. It will put them over the top once Brad figures out the additional BIG/Rob situation. Every Hauser 3, defensive stop(s), and rebound just buries Pritchard deeper into bench hell.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Last night was a closer game than I would have liked to see, but it was more encouraging than the score would suggest in a few different ways. The Celtics did not shoot well from three (29% for the game), Jayson Tatum overcame a poor shooting night to score 36 points and fill his box score line, and they got excellent games from Brogdon (his best as a Celtic) and a Tatum+bench unit of Tatum, Brogdon, Grant, Hauser, and Kornet.

On the downside, Marcus might have got hurt (wrist) at the end. And big minutes for Horford and Tatum headed into a back to back. Tatum is 4th in the league in minutes per game, which is too much unless he turns out to be a Lebron style iron man. I thought Tatum showed some wear and tear by the end of the playoffs last season, and despite the shortened offseason and the intent for this to be another 100+ game year, they aren't easing off of him in the early going. There's even greater risk with Al at age 35.

Tatum had one type of game he needs to be in the MVP conversation. He shot poorly (8 of 23 from the field, 3 of 10 from three) but Chicago did not have much rim protection going on so he spent the whole game driving and getting fouled, to the toon of setting career higher in FTA (20) and FTM (17). Not many guys can shoot as badly as Tatum did and have an efficient scoring game but by living at the free throw line Tatum did. He also led the team in rebounds (12) and assists (6) and had a steal and a block, while only turning the ball over once.

On the whole it was not a great game for the other starters, although Al did his usual "contribute a bit of everything" with 11 points on decent shooting, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists. And Smart both shot better (and less often) from three (2 of 4) and the Celtics started using him to post up smaller defenders which went well - he scored 12 points on 5-10 shooting overall. Smart picked up his 5th foul midway through the 4th and sat until the very end, at which point he came in for defense and maybe injured himself in a rebounding attempt. (He did not come out of the game but he looked to be favoring the wrist a lot). White had a decent game, not shooting much (3 of 6) but having a steal, 2 blocks, and drawing a key charge. Mostly quiet 16 points for Brown (on 6 of 14 shooting), but someone fed him for a thunderous dunk oveer Vucuvic.

Brogdon had his best game as a Celtic, which I have recently said before but is again true. In 29 minutes, he scored 25 points on 9-10 shooting. And I think his only miss was a contested driving layup that rolled off the rim. He was also 7 of 9 from the line and added 2 points and 4 assists. Like Tatum, Bulls had no one who could keep him out of the paint and he took full advantage. The only blemish on his stal line wasa team leading 4 turnovers, most of which happened in transition I think.

Along with Brogdon and Tatum, the reason for this win was the bench play of Grant, Kornet, and Hauser. Those five players as a unit played well in the late first/early second quarter and the late third/early fourth. At times it was Brown out there with them instead of Tatum and sometimes Horford was out in Kornet's place, but overall that group of 5 played very effectively, as evidenced by their +/-: Hauser, +19 in 18 minutes, Kornet, +17 in 15 minutes, Grant, +15 in 21 minutes, Brogdon, +4 in 29 minutes (he was less effective with the starters), Tatum, +11 in 40 minutes (as was he).

For the first time this season, I saw Hauser hit a three off the dribble (tremendous play, too, he came up from the paint, got the ball, dribbled around a pick and launched). His other attempts were of the catch and shoot variety. Overall, he shot 3-6 from the field, 2 of 4 from 3, 8 points and added 4 rebounds. At one point during the first half it looked for a moment as if he and Kornet were trying to work a 2-man game, which did work that well but did not lead to any turnovers. He works on defense and at rebounding. On the season he is 12-23 from 3 (52%) and 4-7 from the corner (71%).

Kornet had some good moments. He shot 1 of 3 from the field - the make was finishing a lob from Grant in as un-athletic a way as is possible. He only had 3 rebounds, but he also added an assist, 2 steals, and 2 blocks.

 

[chilidawg]

At what point is Mazzulla going to watch the Tatum/Brogdon/Grant/Hauser/center lineups destroy people and look amazing wrt spacing and think "maybe we want more of this?"

The Cs were already willing to bench Smart in the 4th for White, and I was surprised it wasn't Grant or Hauser. The starting group has obvious issues with spacing not being there to the same degree it is on those spaced-out bench units.

I thought GW or Hauser in for White down the stretch made sense too, and then White hit two clutch shots to seal the game. Hat tip to Joe on that one.

 

[pjheff]

The Brogdon/Grant/Sam bench trifecta is a huge weapon this team didn't possess in the playoffs last year. It will put them over the top once Brad figures out the additional BIG/Rob situation. Every Hauser 3, defensive stop(s), and rebound just buries Pritchard deeper into bench hell.

Don’t forget White’s eventual return to the bench once Rob is cleared.

 

[benhogan]

Don’t forget White’s eventual return to the bench once Rob is cleared.

Agreed. They went from thin at PG, to start last season, to being one of the deepest NBA teams at that position within a year. Magic Brad...White will also torch 2nd stringers.

I expect the C's 2nd unit can buy minutes for the starting 5 so this team can be its best during the playoffs. I'm a shrink-wrap Al/TL fan. As we all know the EC playoffs is a war of attrition.

 

[lovegtm]

I thought GW or Hauser in for White down the stretch made sense too, and then White hit two clutch shots to seal the game. Hat tip to Joe on that one.

White made some nice plays, and is a good option to have.

I wonder whether the offense would have felt more open in crunch time with Grant or Hauser spacing for Brogdon to drive against a Bulls team with poor rim protection. Those two command more attention from deep than White.

 

[lovegtm]

Wrt Brogdon lineups:

View: https://twitter.com/HoopsEmpire_/status/1588893241604464642?s=20&t=Z13JFn72SqHoM9Zes8y9cg

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Wrt Brogdon lineups:

• Brogdon + Starters = very bad

My memory (which is far from infallible!) suggests that the MB + starters line-up has a bad net rating because of a couple of 4Q struggles.

(As a side note, I noticed that CLE also almost blew their game down the stretch by taking the air out of the ball and trying to run offense against the Cs with 8 or 9 seconds left. Hopefully at some point analytics will tell coaches that's not a good idea.)

I can't see any reason why the MB + starters would not be super successful, unless (i) that lineup can't guard super quick 1s or (ii) they just go "my turn / your turn" basketball," but I don't see any evidence that MB is that type of player.

 

[chilidawg]

Wrt Brogdon lineups:

View: https://twitter.com/HoopsEmpire_/status/1588893241604464642?s=20&t=Z13JFn72SqHoM9Zes8y9cg

Pretty small ss to make any conclusions. The bench players are going up against other benches, and getting little run at all against tough teams like Cleveland.

 

[Auger34]

Iexpect the C's 2nd unit can buy minutes for the starting 5 so this team can be its best during the playoffs. I'm a shrink-wrap Al/TL fan. As we all know the EC playoffs is a war of attrition.

Yup, I think it’s almost a necessity to shrink-wrap the two of them. At first, I thought the Poeltl idea was kind of pie in the sky and a waste of resources..but I am becoming more and more convinced that that’s a move that they need to make.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Couple of issues there:

1. The issue with Brogdon + starters is either Smart's offense or Brogdon's defense. Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Brogdon himself are all capable enough floor spacing shooters. Smart isn't - and note that he is taking more shots this year. Brogdon, for him part, hasn't played in a defensive system like the Celtics use and has made some obvious mistakes.

2. No Celtic regular has gotten off to a slower start than Smart - that is undoubtedly part of the problem here. He is playing through an injury from the last preseason game and has struggled a lot.

3. There is what economists might call a comparative advantage problem here. Brogdon is a better ball handler/PG than Smart, but he is also better off-ball/shooting than Smart. It's not obviously clear which is better for the offense as a whole. On defense, Smart >>>>>> Brogdon.

I think it is too early to worry too much about this. Smart will get back to his expected level of play, and Brogdon will figure out how to function in the Celtics defense and how to work offensively with the four starters.

But, in the meantime, the Celtics need to continue using/developing the Brogdon led bench units.

 

[benhogan]

White made some nice plays, and is a good option to have.

I wonder whether the offense would have felt more open in crunch time with Grant or Hauser spacing for Brogdon to drive against a Bulls team with poor rim protection. Those two command more attention from deep than White.

Grant is probably the answer there due to experience & size

Yup, I think it’s almost a necessity to shrink-wrap the two of them. At first, I thought the Poeltl idea was kind of pie in the sky and a waste of resources..but I am becoming more and more convinced that that’s a move that they need to make.

Either Poeltl or Vanderbilt is the solution. Just need the Spurs/Jazz to start losing

Vanderbilt is 24, cheap, + another year of control. Long, athletic, high-motor player that has a 7'1" wingspan + 8'10" standing reach. He rebounds/steals/disrupts at a high rate. He's a poor man's Time Lord and could play the dunker, screener, and roller spot on offense. His +/- over the last 2 seasons (~3000 mins) where he split starter/bench player was +5.6 playing for a sub .500 T-wolves team. Over the years, Brad has valued large sample size +/- when playing/acquiring/trading players

If the cost was both PP + Begarin rights (+ salary) to make either trade happen would you do it?


Keith Smith's take on Poeltl's extension options, which impacts his tradeability
https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba/next-contract-series-jakob-poeltl-1654/

 

[radsoxfan]

Couple of issues there:

1. The issue with Brogdon + starters is either Smart's offense or Brogdon's defense. Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Brogdon himself are all capable enough floor spacing shooters. Smart isn't - and note that he is taking more shots this year. Brogdon, for him part, hasn't played in a defensive system like the Celtics use and has made some obvious mistakes.

2. No Celtic regular has gotten off to a slower start than Smart - that is undoubtedly part of the problem here. He is playing through an injury from the last preseason game and has struggled a lot.

3. There is what economists might call a comparative advantage problem here. Brogdon is a better ball handler/PG than Smart, but he is also better off-ball/shooting than Smart. It's not obviously clear which is better for the offense as a whole. On defense, Smart >>>>>> Brogdon.

I think it is too early to worry too much about this. Smart will get back to his expected level of play, and Brogdon will figure out how to function in the Celtics defense and how to work offensively with the four starters.

But, in the meantime, the Celtics need to continue using/developing the Brogdon led bench units.

Agree with this post, but the biggest issue with the numbers is small sample size. Reading too much into it will have them chasing their tail.

Smart has been bad, he is going to drag down any unit he is on until his play improves.

The takeaway from the tweet that "Brogdon + starters = very bad" as any sort of significantly predictive datapoint is silly.

 

[jezza1918]

Couple of issues there:

1. The issue with Brogdon + starters is either Smart's offense or Brogdon's defense. Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Brogdon himself are all capable enough floor spacing shooters. Smart isn't - and note that he is taking more shots this year. Brogdon, for him part, hasn't played in a defensive system like the Celtics use and has made some obvious mistakes.

2. No Celtic regular has gotten off to a slower start than Smart - that is undoubtedly part of the problem here. He is playing through an injury from the last preseason game and has struggled a lot.

3. There is what economists might call a comparative advantage problem here. Brogdon is a better ball handler/PG than Smart, but he is also better off-ball/shooting than Smart. It's not obviously clear which is better for the offense as a whole. On defense, Smart >>>>>> Brogdon.

I think it is too early to worry too much about this. Smart will get back to his expected level of play, and Brogdon will figure out how to function in the Celtics defense and how to work offensively with the four starters.

But, in the meantime, the Celtics need to continue using/developing the Brogdon led bench units.

Agree on whole but small nitpick, I'm seeing Smart at 9.6 FGA attempts (in 33:22 min/game) this year compared to 10.1 FGA (in 32:20 min/game) last year.

edit: given you're talking about floor spacing, you may be referring to his 3pa attempts, which are indeed up a tick.

 

[lovegtm]

Grant is probably the answer there due to experience & size


Either Poeltl or Vanderbilt is the solution. Just need the Spurs/Jazz to start losing

Vanderbilt is 24, cheap, + another year of control. Long, athletic, high-motor player that has a 7'1" wingspan + 8'10" standing reach. He rebounds/steals/disrupts at a high rate. He's a poor man's Time Lord and could play the dunker, screener, and roller spot on offense. His +/- over the last 2 seasons (~3000 mins) where he split starter/bench player was +5.6 playing for a sub .500 T-wolves team. Over the years, Brad has valued large sample size +/- when playing/acquiring/trading players

If the cost was both PP + Begarin rights (+ salary) to make either trade happen would you do it?


Keith Smith's take on Poeltl's extension options, which impacts his tradeability
https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba/next-contract-series-jakob-poeltl-1654/

FWIW, 8-10 is a bad standing reach for a C (even meh for a PF). Grant's is 8-9. I haven't watched Vanderbilt enough to know how he plays with that though: he might be fine as a smaller C, given that he can rebound.

I'd do PP+Begarin+filler for him if he is what you say. For Poeltl, I'd do the same (filler would be Gallo probably) but then would have to include 2nds at least to get it done.

 

[lovegtm]

Couple of issues there:

1. The issue with Brogdon + starters is either Smart's offense or Brogdon's defense. Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Brogdon himself are all capable enough floor spacing shooters. Smart isn't - and note that he is taking more shots this year. Brogdon, for him part, hasn't played in a defensive system like the Celtics use and has made some obvious mistakes.

2. No Celtic regular has gotten off to a slower start than Smart - that is undoubtedly part of the problem here. He is playing through an injury from the last preseason game and has struggled a lot.

3. There is what economists might call a comparative advantage problem here. Brogdon is a better ball handler/PG than Smart, but he is also better off-ball/shooting than Smart. It's not obviously clear which is better for the offense as a whole. On defense, Smart >>>>>> Brogdon.

I think it is too early to worry too much about this. Smart will get back to his expected level of play, and Brogdon will figure out how to function in the Celtics defense and how to work offensively with the four starters.

But, in the meantime, the Celtics need to continue using/developing the Brogdon led bench units.

Watching the games, it seems likely that the issue is Smart's offense. The floor isn't nearly as open when Brogdon plays with the starters, and it's not like Chicago's starters are way better defensively than their bench units (might be the opposite, since Caruso plays all the bench minutes). Smart spacing vs. Hauser/Grant really creates a different floor.

 

[lovegtm]

Couple of issues there:

1. The issue with Brogdon + starters is either Smart's offense or Brogdon's defense. Tatum, Brown, Horford, and Brogdon himself are all capable enough floor spacing shooters. Smart isn't - and note that he is taking more shots this year. Brogdon, for him part, hasn't played in a defensive system like the Celtics use and has made some obvious mistakes.

2. No Celtic regular has gotten off to a slower start than Smart - that is undoubtedly part of the problem here. He is playing through an injury from the last preseason game and has struggled a lot.

3. There is what economists might call a comparative advantage problem here. Brogdon is a better ball handler/PG than Smart, but he is also better off-ball/shooting than Smart. It's not obviously clear which is better for the offense as a whole. On defense, Smart >>>>>> Brogdon.

I think it is too early to worry too much about this. Smart will get back to his expected level of play, and Brogdon will figure out how to function in the Celtics defense and how to work offensively with the four starters.

But, in the meantime, the Celtics need to continue using/developing the Brogdon led bench units.

Watching the games, it seems likely that the issue is Smart's offense. The floor isn't nearly as open when Brogdon plays with the starters, and it's not like Chicago's starters are way better defensively than their bench units (might be the opposite, since Caruso plays all the bench minutes). Smart spacing vs. Hauser/Grant really creates a different floor layout.

 

[benhogan]

FWIW, 8-10 is a bad standing reach for a C (even meh for a PF). Grant's is 8-9. I haven't watched Vanderbilt enough to know how he plays with that though: he might be fine as a smaller C, given that he can rebound.

I'd do PP+Begarin+filler for him if he is what you say. For Poeltl, I'd do the same (filler would be Gallo probably) but then would have to include 2nds at least to get it done.

Poeltl would be that classic 5.JV would be an active switchy 4 that can guard on the perimeter, gather boards, and let Brown release/help Horford. You're right on JVs standing reach & would be an average shot blocker. TL is so unique that it's hard to find that player, but his continuous injury history has to dissuade Brad from putting eggs in that basket. Going forward, it's probably a coin toss TL is ever healthy in the playoffs.

Agree, Begarin should be on the table. JV is tradeable now vs JP (Dec 15th). Adding them wouldn't prevent Brad from looking for more help in Jan/Feb

Watching Begarin in SL has me thinking his value is somewhere around a late first-rounder

 

[lovegtm]

Poeltl would be that classic 5.JV would be an active switchy 4 that can guard on the perimeter, gather boards, and let Brown release/help Horford. You're right on JVs standing reach & would be an average shot blocker. TL is so unique that it's hard to find that player, but his continuous injury history has to dissuade Brad from putting eggs in that basket. Going forward, it's probably a coin toss TL is ever healthy in the playoffs.

Agree, Begarin should be on the table. JV is tradeable now vs JP (Dec 15th). Adding them wouldn't prevent Brad from looking for more help in Jan/Feb

Watching Begarin in SL has me thinking his value is somewhere around a late first-rounder

Late 1sts always have more value imo, just because the team can choose the guy themselves and dream.

Wrt TL and the C position: agree that the Celtics need to assume he'll never be healthy again. Fortunately, his contract is not a problem with where the cap is headed, so he's this permanent upside call option.

But given all that, I think the Cs need to invest real resources at C. I'd love to see someone healthy and dependable in the $10-16M range, which is reasonable since Horford's deal comes off the books next year.

 

[Imbricus]

But given all that, I think the Cs need to invest real resources at C. I'd love to see someone healthy and dependable in the $10-16M range

Yes, center should be the priority now, and I think Brad's been putting out feelers. I'd like to see them get someone younger, a bit raw, cost-controlled, who's big with a good motor. Vanderbilt looks a bit small; I don't think we need a power forward as much as a guy who's more the size of Embiid and Giannis.

Pritchard is an obvious trade chip -- I've been a fan of his, but he really is hopelessly buried, barring injuries, and he showed us last year that he's not as effective on a few minutes a night (which he's not even getting now). I think Pritch could be a nice pickup for some team, and that he could flourish on a team like Toronto, that has good size and can get away with a small ballhandler/shooter type. Hauser's taking the sniper role, and Brogdon/Smart/White are the ballhandlers, so Pritch is definitely on the outside looking in.

 

[Auger34]

Grant is probably the answer there due to experience & size


Either Poeltl or Vanderbilt is the solution. Just need the Spurs/Jazz to start losing

Vanderbilt is 24, cheap, + another year of control. Long, athletic, high-motor player that has a 7'1" wingspan + 8'10" standing reach. He rebounds/steals/disrupts at a high rate. He's a poor man's Time Lord and could play the dunker, screener, and roller spot on offense. His +/- over the last 2 seasons (~3000 mins) where he split starter/bench player was +5.6 playing for a sub .500 T-wolves team. Over the years, Brad has valued large sample size +/- when playing/acquiring/trading players

If the cost was both PP + Begarin rights (+ salary) to make either trade happen would you do it?


Keith Smith's take on Poeltl's extension options, which impacts his tradeability
https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba/next-contract-series-jakob-poeltl-1654/

I think it would likely be multiple 2nds over Begarin but either way I do that deal. I like Pritchard but he just doesn’t matter much to this current team.

TBH, I would trade Pritchard and a protected 1st for Poeltl. I think this teams championship aspirations are heavily tied to Horford being fresh and ready come playoff time .

 

[Smokey Joe]

Late 1sts always have more value imo, just because the team can choose the guy themselves and dream.

Wrt TL and the C position: agree that the Celtics need to assume he'll never be healthy again. Fortunately, his contract is not a problem with where the cap is headed, so he's this permanent upside call option.

But given all that, I think the Cs need to invest real resources at C. I'd love to see someone healthy and dependable in the $10-16M range, which is reasonable since Horford's deal comes off the books next year.

The problem with Poeltl is that he is an ufa next year and has already declined the maximum extension he can get (14 million/year). He feels that he can do better in free agency so getting him is a rental.

 

[The Mort Report]

I know everyone wants to see the team improve the front court now, but the team probably only has the assets/contracts for one impact move. Unless an absolute steal presents itself, I'm fairly certain the team will wait til it nears the deadline. Like Tatum said, he wants to win every game but a couple extra losses in 2022 aren't important to their main goal. I'm sure some will have seeding concerns, but this team should still finish in the top 3. Who knows what the team's needs will look like come February, and plugging the biggest hole on this team then is more important than fixing a problem now

 

[mcpickl]

Agree with this post, but the biggest issue with the numbers is small sample size. Reading too much into it will have them chasing their tail.

Smart has been bad, he is going to drag down any unit he is on until his play improves.

The takeaway from the tweet that "Brogdon + starters = very bad" as any sort of significantly predictive datapoint is silly.

The Brogdon + starters lineups are still a small sample size, but Brogdon in place of White is their second most used lineup. In 25 minutes they're a minus 30. Brogdon in place of Smart is another minus 5 in 5 minutes.

So far it's been awful, but I don't think it proves those lineups can't work. It also doesn't prove Smart has been bad, he's a positive with the starters and pretty much every non-Brogdon lineup that includes anyone else in the rotation.

So far Brogdon + Smart has been terrible and most combos of White with either, but not both, of those two guys have been very good.

I think it just shows, Smart has starting off shooting cold from three, and White has started off shooting hot from three.

 

[radsoxfan]

The Brogdon + starters lineups are still a small sample size, but Brogdon in place of White is their second most used lineup. In 25 minutes they're a minus 30. Brogdon in place of Smart is another minus 5 in 5 minutes.

That’s kind of my point… if the 2nd most used lineup has 25 minutes of time together, I just wouldn’t read too much into it.

Between Brogdon getting used to his teammates and any random hot or cold streak that will happen in 2 quarters of basketball, it’s interesting to me but not particularly meaningful/predictive.

Will be worth watching going forward as sample sizes get larger, but at the moment it doesn’t really tell me much about what will or won’t work.

 

[chilidawg]

The Brogdon + starters lineups are still a small sample size, but Brogdon in place of White is their second most used lineup. In 25 minutes they're a minus 30. Brogdon in place of Smart is another minus 5 in 5 minutes.

So far it's been awful, but I don't think it proves those lineups can't work. It also doesn't prove Smart has been bad, he's a positive with the starters and pretty much every non-Brogdon lineup that includes anyone else in the rotation.

So far Brogdon + Smart has been terrible and most combos of White with either, but not both, of those two guys have been very good.

I think it just shows, Smart has starting off shooting cold from three, and White has started off shooting hot from three.

Lineup data probably isn't worth looking at this early, but it's 33F and raining, so I can't help myself.

Any combination of Smart, Horford, Tatum and Brown, in 2/3/4 man combos, is a negative. Add DWhite into any of those and it becomes a positive. Brogdon/Hauser/GWill/Kornet with either Tatum or Brown have been excellent.

Since Tatum and Brown have an overall net rating around 0, and Horford and Smart are well below, I'd say the latter two haven't been particularly good. Smart's shooting is a good part of that, but they also have the worst DRatings of the regulars as well. Smart I think is dinged. Both could maybe use a game or two off and/or fewer in game minutes.

 

[Auger34]

I know everyone wants to see the team improve the front court now, but the team probably only has the assets/contracts for one impact move. Unless an absolute steal presents itself, I'm fairly certain the team will wait til it nears the deadline. Like Tatum said, he wants to win every game but a couple extra losses in 2022 aren't important to their main goal. I'm sure some will have seeding concerns, but this team should still finish in the top 3. Who knows what the team's needs will look like come February, and plugging the biggest hole on this team then is more important than fixing a problem now

I’m not quite sure I understand your point here.

Are you arguing they shouldn’t make a move now because there may be an injury to one of Tatum/Brown so they should save their chips in case they need to move them for an injury replacement?

Because short of that, their biggest hole is going to be the front court still and making a move now allows them to cut Horford’s minutes even more.

 

[The Mort Report]

I’m not quite sure I understand your point here.

Are you arguing they shouldn’t make a move now because there may be an injury to one of Tatum/Brown so they should save their chips in case they need to move them for an injury replacement?

Because short of that, their biggest hole is going to be the front court still and making a move now allows them to cut Horford’s minutes even more.

Oh god no on the Jays, they don't have the assets to replace them even if that type of player became available. I'm just saying that come end of January, if Rob looks healthy, but one of the 3 guards goes down, what's a more important need? It's up for debate, but I think I would be more comfortable with Grant getting stretched a little too thin in the playoffs compared to PP.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Blake has a new offensive move. I'm not sure what to call it, but it is this:

1. Receive a pass.
2. Go up for the dunk as if you are still BLAKE!!!
3. Realize that you aren't going to reach the rim.
4. Adjust to an odd looking layup.

View: https://twitter.com/Sports_24x7_/status/1589052112528211968?s=20&t=2EeBWCAohL7vOJKNGf-GrQ

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Brogdon is playing incredibly well right now. He's obviously earned a place in the closing lineup, but I'd love to see that lineup have a shooter in place of Smart/White, just because Brogdon is so dynamic on a spaced floor.

On a different note, I thought that the defense was better than the numbers indicate last night. They gang rebounded hard, and a lot of Chicago's points came from hitting tons of midrange shots, along with the refs deciding that defending DeRozan was an automatic foul. If DeMar got that whistle every night, he'd be a 10-time MVP.

(The Cs did drop too deep on DeRozan early, before making a clear adjustment in the 2nd?/3rd? quarter to have the bigs come up to touch.)

Is Brogdon playing incredibly well or is he simply the same incredibly good player we’ve seen for years when he’s healthy? This isn’t some rotation guy/borderline starter like Derrick White……Brogdon, when healthy, is someone who is trying to sneak into a couple All-Star games if he’s on a team where he can put up the numbers to do so. I don’t have him far from Hayward when we got him from Utah…..maybe a tiny notch below and that’s it.

Edit: That clip above was Blake Griffin…..or Jared Sullinger?

 

[Euclis20]

The defense is a problem that needs to be fixed, but at least for the moment, they are first in the league in PPG at 118.8 (they finished 12th last year).

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The defense is a problem that needs to be fixed, but at least for the moment, they are first in the league in PPG at 118.8 (they finished 12th last year).

Yeah at the end of the first half there at least 3 instances (IIRC) where they just left someone wide open because of miscommunication. I know it's early but it's not like this is a new defensive system.

 

[radsoxfan]

Is Brogdon playing incredibly well or is he simply the same incredibly good player we’ve seen for years when he’s healthy? This isn’t some rotation guy/borderline starter like Derrick White……Brogdon, when healthy, is someone who is trying to sneak into a couple All-Star games if he’s on a team where he can put up the numbers to do so. I don’t have him far from Hayward when we got him from Utah…..maybe a tiny notch below and that’s it.

Edit: That clip above was Blake Griffin…..or Jared Sullinger?

I'm a big Brogdon fan but Hayward pre-injury was definitely a clear level above. Gordon could have been a top 10-15 All-NBA guy, perennial All-Star type player.

He has made a decent carer for himself but his injury clearly had a major impact on his ceiling.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I'm a big Brogdon fan but Hayward pre-injury was definitely a clear level above. Gordon could have been a top 10-15 All-NBA guy, perennial All-Star type player.

He has made a decent carer for himself but his injury clearly had a major impact on his ceiling. View attachment 57264

I had Hayward at his ceiling during his career year prior to free agency. I’m not even sure he cracked the Top-20 that year and feel his most likely medium was what he was the prior season……which is close to where I had Brogdon during his healthy years.

 

[radsoxfan]

I had Hayward at his ceiling during his career year prior to free agency. I’m not even sure he cracked the Top-20 that year and feel his most likely medium was what he was the prior season……which is close to where I had Brogdon during his healthy years.

We'll of course never know for sure, but I had GH at age 26 entering his peak and think his next 3-4 years would have been WAY above anything Brogdon does.

Still a big fan of Brogdon.