2020 TB12: The Decision 2020

How Would You Feel if Brady Left?

  • Completely devastated

    Votes: 24 13.0%
  • Very disappointed but still got BB

    Votes: 84 45.4%
  • Hold my beer until we know our next QB

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Eh, this may turn out to be a plus

    Votes: 32 17.3%
  • Let the Stidham era begin!

    Votes: 16 8.6%

  • Total voters
    185
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Deathofthebambino

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Plus, the warm, humid weather would be better for his old joints and bones. :)
Well, there is the fact that Brady usually sucks in Florida. See the "Miami Dolphins."

Guys, I will literally give up trying to figure out anything in the NFL if Brady ends up with the Giants. They just drafted Daniel Jones with the 6th overall pick in the draft last year, and he had a good enough season that he'll probably finish in the top 3 of the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting (if it weren't for his fumbling issues, a lot of which was caused by that brutal offensive line, he'd probably win it). The quickest way to NFL success is finding a rookie QB on a rookie deal for 5 years and spread the 20+ million you're saving on the cap around to the rest of the team (see Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Dak Prescott and every other good young QB in the league in the last 5-10 years, going back to Russell Wilson's rookie deal which got Seattle 2 trips to the SB and a win). Benching or getting rid of Jones and spending 25mil on Brady would literally be insanity for a team that just isn't competitive already. They need a defense and an offensive line.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The 2020 number on Brees is a void year, same as how the Pats structured Brady’s deal. His deal was essentially a 2yr, $50mn deal (2018-19 with a void year added in ‘20 for cap purposes, and another in ‘21 added later) with $27mn guaranteed at signing and he was paid the full $50mn over the past 2 years.
I forgot Brees is a free agent. Maybe Bill should sign Drew and Tom can go play with Sean!
 

OurF'ingCity

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Well, there is the fact that Brady usually sucks in Florida. See the "Miami Dolphins."

Guys, I will literally give up trying to figure out anything in the NFL if Brady ends up with the Giants. They just drafted Daniel Jones with the 6th overall pick in the draft last year, and he had a good enough season that he'll probably finish in the top 3 of the Offensive Rookie of the Year voting (if it weren't for his fumbling issues, a lot of which was caused by that brutal offensive line, he'd probably win it). The quickest way to NFL success is finding a rookie QB on a rookie deal for 5 years and spread the 20+ million you're saving on the cap around to the rest of the team (see Lamar Jackson, Pat Mahomes, Dak Prescott and every other good young QB in the league in the last 5-10 years, going back to Russell Wilson's rookie deal which got Seattle 2 trips to the SB and a win). Benching or getting rid of Jones and spending 25mil on Brady would literally be insanity for a team that just isn't competitive already. They need a defense and an offensive line.
Agreed - if I was a Giants fan I'd be livid if they signed Brady. They'd be destroying their cap space, probably irreparably damaging their relationship with Jones, and even with Brady they would be far from a lock to even win their division, much less make a deep run in the playoffs over the next two-three years and then after that they'd have to start from scratch at the QB position again.

Tennessee probably makes the most sense from a competition standpoint and the Chargers probably make the most sense from a lifestyle (and probably money) standpoint - if Brady ends up on a team other than the Titans, Chargers or Pats I'd be quite surprised.
 

Harry Hooper

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Just heard a snippet from OMF on WEEI. They're going with Brady won't get an offer from the Pats greater than 1 year, and it will be in the $15-20 million range. What they are basing this on, I have no idea.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Speaking of which, it's my understanding that Mahomes is set for an extension. This former NFL executive thinks he will get upwards of $165M in guaranteed money before next season starts. Between Mahomes this year and Lamar next year, the QB market is going to explode.
The Chiefs basically own his rights for this year and 2021, so they don't necessarily have to work out an extension with him, but they'd be pretty insane not to do so due to the cap hits. They have him under contract for 2020, which pays him 2.7mil (with a 5.2mil cap hit). They they have the "transition tag" they can use in 2021 (basically a club option), which will pay him the average of the top 10 at his position (about 24mil). If they sign him to say, 5 years, 200 million in this offseason, they can spread out the entire 200 million over the entire 7 years, as opposed to waiting and then having to pay a 40mil per year cap hit over 5 years.

Drafting the right QB is so fucking important in the NFL.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Just heard a snippet from OMF on WEEI. They're going with Brady won't get an offer from the Pats greater than 1 year, and it will be in the $15-20 million range. What they are basing this on, I have no idea.
If that's true, then he's gone. Of course, it's OMF, so it's probably not worth thinking about at this point.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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The Chiefs basically own his rights for this year and 2021, so they don't necessarily have to work out an extension with him, but they'd be pretty insane not to do so due to the cap hits. They have him under contract for 2020, which pays him 2.7mil (with a 5.2mil cap hit). They they have the "transition tag" they can use in 2021 (basically a club option), which will pay him the average of the top 10 at his position (about 24mil). If they sign him to say, 5 years, 200 million in this offseason, they can spread out the entire 200 million over the entire 7 years, as opposed to waiting and then having to pay a 40mil per year cap hit over 5 years.

Drafting the right QB is so fucking important in the NFL.
Not giving him an extension when he asks for it is also a good way to ensure that Mahomes walks when his rookie contract expires.
 

tims4wins

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The Chiefs basically own his rights for this year and 2021, so they don't necessarily have to work out an extension with him, but they'd be pretty insane not to do so due to the cap hits. They have him under contract for 2020, which pays him 2.7mil (with a 5.2mil cap hit). They they have the "transition tag" they can use in 2021 (basically a club option), which will pay him the average of the top 10 at his position (about 24mil). If they sign him to say, 5 years, 200 million in this offseason, they can spread out the entire 200 million over the entire 7 years, as opposed to waiting and then having to pay a 40mil per year cap hit over 5 years.

Drafting the right QB is so fucking important in the NFL.
Can't they just exercise the 5th year option for 1st round picks in 2021? They don't need a transition tag.

That said I completely agree they'd be smart to start the clock on spreading the bonus money now instead of in two years.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Not giving him an extension when he asks for it is also a good way to ensure that Mahomes walks when his rookie contract expires.
I look forward to seeing what Mahomes does when they have to lose the skill position players around him, so he can get his 200million.

Tyreek Hill has a cap hit of 17.65million in 2020 (then 15mil in 2021 and 20mil in 2022). They can cut him after 2020 and pay about 30mil in dead money over 3 years.
Travis Kelce has a cap hit of 10million in 2020 and 9mil in 2021, then he's a free agent.
Sammy Watkins has a cap hit of 21million in 2020, but they can cut him and eat 7mil in dead cap money this year.

Then on the other side of the ball:

Frank Clark is going to make 22.7mil in 2020 and 24.7mil in 2021. If they cut him in either of those years, the dead cap money is 37.8m and 15.6mil respectively, so he's not going anywhere.
Tyran Mathieu is going to make 16.3mil in 2020 and 19.7mil in 2021 (if they cut him, it's 21mil and 5mil, so he's not going anywhere this offseason, but maybe next)
Erik Fisher is going to make almost 15mil in 2020 and 2021.
Anthony Hitchens is going to make 12.6mil in 2020.

So they basically have half their salary cap tied up in 7 players, and none of those players is named Patrick Mahomes. When they resign him, there is going to be a bloodbath on that roster.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Can't they just exercise the 5th year option for 1st round picks in 2021? They don't need a transition tag.

That said I completely agree they'd be smart to start the clock on spreading the bonus money now instead of in two years.
Yeah, I wrote that poorly. It's a 5th year club option, but it's based on the transition tag amount (although I don't think another team can't make him an offer that the Chiefs have to match). This is from the article WBCD posted earlier:

The Chiefs are likely to quickly exercise the fifth-year option on Mahomes as a 2017 first-round pick (they have between the last regular-season game this season and May 3, 2020 to do so). That will lock Mahomes in at his scheduled $2.7 million in 2020, and for 2021, as a top-10 pick in his draft class, he would be at the transition tag amount — the average salary of the top 10 quarterbacks in 2020 (estimated at $24 million).
 

tims4wins

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Yeah, I wrote that poorly. It's a 5th year club option, but it's based on the transition tag amount (although I don't think another team can't make him an offer that the Chiefs have to match). This is from the article WBCD posted earlier:

The Chiefs are likely to quickly exercise the fifth-year option on Mahomes as a 2017 first-round pick (they have between the last regular-season game this season and May 3, 2020 to do so). That will lock Mahomes in at his scheduled $2.7 million in 2020, and for 2021, as a top-10 pick in his draft class, he would be at the transition tag amount — the average salary of the top 10 quarterbacks in 2020 (estimated at $24 million).
Got it, thanks. Even the 2021 figure is a huge jump vs. current. Will be interesting to see how the Chiefs play it. They better win a title this year or next, because otherwise they're going to go through a bit of a down period similar to the 2015-2018 Seahawks.
 

Super Nomario

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Isn't the spreading out of signing bonuses for cap purposes limited to five years?
It is. There are other ways to spread money over longer periods, though, like roster bonuses.

It's worth noting that the CBA expires at the end of the season.There are some rules about contracts which span from one CBA to another (they can't increase more than 30% year-on-year for instance). And the Chiefs may expect that the conditions on the next CBA are more favorable and want to wait to extend Mahomes. I bet we see less action this offseason than usual with the CBA's expiration looming.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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It is. There are other ways to spread money over longer periods, though, like roster bonuses.

It's worth noting that the CBA expires at the end of the season.There are some rules about contracts which span from one CBA to another (they can't increase more than 30% year-on-year for instance). And the Chiefs may expect that the conditions on the next CBA are more favorable and want to wait to extend Mahomes. I bet we see less action this offseason than usual with the CBA's expiration looming.
Not to turn this into Mahomes thread, I didn't know this until just this moment but Rappaport reported that Chiefs and Mahomes expect to enter into an extension this off-season. https://sportsnaut.com/2020/01/report-patrick-mahomes-expected-to-land-contract-extension-this-offseason/

Bringing it back to Tommy, I expect that Mahomes contract will raise the pay for free agent QBs.
 

lexrageorge

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I look forward to seeing what Mahomes does when they have to lose the skill position players around him, so he can get his 200million.

Tyreek Hill has a cap hit of 17.65million in 2020 (then 15mil in 2021 and 20mil in 2022). They can cut him after 2020 and pay about 30mil in dead money over 3 years.
...
If they cut Hill after 2020, they will only incur $5.3M in dead cap charge. Most of his guarantees will have been amortized by then.
 

johnmd20

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If they cut Hill after 2020, they will only incur $5.3M in dead cap charge. Most of his guarantees will have been amortized by then.
Watkins is obviously gone from the Chiefs after this year and it's fair to say Hill might not make it to 2021 with the Chiefs. Someone had it right up above, the Chiefs are going to have no money to move things around. If Mahomes gets paid that much, you can pencil that team in for mediocracy for his career.
 

BaseballJones

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Watkins is obviously gone from the Chiefs after this year and it's fair to say Hill might not make it to 2021 with the Chiefs. Someone had it right up above, the Chiefs are going to have no money to move things around. If Mahomes gets paid that much, you can pencil that team in for mediocracy for his career.
If he’s as good as he appears to be, they’ll be fine. The NFC playoff field had five guys making big money. Peyton led great teams even while making enormous dollars. It can be done but your QB better be truly outstanding. Mahomes, I believe, really is.
 

Harry Hooper

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King's article still hasn't been corrected, "New England was 4-6 in its last 10 games."
 

Reverend

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King's article still hasn't been corrected, "New England was 4-6 in its last 10 games."
Some of these guys basically have tenure no matter how wrong they are and for how long. People have literally measured this crap.

It’s kinda stunning. And people complain when third grade teachers want the same.
 

Reverend

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If he’s as good as he appears to be, they’ll be fine. The NFC playoff field had five guys making big money. Peyton led great teams even while making enormous dollars. It can be done but your QB better be truly outstanding. Mahomes, I believe, really is.
I didn’t know you were still here.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Some of these guys basically have tenure no matter how wrong they are and for how long. People have literally measured this crap.
And guess what? This is where I am with Brady.

The lip service that fans paid him for years appears to be just that for quite a few people.

Was there not a universal agreement regarding this man? He gets to stay as long as he wants and go out on his own terms. Full stop.

A lot of people that echoed that same idea over the years seem to be putting a whole lot of caveats behind his ability to return to the Patriots. I dont care if bringing Brady back hamstrings the cap, makes them a non-contender for the next 15 years, or makes it so we never see another Patriots SB in our lifetime. Hes given us all the Lombardi's we could have ever wanted, and was the most consistent (non-family division) force in most of our lives for 20 years.

Ask what he wants and give it to him. Consequences be damned.
 

BaseballJones

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For some perspective on what Brady might want, here are his contracts over the years with New England. Some of the contract negotiations were difficult, and some were pretty smooth sailing. One time he received the top contract in the NFL, but most of the time, he took below-market deals in order to remain with the Patriots. But in Tom E. Curran's piece below, we see some of what has taken place over the years between Brady and the Pats.


2000
Deal: 3 years, $864,000
Signing Bonus: $38,400
As the 199th overall pick in the 2000 draft, Brady’s deal was commensurately modest. By comparison — and as an indicator of how the game has grown in 19 seasons — the 199th pick in 2019 was defensive end Gerri Green.
His deal is four years and $2.52M. His signing bonus is $157,608. His rookie salary is $495K. Brady’s was $193K.
Brady wouldn’t see the end of that rookie deal, as it was redone in August of 2002 after he guided the Patriots to their first Super Bowl win at the end of the 2001 season.

2002
Deal: 5 years, $30.52M
Signing Bonus: $10M
In the last week of August of 2002, Brady got a new deal that would take him through 2006. As part of that deal, Brady would receive $250K for every AFC Championship win and $250K for every Super Bowl win. He’d realize $1M from those incentives thanks to the 2003 and 2004 seasons. He kept his initial 2002 salary of $375K, but the salaries jumped to $3.1M, $5.5M, $5.5M and $6M from 2003 through 2006. The Patriots tinkered with the deal in 2003 and 2004 to grab more cap space and dumped money forward so his cap charges in ‘05 and ’06 were slated to be $10M and $14M.
Lucrative though that may have seemed for a player that had started just 14 regular-season games, Drew Bledsoe’s deal with the Patriots signed just 18 months prior was for 10 years and $103M. So Brady was a bargain.

2005
Deal: 6 years, $60M
Signing Bonus: $26.5M ($14.5 signing bonus, $12M roster bonus in 2006)
This deal, which was slated to take Brady through the 2010 season, got contentious. It was signed on May 4, but the hangup and haggling began in late February. At issue? The Patriots wanted to pay Brady his proposed $24 million signing bonus in four installments. More than half of the bonus money would come in the first two years of the deal, but unpaid bonus money in the later years of the contract would not be guaranteed, meaning if Brady were injured and couldn’t keep playing, portions of the $24 M bonus would never be realized. Writing in March of 2005 for the Providence Journal I noted that, “At this point, the negotiations aren't quite acrimonious. But Brady isn't blind to the fact he's willing to meet the Patriots halfway on salary but is not being met halfway on the bonus.” Peyton Manning at the time was on a seven-year, $98M deal he signed in 2004 that had $34.5M guaranteed.

2010
Deal: 4-year, $72M extension
Signing Bonus: $48.5M guaranteed
It took a car accident to push this deal over the finish line. With uncertainty because of a looming uncapped year in 2011, the Patriots and Brady worked hard to get a deal done prior to the start of the 2010 regular season when Brady would enter his walk year. A Thursday morning car accident caused Robert Kraft to consider the fragility of things and decide to get the deal done. The four years and $72M were for the 2011 through 2014 seasons and it had a record amount of guaranteed money and was the biggest contract in NFL history (briefly). The deal was announced at halftime of the Thursday night season opener on NBC by Peter King. After the deal was complete, Kraft said, "You’re never sure (when the deal will get finished) because it’s hard. You’ve got two sides. You’ve got agents, but everyone’s trying to help, but it gets complicated, but now, please God, he’ll be the quarterback here for 15 years. which is unusual." The day after Brady signed the deal, Bill Belichick said at his morning press conference, “There is no quarterback I’d rather have than Tom Brady.”

2013
Deal: 3-year, $27M extension
Guaranteed Money: $33M
After an MVP season in 2010, a Super Bowl trip in 2011 and a trip to the AFC Championship in 2012, Brady reworked and extended his deal just before the 2013 league year began. He gave the Patriots a huge financial break in agreeing to the three-year, $27M extension. The agreement saved the Patriots $8M in cap room in 2013 and $7M in cap room in 2014. Brady’s hope at the time was the team would re-sign Wes Welker, who was on the verge of free agency. Instead, Welker wanted to test the market and the Patriots signed Danny Amendola. Still, Brady’s deal gave the Patriots huge cap flexibility. His salaries from 2015 through 2017 were $13M, $14M and $15M. Including 2013 and 2014 — which he was already under agreement for — the deal’s maximum value was $57M over five years with $33M guaranteed.
“I was just trying to stay ahead of the curve," said Robert Kraft at the time. "If we were going to have to pay him elite-quarterback money and have elite-quarterback cap numbers, I just didn't think we would be able to build a team. We don't want to have a team where we're paying 18 to 20 percent to a player on the cap. I wanted to do something elegant that would work for everybody. I had been talking to him off and on for maybe 18 months, about how I wanted him to finish his career here, and about how we both have to be smart about it. I just really want him to end his career a Patriot.”

2016
Deal: 2-year, $41M extension
Signing Bonus: $28M
In March 2016, a little less than two years after Bill Belichick pointed out Brady’s age and contract status on the night Jimmy Garoppolo was drafted, Brady signed a two-year extension to take him through the 2019 season. The deal tacked on the 2018 and 2019 seasons but the Patriots covered themselves when the deal was done. The Patriots had $1M team options prior to the 2018 and 2019 seasons which gave them an out if Garoppolo unseated Brady. He didn’t. And he was dealt at the trade deadline in October 2017. The thinking at the time was that Brady didn’t want to rock the boat — and was leery of Jimmy G. — so he did another team-friendly deal.

2019
Deal: 1 year, $23M
Signing Bonus: $8M
With his deal set to expire at the end of the 2019 season, Brady had to wait for the Patriots to get around to figuring out an offer. It finally started to come together in July but the eventual result was anything but a boon for Brady. The Patriots merely took his $14M salary for 2019, turned that into $1.75M for 2019 and then converted that money into a signing bonus of $20M that the team could divvy up the $20M in three equal prorated portions for 2020 and 2021 seasons. The Patriots got to holler “extension” without giving Brady a true one (the contract voids in March of 2020). Brady — who’s gone nearly a decade without being paid as an elite player — pushed for a clause that prevented the team from putting the franchise or transition tag on him. The modest raise and the Patriots’ resistance to a longer term rankled the Brady camp which — in turn — got that clause that may set Brady free in early March.

- Tom E. Curran
 

Valek123

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And guess what? This is where I am with Brady.

The lip service that fans paid him for years appears to be just that for quite a few people.

Was there not a universal agreement regarding this man? He gets to stay as long as he wants and go out on his own terms. Full stop.

A lot of people that echoed that same idea over the years seem to be putting a whole lot of caveats behind his ability to return to the Patriots. I dont care if bringing Brady back hamstrings the cap, makes them a non-contender for the next 15 years, or makes it so we never see another Patriots SB in our lifetime. Hes given us all the Lombardi's we could have ever wanted, and was the most consistent (non-family division) force in most of our lives for 20 years.

Ask what he wants and give it to him. Consequences be damned.
I'd love to see weapons around him and to let him have a solid running game where he can just manage games for the last 2 seasons. Tom Brady playing the Trent Dilfer role while we see if Stidham rises is fantastic in my book.

Laundry Rooting need not apply when talking about Brady for me. My kids have absolutely not idea how lucky they have been, they think Lombardi's are a seasonal change.
 

Grogan's NeckRol

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And guess what? This is where I am with Brady.

The lip service that fans paid him for years appears to be just that for quite a few people.

Was there not a universal agreement regarding this man? He gets to stay as long as he wants and go out on his own terms. Full stop.

A lot of people that echoed that same idea over the years seem to be putting a whole lot of caveats behind his ability to return to the Patriots. I dont care if bringing Brady back hamstrings the cap, makes them a non-contender for the next 15 years, or makes it so we never see another Patriots SB in our lifetime. Hes given us all the Lombardi's we could have ever wanted, and was the most consistent (non-family division) force in most of our lives for 20 years.

Ask what he wants and give it to him. Consequences be damned.
Thank you for this. I cannot believe how little you hear this sentiment. I am glad the Celtics never traded Bird and don't want to see Brady in another uniform. No matter what that does to the cap or following few seasons. Thankfully, he looks like he is still the best option so as fans we are potentially not even sacrificing short term performance.
 

Reverend

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Also: I’m not a mod, but the general standard is not to post the whole text of an article, but a useful piece and then the link, to give the author her or his due. And stuff.

Even if it’s not still the rule—though I think it is—it seems right.
 

bakahump

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Even if they signed Brady to a ludicrous contract and extension.....the way the NFL salary Cap is set up arent we really only talking about 1 year of Cap Hell?

Brady signs large potentially cap crippling contract.
Brady gets hurt/ production falls off a cliff/ decides to go to Costa Rica/ Becomes a senator So you cut him and escalate his salary and bonuses.

Cut everybody. Tank for a season and pay Brady his money.

Come back in 2024 ready to rock and roll, no doubt with a high draft pick. BB is probably gone and RK may be gone. So we Trust JK and whomever BB has groomed to bring on the next success.
 

Harry Hooper

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Curran didn't mention the re-tooling of Brady's contract that was done by the Pats to minimize Brady's financial hit from the looming Deflategate suspension. he also didn't provide much context for the guaranteed money portions of the deals in terms of what was going on in the NFL when these deals were signed.
 
Last edited:

Norm Siebern

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And guess what? This is where I am with Brady.

The lip service that fans paid him for years appears to be just that for quite a few people.

Was there not a universal agreement regarding this man? He gets to stay as long as he wants and go out on his own terms. Full stop.

A lot of people that echoed that same idea over the years seem to be putting a whole lot of caveats behind his ability to return to the Patriots. I dont care if bringing Brady back hamstrings the cap, makes them a non-contender for the next 15 years, or makes it so we never see another Patriots SB in our lifetime. Hes given us all the Lombardi's we could have ever wanted, and was the most consistent (non-family division) force in most of our lives for 20 years.

Ask what he wants and give it to him. Consequences be damned.
A-Fucking-Men
 

joe dokes

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Even if they signed Brady to a ludicrous contract and extension.....the way the NFL salary Cap is set up arent we really only talking about 1 year of Cap Hell?

Brady signs large potentially cap crippling contract.
Brady gets hurt/ production falls off a cliff/ decides to go to Costa Rica/ Becomes a senator So you cut him and escalate his salary and bonuses.

Cut everybody. Tank for a season and pay Brady his money.

Come back in 2024 ready to rock and roll, no doubt with a high draft pick. BB is probably gone and RK may be gone. So we Trust JK and whomever BB has groomed to bring on the next success.
I have always assumed that the "plan" is something along those lines. Whether it's BB and Kraft or some other pair that those two have blessed, the team archetects will understand that zero wins is the same as 6 *this* season, but zero is far better for *next* season. Just as we appreciate the marvel of competing every single year, we will get a chance to witness the best tanking ever.
 

Super Nomario

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I have always assumed that the "plan" is something along those lines. Whether it's BB and Kraft or some other pair that those two have blessed, the team archetects will understand that zero wins is the same as 6 *this* season, but zero is far better for *next* season. Just as we appreciate the marvel of competing every single year, we will get a chance to witness the best tanking ever.
I don't think this is Belichick's mindset, and analytical studies (such as Massey / Thaler's "The Loser's Curse") suggest tanking is not a winning strategy in the NFL. I also don't know why you sound *excited* about this.
 

lexrageorge

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An NFL team has 45 roster spots, and even the best QB and LB of all time can each only play half of a game's snaps. On average, each team gets roughly 7 draft picks (ignoring compensatory picks for now), but nearly half of those picks will, on average, be players where Braxton Berrios is a reasonable average projection. Drafting near the top of the round helps, but is neither a guarantee nor even a requirement for rebuilding. Drafting smart, along with a decent smattering of luck, will go much further than tanking.

The Colts lucked into Luck; they got as far as the AFCCG. The Browns still are awaiting their first playoff game since their first 0-16 season. The Cowboys are the only team I can recall that successfully tanked, and that required a blockbuster trade that will likely never be repeated, as well as a big assist from the pre-Kraft Patriots.
 

joe dokes

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I don't think this is Belichick's mindset, and analytical studies (such as Massey / Thaler's "The Loser's Curse") suggest tanking is not a winning strategy in the NFL. I also don't know why you sound *excited* about this.
I don't think BB will have any problem with doing a rapid descent (ascent?) out of salary cap hell (assuming that's where they'll be immediate post-dynasty) even if it means one shitty season.
"Excited" is relative. Sucking will be no fun. But sucking when things are bound to get better is better than sucking when Jimmy Haslam or Dan Snyder is the owner. In hindsight, maybe its like 2000, when he "took" an 8-8 team to 5-11.
 

Super Nomario

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I don't think BB will have any problem with doing a rapid descent (ascent?) out of salary cap hell (assuming that's where they'll be immediate post-dynasty) even if it means one shitty season.
"Excited" is relative. Sucking will be no fun. But sucking when things are bound to get better is better than sucking when Jimmy Haslam or Dan Snyder is the owner. In hindsight, maybe its like 2000, when he "took" an 8-8 team to 5-11.
I don't know why you assume they'll be in salary cap hell; they aren't now, won't be next year as things stand, and have never positioned themselves that way.

As for "bound to get better" ... I dunno. Belichick's Cleveland tenure is a pretty clear example that a quick turnaround is far from guaranteed. And at 67 (68 in a couple months) Belichick might not be sticking around a whole lot longer anyway. I think there's a pretty big difference between 2000 (when Belichick inherited a bunch of players that he didn't pick and that didn't fit) and anything BB would be facing anyway (unless you're talking about the post-BB coach).
 

esfr

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And guess what? This is where I am with Brady.

The lip service that fans paid him for years appears to be just that for quite a few people.

Was there not a universal agreement regarding this man? He gets to stay as long as he wants and go out on his own terms. Full stop.

A lot of people that echoed that same idea over the years seem to be putting a whole lot of caveats behind his ability to return to the Patriots. I dont care if bringing Brady back hamstrings the cap, makes them a non-contender for the next 15 years, or makes it so we never see another Patriots SB in our lifetime. Hes given us all the Lombardi's we could have ever wanted, and was the most consistent (non-family division) force in most of our lives for 20 years.

Ask what he wants and give it to him. Consequences be damned.
you had me at hello...you had ME at hello
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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An NFL team has 45 roster spots, and even the best QB and LB of all time can each only play half of a game's snaps. On average, each team gets roughly 7 draft picks (ignoring compensatory picks for now), but nearly half of those picks will, on average, be players where Braxton Berrios is a reasonable average projection. Drafting near the top of the round helps, but is neither a guarantee nor even a requirement for rebuilding. Drafting smart, along with a decent smattering of luck, will go much further than tanking.

The Colts lucked into Luck; they got as far as the AFCCG. The Browns still are awaiting their first playoff game since their first 0-16 season. The Cowboys are the only team I can recall that successfully tanked, and that required a blockbuster trade that will likely never be repeated, as well as a big assist from the pre-Kraft Patriots.
Why should we see drafting smart and tanking as alternative strategies?

Most bad teams are bad because they have terrible coaching, front office, owner combinations. Its not a surprise that these teams don't draft or manage their rosters very well and they tend to stay bad.

The real question is whether, assuming a decent-to-very-good coach/front office/owner combination, it could be sometimes advantageous for a franchise to intentionally jeopardize its expected wins for a single year or perhaps two years (by not spending to the cap, taking a lot of cap pain to relieve it in future years, or trading assets for future draft picks). I honestly don't see the argument against this ("Sometimes tanking will be a good strategy") as a general proposition. This doesn't mean its a good idea specifically for the Patriots in 2020.

In this offseason, my hope is that the Patriots can resign Tom Brady at a reasonable cap number that allows them the flexibility to improve other parts of the team and that they roll the dice, focus on drafting and signing well, and see what happens, even knowing that getting back to Super Bowl contender status is somewhat of a long shot.

But if for whatever reason TB12 is not coming back, then I'd much rather see some version of "tanking" than the Patriots doing everything possible to bring their win expectation up to 8-9 games. By this I mean stuff like rolling with Stidham rather than signing somebody like Teddy Bridgewater, letting veteran FAs like McCourty and Van Noy walk rather than signing them to multiyear deals, if they sign FAs trying to structure contracts that are more front loaded and therefore create more flexibility later, not spending up to the cap and therefore creating some significant rollover into 2021 and beyond, and opportunistically looking to deal guys like Sanu who aren't signed past 2020 or otherwise part of the future for draft capital.
 

tims4wins

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Why should we see drafting smart and tanking as alternative strategies?

Most bad teams are bad because they have terrible coaching, front office, owner combinations. Its not a surprise that these teams don't draft or manage their rosters very well and they tend to stay bad.

The real question is whether, assuming a decent-to-very-good coach/front office/owner combination, it could be sometimes advantageous for a franchise to intentionally jeopardize its expected wins for a single year or perhaps two years (by not spending to the cap, taking a lot of cap pain to relieve it in future years, or trading assets for future draft picks). I honestly don't see the argument against this ("Sometimes tanking will be a good strategy") as a general proposition. This doesn't mean its a good idea specifically for the Patriots in 2020.

In this offseason, my hope is that the Patriots can resign Tom Brady at a reasonable cap number that allows them the flexibility to improve other parts of the team and that they roll the dice, focus on drafting and signing well, and see what happens, even knowing that getting back to Super Bowl contender status is somewhat of a long shot.

But if for whatever reason TB12 is not coming back, then I'd much rather see some version of "tanking" than the Patriots doing everything possible to bring their win expectation up to 8-9 games. By this I mean stuff like rolling with Stidham rather than signing somebody like Teddy Bridgewater, letting veteran FAs like McCourty and Van Noy walk rather than signing them to multiyear deals, if they sign FAs trying to structure contracts that are more front loaded and therefore create more flexibility later, not spending up to the cap and therefore creating some significant rollover into 2021 and beyond, and opportunistically looking to deal guys like Sanu who aren't signed past 2020 or otherwise part of the future for draft capital.
Yes. 1000 times yes.
 

RIFan

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Why should we see drafting smart and tanking as alternative strategies?

Most bad teams are bad because they have terrible coaching, front office, owner combinations. Its not a surprise that these teams don't draft or manage their rosters very well and they tend to stay bad.

The real question is whether, assuming a decent-to-very-good coach/front office/owner combination, it could be sometimes advantageous for a franchise to intentionally jeopardize its expected wins for a single year or perhaps two years (by not spending to the cap, taking a lot of cap pain to relieve it in future years, or trading assets for future draft picks). I honestly don't see the argument against this ("Sometimes tanking will be a good strategy") as a general proposition. This doesn't mean its a good idea specifically for the Patriots in 2020.

In this offseason, my hope is that the Patriots can resign Tom Brady at a reasonable cap number that allows them the flexibility to improve other parts of the team and that they roll the dice, focus on drafting and signing well, and see what happens, even knowing that getting back to Super Bowl contender status is somewhat of a long shot.

But if for whatever reason TB12 is not coming back, then I'd much rather see some version of "tanking" than the Patriots doing everything possible to bring their win expectation up to 8-9 games. By this I mean stuff like rolling with Stidham rather than signing somebody like Teddy Bridgewater, letting veteran FAs like McCourty and Van Noy walk rather than signing them to multiyear deals, if they sign FAs trying to structure contracts that are more front loaded and therefore create more flexibility later, not spending up to the cap and therefore creating some significant rollover into 2021 and beyond, and opportunistically looking to deal guys like Sanu who aren't signed past 2020 or otherwise part of the future for draft capital.
Agree, pretty much across the board.

I do think that if Brady is coming back, regardless of number, that they go all in on maximizing the potential to win another Super Bowl. If that means 3-5 years of cap hell, so be it. We've been too spoiled to expect continuing retooling and competing for a championship. I would not blow whatever time is left with Brady at QB to make sure we can compete for the 2024 Division title.
 

JimD

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Nov 29, 2001
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I don't know why you assume they'll be in salary cap hell; they aren't now, won't be next year as things stand, and have never positioned themselves that way.

As for "bound to get better" ... I dunno. Belichick's Cleveland tenure is a pretty clear example that a quick turnaround is far from guaranteed. And at 67 (68 in a couple months) Belichick might not be sticking around a whole lot longer anyway. I think there's a pretty big difference between 2000 (when Belichick inherited a bunch of players that he didn't pick and that didn't fit) and anything BB would be facing anyway (unless you're talking about the post-BB coach).
I think there's a part of Belichick that would relish the opportunity to tear down this club and rebuild it.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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I think there's a part of Belichick that would relish the opportunity to tear down this club and rebuild it.
He originally said he didn't ever see himself coaching past 70, but a recent interview he did contradicted that. I think we have another 5+ years with BB, which gives him time for a rebuild if he desires.
 

joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
14,193
Why should we see drafting smart and tanking as alternative strategies?

Most bad teams are bad because they have terrible coaching, front office, owner combinations. Its not a surprise that these teams don't draft or manage their rosters very well and they tend to stay bad.

The real question is whether, assuming a decent-to-very-good coach/front office/owner combination, it could be sometimes advantageous for a franchise to intentionally jeopardize its expected wins for a single year or perhaps two years (by not spending to the cap, taking a lot of cap pain to relieve it in future years, or trading assets for future draft picks). I honestly don't see the argument against this ("Sometimes tanking will be a good strategy") as a general proposition. This doesn't mean its a good idea specifically for the Patriots in 2020.

In this offseason, my hope is that the Patriots can resign Tom Brady at a reasonable cap number that allows them the flexibility to improve other parts of the team and that they roll the dice, focus on drafting and signing well, and see what happens, even knowing that getting back to Super Bowl contender status is somewhat of a long shot.

But if for whatever reason TB12 is not coming back, then I'd much rather see some version of "tanking" than the Patriots doing everything possible to bring their win expectation up to 8-9 games. By this I mean stuff like rolling with Stidham rather than signing somebody like Teddy Bridgewater, letting veteran FAs like McCourty and Van Noy walk rather than signing them to multiyear deals, if they sign FAs trying to structure contracts that are more front loaded and therefore create more flexibility later, not spending up to the cap and therefore creating some significant rollover into 2021 and beyond, and opportunistically looking to deal guys like Sanu who aren't signed past 2020 or otherwise part of the future for draft capital.
You said it better than I did.
 

ShaneTrot

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Why? He's the one who built this team in the first place. Do you think he thinks he did a crappy job at it?
I agree, this team does not need a rebuild. It has good players all over and excellent players under contract in the secondary.

I would love to know how Brady would do in a new offense. Could he get on the same page with new teammates quickly in a whole new system?
 

reggiecleveland

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Quick question for the more knowledgeable football minds on the board. How many coaches were successful head coaches in their 70s. Quicl look shows Shula was 9-7 at age 65, Tom Landry was considered out of touch by age 65.

Another way how comparable is 70 for a head coach to 43 for a QB?

I have always thought TB and BB will go at the same time, not out of love, but timing.
 

InstaFace

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I interpreted "tear down this club and rebuild it" as roughly meaning "having the emotional commitment to a multi-year process of turning over the core parts of the roster and training a new core group of players in the approach he generally prefers".
 

bakahump

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My point about being able to get out of Cap hell if necessary was in response to "Bring Back Brady no matter what....he has earned that right". Not sure I totally agree....(Not sure Brady would agree were he not the Brady in question. I mean he understands the competitive beast that is an NFL player better then any of us). But that said if BB and more importantly RK decides Brady has earned the right to write the check and punch the clock when he is done, then it doesnt mean we will have yearS of paying for it.

We might suck for years after he leaves....but it wont be because Brady asked for and got 3 years at 30 per. It will be because that what happens in the NFL. We just skipped about 6 iterations of the roller coaster.
 

reggiecleveland

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And guess what? This is where I am with Brady.

The lip service that fans paid him for years appears to be just that for quite a few people.

Was there not a universal agreement regarding this man? He gets to stay as long as he wants and go out on his own terms. Full stop.

A lot of people that echoed that same idea over the years seem to be putting a whole lot of caveats behind his ability to return to the Patriots. I dont care if bringing Brady back hamstrings the cap, makes them a non-contender for the next 15 years, or makes it so we never see another Patriots SB in our lifetime. Hes given us all the Lombardi's we could have ever wanted, and was the most consistent (non-family division) force in most of our lives for 20 years.

Ask what he wants and give it to him. Consequences be damned.
Exactly well said.
I mean Jeter and Kobe basically held their franchises hostage and dragged themselves out there is starring roles when (forget how bad you think Brady was this year) actually below average, not "No longer elite" but actual bad players. If Yankee fans could watch anything hit to the ss left be a single for 3 tears, and Laker fans gave standing Os to a guy with a true shooting percentage the same as his age, Patriots fans better cheer for a guy who dwarves both those clowns, and is better than they were at the end.
 
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