2020 TB12: The Decision 2020

How Would You Feel if Brady Left?

  • Completely devastated

    Votes: 24 13.0%
  • Very disappointed but still got BB

    Votes: 84 45.4%
  • Hold my beer until we know our next QB

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Eh, this may turn out to be a plus

    Votes: 32 17.3%
  • Let the Stidham era begin!

    Votes: 16 8.6%

  • Total voters
    185
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djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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I like -120 on that. For a few months' waiting. Where is Kyed getting those odds?
Oh I see now. Those are from BetOnline. Opened at -120/-120 but it’s -200 now. You can get -140 at Sportsbook.ag, but I would not recommend them unless you already have money there (bad reputation). BetOnline has two clones sites (Sportsbetting and LowVig), so you can bet up to 3X their max bet if you see something you really like.
Something is very wrong with that first line. +1200 on the Pats not winning the Super Bowl with Brady next year? Even if they signed him tomorrow, you're getting 12:1 odds that they won't win it all. That's the easiest bet on Earth.
Kyed also has the SB odds ass backwards. He’s confused.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’m not the first to say it (12 to Dallas) but it’s defensible. Dak is gonna want $35+ for 6 years or so. Is he that good? Does he give you a better chance at a title in the next two years vs Brady at say $25, who’s motivation would be jacked up to show it was him and not Bill who was the driving force?
Yeah. Dak is good but there could be some reservations about paying him $35M if you don’t think he’s a guy that can carry a team, when needed. I think there is some argument to paying Brady less and using savings on the defense. Obviously, the Brady route is riskier given age and the need to find another QB in a couple years but within the realm of possibility, IMO.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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It appears both sides are taking fairly aggressive initial public negotiating stances.

View: https://twitter.com/MikeGiardi/status/1214160047317667841?s=19
That tweet seems to have conveniently focused on a couple of sentences of much longer statements by both parties. When you read the entirety of the statements from Kraft and Brady, it sounds a lot less like a "aggressive negotiating stance":

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2020/01/06/nfl-wild-card-tom-brady-fmia-peter-king/
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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Keep in mind that neither side is going to say anything to the media that would weaken their negotiating position. I would expect Brady to be publicly non-committal, and I would also expect Kraft to publicly say they would love to have Tom back, but that it will ultimately be Brady's decision on where he plays next year.

Everything else will be handled behind closed doors.
 

Captaincoop

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Jul 16, 2005
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This quote from the King article sums up the situation:

New England was 4-6 in its last 10 games. Not including the 34-13 win over the worst team in the league, Cincinnati, the Patriots scored 16.6 points a game after Halloween. That’s one of the reasons why Belichick might think: With all the holes we need to fill on an old roster, now’s not the time to be emotional. Now’s not the time to try to wring one or two more years at huge money out of a quarterback who turns 43 in August.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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This quote from the King article sums up the situation:

New England was 4-6 in its last 10 games. Not including the 34-13 win over the worst team in the league, Cincinnati, the Patriots scored 16.6 points a game after Halloween. That’s one of the reasons why Belichick might think: With all the holes we need to fill on an old roster, now’s not the time to be emotional. Now’s not the time to try to wring one or two more years at huge money out of a quarterback who turns 43 in August.
Despite all that, with any fumble luck AT ALL, the Patriots are hosting KC next week (who they should have beaten at home if not for getting screwed by officials), a game away from the AFCCG.
 

tims4wins

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Jul 15, 2005
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This quote from the King article sums up the situation:

New England was 4-6 in its last 10 games. Not including the 34-13 win over the worst team in the league, Cincinnati, the Patriots scored 16.6 points a game after Halloween. That’s one of the reasons why Belichick might think: With all the holes we need to fill on an old roster, now’s not the time to be emotional. Now’s not the time to try to wring one or two more years at huge money out of a quarterback who turns 43 in August.
It sums up that King is awful.

They were 4-5. And they averaged 18.6 in those 9 games. 18.6 isn't good offense either. Obviously. But there were circumstances involved, including weather and other items.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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It sums up that King is awful.

They were 4-5. And they averaged 18.6 in those 9 games. 18.6 isn't good offense either. Obviously. But there were circumstances involved, including weather and other items.
LOL, the Pats didn't even lose 6 games, including the post-season. King is a joke. I think Brady simply wants a 2 year deal, instead of 1. I honestly believe that's the sticking point. If BB wants to get him for one year at 25mil, Brady is going to walk, but if he offers him 2/50, all guaranteed, I doubt Brady goes anywhere.
 

Ed Hillel

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Dec 12, 2007
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I’m not giving this version of Tom Brady 2/50. There are too many holes on the roster to compete for a SB with him at that price. If he wants to take something like a 3-4 year deal where he can get cut and spread some of the hit, ok, but that money is needed.

On the flip side, Brady should sit down and demand some of that money be used for some damned weapons. They had, by far, the worst set of complementary players on offense of any playoff team. By far.
 

Captaincoop

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It sums up that King is awful.

They were 4-5. And they averaged 18.6 in those 9 games. 18.6 isn't good offense either. Obviously. But there were circumstances involved, including weather and other items.
The offense is terrible. Terrible. How many bad defenses did they make look immovable this season?

We're blaming weather for all of those games? Or was it the "other items" that stopped them from scoring on some of the worst defenses in the NFL?

18.6 ppg would be 25th in the league.
 

tims4wins

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The offense is terrible. Terrible. How many bad defenses did they make look immovable this season?

We're blaming weather for all of those games? Or was it the "other items" that stopped them from scoring on some of the worst defenses in the NFL?

18.6 ppg would be 25th in the league.
Yes, it was terrible. But the point is that QB was low in the list of reasons why. At least in my opinion. WR talent / health, O line talent / health, TE talent, FB talent / health... these were all way, way more important than how TB12 played. PK also fails to realize that they will be paying $13M for TB to not be on the roster next year. Sure they have holes to fill, but unless they roll with Stidham, signing another QB to replace Brady won't help fill those holes.
 

reggiecleveland

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I’m not giving this version of Tom Brady 2/50. There are too many holes on the roster to compete for a SB with him at that price. If he wants to take something like a 3-4 year deal where he can get cut and spread some of the hit, ok, but that money is needed.

On the flip side, Brady should sit down and demand some of that money be used for some damned weapons. They had, by far, the worst set of complementary players on offense of any playoff team. By far.
This seems like the alluded to controversy that lead to trading Jimmy G, except BB (if he indeed wants to move on) actually has had the needle move his way with Kraft.

All of this is sad to me since the bad season involved nad luck like the KC calls, and actions/errors by people other than TB (Gronk's delay, Antonio Brown decision to waste money on him, etc) but he was stuck with the lousy offence.
 

wilked

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Jul 17, 2005
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I’m not giving this version of Tom Brady 2/50. There are too many holes on the roster to compete for a SB with him at that price. If he wants to take something like a 3-4 year deal where he can get cut and spread some of the hit, ok, but that money is needed.

On the flip side, Brady should sit down and demand some of that money be used for some damned weapons. They had, by far, the worst set of complementary players on offense of any playoff team. By far.
Here's QB contracts
https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/
What number do you want to offer him over two years, if it's not $50?
 

NomarsFool

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This is a hopeful fan talking, but I would really like to see Brady back, and I'd like to see him back at less than his current deal so that the team could invest in other areas of the team. They do have a salary cap, and Brady knows that as well. To oversimplify things, I think Brady would be happier with a $15 million salary and a $10 million Tight End than he would with a $25 million salary and Ben Watson at age 39.
 

Seels

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Jul 20, 2005
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King is the epitome of the ok boomer thing.

I agree with Brady wanting a two year deal. What's to stop the Pats from offering something with low base but high guarantees, like 2/45 with 30 guaranteed?
 

m0ckduck

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Jul 20, 2005
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Wouldn't the ideal Brady outcome (for him) be to use free agency as leverage to negotiate a two-year deal where a bunch of the cap hit is deferred until after he retires?* Basically forcing the team to borrow against future years' budgets to surround him with talent for his last shot at #7. Maybe the team also agrees to restructure Hightower and others to create additional short-term flexibility. Pats load up for two more years and then resign themselves to spending 2022 in cap hell once he retires. Not sure how Belichick would feel about this, but it would make some sense for the other involved parties.

* Caveat: I don't know enough about cap mechanics to understand if this is possible exactly.
 
Apr 24, 2019
1,278
King is the epitome of the ok boomer thing.

I agree with Brady wanting a two year deal. What's to stop the Pats from offering something with low base but high guarantees, like 2/45 with 30 guaranteed?
I could be wrong, but that sounds like a deal-breaking NFW offer that would, IMO, rightfully drive Brady out of town.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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Feb 6, 2018
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Yes, it was terrible. But the point is that QB was low in the list of reasons why. At least in my opinion. WR talent / health, O line talent / health, TE talent, FB talent / health... these were all way, way more important than how TB12 played. PK also fails to realize that they will be paying $13M for TB to not be on the roster next year. Sure they have holes to fill, but unless they roll with Stidham, signing another QB to replace Brady won't help fill those holes.
I can’t see them rolling with just Stidham since he is still very unproven. If he stinks, they are a 5 win team next season. I can’t see Bill going in that direction. It’s either Tom or a veteran stop gap QB.
 

luckiestman

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Lombardi said something weird on his podcast not about Brady but that you could deduce about Brady. He was talking about the Bills and how they will probably be the favorite (highest number on over/under line) in the AFC East next year. That is a weird thing to say if you think Brady is coming back.

Lombardi being a BB guy is why I thought this was notable.
 

axx

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Seems like Brady wants franchise tag money after all. He ain't getting it in New England.
 

Harry Hooper

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Seems like Brady wants franchise tag money after all. He ain't getting it in New England.
Based on what? I still think Brady wants a 3-year deal, so contract length is more important.
 

axx

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Based on what? I still think Brady wants a 3-year deal, so contract length is more important.
His age. He's not getting a real long term deal. It's basically going to be year to year. Also factoring in the lockout, probally safer for Brady to take a one year deal rather than a fake 2 or 3 year one.
 

tims4wins

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The planet where Jared Goff is paid 4/134 w 110 guaranteed
But $30M guaranteed means he can just walk away after a year. He could get paid something like $37M to play one more season. I guess if he truly wants to play 2 more years then 2/$45 isn’t awesome. But he played for $23 this year.
 

luckiestman

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But $30M guaranteed means he can just walk away after a year. He could get paid something like $37M to play one more season. I guess if he truly wants to play 2 more years then 2/$45 isn’t awesome. But he played for $23 this year.
Goff makes almost 30 million a year guaranteed. Why would Brady takes less than that getting toward the end of his career?
 

lexrageorge

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Goff makes almost 30 million a year guaranteed. Why would Brady takes less than that getting toward the end of his career?
Goff's market would be very different from Brady's. Not sure Brady will just get $30M guaranteed AAV over say, 3 years from any team.

Well at least we now know that it was indeed Brady who requested the no franchise clause in his last contract.
Not sure who else would have asked for it. Unless we want to have a thread here discussing the value of a player option ;)
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

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Not sure who else would have asked for it. Unless we want to have a thread here discussing the value of a player option ;)
Well there was a discussion about why Brady would ask for the no franchise clause and somebody was saying that we were only assuming Brady had asked for it. It was in the context of a discussion about there being no evidence that Brady might actually leave.
 

twibnotes

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I feel like 90 pct of the GMs in the NFL would say the Goff deal is a bad deal. Is it really a valid comp?
 

DJnVa

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Goff makes almost 30 million a year guaranteed. Why would Brady takes less than that getting toward the end of his career?
Because then he'd be almost guaranteeing he's not going to have a lot of talent around him unless he's going someplace that already has top tier talent on rookie deals. What teams offer that? Because I don't think he's gonna go play for Cincy just because they offer him the most.
 

broncoman

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Jan 1, 2020
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here is the list of all 31 qb
AFC East no shot sorry felger he been begging brady to go to Miami in 2020
AFC North also no shot
SOUTH INDY 5% at best
West LV 40% Gruden loves old qb refow can be a young 11 waller is a sneaky good TE Cool pass blocking OL will play in a dome LAC 10% they want rivers back first what felger does not get here is the spanos are cheap they are just 1 step above from mike brown
NFC East no shot
North No shot
South TB 15% I couild see this because their I coach s a win now type m evans Goodwin in the slot 2 good TE hardly no cold weather games Car 1% without josh 10% with josh only if they get JM and if they get rid of cam NO if brees retires this is brady dream team a star in Thomas Kamara great pass blk line cook this is brady dream and if matches up as NO has only a 2 year window anyway

nfc west no shot

in order
1 LV
2 TB
3 no 1 if brees retires
4 car
5 lac
6 indy
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Goff's market would be very different from Brady's. Not sure Brady will just get $30M guaranteed AAV over say, 3 years from any team.
Big Ben is 38 years old and just got a 2yr/68 million dollar deal with 50mil guaranteed. Rodgers is 37 and he's on a 4yr/137mil deal with 98.2mil guaranteed. Denver just gave Joe Flacco 3yrs/66mil with 62mil guaranteed. Jacoby Brissett made 28mil this year, so did Kirk Cousins. 35yr old Matt Ryan just finished year 1 of a 5/150mil deal with 94.5mil guaranteed. Matthew Stafford is at 27mil per year with 92mil guaranteed. The QB market is insane, for everybody.

Like I said before in this or another thread, this is all going to come down to terms, not dollars. If the Pats offer Brady 2yrs/50mil, fully guaranteed, or give him 3/75 with 50 guaranteed and spread out the hit, I think he signs here. If BB thinks he can truly low ball him and offer 15mil, Brady is going to walk, and some team out there is going to offer him 3/90 without batting an eye, just to put asses in their seats. If BB tries to continue going year to year with TB12, he's going to walk. I think that's why he didn't want the possibility of a franchise tag. He wants a commitment from the team, in terms of years, and he's going to want them to put players around him.

There is no solution involving a free agent QB that will result in this team winning more than 7 games, IMO. If you lose Brady and have to eat his 13.5mil in dead money this year, you need to just blow it up, roll with Stidham and get as high into the draft as possible.
 

Ale Xander

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Chances he's going to switch places with Tannehill?

Seems like a possibility of a win-win-win-win there. Brady goes to a playoff team to a coach that would want him and with mutual familiarity. Patriots could afford a pay raise for him (edit: may be not with the dead money, forgot about that) if they lose Brady and have enough scouting on him to know whether he's a good fit and a good short term option to get Stidham more seasoning. Good place for Tannehill to get his profile up (although may be this year is good enough for a long term big $ contract elsewhere).
 

InstaFace

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Here's QB contracts
https://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/
What number do you want to offer him over two years, if it's not $50?
Look, I dunno how you can give Tom Brady a raise from Joe Flacco money all the way up to Derek Carr money. Next you'll be saying he deserves Jacoby Brissett money. That's just crazy talk.

edit: more seriously, my read is that Brady just wants 2 things:
(1) what he's always gotten: a little less than what he'd command on the open market, but not an amount so low it's an insult and the union thinks he's undermining the efforts of players with less wealthy spouses than he.
(2) fully-guaranteed or nearly enough so that he's ensured the ability to do what he's long said he wants to do, which is play through his age 45 season.

I give him 2/$50 no problem. I think a lot harder about 3/$75 but frankly there are maybe 2-3 QBs I'd want over the next 3 years more than I'd want Brady, none of them are available for obvious reasons, and if they were, the asking price would start at Russell Wilson money.
 
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Deathofthebambino

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Deathofthebambino

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Look, I dunno how you can give Tom Brady a raise from Joe Flacco money all the way up to Derek Carr money. Next you'll be saying he deserves Jacoby Brissett money. That's just crazy talk.

edit: more seriously, my read is that Brady just wants 2 things:
(1) what he's always gotten: a little less than what he'd command on the open market, but not an amount so low it's an insult and the union thinks he's undermining the efforts of players with less wealthy spouses than he.
(2) fully-guaranteed or nearly enough so that he's ensured the ability to do what he's long said he wants to do, which is play through his age 45 season.

I give him 2/$50 no problem. I think a lot harder about 3/$75 but frankly there are maybe 2-3 QBs I'd want over the next 3 years more than I'd want Brady, none of them are available for obvious reasons, and if they were, the asking price would start at Russell Wilson money.
I threw out the 3/75 (or even 4/100) for cap reasons. I don't think he'd see year 3 in either scenario. The 3rd and 4th years would be voided, but would be there to spread the cap hit out.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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Goff makes almost 30 million a year guaranteed. Why would Brady takes less than that getting toward the end of his career?
Because Brady has never ever ever sought top dollars. And because the only reason he’s coming back is to win ring #7, and he knows that taking up that much salary space means he isn’t getting the help he needs to win.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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By the way, this is the most incredible click-bait headline/article I've ever seen in relation to Tom Brady or the Pats. What a fucking joke:

https://www.nj.com/sports/2020/01/nfl-rumors-patriots-tom-brady-willing-to-take-a-big-hit-in-his-wallet-to-leave-new-england.html
He's willing to take a big hit to leave New England. Not because he'd take less money from another team. No. Because he reduced the price on his house, because he couldn't get the 40mil he was originally asking for....
Well, I know you don't follow real estate all that much but in that industry, its pretty much an established fact that if you list and sell your home, you are absolutely moving thousands of miles away. Who would sell their home and live nearby? That is just stupid.

Brady is selling his place and taking a big hit to his wallet -he has property in LA so he is for sure moving back there and as another pro tip, in real estate, when you live in a house, the value goes up. There is no such concept in housing like wear and tear or depreciation to the sticks. Brady is forcing himself to move because he is now cash poor and has to make up the difference by occupying another residence.

You guys can thank me later for getting a summary of the link, even if NJ.com is a very information focused site with no axe to grind with regard to generating clicks or serving a market that has rival teams/fans who dislike New England etc.
 
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