2020 TB12: The Decision 2020

How Would You Feel if Brady Left?

  • Completely devastated

    Votes: 24 13.0%
  • Very disappointed but still got BB

    Votes: 84 45.4%
  • Hold my beer until we know our next QB

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Eh, this may turn out to be a plus

    Votes: 32 17.3%
  • Let the Stidham era begin!

    Votes: 16 8.6%

  • Total voters
    185
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Super Nomario

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Was he significantly better? Or better weapons? Let's remember Derrick Henry didn't turn it on until the second half
Derrick Henry was there in the first half. He just wasn't as effective when Tennessee didn't have a lead, because they didn't have a functional passing offense for half the year.

Teddy: 67.9%, 7.1 Y/A, 4.6% TD, 1.0% INT, 99.1 rating, 7.5 AY/A, 6.23 NY/A
Marcus: 59.4%, 7.5 Y/A, 4.4% TD, 1.3% INT, 92.3 rating, 7.8 AY/A, 5.62 NY/A

He completed more passes, but was captain checkdown. I would hardly say he was significantly better. YMMV.
We can quibble over this (the difference in NY/A [and ANY/A, my favorite quick-and-dirty passing stat] is pretty stark, largely because Mariota took an enormous amount of sacks while he was in the lineup), but even if you think the difference here is marginal, I don't know why you'd prefer Mariota to Bridgewater.

(FWIW, I'm not really interested in either; to me Brady is far and away the best option, Stidham probably second, and the only vet who really intrigues me is Cam Newton, who is capable of elite play that none of the other options really are)
 

E5 Yaz

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Why does it appear that so many people in this thread have either given up on Stidham, or at least consider him someone who could be that QB of the future?

We hardly saw enough of him last season to provide enough evidence to convince anyone that he is a bust or lost cause.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Why does it appear that so many people in this thread have either given up on Stidham, or at least consider him someone who could be that QB of the future?

We hardly saw enough of him last season to provide enough evidence to convince anyone that he is a bust or lost cause.
I agree generally but the Cody Kessler thing was kind of weird. There were times when a roster spot would have been nice but we were carrying three quarterbacks. It is just a little thing and you can imagine reasons other than the Occam’s razor one — which is that Belichick knew from game 5 or 6 that he likely had a playoff team and wanted Kessler there for a Brady injury.

Again, it could be nothing and I agree with your main point that nothing we saw from Stidham’s play is enough for firm conclusions. One pick six does not mean you stink. Cody Kessler breathing down your neck might mean you stink.
 

E5 Yaz

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I agree generally but the Cody Kessler thing was weird. There were times when a roster spot would have been nice but we were carrying three quarterbacks. It is just a little thing and you can imagine reasons other than the Occam’s razor one — which is that Belichick knew from game 5 or 6 that he likely had a playoff team and wanted Kessler there for a Brady injury.

Again, it could be nothing and I agree with your main point that nothing we saw from Stidham’s play is enough for firm conclusions. One pick six does not mean you stink. Cody Kessler breathing down your neck might mean you stink.
I think your first point nails it. They thought Stidham was raw and Brady was likely more hurt than they let on.
 

Super Nomario

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I agree generally but the Cody Kessler thing was kind of weird. There were times when a roster spot would have been nice but we were carrying three quarterbacks. It is just a little thing and you can imagine reasons other than the Occam’s razor one — which is that Belichick knew from game 5 or 6 that he likely had a playoff team and wanted Kessler there for a Brady injury.

Again, it could be nothing and I agree with your main point that nothing we saw from Stidham’s play is enough for firm conclusions. One pick six does not mean you stink. Cody Kessler breathing down your neck might mean you stink.
Kessler was never the game- day backup though. All evidence suggests that if Brady went down, Stidham would get first crack.

The rumors were Brady couldn't do a lot in practice much of the season, so having another QB makes sense. The patterns of Kessler getting cut and re- signed and their reluctance to activate him are consistent with these rumors.
 

RedOctober3829

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Rap elaborates more on Tom.

The Patriots are intent on keeping Brady, obviously, believing he has one or two good years left. They are willing, sources say, to pay him in excess of $30 million per year to keep him in New England -- a significant commitment that would bring his salary more in line with other elite QBs.
That would help, but it may not be all. If Brady is going to return, he wants to see the team spend on some weapons -- which they attempted to do last offseason by signing Antonio Brown, only to have it fail. It would be unlike Bill Belichick to "go for it" but that may close the deal.

Technically, Brady is not allowed to sign a new deal with New England until free agency begins next month, but it is likely he will wait until then to even come close to an agreement.

Brady will have options. Sources say the Los Angeles Chargers are expected to be among the teams who will make a pitch to Brady. They do have what he'd require, which is a talented team that could win now. The Tennessee Titans also fit that bill, though they'd have to make a decision on whether to franchise tag Ryan Tannehill before free agency commences.

Another potential factor for Brady is his TB12 workout facility. Brady wants to continue the routine that has kept him upright and agile throughout the years, and a new team being willing to incorporate TB12 into their footprint would help. The Chargers -- who will share a stadium with the Rams -- would have that capability.

 
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I can't figure out how they are supposed to pay him $30mm and also spend on weapons. (And I'm also confused about the impact of signing after the current deal expires. There seem to be arguments about how that money might hit the cap and somehow the CBA expiring soon puts limits on options that would normally exist.)

Does anyone think the Pats could pay him $30mm and still have money to spend on weapons?
 

nattysez

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I can't figure out how they are supposed to pay him $30mm and also spend on weapons. (And I'm also confused about the impact of signing after the current deal expires. There seem to be arguments about how that money might hit the cap and somehow the CBA expiring soon puts limits on options that would normally exist.)

Does anyone think the Pats could pay him $30mm and still have money to spend on weapons?
This is where I am, too. I guess they can spread the deal over a few years to somewhat lessen the cap hit, but this all sounds very deeply unlike how BB has operated for 20 years.
 

heavyde050

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This is where I am, too. I guess they can spread the deal over a few years to somewhat lessen the cap hit, but this all sounds very deeply unlike how BB has operated for 20 years.
I am guessing that BB would have a plan. I mean at the end of the day, BB has done his best to put the best Patriots team on the field each year. If he thinks a $30M Brady is better than QB X at $20M plus Brady’s $13.5M dead money cap hit, then I will wait to see what other moves he has in mind.
 

E5 Yaz

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No, Volin, it doesn't imply tampering at all, you schmuck.

All it means is that, based on discussions around the league, people are projecting the Chargers to be a contender. It's no more "tampering" than Schefter's tweet about the Raiders.

Seriously, how did the Globe wind up with someone as clueless as Volin as their beat writer?
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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Isn't there Raiders or Chargers suggestion that they're interested in Brady tampering given he's under contract with the Patriots right now.
 

Mooch

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I’m puzzled about the draw of the Chargers in terms of the ability to somehow export the TB12 brand’s success to LA. Can someone explain to me how a team without any real fan base in their home city can provide any meaningful ancillary interest for Brady’s company? So much of the TB12 brand position is intertwined with the Patriots and the Boston area. The suggestion that LA will give a crap about the yet another local fitness/nutrition company (there are probably hundreds of them out there that cater to Hollywood alone) that built its core audience thousands of miles away is a gigantic stretch, in my opinion.
 

RedOctober3829

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From Tom E. Curran. He says that the Pats will "extend themselves" for TB but his source says it may not be in excess of $30 million. His source also said it's more about surrounding him with better players than the money. He also says there will be a big market for Brady which he heard was not the case earlier in the offseason. Also says this is a Belichick-Brady decision and ownership will not swoop in to make sure he stays.

MIAMI – “He’s gone, isn’t he?”
I can’t tell you how many conversations about Tom Brady this past week in Miami ended with the person I was talking with making that tentative declaration.
That may have felt like the case because of all our speculation about “best fits” and “motivated owners.”
But by late Friday night, indications I’d gotten were that there will be real effort to keep Brady in New England. And Brady will give them their shot.

My understanding is the Patriots will “extend themselves” financially to get Brady back in the fold. Whether that means they’ll go “in excess of $30M” as Ian Rapoport from NFL Media reported Sunday morning is unknown. Presumably, that’s in excess of a $30M salary in 2020 which would be up from his $23M in 2019.

That would be a leap, especially since there would likely be $6.75M in dead money from Brady’s voided deal added on to the $30M, bringing his cap number to $36.75M in that scenario.
Regardless, Brady hasn’t drawn a line through the Patriots on his list of possible destinations. Not at all.
It was reiterated to me, however, that this isn’t about the money for Brady. It’s about appreciation for what he’s done and can still do. That appreciation can be shown as much by getting experienced, high-level talent around him as it can with a dollar amount. But the timing for that will be tough for the Patriots.


It was indicated to me that this is for Bill Belichick and Brady to work out for themselves. When the Patriots agreed last August to not use the franchise tag on Brady in 2020, that was to ensure that any decision Brady made to stay was of his own volition. Why keep him against his will? He’s earned the right to decide to stay or leave if that’s what he wants.
It was reiterated that this decision – like the call to trade Jimmy Garoppolo in 2017 – is one that will ultimately be Belichick’s. There’s a presumption that owner Robert Kraft will swoop down from the rafters and overrule Belichick if the head coach decides it’s time to move on from Brady. That belief is fed by the lie that won’t die, the urban legend that Kraft forced the Garoppolo trade.
That didn’t happen and nothing’s really been done to correct the record.
The owner has declared many times he wants Brady to remain a Patriot. But my understanding is that, just as he wouldn’t force Brady to stay under a franchise tag, he won’t intercede if Belichick concludes moving on from Brady is the best course of action.
While Brady is more than open to remaining a Patriot if things seem destined to improve, the lure of being a free agent is there as well. There are about 10 teams – including the Patriots – that could be attractive landing spots or possible suitors.
Even though I spitballed the other day that the market may be bleak, I’ve gotten more indications that it’s going to be really robust.
[/quote]
 

DJnVa

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Perhaps it's some number that Brady is comfortable with and he has understanding that what he leaves on the table goes towards skill guys.

"Pay me $30M or pay me $21M but the other $9M is going to offensive help."
 

Mystic Merlin

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Perhaps it's some number that Brady is comfortable with and he has understanding that what he leaves on the table goes towards skill guys.
If he doesn’t like the current crop/want to see if Sanu and Harry can progress, then that’s gonna be tough. AJ Green has shown no inclination of leaving Cincy, and he has hammy and foot problems at that, and will Austin Hooper - a fine player but not exactly Zach Ertz - please him?

I think the disruption of having to get acclimated to a new team and coaching staff this offseason can’t be overlooked/has to be priced in. Assuming he cares about that - and why wouldn’t he, he understands the value of continuity better than any player - I bet this is about the team showing him they’ll do everything they CAN to improve the skill positions, not necessarily wave a wand so a wild Keenan Allen appears in Gillette.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Given the Patriots have a long track record of never leaking, isn't it at least as likely this is Brady's camp trying to get teams to believe that there's a big offer out there? Also, do we REALLY think that anyone needs to leak anything at all here given the obvious value in any direction of Brady?

I guess, for me, the probabilities for the sourcing behind any of these items are roughly like this:

1. Neither Brady or Patriots are leaking anything and what we are reading is made-up or, at best, fourth-hand speculation (80% probability)
2. Peripheral Brady people are leaking things (7.5%) or Peripheral Pats people are leaking things (7.5%)
4. Either Brady or Pats legit insiders with real knowledge are leaking things (5%)
 

McBride11

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Why is Brady, all of a sudden, asking for the biggest aav of his career?? It goes against everything he has ever done. Same w BB, why would he pay TB 30m or whatever.

Of all these rumors - none can actually explain this radical change.

Now Im gonna rewatch the Pats Falcons SB and believe Brady is ageless. And White with his first catch - I think he has promise.
 

johnmd20

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Perhaps it's some number that Brady is comfortable with and he has understanding that what he leaves on the table goes towards skill guys.

"Pay me $30M or pay me $21M but the other $9M is going to offensive help."
That would most certainly be the best case scenario.

edit - and maybe actually draft a player who is good and can help in the first year. I guess Sony helped in 2018, but it was Rex who carried the load against KC. Obviously Harry in 2019 was a bust but he got hurt. Imagine if the Pats draft a WR who is actually good, (like a DK Metcalf) and Harry gets better?

The weapons could be there. It would be nice if the team could get a bell cow RB and not be stuck with specialists like Sony.
 

BaseballJones

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Why is Brady, all of a sudden, asking for the biggest aav of his career?? It goes against everything he has ever done. Same w BB, why would he pay TB 30m or whatever.

Of all these rumors - none can actually explain this radical change.

Now Im gonna rewatch the Pats Falcons SB and believe Brady is ageless. And White with his first catch - I think he has promise.
This is what I wonder. He has always been fine taking less than max dollars. One report a little while ago and said that Brady was embarrassed at how many quarterbacks were making more than him. Why would he be embarrassed about that? He has willingly signed those deals and the results have been six Super Bowl championships. I think he understands that one of the biggest reasons why they’ve been so successful is because of the contract that he signed.

It would just seem pretty out of character for him, at age 42, to suddenly demand these enormous dollars.
 

johnmd20

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This is what I wonder. He has always been fine taking less than max dollars. One report a little while ago and said that Brady was embarrassed at how many quarterbacks were making more than him. Why would he be embarrassed about that? He has willingly signed those deals and the results have been six Super Bowl championships. I think he understands that one of the biggest reasons why they’ve been so successful is because of the contract that he signed.

It would just seem pretty out of character for him, at age 42, to suddenly demand these enormous dollars.
Especially considering an extra 8 million in income will literally not even be noticed by the Brady/Bundchen family. It's a lot of money if you've got 20 million in the bank. It's a rounding error if you've got 400 million.
 

Harry Hooper

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For all we know, the $30 million number has a good chunk of the $6.5 million cap charge factored in. In any event, Ordway's vision of a 1-year offer by the Pats in the $15-$20 million range looks as risible as it appeared on first hearing it.

I’m puzzled about the draw of the Chargers in terms of the ability to somehow export the TB12 brand’s success to LA. Can someone explain to me how a team without any real fan base in their home city can provide any meaningful ancillary interest for Brady’s company? So much of the TB12 brand position is intertwined with the Patriots and the Boston area. The suggestion that LA will give a crap about the yet another local fitness/nutrition company (there are probably hundreds of them out there that cater to Hollywood alone) that built its core audience thousands of miles away is a gigantic stretch, in my opinion.
Good points. I also don't understand how Rap thinks the Chargers can accommodate a TB12 site into a facility that they don't own/control.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Good points. I also don't understand how Rap thinks the Chargers can accommodate a TB12 site into a facility that they don't own/control.
Maybe he figures the Rams will do almost anything to get Brady separated from Belichick for any future Super bowl matchups?
 

Caspir

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Whatever Belichick thinks is right is fine with me. The most important nugget above is ownership staying out of the decision.
This is where I’m at. I’ll be crushed if Brady leaves (and my TB12 hat will get douche nozzle comments from the peanut gallery around Boston) but Bill will make sure the franchise doesn’t hamstring itself.

I hope they make it work.
 

brandonchristensen

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To me, personally, I don’t think it’s about money. I think he ends with the Pats because his legacy will be untouched in Boston for the rest of time. It’s already among the pantheon of greats, but if he stays he will be above everyone.
 

BusRaker

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I've never understood how Tom could be a big union guy (Tom Brady vs. NFL for example) and take a 8-10 M discount every year. My union would have brought me into a closed room and flogged me with a wet jock strap if I had ever done that.
 

brandonchristensen

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I've never understood how Tom could be a big union guy (Tom Brady vs. NFL for example) and take a 8-10 M discount every year. My union would have brought me into a closed room and flogged me with a wet jock strap if I had ever done that.
Probably because everyone knew he was doing it for the team and he wasn’t setting the market.
 

axx

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Especially considering an extra 8 million in income will literally not even be noticed by the Brady/Bundchen family. It's a lot of money if you've got 20 million in the bank. It's a rounding error if you've got 400 million.
If Brady was thinking that way, he'd be retiring, not taking another below average deal.
 

johnmd20

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There's some element of risk playing of course, esp given his age. Money absolutely has to be part of the reason he's still playing.
The money is the last concern for Brady, outside of ego in that he doesn't want to get paid less than some scrubs. Whatever Brady could make in a season of the NFL will not alter his life in any way. Not a single iota. He's worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
 

McBride11

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Did this yesterday. Malcolm Mitchell ... sigh
Right. As awesome as he was as a rookie, imagine him in year 4. Then the dominoes of not going after AB or trading a 2 for Sanu. Knee injuries suck. Sad for his life / career and sad for the Pats.

OMG White scores in OT!!!
 
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