2020 TB12: The Decision 2020

How Would You Feel if Brady Left?

  • Completely devastated

    Votes: 24 13.0%
  • Very disappointed but still got BB

    Votes: 84 45.4%
  • Hold my beer until we know our next QB

    Votes: 29 15.7%
  • Eh, this may turn out to be a plus

    Votes: 32 17.3%
  • Let the Stidham era begin!

    Votes: 16 8.6%

  • Total voters
    185
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azsoxpatsfan

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He said in the ad he’s not going anywhere and I’m choosing to believe he means he’s staying with the pats
 

NortheasternPJ

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"Hey Mr. Kraft, I'm filming a Super Bowl commercial about my free agency and leaving the Pats with Hulu, can we rent out the stadium? Thanks!"
 

lexrageorge

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Aren't these commercials typically filmed months in advance of release?

Hulu would be the one contacting the Krafts about using the stadium.
 

NortheasternPJ

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It was filmed in Decemeber.


I was mainly just joking around, of course Brady didn't go to Kraft, but Hulu did. Then again this is the same guy who came out of out the Asian Spa, I mean Cloning Clinic on Netflix
 

E5 Yaz

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After last night ... is it possible money-wise that the 49ers can get out of that JG contract and bring Brady "home"?
 

OurF'ingCity

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$30 million seems like the team has even less to spend on weapons than last year.
Yeah if that reporting is true (and I'm not at all sure it is) and I'm Belichick I'm like ok Tom explain to me precisely how under the cap we can (a) sign you to a contract you'd accept; (b) get you more "weapons"; and (c) not totally fuck over the defense or the future of the team, neither of which would be in Brady's interest.

And Brady is a smart guy so I find it pretty doubtful he is going to Belichick/Kraft and just saying, "I don't care about the cap or what trades you have to make, just get me more weapons dammit!"
 

joe dokes

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"Hey Mr. Kraft, I'm filming a Super Bowl commercial about my free agency and leaving the Pats with Hulu, can we rent out the stadium? Thanks!"
"Ya know, Tommy, given the publicity this gets for the stadium, *I* should pay *you* to film there. How about 10 or 15 milion dollars."
 

OurF'ingCity

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If Brady does go to Vegas, isn’t the obvious move signing Carr? I’d actually be pretty okay with that.

I'd think Carr would command a pretty decent salary on the market if he is cut. Maybe the Pats could make it work but if Brady leaves I'm in the camp of "sign a cheap fringe guy" like Bridgewater or Mariota (I like Bridgewater a LOT more than Mariota but YMMV), have him compete with Stidham for playing time and basically reset and start looking for the QB of the future. Not sure I'm super interested in signing Carr to a relatively hefty contract to give them like 20% more than what much cheaper available options will be able to give them.

Edit: that said if there is no real market for Carr and he's willing to take a cheap/short deal then sure, he would be an option.
 

DJnVa

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I mean, I guess that could theoretically happen, but man, I can't see that as anywhere near possible.

I know NFL contracts are what they are, but still, that seems ridiculously far-fetched. JG maybe didn't have his best game in the Super Bowl, but his stats this season were pretty good (4000 yards, 102 rating, 27/13 TD/INT 69% completion %), and they are going to cut him and bring in Brady? For a year or 2?
 

RedOctober3829

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I mean, I guess that could theoretically happen, but man, I can't see that as anywhere near possible.

I know NFL contracts are what they are, but still, that seems ridiculously far-fetched. JG maybe didn't have his best game in the Super Bowl, but his stats this season were pretty good (4000 yards, 102 rating, 27/13 TD/INT 69% completion %), and they are going to cut him and bring in Brady? For a year or 2?
Think about it from this perspective. The SF roster is win now. They have a 1-2 year window with the current roster before a lot of key players become FA's or are owed new contracts. If all that is holding them back is the QB position, why not entertain the thought of bringing in Brady for that length of time if they aren't completely sold on Jimmy? This usually would not happen with the year that Jimmy had or the success the team had, but the combo of his contract and Brady being potentially available should make John Lynch at least stop and think about it. It's obviously a very unique situation and I don't think they would move on from Jimmy for anybody else other than Brady.
 

brandonchristensen

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Think about it from this perspective. The SF roster is win now. They have a 1-2 year window with the current roster before a lot of key players become FA's or are owed new contracts. If all that is holding them back is the QB position, why not entertain the thought of bringing in Brady for that length of time if they aren't completely sold on Jimmy? This usually would not happen with the year that Jimmy had or the success the team had, but the combo of his contract and Brady being potentially available should make John Lynch at least stop and think about it. It's obviously a very unique situation and I don't think they would move on from Jimmy for anybody else other than Brady.
Can they keep Jimmy, sign Brady and let jimmy have another two years of clipboard?
 

play4real

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Dec 28, 2005
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That's what RO is saying. They can cut him.
Understood, but do you think San Fran is going to give up on their franchise quarterback, who made it to the Super Bowl his first full year (you could argue ref calls could have made the difference) for a 42 year old who may play for another two years (no slight on Brady)?
 

play4real

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Dec 28, 2005
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Can they keep Jimmy, sign Brady and let jimmy have another two years of clipboard?
To me, that would be a poor decision to give up on their franchise QB who just made it to the Super Bowl in his first full season. I am not sure Tom would have made the difference in that game, and I am not sure they win it all with him. Honestly, if the Pats add some offensive weapons, Tom has a better chance of winning with them, in the system he has known for the past 20 years. Don’t think for a minute that it would be an easy transition for Tom to just move to another team at 42 and dominate.
 

rodderick

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To me, that would be a poor decision to give up on their franchise QB who just made it to the Super Bowl in his first full season. I am not sure Tom would have made the difference in that game, and I am not sure they win it all with him. Honestly, if the Pats add some offensive weapons, Tom has a better chance of winning with them, in the system he has known for the past 20 years. Don’t think for a minute that it would be an easy transition for Tom to just move to another team at 42 and dominate.
There isn't a single team in the league that would be interested in Tom Brady without making flexibility for him to install the offense a huge part of the pitch. He isn't going somewhere to play in some dude's system.
 

Harry Hooper

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Rappaport was going on this morning about how he expects Brady to not sign with the Pats before going out and testing the official FA waters. Completely dismissed the dead cap hit that would make it harder for the Pats to get him help and ignored the reality that teams can do covert communications with Brady camp before FA period starts.
 
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axx

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Rappaport was going on this morning about how he expects Brady to not sign with the Pats before going out and testing the official FA waters. Completely dismissed the dead cap hit that would make it harder for the Pats to get him help and ignored the reality that teams can do covert communications with Brady camp before FA period starts.
For Tom to stay, it does seem like they are going to have to kick the can on contracts.
 

bsj

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For Tom to stay, it does seem like they are going to have to kick the can on contracts.
I love Tom but this whole situation to me reads like Tom wanting to give the Pats a path to keeping him publicly, but knowing full well it’s going to be virtually impossible to do so, so he doesn’t look like a bad guy when he leaves.

The math just doesn’t add up, and he probably knows it. Maybe I’m wrong.
 

snowmanny

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Dec 8, 2005
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If Tom leaves he’s not a bad guy; he shouldn’t have to worry about his reputation around here. The Pats aren’t bad guys if he leaves either. It will be sad for me if circumstances and finances don’t align correctly but at least in my book if it ends now everybody on both sides gets a pass after delivering us the greatest run of a single player on a single team in NFL history.
 

BigJimEd

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This is just media speculating based on other media members speculating. I'd take everything for the next month with a huge grain of salt.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Rappaport was going on this morning about how he expects Brady to not sign with the Pats before going out and testing the official FA waters. Completely dismissed the dead cap hit that would make it harder for the Pats to get him help and ignored the reality that teams can do covert communications with Brady camp before FA period starts.
We should have traded him before the 2019 season and stapled David Price to him for some injured prospects
 

BunnzMcGinty

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Jul 17, 2011
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This is just media speculating based on other media members speculating. I'd take everything for the next month with a huge grain of salt.
Exactly. The only people who know ANYTHING of value right now are Brady, Belichick and the Krafts, and they’re all smart enough not to leak anything right now. Everything we’re getting is ridiculous over analysis of both sides doing their due diligence investigating all their options. I’m not even paying attention until the second week of March.
 

nattysez

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Rappaport was going on this morning about how he expects Brady to not sign with the Pats before going out and testing the official FA waters. Completely dismissed the dead cap hit that would make it harder for the Pats to get him help and ignored the reality that teams can do covert communications with Brady camp before FA period starts.
Brady should fire Don Yee if he doesn't know where he's headed by the end of the combine.
 

MonstahsInLeft

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I'm in the camp that thinks there's no real way to know what Brady's thinking at this point about staying or leaving so I'm not gonna try and read those tea leaves for now. I'd GUESS that he prefers to stay with the Pats if they don't completely screw him over with an offer, and he's just trying to keep his options open for that scenario but it's speculation.

I mean he may really be excited about the possibility of a fresh start with lots of playmakers, doesn't see a realistic path to a good offense here in 2020, can potentially get $30/million for 2-3 years somewhere else, and just is ready to walk away regardless of what the Pats offer. It's definitely possible.

But, even if he wants to stay, the Pats still need to decide whether they want to bring him back so I think from the Patriots side this really comes down to two things:
- The rolled over cap hits (ie. $13 million this year vs $6.5 million for two years)
- Do they think Stidham can be their franchise QB starting this year.

Because unless the second of those things is true I'd argue the cap hits point toward Brady being their best choice unless he's just determined to get paid (ie $30+ million) or walk away.

If they've somehow seen enough behind the scenes from Stidham to be comfortable giving him the keys in an "early dynasty" scenario (ie lean on great defense, with perhaps only avg QB play to start) and then have more money to upgrade an aging team with free agents I think that's their best-case non-Brady path forward. Then they'd probably look for a cheap veteran to back him up but the plan would be for Stidham to be the man from the start. I think you could hope for that team to be playoff contender next year and then have a viable future but definitely some risk there. Bill made that call on Brady vs Bledsoe back in the day so hey it's not outside the realm of possibility.

But otherwise, unless they think they can get an above avg QB starter for peanuts (<<15 million?) they'll be devoting at least $30 million to the QB position even letting Brady walk because of the $13 million rollover. In that case I think it's hard to argue that they shouldn't just pay Brady who should realistically give them at least above avg QB play next year in a less dysfunctional offense.

Any more expensive/franchise-type free agent QB PLUS $13 million on an aging team with limited offensive weapons would seem to be a bit risky this year and limiting in the medium-term so that doesn't seem likely.

I suppose with their tough schedule next year if they don't see Stidham as the future they could decide to let Brady go and blow it up to some degree, trying to hit on a 1st rd QB this year and/or next, but I don't think anyone can see Bill doing a rebuild at this point in his career (or Kraft signing off on that) especially with an excellent defense.

Personally my best-case scenario right now is they are all on roughly the same page and Brady sticks around on a reasonable deal. Realistically I don't think anyone (except Tom?) expects Brady to be a top 5 QB again (top 10 would be great) and they can't afford to pay him like one.

But if they can sign him to something like a team-friendly 2 year deal with an annual cap hit under $25 million (plus $6.5 million x2) I don't think that's "insulting" to Tom based on what to expect from him now or inconsistent with what he's been willing to do in the past to improve the teams chances. Then they have at least a little money to try and add another piece on offense, and if they can get better production from a healthy Sanu and 2nd year Harry, and have a nice draft, they could be a realistic playoff team and buy some more time to figure out who their next franchise QB is.

edit: Oh, and then Tom also talks Gronk into coming back for one more shot...that's not too much to ask is it?
 

NomarsFool

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I just have a hard time seeing how the team is able to upgrade the offense (and fill the holes on defense) with paying $25 million for a quarterback. To me, you pretty much have to roll the dice with Stidham and see what you can do. If you bring back Brady at around the same salary as last year, we have pretty much the same team as last year. Maybe the hope is that Harry gets better and Edelman is less hurt and they hit home runs in the draft. I don't know.
 

Super Nomario

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I just have a hard time seeing how the team is able to upgrade the offense (and fill the holes on defense) with paying $25 million for a quarterback. To me, you pretty much have to roll the dice with Stidham and see what you can do. If you bring back Brady at around the same salary as last year, we have pretty much the same team as last year. Maybe the hope is that Harry gets better and Edelman is less hurt and they hit home runs in the draft. I don't know.
Regardless of strategy, the team needs to have young players develop and hit on draft picks. That's where the team's growth is going to come from, whether the QB is Brady, Stidham, or someone else. Unfortunately, they've had way too few contributors from the last three drafts and they've done a poor job developing their young players. But you can't bandaid over that, even with an extra $18 MM from going cheap at QB (which likely causes plenty of its own problems).
 

MonstahsInLeft

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I just have a hard time seeing how the team is able to upgrade the offense (and fill the holes on defense) with paying $25 million for a quarterback. To me, you pretty much have to roll the dice with Stidham and see what you can do. If you bring back Brady at around the same salary as last year, we have pretty much the same team as last year. Maybe the hope is that Harry gets better and Edelman is less hurt and they hit home runs in the draft. I don't know.
Can't completely disagree although one thing that I'm not clear on (is anybody?) is what the cap hit from AB might be next year. Also if Tom is determined to walk then they'll HAVE to face some less than ideal scenarios if Stidham ISN'T the answer.

I think in my "keeping Tom" scenario above they probably have to let Thuney walk, since he'll probably get paid this off-season, and hope that one of last year's OL draft picks can step in and solidify either LG or LT (with Wynn sliding in?). Will also probably lose Van Noy (one way or another) and another piece or two on defense but they've got a little more cushion on that side of the ball.

But I think they might be able to have enough space to at least TRY for a decent/good WR or TE to boost the offense. Sanu can't possibly be as bad as he finished the season again (can he???). Hopefully being healthy and more comfortable in the system gets them an approximation of Atlanta Falcons Sanu, and I don't think improvement from Harry is much to ask.

The WR-heavy draft might help, but it seems like they need hit on some young cheap talent in general rather being able to trade away precious draft picks for offensive help.

Also I should add that if Tom sticks around skipping OTA's should NOT be an option this year. When he was throwing to system veterans like Julian and Gronk and at the top of his skills then maybe putting his family first for a few weeks a year was defensible, but after this year he needs to be there to work with Sanu, Harry, and whatever new TE's/WR's they acquire.
 

sheamonu

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Exactly. The only people who know ANYTHING of value right now are Brady, Belichick and the Krafts, and they’re all smart enough not to leak anything right now. Everything we’re getting is ridiculous over analysis of both sides doing their due diligence investigating all their options. I’m not even paying attention until the second week of March.
I think this is correct as far as it goes but there is another (fairly large) group of people out there who know something of value, and those are the teams that know, for sure, that they are not in the market for Tom Brady. When you start to add those people in to the mix it becomes apparent that there are realistically, maybe six teams who will constitute the true "market" for Brady, and when it gets to nut cutting time there would be, maybe, four real bidders. To be honest, the only one that really scares me silly at crunch time would be Tennessee. Vrabel would be able to anticipate the kinds of things that the Krafts and Belichick would stress, counter those arguments and call on the same sorts of connections, ties and loyalties when influencing a decision.

The other thing that surprises me (particularly in this forum, which is made up of people who are very savvy when it comes to statistical analysis) is the assumption that Tom is going to look for a "payday". First - we have more than a limited sample size to indicate where maxing his (direct football) salary sits in TB12's priorities. He has never put this first. Never. What evidence is there that this would be the case now? Besides which - because of the potential tax/business/investment implications involved any business analyst would tell him that, big picture, the one or two year jump in salary that would be gained through a move would likely be offset by the risk or loss associated with such a move. He's not going to get a substantial jump in endorsement revenue just because he moves to another team - he's Tom Fricking Brady for chrissakes.

The decision will be a personal one on his side and a personnel one on the Patriot's end. I can't see finance as a major motivator for either (other than as it may impact the Patriot's ability to bring in additional talent).
 

Mooch

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If you think (as I do) that Brady will return to the Pats and the team will add offensive weapons around him as part of the package... New England at 15:1 to win the Super Bowl represents TREMENDOUS betting value right now. Just sayin'. Hell, the Browns were +1200 back in April 2019 for Super Bowl 54.
 

axx

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What evidence is there that this would be the case now?
The renegotiated contract? The only logical explanation to that contract is that he was threatening to retire/hold out if he didn't get what he got.

And now he's looking for one last payday at the end of his career. That doesn't mean he will get it, or that the Pats won't be the one to pay up. The long term needs of the Pats isn't Brady's concern anymore really because he will be gone soon enough.
 
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