2020-2021 Yankees Offseason Discussion

BigSoxFan

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So...

Cole
Severino
Kluber
Taillon
Deivi
Montgomery
Schmidt
German

That’s really solid. Guessing Tanaka to Japan is close?
 

E5 Yaz

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Seems to be consensus from all reporters, that's the package. Very happy with this. Whether Taillon pans out or not, that's a trade you have to make.
Absolutely ... it's a smart buy-low opportunity
 

crow216

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So...

Cole
Severino
Kluber
Taillon
Deivi
Montgomery
Schmidt
German

That’s really solid. Guessing Tanaka to Japan is close?
Yea, I think Tanaka is gone and if they have to buy another player, it will be Gardner.

The obvious prediction here is that the Yankees are trying to get rid of Ottavino and will bundle another player with him so a team can eat his $9m, or most of it. Then Gardner comes back for around $6-8m. From there, the only additional moves I can see them making will be to add depth to the bullpen. I'd say the rotation is done right now.
 

jon abbey

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The obvious prediction is they release the pretty worthless Greg Allen, but an Ottavino move is probably in the works too.

I like this move for NY a lot, Contreras hurts a bit but they couldn't keep all of that young pitching, as I kept saying.
 

curly2

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Those two years the Pirates ran into buzzsaws in the playoffs really are painful to think about now.
Neil Huntington screwed those 2013-2015 teams so badly. When he had legitimate teams that could have won it all had they won their division and avoided Bumgarner and Arrieta in a one-game playoff, he wouldn't trade prospects for a piece to put them over the top. Sometimes you have to do that and pay the price. I'm sure Royals fans would say 2015 was worth it.

Then, when he had a marginal team that was trying to squeak into the wild card, Huntington decides to go for broke and gives up Glasnow, Meadows and a top pitching prospect in Shane Baz to get Chris Archer.

I guess that's why Neil Huntington no longer has a job.
 

jon abbey

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Gardner already got $2.5M when his option was declined, he wants to come back more than NY wants/needs him, and the rumor there was it would be around a 1/3 deal once NY has space.
 

jon abbey

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Has anyone seen anything detailed about Taillon's recovery?
He is fine, he got hurt in mid-2019 and could have come back at the end of 2020, but they held him back. Both he and Kluber should be as ready as anyone when the season starts.
 

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Yajure took a big jump forward in NY's system in 2019 with a fantastic season but doesn't have the stuff of NY's very best pitching prospects. This is NY's 11, 15, 20 and 22 prospects according to Fangraphs, good deal both ways.
 

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So much potential with that rotation. From guys recovering from injury to prospects hopefully taking some steps forward in their development.

There has got to be a ton of variability in the projections, but it is going to be a lot of fun to watch over the next couple of years.
 

jon abbey

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Clint Frazier (4 years of control), Adam Ottavino (trying to dump his salary) and Yoendrys Gomez (another talented pitching prospect who they don't really have room for) for Joey Gallo (2 years of control) works almost perfectly in the trade machine. That would be a LF upgrade and give NY the big lefty hitter they want in the middle of all those righties, plus another $5M or so under the $210M, which they are very very close to right now.
 

jon abbey

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Guessing Tanaka to Japan is close?
I don't think NY ever wanted him back, they needed to add guys with #2 potential and that is not current Tanaka. Rakuten was supposedly going to offer him $20-$25M per year to come back, obviously way way more than he would make in the US now even if NY wanted him.
 

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Also good job by Cashman not moving any of their catcher prospects as it was rumored Cherington wanted, NY needs internal catcher depth badly.
 

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Yeah, if he wasn’t, he’d be long gone from baseball, two Tommy John surgeries, testicular cancer, hit in the head by a line drive.
 

crow216

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So, the innings that last year went to Tanaka, Happ, and Paxton (or lacktherof) will go to Kluber, Taillon, and German. That is a huge transformation in both style and upside. Yes, huge risk in the rotation but I think innings management is going to be a story around baseball for the whole year because of the 2020 season. How many starting pitchers are gonna throw 30 games this season? 25?
 

jon abbey

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So, the innings that last year went to Tanaka, Happ, and Paxton (or lacktherof) will go to Kluber, Taillon, and German.
I looked at this last night, those three started 24 of NY's 60 regular season games last year. The other 36:

Cole 12
Montgomery 10
Deivi 6
King 4 (surprising!)
Loaisiga 3
Schmidt 1

In addition to Kluber/Taillon/German, Schmidt can obviously give you a lot more if needed, plus Severino mid-season. Adding two guys while keeping all of Deivi/Schmidt/King is huge, fantastic depth.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, they got four prospects for Musgrove also, eight guys would have really cut into NY’s depth. It seems like Musgrove has a higher floor and Taillon has a higher ceiling, and Cashman is rightly going for ceiling with Kluber/Taillon.
 

jon abbey

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The Fangraphs depth charts continue to love what Cashman is doing, it is shocking how far ahead of the Dodgers they have them currently. They have NY currently 1st in MLB in projected WAR from SPs (18.3 because of Cole and their depth, SD in 2nd with 16.6), 1st in bullpen (5.0 to the White Sox' 4.1) and just behind the Dodgers for position players (28.2 to NY's 28.0, HOU at 27.7 even with Straw in CF still). They have Cole at 5.6, putting NY almost a full Cole ahead of the Dodgers currently (51.3-46.2) which seems impossible although DJ signing and Turner not yet is some of that.

Also the Blue Jays are up to second in the AL and still trying to add.

 

Apisith

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I thought Cashman would be more aggressive in pushing his chips in since the core part of your window is halfway done but it's still impressive how he's been able to build SP depth without sacrificing as much prospect depth.
 

jon abbey

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NY moves Ottavino and his entire salary to BOS along with Frank German, so now they are back to 40 guys on the 40 man and around $14M under the $210M tax line. They clearly want to reallocate some of this money and think they can do better on the FA market, maybe Gardner and Trevor Rosenthal? Not too convinced Rosenthal is an upgrade on Ottavino myself.

Edit: Olney says they are paying 850K of Ottavino, so around $13M under.
 

crow216

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NY moves Ottavino and his entire salary to BOS along with Frank German, so now they are back to 40 guys on the 40 man and around $14M under the $210M tax line. They clearly want to reallocate some of this money and think they can do better on the FA market, maybe Gardner and Trevor Rosenthal? Not too convinced Rosenthal is an upgrade on Ottavino myself.

Edit: Olney says they are paying 850K of Ottavino, so around $13M under.
Given the price of Hand and Boston's willingness to take Ottavino's contract, that should indicate to us what Rosenthal would cost. I would imagine a multi-year agreement at around 10/per. Would be surprised if Cashman did that instead of use our prospects to fund a trade at the deadline.
 

jon abbey

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The Rosenthal thing doesn't make much sense to me, he had 10 superb innings for SD last regular season and then got hammered in the playoffs. NY actually had him briefly in 2019 but he couldn't throw strikes and never got out of Scranton. I only mention him because there has been a lot of smoke around him to NY on Twitter.
 

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Josh Hader makes $6.7M in 2021 and is under contract through 2023, Cashman could send a package for him theoretically.
 

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Pass on Rosenthal unless he's another guy who works down at Cressey's place and who the Yankees may have a little more insight than typical scouting.
 

crow216

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The Rosenthal thing doesn't make much sense to me, he had 10 superb innings for SD last regular season and then got hammered in the playoffs. NY actually had him briefly in 2019 but he couldn't throw strikes and never got out of Scranton. I only mention him because there has been a lot of smoke around him to NY on Twitter.
I agree. It's gonna be Gardner and a trade, not Gardner + TR. Which, by the way, would also require a trade to clear up 2 spots. Greg Allen might be 1, but still. No matter what, the Yankees will need to make a trade if they want to improve their bullpen.
 

jon abbey

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After a very slow few months for NY, things have started to fly once they finally signed DJ, just as Cashman said they would all along. That same day was Kluber, then Taillon, then Ottavino to clear money, clearly at least one other move is coming. One I would be very happy with as mentioned above:

Clint (4 years of control) and Abreu for Gallo (2 years of control) (NY adds $4.1M in salary)

Gallo did not hit too much better than Gary Sanchez in strange short 2020 (.181/.301/.378) but he seems like the ideal LHH to put between Judge and Stanton to give the pitcher a different look. Also not only is he a plus defender at all three OF positions, he can play 1B or 3B in an emergency. Also he is the rare lefty who his lefties as well as righties, .826/.825 career OPS splits. He is I think the closest thing at the plate that this generation has to Jim Thome, who had 133 career HRs through his age 26 season and ended up with 612. Gallo has 120 career HRs through his age 26 season currently, and obviously lost some with the short 2020.

I love Clint and his bat speed genuinely is special and he started to dominate ABs last year, but I think he would cost NY a lot of runs as the everyday LF and what would be even stranger would be knowing that the everyday DH would be much better out there but for odd reasons they would not switch. Gallo for Clint solves that in a big way, Stanton I think would still be solid if given the chance but Gallo defensively is a weapon.

Right now Clint is most important for NY for 2023/2024, his last two years of control, because Judge can hit FA after 2022 and Clint would be a backup plan there. That is two years away though, maybe 2023 will be the year of the Martian (Florial still lurking on the 40 man too).
 

jon abbey

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That Gallo deal plus Gardner back at 1/1.5 (Ryan Zimmerman took 1/1 from WAS and Gardner already got 2.5 from NY for the option being declined) would I think put NY around $204M.

DJ 2B
Judge RF
Gallo CF
Stanton DH
Voit 1B
Torres SS
Hicks LF
Urshela 3B
Sanchez C

bench: Higgy, Ford, Wade, Gardner (Tauchman, Andujar in limbo)
 

jon abbey

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It will be interesting to see how the final Rakuten numbers compare to this report from October:

There are Japanese news reports that Tanaka’s old Japanese team Rakuten is going to offer him somewhere between $20-$25M annually (no report on length) to try to woo him back, which I think is way past where NY would go.
 

crow216

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I like Gallo a lot too but I'm not sure he would even cost Frazier. The one thing Cashman is really good at is finding value in position players that nobody else sees, so I think he could even go in another direction. However, for his own credibility, I think he needs to have a no excuses sort of year. Everyone has been staring at the lineup and pitching construction for a couple of years now wondering why we're so one-sided. Lot of lefty arms and lot of righty bats. Go out and get your lefty bat, get a power righty bullpen arm behind your 8th and 9th inning lefties. Call it an off-season. I'm so pumped for this year but it would be that much more exciting if we could fully round out this roster once and for all.
 
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If Gallo really is good in Yankee Stadium LF and CF, I'd pack Frazier and Abreu's bags for them.
 

crow216

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If Gallo really is good in Yankee Stadium LF and CF, I'd pack Frazier and Abreu's bags for them.
Have to imagine that there's a handshake agreement to come to terms with Gardner in place and, to me, that really closes the door. I like Gardner for the stability he provides, he's like a #4 pitcher who will always be healthy. But I think they really do need that lefty moved up in the lineup especially because Hicks just hasn't been the stud switch hitter and defender he could be if he were healthy.
 

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The Yankees may have the chips to get it done, but I guess I'd like to understand how interested the Reds really are in moving Castillo at all, or not.

I mean, I hope the Yankees can get him, but my enthusiasm will be tempered a bit if the Reds aren't interested unless they get an offer that blows them away. And I say that knowing that the Yankees do need to move some of their surplus at some point, and Castillo is a fine player to target for that.

Anyway, glad to see the roster coming into focus. In Cashman I trust.
I like Gallo a lot too but I'm not sure he would even cost Frazier. The one thing Cashman is really good at is finding value in position players that nobody else sees, so I think he could even go in another direction. However, for his own credibility, I think he needs to have a no excuses sort of year. Everyone has been staring at the lineup and pitching construction for a couple of years now wondering why we're so one-sided. Lot of lefty arms and lot of righty bats. Go out and get your lefty bat, get a power righty bullpen arm behind your 8th and 9th inning lefties. Call it an off-season. I'm so pumped for this year but it would be that much more exciting if we could fully round out this roster once and for all.
Truly not trolling here, but Cashman's teams haven't won a World Series in a decade, and only 1 in the past 20 years. He won 3 of them in his first three years as GM, but were those "Cashman teams"? Or were they "Gene Michael" teams?

I admire how Yankee fans speak so positively about their GM, considering how much Red Sox fans complain about ours, but what has Cashman done to earn this trust and praise?
 

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The playoffs are a crapshoot. Cashman has had fairly sustained success building a team and farm system that reliably get them to the playoffs, giving them as many chances as possible to cash in.
 

crow216

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Truly not trolling here, but Cashman's teams haven't won a World Series in a decade, and only 1 in the past 20 years. He won 3 of them in his first three years as GM, but were those "Cashman teams"? Or were they "Gene Michael" teams?

I admire how Yankee fans speak so positively about their GM, considering how much Red Sox fans complain about ours, but what has Cashman done to earn this trust and praise?
Shortish answer is that he rarely loses a trade and rarely overpays for players. The team is able to restructure itself as needed because of how he continues to manage and build the farm system. I think fans outside of NY get stuck on the WS too much. Cashman didn't have proper control of the team until probably 2016 when he finally convinced Hal to do a rebuild. As soon as that happened there was a flurry of trades that netted the team so much value that the farm system was top 5 and the roster was contending for a world series almost immediately. Now, a few years later, the system is powerful, the roster is flexible, and they aren't a team like in 2010 who is being dragged down by heavy contracts. Even Stanton, who is the worst contract on the team, only costs $22-23/yr AAV.

Edit: That isn't to say Cashman is perfect. I trust that he knows what the problems are on the roster and who can help solve them. I also believe he is too gunshy with making splashy trades using his big prospects. The Yankees have Cole now, but they also lost out on a lot of big aces along the way who could have tipped the balance in 2018/2019, including Cole. Aces are hard to come by so Cashman seems to always settle for an upside #2. This year, he's settling for like 5 of those and hoping a couple pan out.
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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The playoffs are a crapshoot. Cashman has had fairly sustained success building a team and farm system that reliably get them to the playoffs, giving them as many chances as possible to cash in.
That's fair.

I think I am happier with the Red Sox results in the past 20 years than I would be with the Yankee results, but there is definitely value in getting into the tournament each year and having a chance to win.
 

crow216

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That's fair.

I think I am happier with the Red Sox results in the past 20 years than I would be with the Yankee results, but there is definitely value in getting into the tournament each year and having a chance to win.
Maybe. But this is the discussion that you guys were having on the Sox forum after Cherington left, right? Would you rather seesaw and win a couple ships or consistently be in the running? The Sox team that won is now long gone and they're attempting to rebuild. Probably preference but I'm not unsatisfied watching baseball just because they haven't won recently. I firmly believe it will happen. Especially with the sucktitude of the AL at the moment.
 

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That's fair.

I think I am happier with the Red Sox results in the past 20 years than I would be with the Yankee results, but there is definitely value in getting into the tournament each year and having a chance to win.
I'm 50 years old and I've been lucky enough to see the Yankees win seven championships. I'm young enough that I think I'll see more, though I know there are no guarantees.

I appreciate having a team with a reasonable shot and something to root for (almost) every year.
 

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Maybe. But this is the discussion that you guys were having on the Sox forum after Cherington left, right? Would you rather seesaw and win a couple ships or consistently be in the running? The Sox team that won is now long gone and they're attempting to rebuild. Probably preference but I'm not unsatisfied watching baseball just because they haven't won recently. I firmly believe it will happen. Especially with the sucktitude of the AL at the moment.
I think I suggested I am happier with the seesaws. To me, coming in 2nd or 3rd is the same as coming in last (I mean in the division, I don't mean losing the ALCS or WS is the same as last). The losing years suck, but at least we sometimes know early that we don't have to worry about fall plans getting in the way of the playoffs
 

crow216

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I think I suggested I am happier with the seesaws. To me, coming in 2nd or 3rd is the same as coming in last (I mean in the division, I don't mean losing the ALCS or WS is the same as last). The losing years suck, but at least we sometimes know early that we don't have to worry about fall plans getting in the way of the playoffs
Sure. I'm 33 and have seen 5 WS wins and historic 2001 and 2004 series. From 2017 to now, this team has been non-stop entertainment and excitement. Watching the emergence of Judge in 2017 was as fun as anything I've seen on the Yankees in 20 years. I'll take that right now. Call me in 5 years and ask me again, though. Cashman does need to pass the test again.
 

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Honestly, I don't care anymore about playing for a title every year. Last season was fascinating -- not because of the pandemic, but because of the cavalcade of non-entities that made their way through Fenway. They were terrible, but they held my interest.

Give me an interesting failure over a boring favorite -- or a we have a chance every year because we spend more money than the other guys franchise -- any day. That's why 2013 is my second favorite Red Sox title, because that team was so ... weird. It's also why I enjoy what the Rays and A's do ... and follow the Royals and Pirates of the baseball world.
 

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Well, this looks like a rare year when both fanbases have a chance to be happy.

Lose can start his plans almost a full year in advance, E5 Yaz gets to watch an interesting failure, and Yankees fans can hopefully watch a competitive team.
 

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Well, this looks like a rare year when both fanbases have a chance to be happy.

Lose can start his plans almost a full year in advance, E5 Yaz gets to watch an interesting failure, and Yankees fans can hopefully watch a competitive team.
And I've been so careful not to sound at all like I might be trolling here, but with a month to go until spring training (hopefully) I think it's too soon to make those sorts of comments. Yes, the NYY look strong, but the Sox still have some moving pieces.
 

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Truly not trolling here, but Cashman's teams haven't won a World Series in a decade, and only 1 in the past 20 years. He won 3 of them in his first three years as GM, but were those "Cashman teams"? Or were they "Gene Michael" teams?

I admire how Yankee fans speak so positively about their GM, considering how much Red Sox fans complain about ours, but what has Cashman done to earn this trust and praise?
The way I think of it is that Cashman 1 got fired in mid-2016 after getting his ass kicked for a few seasons by Sox development, and Cashman 2 immediately took over. Cashman 2 has been insanely good, adding talent at every level of the system and seriously restructuring the coaching staff. He has yet to break through with another title, but NY has been a top 3-5 team in MLB for 4-5 years running (including 2021, on paper anyway). Positioning your team in the top handful in MLB year after year and continually trying to make them better seems like the definition of a top GM.