2020-2021 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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If I thought Gleyber would develop into an OK defensive shortstop, I might feel differently, but I think his defense will always be inadequate there. It's possible I'm wrong about this, we'll see.
 

jon abbey

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Hahaha, Joe Sheehan wrote "If the Yankees lineup leans any more to the right, it will be banned from Facebook."
 

crow216

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I'm rarely in agreement with the consensus of twitter but it does piss me off that the Yankees would need to pay for Castillo with a player like Gleyber when superstars have been moving around the league for prospect packages that aren't all that impressive in most cases.
 

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I'm rarely in agreement with the consensus of twitter but it does piss me off that the Yankees would need to pay for Castillo with a player like Gleyber when superstars have been moving around the league for prospect packages that aren't all that impressive in most cases.
Why? Castillo is a player like Gleyber.

It is the potential "plus" portion of the speculation that irritates me, but I don't blame the Reds if they're asking for the moon. Especially if they aren't eager to deal Castillo, which I think might be true.
 

jon abbey

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I'm rarely in agreement with the consensus of twitter but it does piss me off that the Yankees would need to pay for Castillo with a player like Gleyber when superstars have been moving around the league for prospect packages that aren't all that impressive in most cases.
Castillo gets paid a lot less than Darvish or Snell, and the Snell package was pretty sizable.
 

crow216

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Sure, those packages were sizable but they didn't demand a middle of the order cost-controlled bat. When is the last time teams swapped star young players?
 

jon abbey

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It's not that simple though, it's also what CIN needs/wants and what else NY has to offer.

NY sending Gleyber plus two pitching prospects like Gomez/Vizcaino is an overpay (although not according to baseballtradevalues) but it would make NY better IMO since there are so many shortstops available now and next winter. It's not always about winning every trade, sometimes it is about improving the team.
 

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We'll see what happens, but I suspect the Reds' ask is closer to Gleyber plus someone from the Garcia/Schmidt/King grouping and one of Gomez/Vizcaino or another player in that range.

I could see them wanting a pitcher they could slot in immediately to replace Castillo.

Anyway, the deal hasn't happened yet, so whatever the ask is, Cashman (so far) thinks it is too much.
 
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terrynever

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Sure, those packages were sizable but they didn't demand a middle of the order cost-controlled bat. When is the last time teams swapped star young players?
Best Outdated Old Guy reference I can offer is the 1960 trade of Rocky Colavito (27) for Harvey Kuenn (30).

Or, Bobby Murcer (28) for Barry Bonds (28) in 1975.

Gleyber is much younger but in a way he is not a perfect young star, thanks to his glove and tendency to bulk up. Remember how he came to the second spring training of 2020 with an extra 10 pounds around his middle and then spent a month playing himself into shape? I like my shortstops lean, like Didi.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, I'd be thrilled to have Gleyber as NY's 2B for the foreseeable future, but now DJ is locked in there.
 

terrynever

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Yeah, I'd be thrilled to have Gleyber as NY's 2B for the foreseeable future, but now DJ is locked in there.
Gleyber is a pretty similar comp to Cano at this age. Robbie was a better all-around hitter but Gleyber hits with more power at a similar age. Both are thick-bodied with a tendency to gain weight. Robbie was the better fielder. Pretty amazing Yanks developed them both within 15 years of each other. Can you trade a potential HOFer at 24? Tough call. Can Castillo handle NY, or is he Javier Vazquez? Good thing Abbey is the GM. I think Crow is Constanza, assistant to the traveling secretary, and funny.
 

jon abbey

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That Padres offer seems like it would have been very easy for Cashman to top, so maybe he didn’t think Musgrove was an answer.
 

crow216

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That Padres offer seems like it would have been very easy for Cashman to top, so maybe he didn’t think Musgrove was an answer.
You have to admit that there is a part of Cashman that seemingly values prospects too highly during SP trades. He seems unwilling to make trades like this that wouldn't hurt the system much. You know me well enough to know I'm Cashman's biggest fan but I'm getting pretty frustrated with how many pitchers just come off the board that we could have really used. His track record finding offensive players is insane, but he sucks at getting SP.
 

jon abbey

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Maybe but there’s so much that we never know. In the past, he got Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn for totally reasonable prices, they sucked when they got to NY and then when they left, both immediately turned into top 10 pitchers in the entire game and have stayed there for two seasons. That isn't on him. This winter, if they are genuinely determined to stay under $210M and reset the tax rate, then there wasn't much he could do if they wanted to keep DJ, which they obviously did. Getting DJ and Kluber for $26M total in 2021 when other teams offered more for each (TOR offered DJ 4/78 and one article said multiple teams offered more than NY for Kluber) is impressive on its own.

Also NY hasn't had young pitching like this in a long time, certainly not this many guys. If NY doesn't make another SP move, it means they think those guys are ready to contribute now, starting with Deivi and Schmidt, but with Vizcaino and Gil and Medina and Contreras and Gomez (all seven on the 40 man already) right behind them. That is damn exciting to me as a Yankee fan.

But I would still try to do a deal centered around Gleyber and Castillo. :)
 

crow216

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Maybe but there’s so much that we never know. In the past, he got Sonny Gray and Lance Lynn for totally reasonable prices, they sucked when they got to NY and then when they left, both immediately turned into top 10 pitchers in the entire game and have stayed there for two seasons. That isn't on him. This winter, if they are genuinely determined to stay under $210M and reset the tax rate, then there wasn't much he could do if they wanted to keep DJ, which they obviously did. Getting DJ and Kluber for $26M total in 2021 when other teams offered more for each (TOR offered DJ 4/78 and one article said multiple teams offered more than NY for Kluber) is impressive on its own.

Also NY hasn't had young pitching like this in a long time, certainly not this many guys. If NY doesn't make another SP move, it means they think those guys are ready to contribute now, starting with Deivi and Schmidt, but with Vizcaino and Gil and Medina and Contreras and Gomez (all seven on the 40 man already) right behind them. That is damn exciting to me as a Yankee fan.

But I would still try to do a deal centered around Gleyber and Castillo. :)
It's exciting if you're letting one or two of the kids fight for a spot and then cover injuries during the season. It's not exciting if your championship contending team only has 1 SP who has pitched more than 75 innings since 2018. Severino, Kluber, Montgomery, and German are all absolutely unknowns. And the pitcher who is the most likely to contribute in that group, JM, has the lowest ceiling.

I agree there is too much we'll never know. I just have a hard time believing this isn't completely about the luxury tax.
 

jon abbey

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Interestingly Fangraphs still has NY's rotation as the best in baseball currently, still barely ahead of SD after the Musgrove deal and way ahead of the second best AL rotation (2-7 are all in the NL, White Sox are 8th).

 

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I can't get mad if Cashman trusts his own scouts and analytics and believes his own young pitchers have potential to contribute as much as non-elite pitchers from other organizations. Keeping those cheap(er) contracts makes it easier to pay elite talent too.

I mean, Jon's right that Cashman could have easily topped that deal. But he didn't. Seems likely they either thought Musgrove wouldn't move the needle much compared to in-house options, or Cashman knows he needs some of the same pieces for a different, and presumably better, pitcher.
 

jon abbey

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No one is really stretched out with game innings after the short 2020, but that is where NY can test their kids more by rotating them through, Gil and Medina are already in their second year on the 40 man. If the season is less than 162 games (still up in the air), that is less innings to cover also.

Again, Houston was one game from the WS with nine rookies on their pitching staff last year, mostly not ultra prospects either. Framber Valdez was bad in 2019, a 25 year old with a 5.86 ERA in 70 innings, 30 GMs would have taken Loaisiga over him coming into last season. They gave Framber (such a good name) another chance out of necessity in 2020 and he blossomed into their ace, just 5 ERs allowed in 4 postseason starts, 24 14 5 5 10 26. NY has so many guys right now who potentially have that in them, and they think they have the guys in place now in Cressey and Blake (along with Cole and now hopefully Kluber as veteran mentors) to pull it out of them.

 

jon abbey

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Castillo is such a perfect fit though, Gleyber is great but so much more replaceable. Make it happen, Brian.
 

jon abbey

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Now the Fangraphs lists have been recalculated and SD is just ahead of NY in collective SP, but NY is way ahead of everyone overall, even the Dodgers, and the next AL team is the White Sox in 5th. #1 in offense, #2 in rotation, #1 in bullpen.

 

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I'm glad that Cashman is secure enough in his position that he doesn't have to make (or not make) a deal out of fear that he will 'lose' a trade, or (I think), feel too much pressure to placate the local media and fanbase by making a deal he may not fully believe in.

He doesn't always make the right call, but I never feel like he's rolling a couple of 20-sided dice when making a decision. As a fan, I appreciate that.
 

crow216

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I'm glad that Cashman is secure enough in his position that he doesn't have to make (or not make) a deal out of fear that he will 'lose' a trade, or (I think), feel too much pressure to placate the local media and fanbase by making a deal he may not fully believe in.

He doesn't always make the right call, but I never feel like he's rolling a couple of 20-sided dice when making a decision. As a fan, I appreciate that.
I appreciate it to the point that he isn't using his big chips and hurting the future of the team but we are establishing a bit of a trend where Cashman comes up empty and short when filling out the rotation via trade.

And to Jon's post above, I really don't understand why we've built the offense SO right-handed.
 

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..but we are establishing a bit of a trend where Cashman comes up empty and short when filling out the rotation via trade.
Yeah, trades for guys like Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and James Paxton didn't work out as well as we hoped. I think Cashman has done better with young pitchers already in the organization like Severino, Montgomery and German.

Seems like the biggest organizational problem has been health management and bad injury luck.

So, we'll see how well the latest crop of young pitchers turns out, but I'm more confident in Cashman trusting these young guys or using a bunch of assets to get a more elite pitcher like Castillo. I'm not sweating guys like Musgrove going somewhere else.

Like you said, Cashman hasn't been as successful filling out the rotation with Musgrove types. I'm a little confused why you seem so insistent he keeps trying. ;)
 

terrynever

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My two cents: I enjoy rooting for home-grown young players more than I do players, especially pitchers, who come in from elsewhere. I like to see a couple starting pitchers from the organization blossom. You always need a few outsiders and I accept that. Cole and Kluber are an elite 1-2 if the latter bounces back.
Schmidt got a taste last season and hopefully he learned from his baptism by fire. Deivy needs to step up, too, although he is closer than Schmidt. Yanks need a couple of the elite pitching prospects to break through in the bullpen, too.
Torres at shortstop always worries me. Whether it’s Didi or Simmons, I would be more comfortable with either. And so would the pitching staff. Prefer Didi because he hits lefty. And he has succeeded in pinstripes. But I suspect it’s going to be Gleyber. I’m just going to hold my breath when the ball is hit to short because even if he fields it cleanly, Gleyber’s liable to bounce his throw and then we gotta worry about Voit pulling a muscle trying to corral it.
Defense, guys. I am not comfortable with it. And I didn’t even mention Gary!
 

jon abbey

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And to Jon's post above, I really don't understand why we've built the offense SO right-handed.
It's very easy to shift pull-happy lefties in Yankee Stadium and most of NY's RHH hit righties just fine, but also I think it has just worked out that way. NY's kryptonite is certainly still hard throwing righties like Verlander and Glasnow but I think that might be true if they had a few more lefties in there also.
 

jon abbey

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OK, here is a ridiculously large deal between the Yankees and Cubs that might make sense both ways if 11 player deals ever actually happened, works on the baseballtradevalues calculator:

NY gets:

Hendricks (37.5)
Contreras (28.7)
Baez (11.7)
Happ (31.4)

BTV total: 109.3, around $36M payroll in 2021

CHI gets:

Torres (69.2)
Frazier (26.8)
Higashioka (6.8)
Loaisiga (6.7)
Yajure (5.4)
Abreu (2.4)
Ottavino (-5.3)

BTV total: 112, around $15M payroll in 2021

That would leave NY around $224M in payroll, above $210M but below the second level of $230M.

NY gets their additional SP in Hendricks, strengthens catcher by pairing Contreras with Sanchez, Happ is around the same as Clint but more flexible, and Baez plays SS for a year and auditions. CHC get the prodigal son back in Torres, plus Frazier and Higgy who are both cost-controlled for years and three young arms and save a bunch of money now and in the future.

Or a much much simpler version of that would just be to sign Jose Quintana, who I believe is another Cressey student.
 

jon abbey

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So NY still needs to clear two 40 man spots to make the DJ and Kluber deals official, they can't postpone those moves forever. If they can't make a bigger deal, Greg Allen and Albert Abreu (both out of options) seem like the most likely guys to be DFAd or traded for something small.
 

jon abbey

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So as we said above, if Cashman let Musgrove go to SD for an easy to top package, either 1) he is pretty sure he can do better or 2) he likes what he has.

If it is 1, an interesting target might be Jameson Taillon, controlled through 2022, very cheap and potentially a #2/#3. Cole knows him well from PIT, he would presumably be a lot cheaper than Castillo (still the #1 target if possible), and PIT will get more if they move him now.
 

jon abbey

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It's been a full week now since the DJ and Kluber signings were announced, still no official announcements or 40 man moves.
 

jon abbey

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FWIW I think the last time that Cashman gave up a genuine prospect in a trade was Sheffield for Paxton in Nov 2018. Developing your own pitching is probably the single best thing you can do as a GM, but you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to move 'em.
 

crow216

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FWIW I think the last time that Cashman gave up a genuine prospect in a trade was Sheffield for Paxton in Nov 2018. Developing your own pitching is probably the single best thing you can do as a GM, but you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to move 'em.
Sign off on this 100%. If you would have told me Clint Frazier would be on this team in 2021 3 years ago, I would have laughed.
 

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I don't have a problem hanging onto Frazier at this point, considering Stanton and Judge not being able to stay healthy.

I'd like to trade some of the pitching depth, though.
 

jon abbey

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It’s going to be a little odd if Clint is the regular LF and Stanton is the regular DH because Stanton is still almost certainly a decidedly better defensive option there and he doesn’t get hurt playing the field.
 

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I don't mind keeping Frazier either, but I suspect that now might be the right time to sell.

The bat is for real, but I'm not confident the defense is. I think he might get exposed in that big left field.

But I do like rooting for him.
 

jon abbey

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There is a good chance NY has multiple trades very close because PIT Cherington so far has preferred to trade for guys he mostly doesn't have to protect yet on the 40. NY has plenty of those but still need to clear 40 man spots for DJ/Kluber. Whether that second deal will be major or minor, obviously no idea, although Taillon would push all of the rotation depth down one. Guys like Vizcaino and Yajure and Gomez are very talented arms, Loaisiga and King too, two of those plus a position player or two seems like enough to me but I guess we will see. If Cherington prefers someone like Osiel Rodriguez (very talented Cuban SP who just turned 19), Cashman has possibilities all along the development spectrum.
 

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There is a good chance NY has multiple trades very close because PIT Cherington so far has preferred to trade for guys he mostly doesn't have to protect yet on the 40. NY has plenty of those but still need to clear 40 man spots for DJ/Kluber. Whether that second deal will be major or minor, obviously no idea, although Taillon would push all of the rotation depth down one. Guys like Vizcaino and Yajure and Gomez are very talented arms, Loaisiga and King too, two of those plus a position player or two seems like enough to me but I guess we will see. If Cherington prefers someone like Osiel Rodriguez (very talented Cuban SP who just turned 19), Cashman has possibilities all along the development spectrum.
Rays are sniffing around Taillon, too.
 

E5 Yaz

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Those two years the Pirates ran into buzzsaws in the playoffs really are painful to think about now.
 

crow216

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Never heard of this guy. Is he reliable?
He's getting there. Has picked up a few stories, part of the younger group of bloggers who seem to potentially have real sources. But, right after he posted that, Passan claimed an identical package. So, yes.
 

E5 Yaz

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He's getting there. Has picked up a few stories, part of the younger group of bloggers who seem to potentially have real sources. But, right after he posted that, Passan claimed an identical package. So, yes.
Bloggers with sources. It's a whole new crazy world out there