2020-2021 Yankees Offseason Discussion

jon abbey

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Abbey keeps talking about Gallo but have there been any actual rumors about him being on the block?
He's only under contract through 2022 and TEX is quite far from contending so it seems pretty obvious, but there are plenty of articles too. Here is one:

 

jon abbey

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Also this shouldn't be a Cashman discussion thread, but he is currently trying to do the hardest thing in baseball, remain a contender year after year while developing quite a bit of 'homegrown' (I hate this word in this context, they're not plants) pitching. It's so tempting to send guys like Deivi and Schmidt and Medina away for more developed players, but Cashman has yet to do that.

The interesting thing about this rebuild to me is that it has been focused on all levels, the wave of high ceiling pitchers is now starting to hit and in a couple of years, the wave of high ceiling position players will hopefully hit (Dominguez, Alcantara, Duran, Vargas, all in Fangraphs' top 100 already, plus Florial, Peraza, Volpe, Cabello, Pereira, and hopefully Roderick Arias, if four of those ten hit, NY will be sitting pretty).

 

Lose Remerswaal

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I agree he has threaded that needle nicely. Remaining competitive year after year AND having a strong system is something I don't think any other team has done.

My point was simply the general lack of World Championships in the past 20 years. Something that the Red Sox, Giants, and Cardinals have been better at over those years. At some point, being really competitive isn't enough for many fans. See 1991-2005 Braves for instance, and see how happy their fans were with their continued excellence . . . but mostly "not quite there"
 

terrynever

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Long-term continuity at the top is difficult to sustain. Red Auerbach and the Celtics had 40 good years although the last 10 were kind of mediocre. Belichick and Kraft. Was 20 great years enough?
Cashman has remained relevant over the years and kept up with the changing visions of the sport. And he remains in the same job that he assumed in 1998, albeit with more power.
But the bottom line for the Yankees is World Series championships. If Hal Steinbrenner ever wearied of contending, he might move Cashman into a more ceremonial role. For this year, though, Cashman fulfilled Hal’s initial request — get under the salary cap.
 

jon abbey

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I agree he has threaded that needle nicely. Remaining competitive year after year AND having a strong system is something I don't think any other team has done.
The Friedman Dodgers have, they have been Cashman's main role model in what he's built.

My point was simply the general lack of World Championships in the past 20 years. Something that the Red Sox, Giants, and Cardinals have been better at over those years. At some point, being really competitive isn't enough for many fans. See 1991-2005 Braves for instance, and see how happy their fans were with their continued excellence . . . but mostly "not quite there"
I mean, they won 4 out of 5 right before that and were two outs away from 5 of 6. Are there really a lot of people who remember 2004 and don't remember 1996-2001? The Yankee fan base is almost entirely morons (most fan bases probably are but I pay attention to the Yankee one) who would be running a $400M payroll for an 85 win team if they had their way.
 

jon abbey

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I might spin some of these off into a Cashman thread but now you guys have me researching:

2017: NY wins the wild card game, knocks off the best team in MLB CLE 3-2 in the ALDS, and loses to eventual WS champs* HOU in 7.
2018: NY wins the wild card game, loses to eventual WS BOS 3-1 in the ALDS but if Sanchez's final warning track out goes a few more feet, they would have gone to a deciding game 5.
2019: NY wins the AL East, sweeps the Twins in the ALDS, loses to Verlander/Cole and HOU again 4-2 in the ALCS.
2020: NY sweeps CLE and the best pitcher in MLB Bieber 2-0, loses 2-1 in the deciding game 5 of the ALDS to TB.

So they've been a top 3-5 team in MLB for 4 straight seasons coming into this year, and in the process they have massively upgraded their roster. Here is who is currently remaining from the 2017 team:

Judge
Hicks
Sanchez
Severino
Green
Chapman

Gardner and Warren possibly too, but the 2017 team had guys like Starlin Castro and Todd Frazier and Greg Bird in the lineup. Cashman tried this before, after DET obliterated NY in the 2012 ALCS in 4 straight, Cashman decided the team was too old and decided to revamp it entirely. This did not go well, and NY had four straight seasons between 84-87 wins before shifting to the current plan, which has obviously gone much better.
 

crow216

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I agree he has threaded that needle nicely. Remaining competitive year after year AND having a strong system is something I don't think any other team has done.

My point was simply the general lack of World Championships in the past 20 years. Something that the Red Sox, Giants, and Cardinals have been better at over those years. At some point, being really competitive isn't enough for many fans. See 1991-2005 Braves for instance, and see how happy their fans were with their continued excellence . . . but mostly "not quite there"
Red Sox fans like to say 20 years, Yankee fans like to say 25 years :)
 

crow216

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The Friedman Dodgers have, they have been Cashman's main role model in what he's built.



I mean, they won 4 out of 5 right before that and were two outs away from 5 of 6. Are there really a lot of people who remember 2004 and don't remember 1996-2001? The Yankee fan base is almost entirely morons (most fan bases probably are but I pay attention to the Yankee one) who would be running a $400M payroll for an 85 win team if they had their way.
I see you frequent NYYF still? If anyone on this board wants to dive into the dumbest forum on earth, head over.
 

Scoops Bolling

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Also this shouldn't be a Cashman discussion thread, but he is currently trying to do the hardest thing in baseball, remain a contender year after year while developing quite a bit of 'homegrown' (I hate this word in this context, they're not plants) pitching. It's so tempting to send guys like Deivi and Schmidt and Medina away for more developed players, but Cashman has yet to do that.

The interesting thing about this rebuild to me is that it has been focused on all levels, the wave of high ceiling pitchers is now starting to hit and in a couple of years, the wave of high ceiling position players will hopefully hit (Dominguez, Alcantara, Duran, Vargas, all in Fangraphs' top 100 already, plus Florial, Peraza, Volpe, Cabello, Pereira, and hopefully Roderick Arias, if four of those ten hit, NY will be sitting pretty).

I'm quite dubious of Fangraphs' evaluation of Yankees prospects; I think Longenhagen has his sources in the Yankees' org, and he's either unable to unskew the bias, or (somehow) doesn't realize it's there, because he's serially overrated Yankees' prospects his entire Fangraphs tenure. This isn't Scoops saying this as a Red Sox fan, this is Scoops saying this as a guy who has tracked prospects pretty closely for the last two decades. Guys like Florial, Cabello, Alcantara, Vargas, Roansy, Medina, etc., have all been rated well above where other evaluators have had them, and above where similar talents in other organizations have been rated. Take Luis Medina. They've had him as a 45 or 50 for three years. In that time, Medina has dealt with injury, averaged a walk rate around 14%, and never even pulled off a 2:1 K/BB. Compare him to Gerardo Carrilo. Medina has a couple inches on him, and is 8 months younger. Both guys can throw 100 mph, both have an elite curveball, except Carrillo also has a good slider and his changeup is better than Medina's. Carrillo has never walked 14% of batters; his 12% in High A was a career high, and just like Medina, Carrillo showed much better control in the second half with a 41/13 K/BB over his final 37.1 IP. Carrillo has also never been injured, and despite starting his career as a hilarious twig of a boy (he was listed at 5'10, 150 lbs), he's now estimated at around 185 lbs. Yet somehow despite having stuff as good as Medina's, except with a deeper repertoire, better results, less injuries, and pitching at a more advanced level...Carrillo is still rated a 40+. Which isn't even to say he should be rated a 45 or a 50, just that Medina absolutely should not be regarded as a 45 or 50. And it's that same kind of thing with all these guys. Like, Alex Vargas. Fine, if very far off middle infield prospect. Fangraphs throws a 50 FV on him, yet look at him versus say...Bryan Ramos of the White Sox. Ramos was younger, played at a higher level, and posted better numbers, all while getting consistently strong reviews from scouts...and Fangraphs drops a 40 on him. Again, not to say that Ramos is a 50, because he isn't...but Vargas is absolutely not a 50 either. Vargas is much more of a Leonardo Jimenez than he is Orelvis Martinez, to use examples from a team in the division. And don't even get me started on Alcantara, whose ranking last year was one of the worst Top 100 placements since Kevin Goldstein was still pumping them out.

TL; DR: Fangraphs serially overrates Yankees prospects.
 

jon abbey

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I'm quite dubious of Fangraphs' evaluation of Yankees prospects; I think Longenhagen has his sources in the Yankees' org, and he's either unable to unskew the bias, or (somehow) doesn't realize it's there, because he's serially overrated Yankees' prospects his entire Fangraphs tenure. This isn't Scoops saying this as a Red Sox fan, this is Scoops saying this as a guy who has tracked prospects pretty closely for the last two decades. Guys like Florial, Cabello, Alcantara, Vargas, Roansy, Medina, etc., have all been rated well above where other evaluators have had them, and above where similar talents in other organizations have been rated. Take Luis Medina. They've had him as a 45 or 50 for three years. In that time, Medina has dealt with injury, averaged a walk rate around 14%, and never even pulled off a 2:1 K/BB. Compare him to Gerardo Carrilo. Medina has a couple inches on him, and is 8 months younger. Both guys can throw 100 mph, both have an elite curveball, except Carrillo also has a good slider and his changeup is better than Medina's. Carrillo has never walked 14% of batters; his 12% in High A was a career high, and just like Medina, Carrillo showed much better control in the second half with a 41/13 K/BB over his final 37.1 IP. Carrillo has also never been injured, and despite starting his career as a hilarious twig of a boy (he was listed at 5'10, 150 lbs), he's now estimated at around 185 lbs. Yet somehow despite having stuff as good as Medina's, except with a deeper repertoire, better results, less injuries, and pitching at a more advanced level...Carrillo is still rated a 40+. Which isn't even to say he should be rated a 45 or a 50, just that Medina absolutely should not be regarded as a 45 or 50. And it's that same kind of thing with all these guys. Like, Alex Vargas. Fine, if very far off middle infield prospect. Fangraphs throws a 50 FV on him, yet look at him versus say...Bryan Ramos of the White Sox. Ramos was younger, played at a higher level, and posted better numbers, all while getting consistently strong reviews from scouts...and Fangraphs drops a 40 on him. Again, not to say that Ramos is a 50, because he isn't...but Vargas is absolutely not a 50 either. Vargas is much more of a Leonardo Jimenez than he is Orelvis Martinez, to use examples from a team in the division. And don't even get me started on Alcantara, whose ranking last year was one of the worst Top 100 placements since Kevin Goldstein was still pumping them out.

TL; DR: Fangraphs serially overrates Yankees prospects.

Very good post and actually I agree with the general drift, I have no idea how Alcantara for example is so high. I don't know nearly enough to make specific arguments either way but your post seems more connected to reality than those FG ratings, as best as I can tell.

I will disagree though with Medina specifically, who IMO is still underrated by almost everyone including Fangraphs. He has long been touted as having the best stuff in the NY system, he couldn't throw strikes but he was still very young. In July 2019 (he had just turned 20), it all clicked and he started throwing strikes, in his final eight starts between Charleston and Tampa, Medina pitched to a 1.77 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.96 BB/9, and 12.42 K/9 in 45 2⁄3 innings. We have very little real info on most minor leaguers in the last 18 months, but Medina did dominate in Puerto Rico this winter, with these ridiculous numbers in 4 starts: 16.2 7 1 1 6 32.

TL/DR: I agree with Scoops except about Medina. :)
 

jon abbey

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NY could maybe get the reliever they supposedly want in the same deal for Gallo, this is a match on BTV:

Clint (4 years of control), Florial and Abreu for Gallo (2 years of control) and Leclerc (NY adds $8M in salary)

Leclerc is signed through 2022 and has reasonably priced team options for 2023 and 2024. The Florial/Abreu part of the deal is flexible depending on what TEX is looking for, but Clint plus prospects for Gallo/Leclerc might work both ways. Leclerc isn't a lock to be awesome, but he is eight years younger than Ottavino.

That would leave NY around $206M, not enough to make deadline moves and stay under $210M, but that seems like something to worry about later on if needed.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Red Sox fans like to say 20 years, Yankee fans like to say 25 years :)
My discussion started with the Cashman era, and I asked if those titles in his first few years were his or were they Gene Michael’s. If you are answering that they are his then I have no disagreement with his overall success.


just his success over the past 20 years. ;)
 

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My discussion started with the Cashman era, and I asked if those titles in his first few years were his or were they Gene Michael’s. If you are answering that they are his then I have no disagreement with his overall success.
Cashman started working for the Yankees in 1986 as an intern. In 1992 he became the Assistant GM. Given that he was promoted into the top job in 1998, I'm pretty comfortable assuming that he contributed to organizational success before he got to sit in the big chair. You don't promote someone who isn't doing a good job. Gene Michael was awesome too. I think there is plenty of credit to go around for that dynasty. Plenty of blame for the down years too.

I think you would have a better point if Cashman had come from outside the organization to take over in 1998.
 

crow216

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My discussion started with the Cashman era, and I asked if those titles in his first few years were his or were they Gene Michael’s. If you are answering that they are his then I have no disagreement with his overall success.


just his success over the past 20 years. ;)
Fair enough, I thought we had turned the discussion more into a "what would you rather have? Scenario A or Scenario B"
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Fair enough, I thought we had turned the discussion more into a "what would you rather have? Scenario A or Scenario B"
That’s a discussion that I doubt would find anyone changing sides. I expect 80% of Sox fans would say they are satisfied with their results and 80% of Yankee fans would also be satisfied with their team’s results
 

terrynever

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That’s a discussion that I doubt would find anyone changing sides. I expect 80% of Sox fans would say they are satisfied with their results and 80% of Yankee fans would also be satisfied with their team’s results
Not me. But I do appreciate the Yankees not tanking. There were a couple seasons where Girardi willed his team over .500. Unlike, say, Bobby Valentine.
 

jon abbey

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So the question is would you rather have had NY's or BOS's performance over the 20 year period from 2001-2020? My initial thought was of course Boston with 4 rings to 1, but then I remembered that 2001 is one of my alltime favorite few Yankee teams, all three of their postseason series that year were incredible.

Playoff teams: NY 16, BOS 9
100 win teams: NY 6, BOS 1

BOS barely won any postseason series in their non-title years, 3 of those 9 were swept 3-0 in the ALDS. If you count the wild card coin flip game as a 'series', NY was 15-15 in postseason series in these 20 years, BOS was 14-6.

2004 to 2018 is definitely BOS though, by a lot, and man it must have been fun to root for Big Papi.
 

jon abbey

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I think Cashman would prefer to fill the Ottavino relief spot via trade and a cost-controlled guy he can keep in place longer, but I can't say I'd be upset about any of these guys, if they are really in NY's current budgetary constricts. Maybe Colome would be my pick of these four? I am still rooting for the Clint+++ for Gallo/Leclerc deal, assuming Leclerc is healthy currently.

View: https://twitter.com/MLBMarathon/status/1354246468681555968?s=20
 

Apisith

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Also this shouldn't be a Cashman discussion thread, but he is currently trying to do the hardest thing in baseball, remain a contender year after year while developing quite a bit of 'homegrown' (I hate this word in this context, they're not plants) pitching. It's so tempting to send guys like Deivi and Schmidt and Medina away for more developed players, but Cashman has yet to do that.

The interesting thing about this rebuild to me is that it has been focused on all levels, the wave of high ceiling pitchers is now starting to hit and in a couple of years, the wave of high ceiling position players will hopefully hit (Dominguez, Alcantara, Duran, Vargas, all in Fangraphs' top 100 already, plus Florial, Peraza, Volpe, Cabello, Pereira, and hopefully Roderick Arias, if four of those ten hit, NY will be sitting pretty).

What he's doing is extremely hard, and only Friedman has been able do it (and then only in a shortened-season year). But, IMO, there is an argument to be made that trying to construct perpetual 95-win teams and making sure you get into the playoffs is smart on paper but in reality, you always run into a team that's in GFIN mode and is better. Maybe it would be better to trade some future years for a few current years where the team is loaded all over and guaranteed to be the best or at least top 2 team. I know the math - especially for a financially-loaded team like the Yankees - argues for the 95-win route, continuing to replenish prospects, never trading away the core part of the future for a 2 or 3-year window to win it all. But, the list of recent WS champs (2014 onwards - even including the Dodgers to an extent) are all teams which opened up window and went for it in terms of trading away prospects/signing FAs.
 

jon abbey

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What he's doing is extremely hard, and only Friedman has been able do it (and then only in a shortened-season year). But, IMO, there is an argument to be made that trying to construct perpetual 95-win teams and making sure you get into the playoffs is smart on paper but in reality, you always run into a team that's in GFIN mode and is better. Maybe it would be better to trade some future years for a few current years where the team is loaded all over and guaranteed to be the best or at least top 2 team. I know the math - especially for a financially-loaded team like the Yankees - argues for the 95-win route, continuing to replenish prospects, never trading away the core part of the future for a 2 or 3-year window to win it all. But, the list of recent WS champs (2014 onwards - even including the Dodgers to an extent) are all teams which opened up window and went for it in terms of trading away prospects/signing FAs.
I think something more like this may happen before 2022 if NY falls short again this year, especially if they successfully reset their tax rate (which it looks like they will).
 

jon abbey

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Eh, I'm not thrilled about it in a vacuum. He is fine but not crazy about him taking up a 40 man spot and an unoptionable bullpen spot. There are still more moves to come, I think.
 

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I'm not worried about Cashman figuring out the 40 man roster crunch, and I agree there is more to come because of it.

O'Day isn't exciting at all, and he's old, but I think he can still throw strikes. There are so many young pitchers on the staff. Maybe there is also some benefit to having a little more veteran presence.
 

jon abbey

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So NY again needs a 40 man spot before they can announce all of their pending moves, and two spots if Gardner is indeed coming back. Maybe a 3 for 1 deal in the works for a LHB or a better reliever? Bring me Joey Gallo, please!
 

jon abbey

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So that puts them at 39 with Kluber and O’Day still unannounced, plus Gardner’s possible return.
 

crow216

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Tanaka officially heading back to Japan. Happy for him and for the Eagles. Class act and will miss having his stoicism on the mound. This will be the first time in awhile the Yankees don't have a star Japanese player contributing.
 

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I know he lost it in the end with the new ball, but I always enjoyed watching him pitch. When he was on, he was filthy.

I sat about 20 rows behind home plate for this game and he was dominant.

 

OurF'ingCity

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NYT Sports: Tanaka never lived up to the hype attached to his $155 million contract, but he made two All-Star teams and was the Yankees' opening day starter four times.
I know the "value" numbers FanGraphs has are extremely rough, but it's worth noting that according to those he gave them a total of around $150m in value, so that tweet isn't even really correct.

The two situations aren't precisely comparable for many reasons but in some ways Tanaka strikes me as the Yankees' version of JD Drew - he essentially played up to the value of his contract but he wasn't particularly flashy or exciting (and the Yanks never won a World Series during his tenure in NY) so it could easily feel to a more casual fan that he didn't live up to his contract.
 

terrynever

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Lindsey Adler has the best story on Tanaka behind The Athletic’s paywall. Very much a behind the scenes look at his personality and work ethic, his sense of humor, and pride in giving his best. I think we all sensed what kind of man Tanaka is but this story spells it out.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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I know the "value" numbers FanGraphs has are extremely rough, but it's worth noting that according to those he gave them a total of around $150m in value, so that tweet isn't even really correct.

The two situations aren't precisely comparable for many reasons but in some ways Tanaka strikes me as the Yankees' version of JD Drew - he essentially played up to the value of his contract but he wasn't particularly flashy or exciting (and the Yanks never won a World Series during his tenure in NY) so it could easily feel to a more casual fan that he didn't live up to his contract.
I think that is a very fair comparison. There is something to be said about players who live up to their contract, seem to be loved by their teammates and never get in trouble on or off the field.
 

jon abbey

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NY has yet to clear a 40 man spot for Darren O'Day, so essentially at 41 currently. A variant of the Gallo/Clint deal I keep pushing would clear that 40 man spot and be a nice finishing touch to the roster:

BTV values:

Gallo (25.2), Leclerc (9.6) for Clint (26.8), Gomez (4.8) and Abreu (2.4)

Gallo would give NY a big defensive boost which looks like their Achilles' heel currently. Also he would be a big lefty bat to go between Judge and Stanton, man do I want to see that.

LeMahieu 2B
Judge RF
Gallo LF
Stanton DH
Voit 1B
Torres SS
Hicks CF
Urshela 3B
Sanchez C

And that would make the bullpen:

one of King/Nelson/Kriske/Heller
Loaisiga
Cessa
O'Day
Leclerc
Green
Britton
Chapman

That's of course assuming Leclerc is healthy, I don't see much info about that either way. Gallo/Leclerc minus Clint would put NY between $207-$208M, cutting it very close certainly.
 

jon abbey

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NY has still not cleared a 40 man spot for Darren O'Day, 12 days since that was announced.
 

jon abbey

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Saw that too, I am wondering now if NY is just waiting a week or so until spring training starts and they can put Severino on the 60 day IL.
 

jon abbey

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MLBN is doing their countdown of their choices for top overall 100 players in the game going into the season, and reigning AL HR champ Luke Voit came in at #41. Urshela was #78, stealing those two with close to full team control makes up for a lot of dud draft picks by NY in recent years. Gio still has 3 more years of control through 2023 and Voit through 2024, and NY got them both for close to nothing from TOR and STL respectively (although Gio Gallegos has been good but he seemed buried here).
 

jon abbey

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Bruce had 6 HRs in 78 ABs against RHP last year, .821 OPS. His career OPS against RHP is .814, NY tried to get him a few years ago at the August deadline when the Mets were selling guys off, but the Wilpons vetoed the deal and sent him to CLE.

Bruce has mostly played RF but about 50 games at 1B, he could maybe bump Ford off the roster.