Most years I hear this from Pats fans because it's true: the Pats are always much much better than the Dolphins. And it rarely turns out like people think it will. Doesn't mean they won't pummel Miami this week, but I think a 14-point win like I predicted would be a fantastic win for them in what has always been a house of horrors.
Here's the results in the TB era in Miami...
10-7-01: L, 30-10, Brady: 12-24, 86 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 58.7 rating, Pats finished 11-5 and won the SB, Mia finished 11-5 and took 2nd in the AFCE
10-6-02: L, 26-13, Brady: 17-31, 240 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 74.7 rating, Pats finished 9-7 in 2nd in the AFCE, Mia finished 9-7 in 3rd in the AFCE
10-19-03: W, 19-13, Brady: 24-34, 283 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 115.2 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and won the SB, Mia finished 10-6 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-20-04: L, 29-28, Brady: 18-29, 171 yds, 3 td, 4 int, 73.3 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and won the SB, Mia finished 4-12 in 4th in the AFCE
11-13-05: W, 23-16, Brady: 21-36, 275 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 77.9 rating, Pats finished 10-6 and lost in the divisional rnd, Mia finished 9-7 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-10-06: L, 21-0, Brady: 12-25, 78 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 55.1 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 6-10 in 4th in the AFCE
10-21-07: W, 49-28, Brady: 21-25, 354 yds, 6 td, 0 int, 158.3 rating, Pats finished 16-0 and lost in the SB, Mia finished 1-15 in 4th in the AFCE
12-6-09: L, 22-21, Brady: 19-29, 352 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 101.5 rating, Pats finished 10-6 and lost in the divisional rnd, Mia finished 7-9 in 3rd in the AFCE
10-4-10: W, 41-14, Brady: 19-24, 153 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 107.1 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and lost in the divisional rnd, Mia finished 7-9 in 3rd in the AFCE
9-12-11: W, 38-24, Brady: 32-48, 517 yds, 4 td, 1 int, 121.6 rating, Pats finished 13-3 and lost in the SB, Mia finished 6-10 in 3rd in the AFCE
12-2-12: W, 23-16, Brady: 24-40, 238 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 74.8 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 7-9 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-15-13: L, 24-20, Brady: 34-55, 364 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 85.7 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 8-8 in 3rd in the AFCE
9-7-14: L, 33-20, Brady: 29-56, 249 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 69.7 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and won the SB, Mia finished 8-8 in 3rd in the AFCE
1-3-16: L, 20-10, Brady: 12-21, 134 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 76.3 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 6-10 in 4th in the AFCE
1-1-17: W, 35-14, Brady: 25-33, 276 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 130.4 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and won the SB, Mia finished 10-6 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-11-17: L, 27-20, Brady: 24-43, 233 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 59.5 rating, Pats finished 13-3 and lost in the SB, Mia finished 6-10 in 3rd in the AFCE
12-9-18: L, 34-33, Brady: 27-43, 358 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 112.4 rating, Pats finished 11-5 and won the SB, Mia finished 7-9 in 2nd in the AFCE
That's 7-10 for Brady in Miami. Only three of the wins were by more than 17 points (basically what the line is right now). Here were the final records for the two teams in the games the Pats lost in Miami:
NE 11-5, Mia 11-1
NE 9-7, Mia 9-7
NE 14-2, Mia 4-12
NE 12-4, Mia 6-10
NE 10-6, Mia 7-9
NE 12-4, Mia 8-8
NE 12-4, Mia 8-8
NE 12-4, Mia 6-10
NE 13-3, Mia 6-10
NE 11-5, Mia 7-9
In other words, in the last 8 losses the Pats have had in Miami, the two teams were *considerably* different in terms of talent and final record. Look at the W-L spread between the two teams in those last 8 years: NE +10, NE +6, NE +3, NE +4, NE +4, NE +6, NE +7, NE +4
Even the year they went 16-0 they "only" beat Miami by 21 points. And that year the Pats were 16-0 and the Dolphins were 1-15...the greatest margin of W-L between two teams in league history. The Pats average margin of victory that year was 19.7, so the Dolphins, as horrific as they were, stayed right there in terms of the average margin of victory for the Pats. So they played WAY above their level vs. NE that year too.
Long story short....Sure, the Pats could wipe the field with the Dolphins this weekend. But would anyone REALLY be shocked if it's a close game or if the Pats even lose? Ok, I'd be very very surprised if they LOSE, but I think it's entirely reasonable to think the Dolphins cover.