2019 Pre-Game Thread: Week 2 @ Dolphins

DeadlySplitter

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for once I don't have to worry about Miami bullshit. and it's even September and it felt like 101 in the game last week.

yeah yeah knock on wood, but they used up the ultimate miracle bullshit last time. the Pats haven't lost since then, and they're keeping it that way.
 

Kliq

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I think the game will likely be closer than most people expect; the Patriots won't play quite as well as they did last week and Miami won't play as poorly. If anyone has the ability to go from useless scrub to throwing for 300+ yards and 4 TDs from week to week, it is Fitzpatrick. Still expect a fairly uneventful Patriots victory, maybe 28-17 or something like that.

Brown is either going to have a Moss-liked debut and immediately be awesome, or he is going to be outsnapped by Dorsett and clearly need a few weeks to get into the flow of things.
 

Super Nomario

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I think the game will likely be closer than most people expect; the Patriots won't play quite as well as they did last week and Miami won't play as poorly. If anyone has the ability to go from useless scrub to throwing for 300+ yards and 4 TDs from week to week, it is Fitzpatrick. Still expect a fairly uneventful Patriots victory, maybe 28-17 or something like that.

Brown is either going to have a Moss-liked debut and immediately be awesome, or he is going to be outsnapped by Dorsett and clearly need a few weeks to get into the flow of things.
They also always play like garbage in the Miami heat and it's going to be in the mid-high 80's and humid as of today's forecast.
 

Red Averages

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It's hard for me to envision a scenario where the Dolphins score more than 13 points. It's also hard for me to envision a scenario where the Patriots score less than 31 points vs. this defense. Probably best not to over complicate it. This is a Dolphins team where anyone with talent on it is looking for an exit strategy and they are more likely to be motivated by individual success over team, meaning they are less likely to "do their jobs" and more likely to take risks that can be exploited, as the Ravens showed.

We also know BB will be playing the Miami miracle on loop for an entire week and the team will use AB's new arrival as an excuse to run up the score.

This game will be over within 10 minutes.
 

Kliq

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They also always play like garbage in the Miami heat and it's going to be in the mid-high 80's and humid as of today's forecast.
Yup, I'm surprised how many people are quickly embracing the 16-0 (for the Pats) and 0-16 (for Miami); it has been one week and a lot can happen. For all the squawking about how weak the division is, the Patriots ALWAYS manage to lose a game or two somewhere in there and rarely go 6-0, in fact the Patriots haven't gotten all six of those "free wins" since 2012.
 

Preacher

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for once I don't have to worry about Miami bullshit. and it's even September and it felt like 101 in the game last week.

yeah yeah knock on wood, but they used up the ultimate miracle bullshit last time. the Pats haven't lost since then, and they're keeping it that way.
Except the following week when they lost to the Pittsburgh.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Whoops.

Well I’m down for starting our season by taking revenge on our two most recent losses, then.
 

TheoShmeo

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Yup, I'm surprised how many people are quickly embracing the 16-0 (for the Pats) and 0-16 (for Miami); it has been one week and a lot can happen. For all the squawking about how weak the division is, the Patriots ALWAYS manage to lose a game or two somewhere in there and rarely go 6-0, in fact the Patriots haven't gotten all six of those "free wins" since 2012.
Given how bad Miami looked in week 1, the roster moves they made and the reports about some players wanting out, I can understand the 0-16 predictions. Not that I think it’s a lock or any such thing.

The AFC East Tomato Cans mantra is so overstated...the Pats’ winning percentage against their division isn’t materially better than their percentage against the rest of the NFL.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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If we’re trotting out the OL that finished the Steelers game, I can see Bill opting for a fairly conservative and run heavy gameplay that holds down scoring a lot. I’m very confident that we win. But I wouldn’t be surprised by a 23-13 score or something like that.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The Patriots have pretty consistently had 1-2 head-scratching losses in the first 4-5 weeks of the season the past few years, so I wouldn't be particularly surprised if that occurs again this year. I'd be pretty surprised if that happens against Miami (losing one of the upcoming Bills/Jets games seems more plausible) but anything's possible when the Pats have to play in Miami.
 

djbayko

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Pats opened as 16.5 point favorites, and I've seen that as high as 18.5 in some places.

Will Sony bounce back? How's the OL shake out? What will AB bring us?

Also, the Dolphins are bad:

View: https://twitter.com/ZackCoxNESN/status/1171485739273486336
Actually, they opened at 14.5 some places. Unfortunately, I missed that (or maybe fortunately?). I would've hammered but not touching it now. Although a while back I did some analysis, which showed that the more extreme an o/u or spread is, the more likely it is to be covered. The problem with this sort of thing is that the sample sizes are obviously very small at these outer edges, even over a period of 10+ years.
 

pokey_reese

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We don't actually know a lot about the quality of the teams at this point in the season (including their respective opponents), so it's possible that the Steelers are terrible, the Ravens are awesome, and the Pats got somewhat lucky and the Dolphins somewhat unlucky, even if it isn't probable that all of those things are true. The margin of victory for a road team, even in obviously lopsided contests, isn't likely to be 3+ TDs that often. It's more likely that the Dolphins score 10+ points than 0, just like it's more likely that the Pats score 20-30 points than 40-50; exceptions occur, but these are fairly normal distributions, and there are powerhouse offenses and defenses each year that play the dregs of the league. The Cardinals were total trash last year, but lost to SEA by a FG twice, and 'only' lost to KC by 12, though they got blown out by DEN 45-10, and LAR 34-0. We should win this game handily most of the time, but in a house of horrors where the only thing that matters is getting out with a win, it wouldn't be a shock if the Pats don't sniff 40 points, or the Dolphins hit on a few broken plays to score two TDs. Any given Sunday, and all.
 

dcmissle

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The Ravens put up 59 on a day hotter than Sunday’s forecast. This year that dog won’t hunt.
 

BaseballJones

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Even if BB takes it easy on Flore's Fish and calls off the hounds (fish-hounds?) can Miami score on the Pats?
Fitzpatrick throws for nearly 300 yards. They get a sack or two of Brady and create a couple of turnovers. The Pats, unlike past years, are able to pull it out, but it's much tougher than it feels like it should be. I liked the 28-17 prediction. I'll go a little lower and say 27-13. Not a breeze. But for the most part a 14-point road win against a division rival in a place that has traditionally given you fits is a pretty good margin of victory. But it won't quite be that easy. Pats win in a game they're never threatened to lose, but they can't really bury them either.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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I understand the “I’m worried bc we always lose in Miami” perspective but cmon. No way they come close to losing, no way Fitzpatrick throws for 300 yards
 

Red Averages

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Look at his career game log vs the Pats
#1 - this Mia team is very different than any of the other 19 teams Fitzpatrick has played for.
#2 - his most recent game vs the Patriots was a 41-3 loss where he was 8-21 with 2 INT.
#3 - that was back in 2016, and completely irrelevant.
#4 - Let's not over analyze what will be a non competitive football game.
 

tims4wins

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#1 - this Mia team is very different than any of the other 19 teams Fitzpatrick has played for.
#2 - his most recent game vs the Patriots was a 41-3 loss where he was 8-21 with 2 INT.
#3 - that was back in 2016, and completely irrelevant.
#4 - Let's not over analyze what will be a non competitive football game.
Hope you are right.
 

Captaincoop

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Anything can happen, but Miami is in tank mode and the Pats are debuting the best receiver in football (or one of them).

I said the line should be -24 and it may be close to that by kickoff.
 

pokey_reese

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Look at it this way: there are a distribution of outcomes here, with probabilities that have to add up to 1.0, thought YMMV on what it looks like. Given the historical record of road teams in the NFL, overreaction to week 1, and the approximate understanding we have of these teams, something like this seems fair to me:

Pats win by 28+ points: 15%
Pats win by 14-27+ points: 35%
Pats win by 1-13 points: 33%
Tie: 1%
Dolphins win by 1-13 points: 10%
Dolphins win by 14-27+ points: 5%
Dolphins win by 28+ points: 1%
 

OurF'ingCity

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Anything can happen, but Miami is in tank mode and the Pats are debuting the best receiver in football (or one of them).

I said the line should be -24 and it may be close to that by kickoff.
I suspect Brown will be featured somewhat sparingly - there's no way he can learn the entire playbook in a week or so, right? He's good enough that he can basically just run go routes or freelance and still probably pick up a chunk of yards but I wouldn't be betting on AB's presence, for this game at least, as a reason why the Pats will perform better than they would otherwise.
 

BaseballJones

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Hope you are right.
Most years I hear this from Pats fans because it's true: the Pats are always much much better than the Dolphins. And it rarely turns out like people think it will. Doesn't mean they won't pummel Miami this week, but I think a 14-point win like I predicted would be a fantastic win for them in what has always been a house of horrors.

Here's the results in the TB era in Miami...

10-7-01: L, 30-10, Brady: 12-24, 86 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 58.7 rating, Pats finished 11-5 and won the SB, Mia finished 11-5 and took 2nd in the AFCE
10-6-02: L, 26-13, Brady: 17-31, 240 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 74.7 rating, Pats finished 9-7 in 2nd in the AFCE, Mia finished 9-7 in 3rd in the AFCE
10-19-03: W, 19-13, Brady: 24-34, 283 yds, 2 td, 0 int, 115.2 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and won the SB, Mia finished 10-6 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-20-04: L, 29-28, Brady: 18-29, 171 yds, 3 td, 4 int, 73.3 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and won the SB, Mia finished 4-12 in 4th in the AFCE
11-13-05: W, 23-16, Brady: 21-36, 275 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 77.9 rating, Pats finished 10-6 and lost in the divisional rnd, Mia finished 9-7 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-10-06: L, 21-0, Brady: 12-25, 78 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 55.1 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 6-10 in 4th in the AFCE
10-21-07: W, 49-28, Brady: 21-25, 354 yds, 6 td, 0 int, 158.3 rating, Pats finished 16-0 and lost in the SB, Mia finished 1-15 in 4th in the AFCE
12-6-09: L, 22-21, Brady: 19-29, 352 yds, 2 td, 2 int, 101.5 rating, Pats finished 10-6 and lost in the divisional rnd, Mia finished 7-9 in 3rd in the AFCE
10-4-10: W, 41-14, Brady: 19-24, 153 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 107.1 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and lost in the divisional rnd, Mia finished 7-9 in 3rd in the AFCE
9-12-11: W, 38-24, Brady: 32-48, 517 yds, 4 td, 1 int, 121.6 rating, Pats finished 13-3 and lost in the SB, Mia finished 6-10 in 3rd in the AFCE
12-2-12: W, 23-16, Brady: 24-40, 238 yds, 1 td, 1 int, 74.8 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 7-9 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-15-13: L, 24-20, Brady: 34-55, 364 yds, 2 td, 1 int, 85.7 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 8-8 in 3rd in the AFCE
9-7-14: L, 33-20, Brady: 29-56, 249 yds, 1 td, 0 int, 69.7 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and won the SB, Mia finished 8-8 in 3rd in the AFCE
1-3-16: L, 20-10, Brady: 12-21, 134 yds, 0 td, 0 int, 76.3 rating, Pats finished 12-4 and lost in the AFCCG, Mia finished 6-10 in 4th in the AFCE
1-1-17: W, 35-14, Brady: 25-33, 276 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 130.4 rating, Pats finished 14-2 and won the SB, Mia finished 10-6 in 2nd in the AFCE
12-11-17: L, 27-20, Brady: 24-43, 233 yds, 1 td, 2 int, 59.5 rating, Pats finished 13-3 and lost in the SB, Mia finished 6-10 in 3rd in the AFCE
12-9-18: L, 34-33, Brady: 27-43, 358 yds, 3 td, 0 int, 112.4 rating, Pats finished 11-5 and won the SB, Mia finished 7-9 in 2nd in the AFCE

That's 7-10 for Brady in Miami. Only three of the wins were by more than 17 points (basically what the line is right now). Here were the final records for the two teams in the games the Pats lost in Miami:

NE 11-5, Mia 11-1
NE 9-7, Mia 9-7
NE 14-2, Mia 4-12
NE 12-4, Mia 6-10
NE 10-6, Mia 7-9
NE 12-4, Mia 8-8
NE 12-4, Mia 8-8
NE 12-4, Mia 6-10
NE 13-3, Mia 6-10
NE 11-5, Mia 7-9

In other words, in the last 8 losses the Pats have had in Miami, the two teams were *considerably* different in terms of talent and final record. Look at the W-L spread between the two teams in those last 8 years: NE +10, NE +6, NE +3, NE +4, NE +4, NE +6, NE +7, NE +4

Even the year they went 16-0 they "only" beat Miami by 21 points. And that year the Pats were 16-0 and the Dolphins were 1-15...the greatest margin of W-L between two teams in league history. The Pats average margin of victory that year was 19.7, so the Dolphins, as horrific as they were, stayed right there in terms of the average margin of victory for the Pats. So they played WAY above their level vs. NE that year too.

Long story short....Sure, the Pats could wipe the field with the Dolphins this weekend. But would anyone REALLY be shocked if it's a close game or if the Pats even lose? Ok, I'd be very very surprised if they LOSE, but I think it's entirely reasonable to think the Dolphins cover.
 
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lexrageorge

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I believe Brady is 7-10 in Miami. Belichick is 8-11 there (lost in 2000 with Bledsoe as QB, won in 2008 with Matt Cassel). Brady games:

2001 (10-30): Brady's second career start. Throws for 86 yards. Interestingly, his opponent, Jay Fielder, throws for only one more yard. 88 degrees.

2002 (13-26): Brady gets picked twice in the last season a Brady-led team fails to win the AFC East. 87 degrees.

2003 (19-13, OT): Olindo Mare misses a 35 yard FG when he has to kick it from the infield dirt, as the Marlins were in the playoffs. Brady follows up on a Poole pick by throwing an 82 yard catch-and-run completion to Troy Brown to win the game. 84 degrees.

2004 (28-29): One of those WTF games. Pats go up 28-17 with 4 minutes to go. Wes Welker starts the comeback by returning the kickoff for 31 yards. After Rodney Harrison is called for interference in the end zone, Sammy Morris carries it from the one. On the ensuing drive, Brady throws his 4th pick of the day, giving Miami a short field. AJ Feely completes the pass to Derrius Thompson for the go ahead score and eventual win. 52 degrees.

2005 (23-16): The 4-4 Pats, needing a win, get one. New England is nursing a 15-10 lead when Brady gets intercepted with 5 minutes to go. Gus Ferrotte drives the Dolphins to the end zone to put them ahead. Brady redeems himself with 2 long completions for a TD to put the Pats ahead 23-16, yet another Brady 4th quarter comeback. Then Miami makes it interesting when Wes Welker takes a pass 47 yards deep into Pats territory. The Dolphins get to the 5 yard line but cannot score. 82 degrees.

2006 (0-21): Another WTF game. Brady gets sacked 4 times and nets 78 yards passing. Only the 2nd time Brady has been shut out (2003 opening 31-0 loss to Buffalo being the first), and no team has pitched a shutout against Brady since. Matt Light got owned all game; we would find out years later that he suffered from Crohn's disease and mentioned games where he could barely move. 77 degrees.

2007 (49-28): Nothing was going to slow that team down, not even the 85 degree temperature. Pats go up 42-7, scoring TD's their first 5 drives. One of those being a famous play where Brady heaves it 50 yards in the air to Moss in the end zone. The Pats bring in Matt Cassel. Cassel throws an incompletion and a pick 6, which puts the score at 42-21. Not wanting to take any chances, Brady comes back out for one final drive, which ends with Brady's 6th TD pass.

2008 (48-28): Not Brady, but notable, as it's a chance for revenge after the Dolphins had unveiled the Wildcat in Foxboro in Week 3, which led to a humiliating 38-13 loss. This time the Wildcat fools no-one, and Cassel has a career day with 415 yards (2nd most of his career) and 3 TD's. 73 degrees.

2009 (21-22): After New England goes up 21-10, their next 5 drives end in 3 punts (including a couple of 3-and-outs) and 2 picks, while the D struggles to get off the field. A weird game in which Moss catches only 2 passes. 75 degrees.

2010 (41-14): The Dolphins dominated the stat line, but the Pats win thanks to TD's on a 103 yard kickoff return, a blocked FG return, and a pick 6 which seals the game in the 4th. Add in another TD after the Pats get a short field thanks to a blocked punt. Randy Moss does not catch a pass, and is traded a couple of days later. A WTF game in reverse. 80 degrees.

2011 (38-24): The Pats open their 2011 season on a Monday night in Miami. The heat doesn't bother Brady has he puts up 517 yards and 4 TD's, the most notable being a 99 yard catch-and-run to Wes Welker on a blitz. 82 degrees.

2012 (23-16): A classic grind game. New England holds Miami to a FG after a short field set up by a Brady pick is one of the key points to this game. 77 degrees.

2013 (20-24): Another grind. Brady has one of his better games in Miami, but has to hoist the ball 55 times, as the running game was absent. So was the Pats defense, as Ryan Tannehill was able to lead a 4th quarter comeback to put his team ahead. Brady amazingly drives the Pats back to the Miami 14 in under a minute late in the 4th quarter, but his desperation pass is intercepted in the end zone. 84 degrees.

2014 (20-33): A promising first half (20-10 Pats lead) to open the season turns into disaster in the 2nd, as the Pats offense stalls and the defense wilts in the heat. In a few weeks they would be on their way to Cincinnati. 89 degrees.

2015 (10-20): One of the most poorly coached (and played) games of the Belichick era. Needing a win against the 5-10 Dolphins to secure home field for the playoffs, the Pats force feed the ball to Steven Jackson and Brandon Bolden and cannot get anything going. With no Edelman and a limited Gronk, the Pats open the 3rd quarter with a nice 80 yard drive, but then punt their remaining drives away. 80 degrees.

2016 (35-14): On the first day of 2017, the Pats leave nothing to chance this time around. A 20-0 game gets close at 20-14, but a Brady completion to Edelman on a 77 yard catch-and-run seals the deal for the team's 14t win of the season. 80 degrees.

2017 (20-27): A tough day for the defense as Jay Cutler burns them for 3 TD's, and the Pats cannot get anything going. Two 4th quarter drives end in field goals, and the Pats fail to recover the onsides kick. 55 degrees, so it wasn't the heat.

2018 (33-34): We all remember this one. Gronk's last career play on defense (I believe). 82 degrees.
 

Marciano490

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The Ravens put up 59 on a day hotter than Sunday’s forecast. This year that dog won’t hunt.
I didn’t realize you were the poster at first and was going to ask if you’d experienced a Maryland summer. It’s about the only thing as gross as one in Miami. I’m guessing Ravens players don’t have as much of an issue with humidity as the Pats historically have.
 

bankshot1

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Look at it this way: there are a distribution of outcomes here, with probabilities that have to add up to 1.0, thought YMMV on what it looks like. Given the historical record of road teams in the NFL, overreaction to week 1, and the approximate understanding we have of these teams, something like this seems fair to me:

Pats win by 28+ points: 15%
Pats win by 14-27+ points: 35%
Pats win by 1-13 points: 33%
Tie: 1%
Dolphins win by 1-13 points: 10%
Dolphins win by 14-27+ points: 5%
Dolphins win by 28+ points: 1%
If you truly believe the Dolphins have a 16% chance to win outright, you should bet them heavy. The Pats -19 line converts to an almost certainty of a Pats win.(-16 points is a 98.5% win probability)

The consensus money line is Dolphins +1200, Pats -3000

good luck

but GO PATS
 

pokey_reese

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I could honestly see those numbers being a bit high, and I originally had them with a 10% chance, but my guess would be that however you want to measure these teams numerically, whether ELO, or DVOA, or FPI, teams that are about as good as the Dolphins will beat a team about as good as the Pats 1 time out of 10 (unless you buy that the Dolphins are historically bad, but I can't say that after one week). In my heart, I think the Dolphins have a less than 15% chance, but this early in the season, I have to account for the relative lack of information we have on true talent level.

(Also, emotional hedging)
 

am_dial

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2006 (0-21): Another WTF game. Brady gets sacked 4 times and nets 78 yards passing. Only the 2nd time Brady has been shut out (2003 opening 31-0 loss to Buffalo being the first), and no team has pitched a shutout against Brady since. Matt Light got owned all game; we would find out years later that he suffered from Crohn's disease and mentioned games where he could barely move. 77 degrees.

2006 was also the game when the Dolphins allegedly acquired tapes of Brady's audibles.
 

DrewDawg

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Awesome...we get the Buffalo/NYG game because they assume folks in the Redskins home market want to watch the NYG.
 

johnmd20

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Very true. Outside of garbage time stat padding, though, I’d bet he’s closer to 150 than 300. That dolphins team, fitztragic included, are horrible
I am obviously including garbage time padding in my estimation. Fitz could go wild because he's just passing in the 2nd half, down by 5 touchdowns. He probably won't throw for 350, but considering the state of the Miami team, it's possible.