2018-19 Offseason News, Rumors, Trades

BigSoxFan

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Padres offer to Machado is 8/240.

Would love to know what the next highest bid is. That’s a big deal to turn down. Padres are a baseball wasteland but that system has some really exciting young talent. A Machado/Tatis left side of the infield could be really fun to watch.
 

jon abbey

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Glad to see you're coming around
I was talking about Moustakas, I think NY is holding out for Arenado next season or possibly a mid-season trade. I think they did make an offer to Machado (supposedly around $220M in December, maybe 8 years?) and are still interested to an extent but the price is way past what they’re willing to do and most reports have Machado going to the highest bidder at this point. I think NY is putting a high value on ‘character’ with players they add at this point, hence Arenado over Machado even if they have to wait a year.

If Arenado signs an extension soon with COL, throw most of that out, but that’s my guess for now.
 

nvalvo

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If those rumored deals for Harper and Machado are in the ballpark of accurate, I want to see Betts in an extension ASAP.

If the market values Harper around ~$300m and Machado ~$240m, then Betts is somewhere in that range: all three players are 26. All three have been worth between 30 and 31 fWAR.

Betts has done it in two year's less service time, which cuts both ways. He is probably the best player of the three, but he's also a ways from FA. So I think a deal in the ballpark of Machado's should get it done for both sides.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Bruce Bochy announces that he is retiring after the 2019 season. I think its safe to say that a lot of people didn't have a high opinion of him when the Giants hired him back during the winter of 2006-07. Three world series championships later - and imho he managed each of those teams in a ruthlessly efficient manner especially in the playoffs - and he should get some consideration as one of the best MLB managers of the past 50 years or so.

 

bosockboy

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Bruce Bochy announces that he is retiring after the 2019 season. I think its safe to say that a lot of people didn't have a high opinion of him when the Giants hired him back during the winter of 2006-07. Three world series championships later - and imho he managed each of those teams in a ruthlessly efficient manner especially in the playoffs - and he should get some consideration as one of the best MLB managers of the past 50 years or so.

Hopefully he goes up for the HOF on an even year (ducks).
 

moondog80

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Not really news, but I don’t know where else to put this.

Khris Davis has hit .247 four years in a row. That has to be some sort of record. And the year before this started, he hit .244.
 

brandonchristensen

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Per Source: Angels and Mike Trout are discussing an 8yr deal between 350-375, 40 Million ++ AAV. Full no trade clause would be in the deal. *Sorry no Harper or Machado updates, but I did hear the Braves offered Machado 3yrs 90 million. Off the table now.

Would be insane if true.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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This is what we’re going to start seeing imo. No more wasting $9M on a middling FA to try to sell your fan base on you trying to compete. Haves and have nots. Much like the NFL model of a rookie QB, they use the six years of arb to spend elsewhere and shuffle the deck.
 

crow216

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This is what we’re going to start seeing imo. No more wasting $9M on a middling FA to try to sell your fan base on you trying to compete. Haves and have nots. Much like the NFL model of a rookie QB, they use the six years of arb to spend elsewhere and shuffle the deck.
Was that in response to the post above yours or something else? Extensions are nothing new.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Was that in response to the post above yours or something else? Extensions are nothing new.
Of course they aren’t anything new nor was I suggesting that. But $40M contracts are beyond normal inflation. People are citing collusion when it’s a market adjustment, IMO. Why pay $8M for Jeromy Burnitz (or whomever) to gain you half a win? I see a divide coming, if not already here, but I think it’s teams being smarter with how they spend their money. Especially with spending limited on rookies and international players, I think it’s going to start to turn into more of an NFL model - you take advantage of them being cheap young so you can pay the star, but then you dump the star early to mid 30s (especially since with no more greenies, careers are getting shorter). Then let someone else pay for their decline or they settle for less. I don’t think we see many more Albert Pujols type deals or the middling replacement player making eight figures. Teams have realized it makes more sense to pay a Trout an extra $5M (or whatever) while he’s in his prime to keep him locked in and happy than to pay a utility guy that when they can call up a rookie or sign a guy that knows that’s his role. As stated, I see there being a low end and a high end with the middle being more void. It’s only my opinion, but i don’t think it’s collusion or inflation; I think it’s a change in philosophy.
 

BoSox Rule

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Per Source: Angels and Mike Trout are discussing an 8yr deal between 350-375, 40 Million ++ AAV. Full no trade clause would be in the deal. *Sorry no Harper or Machado updates, but I did hear the Braves offered Machado 3yrs 90 million. Off the table now.

Would be insane if true.
As far as I can tell, this guy is nobody.
 

Zososoxfan

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Of course they aren’t anything new nor was I suggesting that. But $40M contracts are beyond normal inflation. People are citing collusion when it’s a market adjustment, IMO. Why pay $8M for Jeromy Burnitz (or whomever) to gain you half a win? I see a divide coming, if not already here, but I think it’s teams being smarter with how they spend their money. Especially with spending limited on rookies and international players, I think it’s going to start to turn into more of an NFL model - you take advantage of them being cheap young so you can pay the star, but then you dump the star early to mid 30s (especially since with no more greenies, careers are getting shorter). Then let someone else pay for their decline or they settle for less. I don’t think we see many more Albert Pujols type deals or the middling replacement player making eight figures. Teams have realized it makes more sense to pay a Trout an extra $5M (or whatever) while he’s in his prime to keep him locked in and happy than to pay a utility guy that when they can call up a rookie or sign a guy that knows that’s his role. As stated, I see there being a low end and a high end with the middle being more void. It’s only my opinion, but i don’t think it’s collusion or inflation; I think it’s a change in philosophy.
I don't disagree, but I would imagine some GMs will see that as betting too hard on one horse. If you're high paid FA or FAs bust/get injured, you will have trouble building depth. IOW, does your perspective consider the alternative of going for more $5-$10M (or even $15M) AAV signings and having a deep roster? This is obviously a thought exercise and the devil is in the details, but I think with the varied landscape of owners and payroll, there will always be different strategies whereas in the NFL with the hard cap, there are a couple of tried and true models that are replicable, albeit difficult because they rely on hard to achieve premises. For example, getting and utilizing a franchise cornerstone on a rookie contract (e.g. Wilson, Goff, etc.) or going all in on defense and scraping by with a mediocre offense (e.g. Broncos, Ravens).
 

Plympton91

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Of course they aren’t anything new nor was I suggesting that. But $40M contracts are beyond normal inflation. People are citing collusion when it’s a market adjustment, IMO. Why pay $8M for Jeromy Burnitz (or whomever) to gain you half a win? I see a divide coming, if not already here, but I think it’s teams being smarter with how they spend their money. Especially with spending limited on rookies and international players, I think it’s going to start to turn into more of an NFL model - you take advantage of them being cheap young so you can pay the star, but then you dump the star early to mid 30s (especially since with no more greenies, careers are getting shorter). Then let someone else pay for their decline or they settle for less. I don’t think we see many more Albert Pujols type deals or the middling replacement player making eight figures. Teams have realized it makes more sense to pay a Trout an extra $5M (or whatever) while he’s in his prime to keep him locked in and happy than to pay a utility guy that when they can call up a rookie or sign a guy that knows that’s his role. As stated, I see there being a low end and a high end with the middle being more void. It’s only my opinion, but i don’t think it’s collusion or inflation; I think it’s a change in philosophy.
This change in philosophy would quickly be proven inefficient, I think. The Red Sox 2013 strategy is the obvious counter example. One team’s Jeremy Burnitz is another team’s Shane Victorino. And 2013 Stephen Drew can be 2014 Stephen Drew.

But, not taking those risks on the veterans is a good way to ensure you lose in both 2013 and 2014.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I meant in a more "macro" sense. As in, a mid market team or shitty team spending money that isn't going to make a difference at the end of the day, well, instead of spending a decent chunk of money trying to make their fan base think they're "competing" instead bank that to make a bigger splash the following year or down the road. A team like the Sox or other competitors can get real value out of spending that money for a guy that might make a difference in the standing, sure; and sure, you're gonna get your occasional hit like Victorino, but that was also kind of like a blind squirrel finding a nut. How'd the rest of that contract turn out?

I used Burnitz specifically as an example/poster boy because the Pirates in 2006 signed him to a $6M deal coming off a .3 WAR season, actually giving him a 33% raise for that right. That was 13% of their entire payroll on a 37 yo OF who hadn't done any better than 1.3 WAR in 5 years and ended up being worth -.7 WAR - and yes, I understand WAR wasn't all that acknowledged at that point and the rate "per" WAR has changed, but what was the point of that? He was a 37 yo journeyman, they weren't winning anything by adding him and they would have been better off spending the money elsewhere. I think the landscape has changed and we will see more teams in that boat save that money so they can make a splash once the have a young base in place, i.e. the Padres to add pieces to that (i.e. Hosmer, Machado); and more teams not blowing that money and tanking while they save up, i.e. the Astros or Cubs.

Maybe I'm overthinking it, but we've seen it happen in the NBA and NFL where a bit of a caste system has developed. And if premiere players in MLB are going to be signing for $30M and good but not great guys like a Hosmer or a Porcello are signing for $20M, there's not room for a Shane Victorino to make $13M on a lark these days.
 

jon abbey

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That's just Heyman carrying Boras' water to try to make it seem like PHI has some real competition for him, the SD beat writer I linked in the SD thread I just started says they're out on Harper.
 

Plympton91

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2/$21M to the Twins is not what I'd have guessed for a guy whose market was reported to be "everyone but one team" three months ago.
He’s a guy who I could see sitting out there because he was asking for too much money and too many years. The Twins have a really good set of position players now. If they get any pitching they could challenge the Indians.
 

Wingack

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He’s a guy who I could see sitting out there because he was asking for too much money and too many years. The Twins have a really good set of position players now. If they get any pitching they could challenge the Indians.
Don’t sleep on the Twins. They’ve had a nice offseason and I feel like the Indians could fall apart this year.
 

jon abbey

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Dan Federico has been all over a lot of the deals early this winter, including Manny to SD. He says:

"Hearing Bryce Harper to Philly is nearing the finish line. Money ended up being the deciding factor. Phillies will turn their attention to pitching next

Don’t be surprised if this deal ends up for 10 years and around $350 million"

 

jon abbey

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I think that’s because there have been a lot of rumors the last few days that he didn’t want to go to Philly, which has to thrill those fans if he ends up there.
 

DanoooME

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I think that’s because there have been a lot of rumors the last few days that he didn’t want to go to Philly, which has to thrill those fans if he ends up there.
They already hate him from the Washington years. He'll probably get a standing ovation in the home opener before his first PA and then if he strikes out, he'll get booed mercilessly.
 

E5 Yaz

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I wonder whether Heyman (who's still pushing the "there's another team involved" propaganda) knows that he's seen as Boras's toady
 

Danny_Darwin

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I think that’s because there have been a lot of rumors the last few days that he didn’t want to go to Philly, which has to thrill those fans if he ends up there.
Obviously there have been a million stray rumors, but I did read somewhere - can’t find it now - that he was hoping the Dodgers would be involved because he liked the idea of playing near Vegas. And, like everyone else, I think he was expecting that they would be interested, but they weren’t (which I still don’t get, but whatever). Note how two other California teams got publicly involved after the Pollock signing meant LA was out of it.

It does seem at this point like he and/or Boras is hoping a Mystery Team will swoop in. It’s reminiscent a little of the JD Martinez situation last year. That worked out pretty well for everyone, so maybe Boras knows what he’s doing?
 

jon abbey

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That worked out pretty well for everyone, so maybe Boras knows what he’s doing?
Sometimes he does, sometimes he gets lucky, and sometime he badly miscalculates like when he was asking teams for 4/56 or more for Marwin Gonzalez (reported by Olney again today), teams moved on, and he ended up only getting 2/21.
 

dcmissle

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Sometimes he does, sometimes he gets lucky, and sometime he badly miscalculates like when he was asking teams for 4/56 or more for Marwin Gonzalez (reported by Olney again today), teams moved on, and he ended up only getting 2/21.
Here’s a good piece by Tom Boswell on the Harper-Boras dealings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/nationals/bryce-harper-and-scott-boras-are-on-the-verge-of-the-least-satisfying-nine-figure-deal-ever/2019/02/22/3373f86c-36d7-11e9-854a-7a14d7fec96a_story.html

I think he’s right. If Harper really wanted Philly, he’d be signed by now. And he probably really wants Washington — but unless a 93 year old owner steps in at the last minute, the door is closed. The owner’s son and the team’s GM made this clear weeks ago — we’ve moved on.

The least satisfying nine-figure deal ever about captures it.
 

E5 Yaz

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A three-year, $100M deal somewhere else would get Harper to FA again before 30. It'd be a risk, but might be worth it
 

jon abbey

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My impression is that WAS wanted to move on all along and their $300M offer (with a bunch of deferred money, as they like to do) was only made because WAS knew Harper/Boras would turn it down, to look better for their fans.

WAS has a bunch of other guys they need to pay soon as Boswell details in the linked piece, and were never probably too excited about throwing $300M+ at a guy who essentially took the year off defensively to make sure he didn't get hurt in his contract year and who was the worst defensive OF in MLB as a result, while the highest payroll in the NL Nats missed the playoffs.
 

bosockboy

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Here’s a good piece by Tom Boswell on the Harper-Boras dealings.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/sports/nationals/bryce-harper-and-scott-boras-are-on-the-verge-of-the-least-satisfying-nine-figure-deal-ever/2019/02/22/3373f86c-36d7-11e9-854a-7a14d7fec96a_story.html

I think he’s right. If Harper really wanted Philly, he’d be signed by now. And he probably really wants Washington — but unless a 93 year old owner steps in at the last minute, the door is closed. The owner’s son and the team’s GM made this clear weeks ago — we’ve moved on.

The least satisfying nine-figure deal ever about captures it.
Has a stench of “Fine, I’ll take your money.”